Maximum likelihood estimation of Gutenberg-Richterb parameter for uncertain magnitude values     

Andrzej Kijko 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1988,127(4):573-579

The maximum likelihood estimation of theb parameter in the Gutenberg-Richter relation is extended to the case of uncertain magnitude. An interval which contains the real unknown magnitude is used rather than the uncertain magnitude itself. The proposed approach is very flexible, it allows for the combination of the parts of a catalog of different quality into a single minimally biased set of recurrence parameters.On leave from the Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, 00-973 Warsaw, Pasteura 3, Poland  相似文献   

Turbulence Structure in the Wake Region of a Meteorological Tower   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Christian Barthlott  Franz Fiedler 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2003,108(1):175-190

A meteorological tower significantly modifies the air flow, the mean windspeed and wind direction as well as the turbulencestructure of the air. Suchchanges can be noticed in particular in the wake region of the tower.Measurementson the 200 m tower ofForschungszentrum Karlsruhewere carried outusing Solent sonic anemometers in the lee of the towerand cup anemometers on both sides.In the wake region, spectral energydensity is increased in the high-frequency range. Superposition of this disturbance spectrum on the undisturbedspectrum yields a `knee' in the resulting spectrum. In the case of low turbulence intensity with stable stratification,a plateau with a constant energy content is observed in front of the knee.This effect is caused by the new production of turbulence energy from the mean flow as well as by an energy transfer fromlarger to smaller vortices. Power spectra in strongly stable conditionsshow a more rapid decrease of intensity in the region where the inertialsubrange is expected.The relevant scales of wake turbulence are derived from the maximum of the disturbance spectrum.Locations of the high-frequency peak do not depend on atmospheric stability,but are controlled mainly by mean wind speed.Apart from the reduction of the mean wind speed, the spectra and cospectra exhibit a strong anisotropy for such cases.The results demonstrate the significant influence of a tower on turbulence spectra in the wake region.  相似文献   

Mixing Methodologies in Seismic Hazard Assessment via a Logic Tree Procedure: An Application for Eastern Spain     

J. J. Giner  S. Molina  J. Delgado  P. Jáuregui 《Natural Hazards》2002,25(1):59-81

This study provides a procedure for assessing seismic hazardand uncertainties in regions that are characterised by a large non-instrumental earthquakedatabase and a seismic and tectonic behaviour which doesn't allow an evident seismic zonation.This procedure is a synthesis of the non-zoning or non-parametric methodology (using extremevalues distribution functions as proposed by Epstein and Lomnitz, 1966) and the zoning orparametric methodology (using the theorem of total probability as proposed by Cornell, 1968)via a logic tree procedure taking into consideration the advantages offered by each of these.Taking the area which we shall describe as the east coast of Spain and surrounding inland areas,an application was made and a specific logic tree was developed in order to solve the problems anduncertainties related to the evaluation of the seismic hazard using both methodologies. The use of thelogic tree allowed the systematisation of a large number of solutions obtained. A number of relevantresults were obtained which show that in some cases there are great differences in the seismichazard results provided by the non-zoning and the zoning methodologies. In these cases, mean value andstandard deviation of the obtained results provide an intermediate solution to the over-conservativeestimation provided by the non-zoning methodology and the lowest results provided by the zoningmethodology. In other cases results provided by both methodologies are significantly closer.In any case, synthesis among both methodologies gives a wider knowledge of the uncertaintiesassociated with the seismic hazard results. Finally uncertainties increase with the decreaseof the annual probability of exceedence and in sites with a seismic history of large size earthquakes.  相似文献   

Uncertainties in Facies Proportion Estimation I. Theoretical Framework: The Dirichlet Distribution     

André Haas  Philippe Formery 《Mathematical Geology》2002,34(6):679-702

To simulate geological models comprising several litho-types—or facies—we need first to estimate their proportions, which are often poorly known. The corresponding uncertainties can be modelled using a Bayesian approach for inverting the multinomial distribution. The result obtained is known as the Dirichlet distribution. It can be simulated by decomposition into independent conditional distributions. Application of the model is extended to the case of nonstationary proportions and, with some approximation, to the case of correlated spatial data. The mathematical developments presented in the appendices provide a more precise and general definition of the distribution, several decomposition formulae into independent variables, the determination of remarkable stability properties, and the resulting consequences for the conditional and marginal distributions.  相似文献   

Influence of disturbance and nutrient enrichment on early successional fouling communities in an oligotrophic marine system     

João Canning-Clode  Manfred Kaufmann  Markus Molis  Martin Wahl  & Mark Lenz 《Marine Ecology》2008,29(1):115-124

Disturbance and productivity are often cited as the main factors determining temporal and spatial patterns in species distribution and the diversity of communities. A field experiment was conducted to test the role of these factors in the structuring of early successional fouling communities in a nutrient limited system at the south coast of Madeira Island. Macro‐benthic sessile communities, established on artificial settlement substrata, were manipulated and surveyed over a 9‐week period. We applied mechanical disturbances of four different frequencies crossed with three levels of inorganic nutrient enrichment. Fertilization enhanced community diversity by favouring the establishment and growth of macroalgae. Disturbance reduced diversity by eliminating species – but only at the highest nutrient level. This is explained by a multiple‐stressor model; species most sensitive to nutrient deficiency (only present in the highest enrichment treatment) were simultaneously the most sensitive to disturbance.  相似文献   

数值预报发展的新方向——集合数值预报   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：5  

王太微  陈德辉 《气象研究与应用》2007,28(1):6-12

数值预报走过了百年的历史(V.Bjerknes,1904)[1],取得了了不起的成就,预报准确率有了很大的提高。但是,考虑到大气的非线性作用以及初值和模式造成的数值预报不确定性,要提高传统的单一确定性预报的技巧越来越难。基于大气初值的敏感性试验,Lorenz提出了数值预报发展的新方向——集合数值预报。通过介绍集合数值预报的基本思想和方法;并针对初值和模式的不确定性,概述现有集合数值预报成员的产生方法及国内外的研究进展;同时解释怎样检验集合预报的结果的论述,如何从众多的集合预报产品中提炼有用的信息及预报产品的释用。  相似文献   

气候变化国家评估报告(Ⅱ):气候变化的影响与适应   总被引：10，自引：1，他引：10  

林而达  许吟隆  吴绍洪  Ju Hui  Ma Shiming 《气候变化研究进展》2007,3(Z1):6-11

Significant and various impacts of climate change have been observed in China, showing both positive and adverse effects, dominantly the latter, in different sectors and regions. It is very likely that future climate change would cause significant adverse impacts on the ecosystems, agriculture, water resources, and coastal zones in China. Adoption of adaptive measures to climate change can alleviate the adverse impact, therefore such measures should be incorporated into the medium-and long-term national economic and social development plans. Because China has done relatively limited research on impact assessment and our understanding of climate change is incomplete, the current impact assessment methodologies used and results obtained contain many uncertainties. To reduce the uncertainties and develop effective and practical climate change adaptive measures in China, it is necessary to emphasize regional case studies on adaptive measures, enlarge the scope of climate change research, and strengthen the assessment of the impacts resulted from extreme weather/climate events.  相似文献   

Seasonal Sensitivity on COBEL-ISBA Local Forecast System for Fog and Low Clouds     

Stevie Roquelaure  Thierry Bergot 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2007,164(6-7):1283-1301

Skillful low visibility forecasts are essential for air-traffic managers to effectively regulate traffic and to optimize air-traffic control at international airports. For this purpose, the COBEL-ISBA local numerical forecast system has been implemented at Paris CDG international airport. This local approach is robust owing to the assimilation of detailed local observations. However, even with dedicated observations and initialization, uncertainties remain in both initial conditions and mesoscale forcings. The goal of the research presented here is to address the sensitivity of COBEL-ISBA forecast to initial conditions and mesoscale forcings during the winter season 2002–2003. The main sources of uncertainty of COBEL-ISBA input parameters have been estimated and the evaluation of parameter uncertainty on the forecasts has been studied. A budget strategy is applied during the winter season to quantify COBEL-ISBA sensitivity. This study is the first step toward building a local ensemble prediction system based on COBEL-ISBA. The conclusions of this work point out the potential for COBEL-ISBA ensemble forecasting and quantify sources of uncertainty that lead to dispersion.  相似文献   

数值预报发展的新方向——集合数值预报   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

王太微  陈德辉 《广西气象》2007,28(1):6-12,24

数值预报走过了百年的历史（V．Bjerknes，1904），取得了了不起的成就，预报准确率有了很大的提高。但是，考虑到大气的非线性作用以及初值和模式造成的数值预报不确定性，要提高传统的单一确定性预报的技巧越来越难。基于大气初值的敏感性试验，Lorenz提出了数值预报发展的新方向——集合数值预报。 通过介绍集合数值预报的基本思想和方法；并针对初值和模式的不确定性，概述现有集合数值预报成员的产生方法及国内外的研究进展；同时解释怎样检验集合预报的结果的论述，如何从众多的集合预报产品中提炼有用的信息及预报产品的释用。  相似文献   

On the information content of forest transpiration measurements for identifying canopy conductance model parameters     

S. C. Dekker  W. Bouten  F. C. Bosveld 《水文研究》2001,15(14):2821-2832

Generally, forest transpiration models contain model parameters that cannot be measured independently and therefore are tuned to fit the model results to measurements. Only unique parameter estimates with high accuracy can be used for extrapolation in time or space. However, parameter identification problems may occur as a result of the properties of the data set. Time‐series of environmental conditions, which control the forest transpiration, may contain periods with redundant or coupled information, so called collinearity, and other combinations of conditions may be measured only with difficulty or incompletely. The aim of this study is to select environmental conditions that yield a unique parameter set of a canopy conductance model. The parameter identification method based on localization of information (PIMLI) was used to calculate the information content of every individual artificial transpiration measurement. It is concluded that every measurement has its own information with respect to a parameter. Independent criteria were assessed to localize the environmental conditions, which contain measurements with most information. These measurements were used in separate subdata sets to identify the parameters. The selected measurements do not overlap and the accuracies of the parameter estimates are maximized. Measurements that were not selected do not contain additional information that can be used to further maximize the parameter accuracy. Thereupon, the independent criteria were used to select eddy correlation measurements and parameters were identified with only the selected measurements. It is concluded that, for this forest and data set, PIMLI identifies a unique parameter set with high accuracy, whereas conventional calibrations on subdata sets give non‐unique parameter estimates. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献