Evaluation of current statistical approaches for predictive geomorphological mapping   总被引：5，自引：3，他引：5  

Luoto Miska  Hjort Jan 《Geomorphology》2005,67(3-4):299-315

Predictive models are increasingly used in geomorphology, but systematic evaluations of novel statistical techniques are still limited. The aim of this study was to compare the accuracy of generalized linear models (GLM), generalized additive models (GAM), classification tree analysis (CTA), neural networks (ANN) and multiple adaptive regression splines (MARS) in predictive geomorphological modelling. Five different distribution models both for non-sorted and sorted patterned ground were constructed on the basis of four terrain parameters and four soil variables. To evaluate the models, the original data set of 9997 squares of 1 ha in size was randomly divided into model training (70%, n=6998) and model evaluation sets (30%, n=2999).In general, active sorted patterned ground is clearly defined in upper fell areas with high slope angle and till soils. Active non-sorted patterned ground is more common in valleys with higher soil moisture and fine-scale concave topography. The predictive performance of each model was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the Kappa value. The relatively high discrimination capacity of all models, AUC=0.85–0.88 and Kappa=0.49–0.56, implies that the model's predictions provide an acceptable index of sorted and non-sorted patterned ground occurrence. The best performance for model calibration data for both data sets was achieved by the CTA. However, when the predictive mapping ability was explored through the evaluation data set, the model accuracies of CTA decreased clearly compared to the other modelling techniques. For model evaluation data MARS performed marginally best.Our results show that the digital elevation model and soil data can be used to predict relatively robustly the activity of patterned ground in fine scale in a subarctic landscape. This indicates that predictive geomorphological modelling has the advantage of providing relevant and useful information on earth surface processes over extensive areas, such data being unavailable through more conventional survey methods.  相似文献   

Linearized 2.5-dimensional parameter imaging inversion in anisotropic elastic media     

Stig-Kyrre Foss  Maarten V. de Hoop  Bjørn Ursin 《Geophysical Journal International》2005,161(3):722-738

  相似文献   

High-resolution imaging of the Bear Valley section of the San Andreas fault at seismogenic depths with fault-zone head waves and relocated seismicity   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Jeff McGuire  Yehuda Ben-Zion 《Geophysical Journal International》2005,163(1):152-164

  相似文献   

Scattering of elastic waves in geometrically anisotropic random media and its implication to sounding of heterogeneity in the Earth's deep interior     

Tae-Kyung Hong  Ru-Shan Wu 《Geophysical Journal International》2005,163(1):324-338

  相似文献   

Crustal structure of the Lofoten–Vesterålen continental margin, off Norway     

Filippos Tsikalas  Olav Eldholm  Jan Inge Faleide   《Tectonophysics》2005,404(3-4):151-174

By compiling wide-angle seismic velocity profiles along the 400-km-long Lofoten–Vesterålen continental margin off Norway, and integrating them with an extensive seismic reflection data set and crustal-scale two-dimensional gravity modelling, we outline the crustal margin structure. The structure is illustrated by across-margin regional transects and by contour maps of depth to Moho, thickness of the crystalline crust, and thickness of the 7+ km/s lower crustal body. The data reveal a normal thickness oceanic crust seaward of anomaly 23 and an increase in thickness towards the continent–ocean boundary associated with breakup magmatism. The southern boundary of the Lofoten–Vesterålen margin, the Bivrost Fracture Zone and its landward prolongation, appears as a major across-margin magmatic and structural crustal feature that governed the evolution of the margin. In particular, a steeply dipping and relatively narrow, 10–40-km-wide, Moho-gradient zone exists within a continent–ocean transition, which decreases in width northward along the Lofoten–Vesterålen margin. To the south, the zone continues along the Vøring margin, however it is offset 70–80 km to the northwest along the Bivrost Fracture Zone/Lineament. Here, the Moho-gradient zone corresponds to a distinct, 25-km-wide, zone of rapid landward increase in crustal thickness that defines the transition between the Lofoten platform and the Vøring Basin. The continental crust on the Lofoten–Vesterålen margin reaches a thickness of 26 km and appears to have experienced only moderate extension, contrasting with the greatly extended crust in the Vøring Basin farther south. There are also distinct differences between the Lofoten and Vesterålen margin segments as revealed by changes in structural style and crustal thickness as well as in the extent of elongate potential-field anomalies. These changes may be related to transfer zones. Gravity modelling shows that the prominent belt of shelf-edge gravity anomalies results from a shallow basement structural relief, while the elongate Lofoten Islands belt requires increased lower crustal densities along the entire area of crustal thinning beneath the islands. Furthermore, gravity modelling offers a robust diagnostic tool for the existence of the lower crustal body. From modelling results and previous studies on- and off-shore mid-Norway, we postulate that the development of a core complex in the middle to lower crust in the Lofoten Islands region, which has been exhumed along detachments during large-scale extension, brought high-grade, lower crustal rocks, possibly including accreted decompressional melts, to shallower levels.  相似文献   

Flexural and gravity modelling of the Mérida Andes and Barinas–Apure Basin, Western Venezuela     

Luis Chacín  María I. Jcome  Carlos Izarra 《Tectonophysics》2005,405(1-4):155-167

The kinematic evolution of the Barinas–Apure Basin and the southern Mérida Andes from Lower Miocene to the Present is numerically modelled using flexural isostatic theory and geophysical and geological data. Two published regional transects are used to build up a reference section, which is then used to constrain important parameters (e.g. shortenings and sedimentary thicknesses) for the flexural modelling. To control the location of the main fault system in the flexural model earthquake information is also used. The estimated flexural elastic thickness of the South American lithosphere beneath the Barinas–Apure Basin and the Mérida Andes Range is 25 km. The value for the final total shortening is 60 km. The flexural isostatic model shows that the Andean uplift has caused the South American lithosphere subsidence and the development of the Barinas–Apure Basin.In addition, gravity modelling was used to understand deep crustal features that could not be predicted by flexural theory. Consequently, the best-fit flexural model is used to build a gravity model across the Mérida Andes and the Barinas–Apure Basin preserving the best-controlled structural features from the flexural modelling (e.g. basin wavelength and depth) and slightly changing the main bodies density values and deep crustal structures. The final gravity model is intended to be representative of the major features affecting the gravity field in the study area. The predicted morphology in the lower crustal level of the final gravity model favours the hypothesis of a present delamination or megathrust of the Maracaibo crust over the South American Shield. This process would use the Conrad discontinuity as a main detachment surface within an incipient NW dipping continental subduction.  相似文献   

Western Alpine back-thrusting as subsidence mechanism in the Tertiary Piedmont Basin (Western Po Plain, NW Italy)     

B. Carrapa  D. Garcia-Castellanos 《Tectonophysics》2005,406(3-4):197-212

Basin formation dynamics of the Tertiary Piedmont Basin (TPB) are here investigated by means of cross-section numerical modelling. Previous works hypothesised that basin subsidence occurred due first to extension (Oligocene) and then to subsequent loading due to back-thrusting (Miocene). However, structural evidence shows that the TPB was mainly under contraction from Oligocene until post Pliocene time while extension played a minor role. Furthermore, thermal indicators strongly call for a cold (flexure-induced) mechanism but are strictly inconsistent with a hot (thermally induced) mechanism. Our new modelling shows that the TPB stratigraphic features can be reproduced by flexure of a visco-elastic plate loaded by back-thrusts active in the Western Alps in Oligo-Miocene times. Far-field compression contributed to the TPB subsidence and controlled the basin infill geometry by enhancing basin tilting, forebulge uplift and erosion of the southern margin of the basin. These results suggest that the TPB subsidence is the result of a combination of mechanisms including thrust loading and far-field compressional stresses.  相似文献   

Anomalous lithospheric structure of Northern Juan de Fuca plate — a consequence of oceanic rift propagation?     

Alastair F. McClymont  Ron M. Clowes 《Tectonophysics》2005,406(3-4):213-231

Anomalous crustal and upper mantle structure of northern Juan de Fuca plate is revealed from wide-angle seismic and gravity modelling. A 2-D velocity model is produced for refraction line II of the 1980 Vancouver Island Seismic Project (VISP80). The refraction data were recorded on three ocean bottom seismometers (OBSs) deployed at the ends and middle of a 110 km line oriented parallel to the North American continental margin. The velocity model is constructed via ray tracing and conforms to first-arrival amplitude observations and travel time picks of direct, converted and reflected phases. Between sub-sediment depths of 3 to 11 km, depths normally associated with the lower crust and upper oceanic mantle, the final model shows that compressional-wave velocities decrease significantly from southeast to northwest along the profile. At sub-sediment depths of 11 km at the northwestern end of the profile, P-wave velocities are as low as 7.2 km/s. A complementary 2-D gravity model using the geometry of the velocity model and velocity–density relationships characteristic of oceanic crust is produced. The high densities required to match the gravity field indicate the presence of peridotites containing 25–30% serpentine by volume, rather than excess gabbroic crust, within the deep low velocity zone. Anomalous travel time delays and unusual reflection characteristics observed from proximal seismic refraction and reflection experiments suggest a broader zone of partially serpentinized peridotites coincident with the trace of a pseudofault. We propose that partial serpentinization of the upper mantle is a consequence of slow spreading at the tip of a propagating rift.  相似文献   

Fractally Invariant Distributions and an Application in Geochemical Exploration     

Wei Shen  D. R. Cohen 《Mathematical Geology》2005,37(8):895-913

Fractal modelling has been applied extensively as a means of characterizing the spatial distribution of geological phenomena that display self-similarity at differing scales of measurement. A fractal distribution exists where the number of objects exhibiting values larger than a specified magnitude displays a power-law dependence on that magnitude, and where this relationship is scale-invariant. This paper shows that a number of distributions, including power-function, Pareto, log-normal and Zipf, display fractal properties under certain conditions and that this may be used as the mathematical basis for developing fractal models for data exhibiting such distributions. Population limits, derived from fractal modelling using a summation method, are compared with those derived from more conventional probability plot modelling of stream sediment geochemical data from north-eastern New South Wales. Despite some degree of subjectivity in determining the number of populations to use in the models, both the fractal and probability plot modelling have assisted in isolating anomalous observations in the geochemical data related to the occurrence of mineralisation or lithological differences between sub-catchments. Thresholds for the main background populations determined by the fractal model are similar to those established using probability plot modelling, however the summation method displays less capacity to separate out anomalous populations, especially where such populations display extensive overlap. This suggests, in the geochemical data example provided, that subtle differences in the population parameters may not significantly alter the fractal dimension.  相似文献   

Stochastic Modelling of the Impact of Flood Protection Measures Along the River Waal in the Netherlands     

Saskia Van Vuren  Huib J. De. Vriend  Sonja Ouwerkerk  Matthijs Kok 《Natural Hazards》2005,36(1-2):81-102

River flooding is a problem of international interest. In the past few years many countries suffered from severe floods. A large part of the Netherlands is below sea level and river levels. The Dutch flood defences along the river Rhine are designed for water levels with a probability of exceedance of 1/1250 per year. These water levels are computed with a hydrodynamic model using a deterministic bed level and a deterministic design discharge. Traditionally, the safety against flooding in the Netherlands is obtained by building and reinforcing dikes. Recently, a new policy was proposed to cope with increasing design discharges in the Rhine and Meuse rivers. This policy is known as the Room for the River (RfR) policy, in which a reduction of flood levels is achieved by measures creating space for the river, such as dike replacement, side channels and floodplain lowering. As compared with dike reinforcement, these measures may have a stronger impact on flow and sediment transport fields, probably leading to stronger morphological effects. As a result of the latter the flood conveyance capacity may decrease over time. An a priori judgement of safety against flooding on the basis of an increased conveyance capacity of the river can be quite misleading. Therefore, the determination of design water levels using a fixed-bed hydrodynamic model may not be justified and the use of a mobile-bed approach may be more appropriate. This problem is addressed in this paper, using a case study of the river Waal (one of the Rhine branches in the Netherlands). The morphological response of the river Waal to a flood protection measure (floodplain lowering in combination with summer levee removal) is analysed. The effect of this measure is subject to various sources of uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulations are applied to calculate the impact of uncertainties in the river discharge on the bed levels. The impact of the “uncertain” morphological response on design flood level predictions is analysed for three phenomena, viz. the impact of the spatial morphological variation over years, the impact of the seasonal morphological variation and the impact of the morphological variability around bifurcation points. The impact of seasonal morphological variations turns out to be negligible, but the other two phenomena appear to have each an appreciable impact (order of magnitude 0.05–0.1 m) on the computed design water levels. We have to note however, that other sources of uncertainty (e.g. uncertainty in hydraulic roughness predictor), which may be of influence, are not taken into consideration. In fact, the present investigation is limited to the sensitivity of the design water levels to uncertainties in the predicted bed level.  相似文献