Knowing wildfire risk: Scientific interactions with risk mitigation policy and practice in Victoria,Australia     

《Geoforum》2016

Over the past decade, major landscape wildfires (or ‘bushfires’ in Australia) in fire-prone countries have illustrated the seriousness of this global environmental problem. This natural hazard presents a complex mesh of dynamic factors for those seeking to reduce or manage its costs, as ignitions, hazard behaviour, and the reactions of different human and ecological communities during and after hazard events are all extremely uncertain. But while those at risk of wildfire have been subject to significant research, the social dimensions of its management, including the role of science, have received little attention. This paper reports on a case study of the Barwon-Otway area of Victoria in Australia, a high wildfire risk area that has recently been a pilot site for a new risk mitigation strategy utilising the wildfire simulation model PHOENIX RapidFire. Against simple equations between ‘more science’ and ‘less uncertainty,’ this paper presents results from interviews and a workshop with practitioners to investigate how scientific research interacts with and informs both wildfire policy and practice. We suggest that attending to cultural and social specificities of the application of any technical innovation—such as next generation modelling—raises questions for future research about the roles of narrative, performance, and other knowledges in the sedimentation of science.  相似文献   

Money for nothin’ and coal for free: ‘Technology neutrality’ and biomass development under the Flemish tradable green certificate scheme     

《Geoforum》2016

Recent literature has highlighted the creation of multiple equivalences as an important factor underpinning the rise of market-based mechanisms for environmental regulation. Extending these insights into the field of renewable energy policy, this article focuses on one example of this trend – namely the principle of technology neutrality as applied under the Flemish tradable green certificate scheme – and analyzes the concrete ways in which it has shaped the evolution of the Flemish renewable energy landscape. Concretely, the article shows that technology neutrality played a key role in promoting the uptake of biomass combustion in old coal power plants in Flanders, which led to a number of undesirable outcomes and gave rise to significant opposition. Correcting these shortcomings required a number of policy interventions on the part of the Flemish government that fundamentally moved the scheme away from the principle of technology neutrality and towards a more hybrid RE support system, suggesting that the promotion of technology neutrality was fundamentally misguided. Together with similar experiences from related market-based instruments, this suggests that the promotion of technology neutrality has far-reaching implications for the environmental effectiveness of climate and energy policies. In light of the continued promotion of the principle, the article calls for full recognition of the inherent technological choices that are being made through the promotion of policies that purport to be technology-neutral.  相似文献   

Atmospheric palaeo-CO2 estimates based on the carbon isotope and stomatal data of Cheirolepidiaceae from the Lower Cretaceous of the Jiuquan Basin,Gansu Province     

《Cretaceous Research》2016

The stable carbon isotope compositions and the stomatal parameters (stomatal density and stomatal index) of four Cheirolepidiaceae species, Brachyphyllum ningxiaensis, Brachyphyllum obtusum, Pseudofrenelopsis dalatzensis and Pseudofrenelopsis gansuensis, were analyzed to recover the late Early Cretaceous atmospheric CO₂ levels. The fossil plants were collected from 5 consecutive sedimentary members of the uppermost Zhonggou Formation. Based on the stomatal data, the estimated palaeo-atmospheric CO₂ concentrations in the Jiuquan Basin during the late Early Cretaceous were 1060–882 ppmv based on the carboniferous standardization and were 641–531 ppmv based on the recent standardization; the pCO₂ values present at first a decreasing and then an increasing trend within the sedimentary time of the five members. The δ¹³Cp values based on the 21 Brachyphyllum specimens showed a large variation, which ranged from −20.98‰ to −25.69‰, with an average of −24.2‰. The values also identified a C3 photosynthetic pathway for the Brachyphyllum specimens. The predicted δ¹³Ca values varied from −2.1‰ to −6.38‰, with an average of −5.03‰. These two proxies were irregular within the different members; therefore, the correlation with the change in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations was not significant. Moreover, a water-stressed environment was proposed based on the δ¹³C values of the present fossil plants, a proposal that was also supported by the previous palaeobotanical, palynological and stratigraphical evidence. In the present study, an inconsistent relationship between the stable carbon isotope and the stomata values was apparent, which most likely indicated that the stomata numbers of the plant were more sensitive to the variation in the concentration of the atmospheric CO₂, whereas the δ¹³C values were sensitive to the moisture conditions.  相似文献   

Late Cenomanian environmental conditions at the submerged Tatric Ridge,Central Western Carpathians during the period preceding Oceanic Anoxic Event 2 – A palaeontological and isotopic approach     

《Cretaceous Research》2016

Micropalaeontological and isotopic studies of the upper Cenomanian turbiditic/hemipelagic sediments from the High-Tatric unit (Central Western Carpathians; Polish part of the Tatra Mountains) has been undertaken to characterize the sedimentary conditions in the Tatric basin, a part of the Western Tethys, related to the interval preceding the late Cenomanian oceanic anoxic event (OAE2). The deposition of these sediments, including organic-rich layers (TOC up to 0.7%), corresponds to the Rotalipora cushmani foraminiferal Zone. Microfacial, foraminiferal and palynological analyses show that the sea floor was located at upper bathyal depths and the water column was poorly oxygenated. The intrabasinal carbonate material indicates moderate primary productivity with rare periods of upwellings. The scarcity of marine fossils in redeposited material and features of carbonate lithoclasts suggest very low productivity in the nearshore surface water, most probably due to a low-density hyposaline cap as surface runoff from the southern margin of the basin. The carbon isotopic study documents the negative values of δ¹³C_carb in the whole section as an effect of transfer of isotopically light carbon sourced from various sources. Such negative values of δ¹³C_carb are characteristic of the upper Cenomanian sediments, deposited in relatively shallow water basins, characterized by input of terrestrial organic matter and/or carbonate particles known from the Western Interior sections, the Atlantic coastal plain, the northwestern African margin, the eastern margin of the Apulian Platform and shelf sediments in the NW Europe and Tethyan Himalayas. Most probably, all of these events could be related to the global sea level fluctuations that occurred ca. 95.5–94.5 Ma comparing with the Haq (2014) eustatic curve.  相似文献   

Modelling complex systems of heterogeneous agents to better design sustainability transitions policy     

《Global Environmental Change》2016

This article proposes a fundamental methodological shift in the modelling of policy interventions for sustainability transitions in order to account for complexity (e.g. self-reinforcing mechanisms, such as technology lock-ins, arising from multi-agent interactions) and agent heterogeneity (e.g. differences in consumer and investment behaviour arising from income stratification). We first characterise the uncertainty faced by climate policy-makers and its implications for investment decision-makers. We then identify five shortcomings in the equilibrium and optimisation-based approaches most frequently used to inform sustainability policy: (i) their normative, optimisation-based nature, (ii) their unrealistic reliance on the full-rationality of agents, (iii) their inability to account for mutual influences among agents (multi-agent interactions) and capture related self-reinforcing (positive feedback) processes, (iv) their inability to represent multiple solutions and path-dependency, and (v) their inability to properly account for agent heterogeneity. The aim of this article is to introduce an alternative modelling approach based on complexity dynamics and agent heterogeneity, and explore its use in four key areas of sustainability policy, namely (1) technology adoption and diffusion, (2) macroeconomic impacts of low-carbon policies, (3) interactions between the socio-economic system and the natural environment, and (4) the anticipation of policy outcomes. The practical relevance of the proposed methodology is subsequently discussed by reference to four specific applications relating to each of the above areas: the diffusion of transport technology, the impact of low-carbon investment on income and employment, the management of cascading uncertainties, and the cross-sectoral impact of biofuels policies. In conclusion, the article calls for a fundamental methodological shift aligning the modelling of the socio-economic system with that of the climatic system, for a combined and realistic understanding of the impact of sustainability policies.  相似文献   

GDP and employment effects of policies to close the 2020 emissions gap     

Terry Barker  Eva Alexandri  Jean-Francois Mercure  Yuki Ogawa  Hector Pollitt 《Climate Policy》2016,16(4):393-414

Four policies might close the gap between the global GHG emissions expected for 2020 on the basis of current (2013) policies and the reduced emissions that will be needed if the long-term global temperature increase can be kept below the 2 °C internationally agreed limit. The four policies are (1) specific energy efficiency measures, (2) closure of the least-efficient coal-fired power plants, (3) minimizing methane emissions from upstream oil and gas production, and (4) accelerating the (partial) phase-out of subsidies to fossil-fuel consumption. In this article we test the hypothesis of the International Energy Agency (IEA) that these policies will not result in a loss of gross domestic product (GDP) and we estimate their employment effects using the E3MG global macro-econometric model. Using a set of scenarios we assess each policy individually and then consider the outcomes if all four policies were implemented simultaneously. We find that the policies are insufficient to close the emissions gap, with an overall emission reduction that is 30% less than that found by the IEA. World GDP is 0.5% higher in 2020, with about 6 million net jobs created by 2020 and unemployment reduced.

Policy relevance

The gap between GHG emissions expected under the Copenhagen and Cancun Agreements and that needed for emissions trajectories to have a reasonable chance of reaching the 2 °C target requires additional policies if it is to be closed. This article uses a global simulation model E3MG to analyse a set of policies proposed by the IEA to close the gap and assesses their macroeconomic effects as well as their feasibility in closing the gap. It complements the IEA assessment by estimating the GDP and employment implications separately by the different policies year by year to 2020, by major industries, and by 21 world regions.  相似文献   

Comparative assessment of Japan's long-term carbon budget under different effort-sharing principles     

Takeshi Kuramochi  Jusen Asuka  Hanna Fekete  Kentaro Tamura  Niklas Höhne 《Climate Policy》2016,16(8):1029-1047

This article assesses Japan's carbon budgets up to 2100 in the global efforts to achieve the 2?°C target under different effort-sharing approaches based on long-term GHG mitigation scenarios published in 13 studies. The article also presents exemplary emission trajectories for Japan to stay within the calculated budget.

The literature data allow for an in-depth analysis of four effort-sharing categories. For a 450?ppm CO₂e stabilization level, the remaining carbon budgets for 2014–2100 were negative for the effort-sharing category that emphasizes historical responsibility and capability. For the other three, including the reference ‘Cost-effectiveness’ category, which showed the highest budget range among all categories, the calculated remaining budgets (20th and 80th percentile ranges) would run out in 21–29 years if the current emission levels were to continue. A 550?ppm CO₂e stabilization level increases the budgets by 6–17 years-equivalent of the current emissions, depending on the effort-sharing category. Exemplary emissions trajectories staying within the calculated budgets were also analysed for ‘Equality’, ‘Staged’ and ‘Cost-effectiveness’ categories. For a 450?ppm CO₂e stabilization level, Japan's GHG emissions would need to phase out sometime between 2045 and 2080, and the emission reductions in 2030 would be at least 16–29% below 1990 levels even for the most lenient ‘Cost-effectiveness’ category, and 29–36% for the ‘Equality’ category. The start year for accelerated emissions reductions and the emissions convergence level in the long term have major impact on the emissions reduction rates that need to be achieved, particularly in the case of smaller budgets.

Policy relevance

In previous climate mitigation target formulation processes for 2020 and 2030 in Japan, neither equity principles nor long-term management of cumulative GHG emissions was at the centre of discussion. This article quantitatively assesses how much more GHGs Japan can emit by 2100 to achieve the 2?°C target in light of different effort-sharing approaches, and how Japan's GHG emissions can be managed up to 2100. The long-term implications of recent energy policy developments following the Fukushima nuclear disaster for the calculated carbon budgets are also discussed.  相似文献   

青藏高原晚始新世干旱化事件：改则盆地康托组碳酸盐岩碳氧同位素的记录     

姜高磊  徐亚东  宋博文  张克信  罗亮 《地质学报》2016,90(8):2023-2034

改则盆地位于青藏高原腹地,盆地内沉积物记录了高原古环境变化的重要信息。本文对改则盆地康托组碳酸盐岩碳氧同位素进行研究,结果显示改则盆地中-晚始新世的演化分为两个阶段:1中始新世湿润气候下开放湖盆阶段:虽然碳酸盐岩δ~(18)O值在43层处向正值偏移,但整体~(18)O和~(13)C强烈亏损,并且该时期碳酸盐岩δ~(18)O值和δ~(13)C变化相关系数为R~2=0.082。表明该阶段的研究区虽然经历过短期蒸发作用增强或补给水减少,但整体是气候湿润条件下补给水丰富的开放型湖盆。2晚始新世干旱气候下封闭湖盆阶段:经过中新世晚期(63层)气候和湖泊水文状态的过渡,晚始新世~(18)O和~(13)C同位素富集,δ~(18)O值和δ~(13)C值变化相关系数为R~2=0.7762。表明该阶段气候干旱,蒸发作用强烈,湖盆萎缩成为封闭湖盆。综合前人研究,认为青藏高原腹地及北缘、东北缘在晚始新世存在明显的区域性干旱化事件。对比分析青藏高原隆升、全球气候记录、全球海水Sr和大气CO_2记录,认为青藏高原腹地和北部的干旱化事件主要受青藏高原隆升的影响。  相似文献   

Study on the Global Carbon Assimilation System Based on Multisource Remote Sensing Data     

Ju Weimin  Fang Hongliang  Tian Xiangjun  Jiang Fei  Zhan Wenfeng  Liu Yang  Wang Zhengxing  He Jianfeng  Wang Shaoqiang  Peng Shushi  Zhang Yongguang  Zhou Yanlian  Jia Binghao  Yang Dongxu  Fu Yu  Li Rong  Liu Jingxian  Wang Haikun  Li Guicai  Chen Zhuoqi 《地球科学进展》2016,31(11):1105-1110

The Paris agreement signed in April, 2016 aims to balance global anthropogenic carbon emissions and terrestrial carbon sinks by the middle of the 21^st century. To fulfill this goal, it is necessary to calculate carbon fluxes of different regions reliably. The global carbon assimilation system is an effective technique for achieving this goal. The Ministry of Science and Technology of China supports the project entitled as study on the global carbon assimilation system based on multisource remote sensing data through the national key research and development programs for global change and adaptation during the thirteen-five period. This project will develop synergic inversion techniques for retrieving key parameters of biological and atmospheric cycles and for assimilating multisource remote sensing and ground based data. Then, the high resolution global carbon assimilation system coupled with an ecological model will be constructed. This system is able to assimilate jointly multisource observation data and to optimize key model parameters, photosynthesis and respiration carbon fluxes of global terrestrial ecosystems, and anthropogenic carbon emission fluxes of key regions. This system will be used to study quantitatively the spatial and temporal patterns of carbon fluxes of global terrestrial ecosystems and anthropogenic carbon emission fluxes of key regions and to identify the mechanisms driving the global terrestrial carbon sinks and sources. The outputs of this study will be helpful for the fulfillment of the key research and development programs for global change and adaptation and provide valuable data and technical support for the decision-making in China.  相似文献   

Comparative Study of the Carbon Emission Situation and Goals between China and India     

Yang Zhanhong  Luo Hong  Xue Jie  Zhang Baoliu 《地球科学进展》2016,31(7):764-773

As the two large developing and populous countries, China and India face the dual challenges of economic development and climate change. Both of them are active in carbon emissions reduction, while India also bears the pressure of being “benchmarked” against China. With taking China and India as the sample of a comparative analysis, and the statistical value of a long sequence as the basic analysis data, based on the detailed analysis and comparison of carbon emissions history, the carbon emissions situation of the two countries from various dimensions including economic development, energy reserves and consumption, etc. were comparatively analyzed. The carbon intensity and energy structure after achieving the objectives were measured and compared by focusing on the carbon emissions reduction targets in China and India. The comparative results show that: China’s total carbon emissions are greater than India’s, but the growth rate of emissions, per capita emissions are significantly lower than India’s, while the carbon intensity decreases significantly faster than that of India. China has taken more efforts to make commitments to carbon reduction than India. With India’s energy structure adjustment, the situation will be gradually better than that in China.  相似文献