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991.
ABSTRACTForest and agricultural sector response to comprehensive climate policy is well represented in the literature. Less analysis has been devoted to piecemeal solutions. We use the Forest and Agriculture Sector Optimization Model with Greenhouse Gases (FASOMGHG) to project the individual and combined effect of three existing U.S. Department of Agriculture programmes with potential to increase greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation. We find that a combined policy scenario may achieve greater mitigation than individual constituent programmes, suggesting the possibility of complementary spillover effects in some periods. Mitigation varies over time, however, and some periods experience net emissions as markets and management practices respond to initial policy shocks. The regional distribution of GHG mitigation also varies between policy scenario. Differences in the magnitude and imputed cost of mitigation under each scenario, generating negative values for some programmes and time periods, reinforces the need to evaluate portfolio design to cost-effectively achieve near-term GHG mitigation.Key policy insights
Increased near-term GHG mitigation in the forest and agriculture sectors in the US may be possible by expanding or refocusing the emphasis of existing programmes.
Implementing several such forest and agricultural programmes simultaneously may lead to greater GHG mitigation than when implemented separately, indicating the possibility of positive spillover effects.
Programmes targeted to agricultural management may hold outsized potential to achieve near-term GHG mitigation; Policies aimed at influencing land use conversion appear to be more vulnerable to reversion and subject to larger inter-annual swings.
The staged implementation of programmes could also be useful, helping to encourage increased mitigation (or the retention of already achieved mitigation) over time as markets re-equilibrate to initial shocks.
Though the particular scenarios assessed here are unique to the US, our findings may be applicable to other locations outside the US where land management is influenced by individual market actors and there is competition between forest and agricultural land uses.
992.
Ellycia R. Harrould-Kolieb 《Climate Policy》2013,13(10):1225-1238
ABSTRACTOcean acidification is most frequently framed by the scientific community as a concurrent threat to climate change, rather than an effect of it. This separation of the two phenomena has long been deemed as a way of garnering heightened policy attention for ocean acidification rather than having it bound up in the often contested politics of climate change. This effort, however, appears to have resulted in the inadvertent placing of ocean acidification outside of the mandate of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This has created a significant gap in the global governance of this issue with no multilateral agreement understood as having jurisdiction over the mitigation of rising ocean acidity. For these reasons this paper argues that an alternative framing of ocean acidification as an effect of climate change is warranted. This would include ocean acidification in the core obligations of the Convention, thereby filling the mitigation governance gap and avoiding perverse implementation outcomes. It is contended that interpreting the UNFCCC in this way is more consistent with its objective and purpose than the existing interpretations that place ocean acidification beyond the remit of the Convention.Key policy insights
Ocean acidification is best understood as an effect of climate change in the context of the UNFCCC, and therefore is included in its obligations to combat climate change and its adverse effects.
An obligation to address ocean acidification has implications for the way that the provisions of the Convention, particularly on mitigation, are implemented. Mitigation activities that exacerbate ocean acidification or lead to emission reduction pathways that do not prevent dangerous acidification should be deemed inconsistent with the Convention.
Protection, conservation and restoration of coastal and marine ecosystems should become a priority area for action within the UNFCCC.
993.
《Climate Policy》2013,13(4):395-396
In 2007 the US Congress began considering a set of bills to implement a cap-and-trade system to limit the nation's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM)—and its economic component, the Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model—were used to assess these proposals. In the absence of policy, the EPPA model projects a doubling of US greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Global emissions, driven by growth in developing countries, are projected to increase even more. Unrestrained, these emissions would lead to an increase in global CO2 concentration from a current level of 380 ppmv to about 550 ppmv by 2050 and to near 900 ppmv by 2100, resulting in a year 2100 global temperature 3.5–4.5°C above the current level. The more ambitious of the Congressional proposals could limit this increase to around 2°C, but only if other nations, including developing countries, also strongly controlled greenhouse gas emissions. With these more aggressive reductions, the economic cost measured in terms of changes in total welfare in the United States could range from 1.5% to almost 2% by the 2040–2050 period, with 2015 CO2-equivalent prices between $30 and $55, rising to between $120 and $210 by 2050. This level of cost would not seriously affect US GDP growth but would imply large-scale changes in its energy system. 相似文献
994.
《Climate Policy》2013,13(2-3):211-230
Abstract In this paper we argue that the discussion on how to get to an equitable global climate change regime requires a long-term context. Some key dimensions of this discussion are responsibility, capability and development needs. Each of these, separately or in combination, has been used in designing schemes for differentiation of commitments to limit or reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Many implementation problems of these proposals are often side-stepped. In particular, some proposals may be incompatible with Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), i.e. they are unlikely to keep the option open of long-term stabilisation of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at relatively low levels. We present some evidence that shifting the emphasis from emission reduction to sustainable development needs can contribute significantly to relieving the threat of human-induced climate change. 相似文献
995.
《Climate Policy》2013,13(1):56-70
Oregon's governor has proposed a load-based cap and trade programme that limits carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to 10% below 1990 levels by 2020. A load-based programme is different from the source-based European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), as it regulates emissions sources, located outside the state, that serve Oregon's electricity load. This article describes the stakeholder process that developed the legislative proposal for the load-based cap. The Oregon Clean Energy Planning Model©, a modified capacity expansion model of annual load resource balances, is used to estimate programme costs. The net present value of the climate policy to Oregon ranges from a $518 million benefit to a $414 million cost under various load growth scenarios. Programme benefits are possible under low and medium load growth because the societal returns of energy efficiency exceed its cost over the life of the programme. CO2 allowance prices in 2017–2020 are estimated in the medium case at approximately $21 per tonne. Low energy efficiency deployment could raise allowance costs to $36, while an aggressive efficiency programme could reduce them to $13.50. Competition for Northwest renewable resources could increase allowance prices in final phase to $37, indicating the interdependence in programme design among state climate policies. 相似文献
996.
《Climate Policy》2013,13(5):516-526
This article proposes a shift to a paradigm that is more extensive than the current narrow focus on North—South climate change technology transfers, towards a more inclusive ‘global’ paradigm. An implication of the paradigm shift is that there should be a concomitant expansion of the policy agendas of the international climate and trade regimes. The traditional North—South paradigm of technology transfer ignores the increasing importance of developing countries as sources of advanced climate-friendly technologies, and therefore ignores South—North and South—South transfers. Further, whereas the North—South paradigm has emphasized developing countries' intellectual property rights policies as barriers to technology transfers, the ‘global’ paradigm focuses attention on trade and investment policy barriers, including developed countries' policies that inhibit technology transfer from developing countries. The analysis is relevant to international negotiations in the post-2012 climate regime, and is also relevant to the future development of the trade regime—not only at the multilateral level in the WTO, but also at the regional and bilateral levels. 相似文献
997.
《Climate Policy》2013,13(3):317-336
This article assesses a wide range of alternative proposals for post-2012 international climate policy regimes. We believe that these proposals will serve as a basis for debates about how to configure post-2012 climate policy. The article characterizes and assesses the policy proposals along the lines of five key policy dilemmas. We argue that (1) many proposals have ideas on how to reduce emissions, but fewer have a solution on how to stimulate technical innovation; (2) many proposals formulate climate policy in isolation, while there are fewer proposals that try to mainstream climate policies in other policy areas; (3) many proposals advocate market-based solutions, while fewer realize that there are certain drawbacks to this solution especially at the international level; (4) most proposals have a preference for a UN-based regime, while a more fragmented regime, based on regional and sectoral arrangements may be emerging; and (5) most proposals have ideas about mitigation, but not many have creative ideas on how to integrate mitigation with adaptation. 相似文献
998.
《Climate Policy》2013,13(1):77-88
Abstract The UK climate change programme has introduced a range of instruments to foster investment in low carbon technologies and markets. We estimate the total value of these interventions, in terms of the redirection of financial flows and directly foregone tax income, to be about £1.3 billion per year (c. Euro or US$ 2 billion per year), as from 2002 to 2003 when the renewable obligation certificates (ROCs) first take effect. About 20% of this consists of direct expenditure, the remaining 80% is in the form of indirect expenditures contained within sectors (ROCs, the energy efficiency commitments), and foregone tax revenues. Most of the energy-efficiency investment is estimated to recoup expenditure within normal life-cycles and may thus be considered profitable; the profitability of the supply-side interventions is predicated mostly upon expected cost reductions associated with the build up of the associated industries. 相似文献
999.
《Climate Policy》2013,13(4):421-429
The employment effect of climate policy has emerged as an important concern of policy makers, not least in the USA. Yet the impact of climate policy on jobs is complex. In the short term, jobs will shift from high-carbon activities to low-carbon activities. The net effect could be job creation, as low-carbon technologies tend to be more labour-intensive, at least in the short term until efficiency gains bring down costs. In the medium term, the effect will be felt economy-wide as value chains and production patterns adjust. This effect is more difficult to gauge, particularly if climate policy is unilateral and trade effects have to be taken into account. However, the biggest effect is expected to be long term, when climate policy will trigger widespread structural adjustment. Such episodes of ‘creative destruction’ are often associated with innovation, job creation and growth. 相似文献
1000.
《Climate Policy》2013,13(1):768-788
This article explores the critical role of labour market imperfections in climate stabilization cost formation, using a dynamic recursive energy—economy model that represents a second-best world with market imperfections and short-run adjustment constraints along a long-term growth path. The degree of rigidity of the labour markets is a central parameter, and a systematic sensitivity analysis of the model results confirms this. When labour markets are represented as highly flexible, the model results are in the usual range of the existing literature; that is, less than 2% GDP losses in 2030 for a stabilization target at 550 ppm CO2 equivalent. However, when labour market rigidities are accounted for, mitigation costs increase dramatically. Accompanying measures are identified, namely labour subsidies, which guarantee against the risk of large stabilization costs in the case of high rigidities of the labour markets. This complements the usual view that mitigation is a long-term matter that depends on technology, innovation, investment and behavioural change. The results support the view that mitigation is also a shorter-term issue and a matter of transition with regard to the labour market. 相似文献