Uncertainty representation of ocean fronts based on fuzzy-rough set theory   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Cunjin Xue  Chenghu Zhou  Fenzhen Su  Dandan Zhang 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2008,7(2):131-136

Analysis of ocean fronts' uncertainties indicates that they result from indiseemibility of their spatial position and fuzzi-ness of their intensity. In view of this, a flow hierarchy for uncertainty representation of ocean fronts is proposed on the basis of fuzzy-rough set theory. Firstly, raster scanning and blurring are carried out on an ocean front, and the upper and lower approximate sets, the indiscernible relation in fuzzy-rough theories and related operators in fuzzy set theories are adopted to represent its uncer-tainties, then they are classified into three sets: with members one hundred pereent belonging to the ocean front, belonging to the ocean front's edge and definitely not belonging to the ocean front. Finally, the approximate precision and roughness degree are util-ized to evaluate the ocean front's degree of uncertainties and the precision of the representation. It has been proven that the method is not only capable of representing ocean fronts' uncertainties, but also provides a new theory and method for uncertainty representation of other oceanic phenomena.  相似文献   

Adaptive fuzzy controller design for dynamic positioning system of vessels     

《Applied Ocean Research》2015

This paper develops an adaptive fuzzy controller for the dynamic positioning (DP) system of vessels with unknown dynamic model parameters and unknown time-varying environmental disturbances. The controller is designed by combining the adaptive fuzzy system with the vectorial backstepping method. An adaptive fuzzy system is employed to approximate the uncertain term induced by unknown dynamic model parameters and unknown time-varying environmental disturbances. It is theoretically proved that the proposed adaptive fuzzy DP controller can make the vessel be maintained at the desired values of its position and heading with arbitrary accuracy, while guaranteeing the uniform ultimate boundedness of all signals in the closed-loop DP control system of vessels. Simulation studies with comparisons on a supply vessel are carried out, and the results illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed control scheme.  相似文献   

The effects of seal-swim activities on the New Zealand fur seal (Arctophoca australis forsteri) in the Bay of Plenty,New Zealand,and recommendations for a sustainable tourism industry     

《Marine Policy》2014

Wildlife tourism (including pinniped tourism) offers people the opportunity to see wildlife in their natural environment. It can provide positive outcomes for the animals, through improved resources for conservation, or negative outcomes, such as inducing the animals to move away. This study assessed the impacts and sustainability of a novel but growing tourism industry, swimming with seals, based on interactions with New Zealand fur seals (Arctophoca australis forsteri) in the Bay of Plenty, New Zealand, between December 2011 and March 2012. The behaviour of all seals in the water (interaction, neutral, and avoidance) was monitored at 1 min intervals, during 16 seal-swim events. Seals mostly ignored the swimmers (54% of records), some interacted with swimmers (41%); seals rarely avoided the swimmers (5%). Interactions peaked in frequency at 6 min into the swims, then declined. They occurred most frequently during December, corresponding with the pupping period when juvenile seals—the age class most likely to interact—are excluded from breeding areas and so spend much of their time in the water. Compliance of tour operators to regulations was also monitored during seal-swim activities and the industry was found to be highly compliant. The results suggest the activities monitored had minimal impact on seals in the water, and are likely to be sustainable in relation to seal conservation. Tourism can be site and time specific, and it is recommended that approaches such as those trialled here be adopted to monitor other wildlife tourism activities to ensure their sustainability. Further research needs to examine potential impacts of the tours on seals ashore.  相似文献   

超浅层顶管施工诱发地表沉降规律分析     

张海生 《岩土钻凿工程》2014,(2):61-66

随着社会化进程的推进,顶管法在各类城市地下管线的施工中得到广泛应用。超浅层顶管施工。绝大多数是在已建道路下进行的,施工时,易发生地表沉降,且沉降量很大,易破坏路面。为此,超浅层顶管施工对周围环境的影响已引起人们足够的重视,其施工及控制技术是目前迫切需要掌握的。利用有限差分软件FLAC3D对顶管施工过程中地表沉降进行模拟,旨在了解超浅层顶管施工引起的力学效应。对超浅层顶管施工引起的地表沉降作出预测,为采取措施减小地表沉降提供依据。  相似文献   

Detecting forest damage after a low-severity fire using remote sensing at multiple scales     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2015

Remote sensing technologies are an ideal platform to examine the extent and impact of fire on the landscape. In this study we assess that capacity of the RapidEye constellation and Landsat (Thematic Mapper and Operational Land Imager to map fine-scale burn attributes for a small, low severity prescribed fire in a dry Western Canadian forest. Estimates of burn severity from field data were collated into a simple burn index and correlated with a selected suite of common spectral vegetation indices. Burn severity classes were then derived to map fire impacts and estimate consumed woody surface fuels (diameter ≥2.6 cm). All correlations between the simple burn index and vegetation indices produced significant results (p < 0.01), but varied substantially in their overall accuracy. Although the Landsat Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index provided the best regression fit (R² = 0.56), results suggested that RapidEye provided much more spatially detailed estimates of tree damage (Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index, R² = 0.51). Consumption estimates of woody surface fuels ranged from 3.38 ± 1.03 Mg ha⁻¹ to 11.73 ± 1.84 Mg ha⁻¹, across four derived severity classes with uncertainties likely a result of changing foliage moisture between the before and after fire images. While not containing spectral information in the short wave infrared, the spatial variability provided by the RapidEye imagery has potential for mapping and monitoring fine scale forest attributes, as well as the potential to resolve fire damage at the individual tree level.  相似文献   

Seismic hazard analysis in zones of time and space interdependence: An application to S?o Miguel Island, Azores     

C. S. Oliveira  A. C. Costa  V. H. Forjaz  J. C. Nunes 《Natural Hazards》1984,3(1):15-29

The Azores Islands are located in the mid-Atlantic region near the triple junction where the Euro-Asiatic-African-American plates join together. Seismic activity in the area is very high, as can be observed either from historical events since the fifteenth century, from present day microseismicity, and from direct and indirect measurements of recent tectonic deformation. Volcanic activity is also present throughout the region.All available information, even data exhibiting low quality, was used to develop hazard models of São Miguel Island. Source zones were established based on both the global tectonic behaviour of the region and on the local active fault structures. Recurrence laws for São Miguel Island, for which historical information seemed quite incomplete, were obtained from the large events in the entire archipelago and from their remarkable pattern of time and space dependence, and complimented by information on long-term fault deformation (for the longer recurrence periods) and on high precision instrumental network (for the very short recurrence periods).Attenuation laws were derived from data on events felt and/or recorded in the Island.Hazard maps were obtained through a modified version of McGuire's algorithm for several geometries of source areas and results compared with the maximum observed intensity of historical events.Abstract presented at the 21st General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission held in Sofia, 1988.  相似文献   

Spatial and temporal variability of hard-bottom macrofauna in a disturbed coastal lagoon (Sacca di Goro, Po River Delta, Northwestern Adriatic Sea)     

Marchini A  Gauzer K  Occhipinti-Ambrogi A 《Marine pollution bulletin》2004,48(11-12):1084-1095

The sessile and mobile macrobenthos on artificial hard bottoms was studied in 12 stations of the Sacca di Goro lagoon, a brackish, highly stressed water basin in the delta of the river Po, open to the Northwestern Adriatic Sea. Three sampling surveys were carried out in June and September 2000 and June 2001 in order to make three types of temporal comparisons: (i) on a seasonal scale, before and after a summer dystrophic event; (ii) on an annual basis, before and after the works of excavation of a canal through the outer sand bank; (iii) on a multiannual scale, comparing the data with those of a survey carried out in 1988. The biocoenoses did not show large fluctuations after a moderately severe summer dystrophic crisis, while the digging of the canal caused clear changes in the macrobenthos community structure after one year. The long-term comparison showed a shift in the community patterns after a decade.  相似文献   

CERES-Wheat模型在我国小麦区的应用效果及误差来源   总被引：11，自引：1，他引：10       下载免费PDF全文

熊伟 《应用气象学报》2009,20(1):88-94

气候模型与作物模型耦合是评价未来气候变化对作物生产影响的常用方法之一, 但当两者结合时, 存在着空间和时间尺度差异问题, 将作物模型升尺度到区域是解决该差异的一种方法。将CERES-Wheat模型升尺度进行区域模拟, 利用区域校准后的CERES-Wheat模型, 模拟了1981—2000年全国各网格小麦产量, 与同期农调队调查产量相比较, 以探讨CERES-Wheat模型在我国小麦区的模拟效果及误差来源。结果表明:全国小麦产量的区域模拟值与农调队调查产量的相对均方根误差为27.9%, 符合度为0.75, 全国59.2%的模拟网格相对均方根误差在30%以内, 其中相对均方根误差小于15%的占26.3%;各区的效果不同, 种植面积最大的小麦种植生态2区, 模拟效果最好。总体来说, CERES-Wheat的区域模拟, 可以反映产量变化规律, 能为宏观决策提供相应信息, 尤其是在主产区; 但区域模拟中还存在一系列误差, 今后还需进一步研究。  相似文献   

基于时空不确定性的对流尺度集合预报效果评估检验   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

马申佳  陈超辉  智协飞  何宏让  吴丹 《气象学报》2018,76(4):578-589

针对对流尺度天气系统的高度非线性特征和高分辨率模式预报结果存在时、空不确定性现象,以及当前邻域概率法主要考虑高分辨率预报结果的空间位移误差,而不能有效解决预报结果存在时间超前与滞后问题,将时间因素引入到邻域概率法中,结合一次强飑线过程进行对流尺度集合预报试验,并基于改进后的新型邻域概率法与分数技巧评分,对降水预报进行了不同时、空尺度的效果评估检验。结果表明:（1）邻域集合概率法和概率匹配平均法在极端降水的分数技巧评分远高于传统集合平均,弥补了集合平均对极端降水预报能力偏低的缺陷。（2）对于此类飑线过程的对流尺度天气系统而言,邻域半径为15—45 km的空间尺度能够改善降水位移误差的空间不确定性,并使其预报效果达到最优,其中15—30 km的邻域半径对于尺度更小的大量级降水事件预报能力更强。（3）对流尺度降水预报考虑时间尺度与降水强度存在着对应关系,不同时间尺度可以捕获到不同量级降水的时间不确定性。同时,时间尺度与空间尺度对于降水预报效果的影响是相互关联的。（4）改进的邻域概率法能够同时体现高分辨率模式预报结果在对流尺度降水事件上存在的时、空不确定性,实现了对流尺度降水在时、空尺度上的综合评估,并能为不同量级降水提供与其时、空尺度相匹配的概率预报结果。   相似文献   

Economics of a Baltic Sea sustainability approach     

Jrg Khn 《Limnologica》1999,29(3):346

Politics, economics and science interpret the concept of sustainability differently. The discussion distinguishes between economic, environmental and social sustainability. While advocates of economic sustainability assume that natural capital is substitutable by humanmade capital, policies for a sustainable development are questionable. The paper therefore highlights a regional case to show that sustainability is indivisible. Moreover, economics and policies serving Baltic sustainability need a new institutional network to manage the multispecies resource with participation of the social players and by addressing targets step by step. The findings are based on a simple ecological-economic model providing insights for the negotiation game for all players. In addition, multispecies resource management shows a strong hierarchy in both social actions and targets. Since sustainable development is an on-going, dynamic process, policy implementation and funding must also be continuous. Sustainable development therefore challenges the institutional sets for the process and its relations to local, regional and national policies.  相似文献