Estimating the confidence of earthquake damage scenarios: examples from a logic tree approach   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

S. Molina  C. D. Lindholm 《Journal of Seismology》2007,11(3):299-310

Earthquake loss estimation is now becoming an important tool in mitigation planning, where the loss modeling usually is based on a parameterized mathematical representation of the damage problem. In parallel with the development and improvement of such models, the question of sensitivity to parameters that carry uncertainties becomes increasingly important. We have to this end applied the capacity spectrum method (CSM) as described in FEMA HAZUS-MH. Multi-hazard Loss Estimation Methodology, Earthquake Model, Advanced Engineering Building Module. Federal Emergency Management Agency, United States (2003), and investigated the effects of selected parameters. The results demonstrate that loss scenarios may easily vary by as much as a factor of two because of simple parameter variations. Of particular importance for the uncertainty is the construction quality of the structure. These results represent a warning against simple acceptance of unbounded damage scenarios and strongly support the development of computational methods in which parameter uncertainties are propagated through the computations to facilitate confidence bounds for the damage scenarios.  相似文献   

Rigid‐plastic seismic design of reinforced concrete structures     

J. L. Domingues Costa  R. Bento  Vsevolod Levtchitch  M. P. Nielsen 《地震工程与结构动力学》2007,36(1):55-76

In this paper a new seismic design procedure for Reinforced Concrete (R/C) structures is proposed—the Rigid‐Plastic Seismic Design (RPSD) method. This is a design procedure based on Non‐Linear Time‐ History Analysis (NLTHA) for systems expected to perform in the non‐linear range during a lifetime earthquake event. The theoretical background is the Theory of Plasticity (Rigid‐Plastic Structures). Firstly, a collapse mechanism is chosen and the corresponding stress field is made safe outside the regions where plastic behaviour takes place. It is shown that this allows the determination of the required structural strength with respect to a pre‐defined performance parameter using a rigid‐plastic response spectrum, which is characteristic of the ground motion alone. The maximum strength demand at any point is solely dependent on the intensity of the ground motion, which facilitates the task of distributing required strength throughout the structure. Any artificial considerations intended to adjust results according to empirical observations are avoided, which, from a conceptual point of view, is considered to be an advantage over other simplified design procedures for seismic design. The procedure is formulated using a step‐by‐step format followed by a design example of a 4‐storey‐R/C‐plane‐frame. Results are compared with refined NLTHA and found to be extremely encouraging. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Damage‐based design with no repairs for multiple events and its sensitivity to seismicity model     

S. Das  V. K. Gupta  V. Srimahavishnu 《地震工程与结构动力学》2007,36(3):307-325

Conventional design methodology for the earthquake‐resistant structures is based on the concept of ensuring ‘no collapse’ during the most severe earthquake event. This methodology does not envisage the possibility of continuous damage accumulation during several not‐so‐severe earthquake events, as may be the case in the areas of moderate to high seismicity, particularly when it is economically infeasible to carry out repairs after damaging events. As a result, the structure may collapse or may necessitate large scale repairs much before the design life of the structure is over. This study considers the use of design force ratio (DFR) spectrum for taking an informed decision on the extent to which yield strength levels should be raised to avoid such a scenario. DFR spectrum gives the ratios by which the yield strength levels of single‐degree‐of‐freedom oscillators of different initial periods should be increased in order to limit the total damage caused by all earthquake events during the lifetime to a specified level. The DFR spectra are compared for three different seismicity models in case of elasto‐plastic oscillators: one corresponding to the exponential distribution for return periods of large events and the other two corresponding to the lognormal and Weibull distributions. It is shown through numerical study for a hypothetical seismic region that the use of simple exponential model may be acceptable only for small values of the seismic gap length. For moderately large to large seismic gap lengths, it may be conservative to use the lognormal model, while the Weibull model may be assumed for very large seismic gap lengths. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Seismic microzonation of Dehradun City using geophysical and geotechnical characteristics in the upper 30 m of soil column     

A. K. Mahajan  Siefko Slob  Rajiv Ranjan  Rob Sporry  P. K. Champati ray  Cees J. van Westen 《Journal of Seismology》2007,11(4):355-370

The understanding of geotechnical characteristics of near-surface material is of fundamental interest in seismic microzonation. Shear wave velocity (Vs), one of the most important soil properties for soil response modeling, has been evaluated through seismic profiling using the multichannel analysis of surface waves in the city of Dehradun situated along the foothills of northwest Himalaya. Fifty sites in the city have been investigated with survey lines between 72 and 96 m in length. Multiple 1-D and interpolated 2-D profiles have been generated up to a depth of 30–40 m. The Vs were used in the SHAKE2000 software in combination with seismic input motion of the recent Chamoli earthquake to obtain site response and amplification spectra. The estimated Vs are higher in the northern part of the study area (i.e., 200–700 m/s from the surface to a depth of about 30 m) as compared to the south and southwestern parts of the city (i.e., 180–400 m/s for the same depth range). The response spectra suggest that spectral acceleration values for two-story structures are three to eight times higher than peak ground acceleration at bedrock. The analysis also suggests peak amplification at 3–4, 2–2.5, and 1–1.5 Hz in the northern, central, and south-southwestern parts of the city, respectively. The spatial distributions of Vs and spectral accelerations provide valuable information for the seismic microzonation in different parts of the urban area of Dehradun.  相似文献   

A solar spectrum for PFS data analysis     

Carlo Fiorenza  Vittorio Formisano 《Planetary and Space Science》2005,53(10):1009-1016

A measured calibrated solar radiance in the range 1.2-, with the spectral sampling of does not exist. When studying the measured Planetary Fourier Spectrometer (PFS) spectra of the Earth's or Mars's atmosphere we discover that the most used solar spectrum contains several important errors. Here we present a “calibrated” solar radiance in the wavelength range 1.2-, with the spectral resolution of PFS , which we are going to use for studying Martian spectra. This spectrum has been assembled using measurements from Kitt Peak and from ATMOS Spacelab experiment (uncalibrated high resolution) and theoretical results, together with low resolution calibrated continuum. This is the best we can have in this moment to be used with PFS, while waiting to have good solar calibrated radiances. Examples of solar lines at Mars are given.  相似文献   

Comparative Study of the 2:3 and 3:4 Resonant Motion with Neptune: An Application of Symplectic Mappings and Low Frequency Analysis   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

T. Kotoulas  G. Voyatzis 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2004,88(4):343-363

The 2:3 and 3:4 exterior mean motion resonances with Neptune are studied by applying symplectic mapping models. The mappings represent efficiently Poincaré maps for the 3D elliptic restricted three body problem in the neighbourhood of the particular resonances. A large number of trajectories is studied showing the coexistence of regular and chaotic orbits. Generally, chaotic motion depletes the small bodies of the effective resonant region in both the 2:3 and 3:4 resonances. Applying a low frequency spectral analysis of trajectories, we determined the phase space regions that correspond to either regular or chaotic motion. It is found that the phase space of the 3:4 resonant motion is more chaotic than the 2:3 one.  相似文献   

Digital Spectra and Analysis of Altitudinal Belts in Tianshan Mountains, China     

ZHANGBaiping MOShenguo WUHongzhi XIAOFei 《山地科学学报》2004,1(1):18-28

Based on the framework of the geo-info spectra of montane altitudinal belts, this paper firstly reviews six classification systems for the spectra of mountain altitudinal belts in China and considers that detailed regional study of altitudinal belts is the key for reaching standardization and systemization of mountain altitudinal belts. Only can this further identify and resolve problems with the study of altitudinal belts. The factors forming the spectra of altitudinal belts are analyzed in the Tianshan Mountains of China, and a digital altitudinal belt system is constructed for the northern flank, southern flank, the heartland, and Ili valley in the west. The characteristics of each belt are revealed with a summarization of the pattern of areal differentiation of altitudinal belts.  相似文献   

Spectra of Comet Hale-Bopp (C/1995 O1) Obtained with 6-M BTA Reflector at Mount Pastukhov     

Churyumov  K. I.  Kleshchonok  V. V.  Vlassyuk  V. V. 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》1997,78(1-3):111-117

Between July 1996 and April 1997, 92 spectra of comet Hale-Bopp were obtained with the 6-meter BTA telescope of the SAO of the RAS at Mount Pastukhov. The spectra are two-dimensional, which allows one to determine the energy distribution for each emission along the slit and the energy distribution in wavelength for each individual position in the slit. From the 92 two-dimensional spectra covering the inner coma, detailed spectral maps of the total near-nuclear region of the comet are available for July 10, 11 and 12, 1996 and April 15, 1997. We propose an hypothesis about an unknown cometary species near λ = 620 nm in the spectrum obtained July 10, 1996. We also find an effect which may be caused by fluorescence of cometary dust. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

Representation of near-fault pulse-type ground motions   总被引：7，自引：3，他引：4  

谢礼立  徐龙军Adrian Rodriguez-Marek 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2005,4(2):191-199

Near-fault ground motions with long-period pulses have been identified as critical in the design of structures. To aid in the representation of this special type of motion, eight simple pulses that characterize the effects of either the fling-step or forward-directivity are considered. Relationships between pulse amplitudes and velocity pulse period for different pulses are discussed. Representative ratios and peak acceleration amplification can exhibit distinctive features depending on variations in pulse duration, amplitude and the selected acceleration pulse shape. Additionally, response spectral characteristics for the equivalent pulses are identified and compared in terms of fixed PGA and PGV, respectively. Response spectra are strongly affected by the duration of pulses and the shape of the basic pulses. Finally, dynamic time history response features of a damped SDOF system subjected to pulse excitations are examined. These special aspects of pulse waveforms and their response spectra should be taken into account in the estimation of ground motions for a project site close to a fault.  相似文献   

Averaging Intervals For Spectral Analysis Of Nonstationary Turbulence     

George Treviño  Edgar L. Andreas 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2000,95(2):231-247

We formulate a method for determining the smallest time interval Tover which a turbulence time series can be averaged to decompose it intoinstantaneous mean and random components. From the random part the method defines the optimal interval (or averaging window) AW over which this part should be averaged to obtain the instantaneous spectrum. Both T and AW vary randomly with time and depend on physical properties of the turbulence. T also depends on the accuracy of the measurements and is thus independent of AW. Interesting features of the method are its real-time capability and the non-equality between AW and T.  相似文献