Annual variation in the nocturnal nekton assemblage of a tropical estuary     

Norman J. Quinn  Barbara L. Kojis 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》1985,21(4):511-537

A nocturnal demersal nekton assemblage was sampled fortnightly for two years at five sites in the Labu estuary using a 3 m beam trawl with a 3·2 cm mesh net. Forty-eight species were caught, totalling 31 458 individuals with the five most abundant species comprising over 95% of the catch. Using multiple regression techniques with Fourier transformations, the mean number of species, S, the mean abundance, N, and mean weight, W, were found to conform to a regular annual cycle with maxima in April and May. Seven of the 11 most abundant species demonstrated regular annual cycles of abundance. S, N and W were greatest in the wider, middle sites and lowest in a shallow, stagnant side branch of the estuary. Catch weights and abundances were significantly correlated with physical data.Salinity and temperature values in the estuary exhibited an annual cycle with maxima occurring in February/March. The annual thermal variation of surface water outside the estuary followed a similar cycle. The salinity at the mouth of the Markham River is lowest during January/February, which corresponds with the rainy season in the Markham River catchment. Significant annual variation existed between years in estuarine bottom salinity and salinity values in Labu Bay.Several species exhibited a greater variation in abundance and mass between years than within years. This supports the hypothesis that in the tropics between-year variation in coastal marine biotic communities is greater than within-year variation.  相似文献   

Short-run forecasting of United States coal production     

Manouchehr Vaziri  John Hutchinson 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》1987,5(4):419-432

Summary This paper focuses on short-range modelling and forecasting of aggregate US monthly coal production. The 1976–83 time-series data suggest a multiplicative autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to replicate national level monthly coal production. The identified model required 12-month seasonal differencing and has an autoregressive component of lag 1 and a moving average component of lag 12. Model predictions for 1984 were very reasonable when compared with actual production: cyclical patterns were correctly replicated and the deterministic increasing trend was properly identified. The estimated model was enhanced by updating it with data for 1984. Intervention analysis was used to determine the impact of labour negotiations in coal production. Information relative to the identified ARIMA model was then used to model the intervening event of labour negotiations. Intervention modelling produced forecasts for 1984 superior to those identified by the ARIMA model. The mean predicted 1984 US monthly coal production of 1976–84 ARIMA and intervention models were 96.05 and 99.65% of the observed value of 74 178 thousand short tons per month, respectively. Simplicity of the ARIMA and intervention models, the realiability of their predictions, and the ease of updating make them very attractive when compared with large scale econometric models for use in short-term coal production forecasting.  相似文献   

Modelling the Mixing Function to Constrain Coseismic Hydrochemical Effects: An Example from the French Pyrénées     

Jean-Paul Toutain  Margot Munoz  Jean-Louis Pinaud  Stéphanie Levet  Matthieu Sylvander  Alexis Rigo  Jocelyne Escalier 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2006,163(4):723-744

Groundwater coseismic transient anomalies are evidenced and characterized by modelling the mixing function F characteristic of the groundwater dynamics in the Ogeu (western French Pyrénées) seismic context. Investigations of water-rock interactions at Ogeu indicate that these mineral waters from sedimentary environments result from the mixing of deep waters with evaporitic signature with surficial karstic waters. A 3-year hydrochemical monitoring of Ogeu springwater evidences that using arbitrary thresholds constituted by the mean ± 1 or 2σ, as often performed in such studies, is not a suitable approach to characterize transient anomalies. Instead, we have used a mixing function F calculated with chemical elements, which display a conservative behavior not controlled by the precipitation of a mineral phase. F is processed with seismic energy release (E_s) and effective rainfalls (R). Linear impulse responses of F to E_s and R have been calculated. Rapid responses (10 days) to rainwater inputs are evidenced, consisting in the recharge of the shallow karstic reservoir by fresh water. Complex impulse response of F to microseismic activity is also evidenced. It consists in a 2-phase hydrologic signal, with an inflow of saline water in the shallow reservoir with a response delay of 10 days, followed by an inflow of karstic water with a response delay of 70 days, the amount being higher than the saline inflow. Such a process probably results from changes in volumetric strain with subsequent microfracturation transient episodes allowing short inflow of deep salted water in the aquifer. This study demonstrates that groundwater systems in such environments are unstable systems that are highly sensitive to both rainfall inputs and microseismic activity. Impulse responses calculation of F to E_s is shown to be a powerful tool to identify transient anomalies. Similar processing is suggested to be potentially efficient to detect precursors of earthquakes when long time-series (5 years at least) are available in areas with high seismicity.  相似文献   

尼泊尔M8.1地震震前卫星重力场时变特征     

邹正波  李辉  吴云龙  吴桂桔  康开轩 《大地测量与地球动力学》2015,35(4):547-551

利用多年GRACE卫星重力变化资料,给出尼泊尔及周缘地区的重力场时空变化,以探索2015-04-25尼泊尔M8.1地震震前重力变化特征;并基于球形位错理论,利用断层模型数据模拟同震重力场变化。研究表明,区域重力场变化以2008年为界存在明显的分时段特征,2003~2008年以重力增加为主,而2009~2014年以重力减少为主;且存在明显的分区性,区域重力场在尼泊尔地震震中四周呈正负相间分布;震前局部重力场变化在压缩区重力增加,拉张区重力减少,与理论同震重力变化结果一致。总结研究区域近年来M7.0以上地震震前重力变化特征发现,地震基本发生在重力变化高梯度带的过渡带及重力变化零值线附近。  相似文献   

Linking land cover dynamics with driving forces in mountain landscape of the Northwestern Iberian Peninsula     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2015

The mountainous areas of the northwestern Iberian Peninsula have undergone intense land abandonment. In this work, we wanted to determine if the abandonment of the rural areas was the main driver of landscape dynamics in Gerês–Xurés Transboundary Biosphere Reserve (NW Iberian Peninsula), or if other factors, such as wildfires and the land management were also directly affecting these spatio-temporal dynamics. For this purpose, we used earth observation data acquired from Landsat TM and ETM + satellite sensors, complemented by ancillary data and prior field knowledge, to evaluate the land use/land cover changes in our study region over a 10-year period (2000–2010). The images were radiometrically calibrated using a digital elevation model to avoid cast- and self-shadows and different illumination effects caused by the intense topographic variations in the study area. We applied a maximum likelihood classifier, as well as other five approaches that provided insights into the comparison of thematic maps. To describe the land cover changes we addressed the analysis from a multilevel approach in three areas with different regimes of environmental protection. The possible impact of wildfires was assessed from statistical and spatially explicit fire data. Our findings suggest that land abandonment and forestry activities are the main factors causing the changes in landscape patterns. Specifically, we found a strong decrease of the ‘meadows and crops’ and ‘sparse vegetation areas’ in favor of woodlands and scrublands. In addition, the huge impact of wildfires on the Portuguese side have generated new ‘rocky areas’, while on the Spanish side its impact does not seem to have been a decisive factor on the landscape dynamics in recent years. We conclude rural exodus of the last century, differences in land management and fire suppression policies between the two countries and the different protection schemes could partly explain the different patterns of changes recorded in these covers.  相似文献   

Using survey data independently from commercial data in stock assessment: an example using haddock in ICES Division VIa     

Beare  D.J.; Needle  C.L.; Burns  F.; Reid  D.G. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2005,62(5):996-1005

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1982-2013年青藏高原植被动态变化时序分析     

赵紫薇 《测绘科学》2017,42(6)

针对不同的数据源及时间和空间尺度会使植被覆盖度及其与气象因子影响的结果有所差别这一情况,该文基于青藏高原1982-2012年GIMMS NDVI和2001-2013年MODIS NDVI遥感数据集,结合研究区内12个典型的气象站点数据,进行了青藏高原地区植被覆盖时空动态变化规律及其与气象因子响应的时序分析,并利用重合时间段的数据对比分析了两种传感器在青藏高原地区对植被动态变化监测方面的差异.结果表明:近30年来,青藏高原地区植被呈整体改善趋势,尤其是高海拔地区;不同阶段植被的变化趋势有所不同;两种传感器在反映植被动态变化趋势上差异显著,但两者与气候因子的响应规律相同.  相似文献   

Contrasts in sedimentation flux below the southern California Current in late 1996 and during the El Niño event of 1997–1998     

Norman Silverberg  Aida Martínez  Sergio Aguíiga  Jos D. Carriquiry  Nancy Romero  Evgeni Shumilin  Soledad Cota 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2004,59(4):575-587

The vertical flux of particulate matter at 330 m depth in San Lázaro Basin off southern Baja California ranged from 63 to 587 mg m⁻² d⁻¹ between August and November 1996. Organic carbon contents were between 5.6 and 14.8%, yielding flux rates of 9–40 mgC m⁻² d⁻¹. In December 1997 and January 1998, at the height of the strong El Niño event, the respective fluxes (47–202 mg m⁻² d⁻¹ and 3–8 mgC m⁻² d⁻¹) were comparable. The February–June 1998 records, however, revealed sharply reduced mass (1–6 mg m⁻² d⁻¹) and organic carbon (0.2–0.8 mgC m⁻² d⁻¹) fluxes. The organics collected in 1996 were predominantly autochthonous (δ¹³C=−22‰; C/N=8). The variations in δ¹⁵N (8.3–11.0‰) suggest an alternation of new and regenerated production, possibly associated with fluctuations in the intensity of deep mixing during that autumn. The relatively high organic matter fluxes in December 1997 appear to be associated with regenerated production. The average composition from February to June 1998 (δ¹³C=−23.6‰; ¹⁵N=11.7‰; C/N=10.5) indicates degraded material of marine origin. The maximum δ¹⁵N value found (14‰) suggests that deeper, denitrified waters were brought to the surface and possibly advected laterally. Regime changes in the waters of the basin occur at 6–10 week intervals, evidenced by concurrent shifts in most of the measured parameters, including fecal pellet types and metal chemistry. The marine snow-dominated detritus collected showed a shift from a mixed diatom-rich-radiolarian-coccolith assemblage in late 1996 to a coccolith-dominated assemblage, including the contents of fecal pellets, during the 1997–1998 El-Niño period. T–S profiles, plankton analysis and chlorophyll contents of the upper water column indicated that the strong phytoplankton bloom, normally associated with seasonal upwelling along the Pacific coast of Baja, did not occur during the spring of 1998. The persistence of oligotrophic conditions during the 1997–1998 El Niño event favored the dominance of nanoplankton and reduced the vertical flux of particles.  相似文献   

基坑水平变形预测技术   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

王有良  钟来星 《测绘科学》2008,33(5)

介绍用指数平滑模型与时序分析方法对基坑的水平变形预测技术,并随着新数据的加入适时修改平滑系数预测变形值。工程实例研究表明:该方法与单独指数平滑模型相比可使预测值与实际位移值之间的误差更小,与曲线拟合技术相比更加稳定。  相似文献   

Dark times for dageraad Chrysoblephus cristiceps: evidence for stock collapse     

D Parker  H Winker  CG Attwood  SE Kerwath 《African Journal of Marine Science》2016,38(3):341-349

The declaration of a state of emergency in the South African linefishery in 2000 has had a positive impact on a few overexploited endemic seabreams (Family Sparidae). However, the population of the reef-dwelling dageraad Chrysoblephus cristiceps has been unresponsive to progressively stricter management regulations. After decades of unsustainable fishing mortality the species is in a critical state. In this paper, a method based on standardised probability of capture is used to develop an index of relative abundance for rare species, such as dageraad, which is more robust to changes in output control regulations than conventional methods. The results show a severe decline in dageraad capture probability in the south-west region of South Africa, from 8% in 1985 to <0.1% in 2011. The east region experienced a more rapid decline, from 24% in 1999 to <0.1% in 2011. A spatial comparison of the distribution of historical and recent dageraad probability of capture along the South African coastline indicates a range contraction commonly associated with the collapse of a population. The once-widespread species is now largely limited to a few locations in the Eastern Cape province and dageraad is mostly absent across its former western distribution. Although the historical decline has commonly been attributed to commercial overexploitation, the recreational sector had an estimated 3–5 times greater impact on the dageraad population than the commercial sector in recent years. Given that previous management regulations have been unsuccessful in arresting the decline of dageraad populations, assertive management is necessary to ensure the species’ sustainability. Rehabilitation of dageraad stocks will require a further decrease in fishing mortality, in conjunction with maintaining an appropriate marine protected area (MPA) network.  相似文献