Anticipating futures through models: the rise of Integrated Assessment Modelling in the climate science-policy interface since 1970     

《Global Environmental Change》2020

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) have gained a prominent role in the climate science-policy interface. The article reconstructs the evolution of IAMs and their changing role in this interface, investigating how and why IAMs have become so prominent. Based on literature analysis, quantitative document analysis and semi-structured interviews, we describe the historic evolution of the interactions between IAMs and policy-making between 1970 and 2015. We identify five historic phases in which IAMs played distinct mediating roles between science and policy, succeeding to adjust their scenario efforts to the continuously changing demands for knowledge from the policy community. In explaining the prominent role of IAMs, we differentiate between background conditions (material and sociological) and more contextual factors, most notably the flexible, hybrid and broad nature of IAMs as well as the pro-active character of the IAM community to enhance their policy relevance. We draw on the notion of institutional work to explain this success. In light of the urgency of responding to the climate crisis, we suggest that the IAM community may expand their scope of anticipated futures and consider engaging a wider range of publics and societal stakeholders beyond the science-policy interface.  相似文献   

综合物探方法在广西罗城县活动断裂鉴定中的应用     

吴教兵  黎峻良  江兰  陆俊宏  潘黎黎  韦王秋 《物探与化探》2021,(2):346-354

城市活动断层探测在城市发展建设过程中和保障人民生命财产安全方面起到重要作用。本文以鉴定罗城断裂和上天桥—寺门断裂活动性为目的,在地震地质调查确定其断裂的几何学、运动学和年代学的基础上,选择第四系覆盖断裂最有可能活动的地段,重点采用高密度电法和地震映像方法来探测断裂在隐伏地段的具体位置,通过排钻验证,以及揭露其断裂与第四纪覆盖层之间的错断关系,来确定其断裂最新活动年代。结果表明,高密度电法和地震映像综合物探方法准确探测到了罗城断裂和上天桥—寺门断裂在隐伏地段的位置,且钻孔岩心中断裂面、断裂擦痕、断裂碎裂岩和构造角砾岩等发育,但断裂未错断第四系覆盖层,从而确定其断裂活动年代为早更新世。根据相关规范要求,罗城断裂和上天桥—寺门断裂全新世以来不活动,罗城县的建设规划可不采取避让措施,该鉴定结果为今后罗城县的工程建设提供了安全保障。  相似文献   

Institutional interaction to address greenhouse gas emissions from international transport: ICAO,IMO and the Kyoto Protocol     

《Climate Policy》2013,13(3):191-205

Abstract

In response to Article 2.2 of the Kyoto Protocol, the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) and the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) have begun to consider greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from international aviation and shipping. However, neither ICAO nor IMO have taken any effective action on the issue yet and progress can be characterised as slow. The lack of action has so far not been made up for by measures within the climate change regime or by individual countries. An important motivation for the efforts of ICAO and IMO so far has been the potential regulatory competition with the climate change regime. However, given the lack of political will to act on the issue within the latter, this motivation has not been very forceful. Against this backdrop, I argue that there are in particular three options for furthering progress within ICAO and IMO, namely (1) enhancing the threat of regulation of GHG emissions from international transport under the climate change regime; (2) undertaking unilateral domestic action by various countries (in particular the EU); and (3) furthering a learning process within ICAO and IMO. Furthermore, a closer coordination of efforts under ICAO, IMO and the climate change regime could facilitate and accelerate progress.  相似文献   

Developing institutions for the clean development mechanism (CDM): African perspectives     

Harald Winkler  Ogunlade Davidson  Stanford Mwakasonda 《Climate Policy》2013,13(2):209-220

Abstract

The clean development mechanism (CDM) requires developing countries to set up designated national authorities (DNAs). The DNA should be designed to both attract investment and to establish an effective regulatory framework for project approval—including assessment to ensure that CDM projects contribute to national sustainable development objectives. Since CDM investment flows to Africa are uncertain, however, countries cannot risk large investments in institutional infrastructure and need to build on existing institutions. This article examines the critical functions that a DNA has to fulfil, and outlines several institutional models. It concludes that models that minimize institutional cost by drawing on existing institutions for environmental impact assessment and promotion of foreign direct investment are likely to be the best starting-point for DNAs in many African countries.  相似文献   

基于DSpace的地质资料数字仓储系统建设与应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

颜世强  郭艳军  王喆  潘懋  章浩  周维刚  李嘉一 《地质通报》2013,32(7):1134-1140

针对中国目前电子文档和数字格式的地质资料越来越普及、各单位之间地质资料共享困难的情况,基于DSpace开源机构仓储系统,重点对其用户注册、权限管理、业务工作流等功能进行了改进与功能扩展,使其能够提高地质资料在机构间共享的效率和灵活性。该地质资料数字仓储系统目前作为全国地质资料信息集群化服务平台,为全国地质资料馆的数据服务工作迈出了积极探索的一步。  相似文献   

Allocation of urban land uses by Multi-Objective Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm     

Zohreh Masoomi  Mohammad Sadi Mesgari  Majid Hamrah 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(3):542-566

Considering the ever-increasing urban population, it appears that land management is of major importance. Land uses must be properly arranged so that they do not interfere with one another and can meet each other's needs as much as possible; this goal is a challenge of urban land-use planning. The main objective of this research is to use Multi-Objective Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm to find the optimum arrangement of urban land uses in parcel level, considering multiple objectives and constraints simultaneously. Geospatial Information System is used to prepare the data and to study different spatial scenarios when developing the model. To optimize the land-use arrangement, four objectives are defined: maximizing compatibility, maximizing dependency, maximizing suitability, and maximizing compactness of land uses. These objectives are characterized based on the requirements of planners. As a result of optimization, the user is provided with a set of optimum land-use arrangements, the Pareto-front solutions. The user can select the most appropriate solutions according to his/her priorities. The method was tested using the data of region 7, district 1 of Tehran. The results showed an acceptable level of repeatability and stability for the optimization algorithm. The model uses parcel instead of urban blocks, as the spatial unit. Moreover, it considers a variety of land uses and tries to optimize several objectives simultaneously.  相似文献   

中国近代省区地图特色与价值的探讨     

叶妍君  张岸  齐清文 《地球信息科学学报》2016,18(1):57-67

中国近代（明、清和民国时期）是中国地图编制史上比较有代表性的时期,反映了中国封建社会制图学后期向现代地图学转变的过程。中国近代省区地图具有其他类型地图所不具有的编制特色。本研究通过收集中国近代省区地图资料,从单幅地图、地图集、百科全书并存的出版形式和按行政单位分级分幅的图集编排系统2方面,分析了中国近代省区地图科学内容的编排体系特色;并分别探讨了单幅省区地图、百科全书收录的省区地图和地图集的设计和变化,以总结中国近代省区地图的制图特色,为现今地图制图学提供参考。中国近代省区地图具有较高的地学价值,通过研究中国近代省区地图,可印证省级行政区划单元的地理独特性,揭示省级行政区划单元的内部格局,有利于加强省和区域的管理。  相似文献   

论“前乐府”的批评——兼及孔子的“删诗”问题     

王辉斌 《广东海洋大学学报》2013,(2):48-53

汉武帝"乃立乐府"前,不仅存在着"乐府"与乐府诗,而且也存在着"前乐府批评"。"前乐府"的批评,主要表现在"整理""选择""题解"三个方面,且互有关联,即"整理"之中兼有"选择","选择"之中又兼有"题解"。这种类型的批评,是文学批评在初始阶段的一种具体表现。"前乐府"的批评由先秦而唐宋,形成了乐府诗批评史上一道耀眼的风景线。  相似文献   

Institutional designs of customary fisheries management arrangements in Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and Mexico     

J.E. Cinner  Xavier BasurtoPedro Fidelman  John KuangeRachael Lahari  Ahmad Mukminin 《Marine Policy》2012,36(1):278-285

There are considerable efforts by governments, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and academia to integrate marine conservation initiatives and customary practices, such as taboos that limit resource use. However, these efforts are often pursued without a fundamental understanding of customary institutions. This paper examines the operational rules in use and the presence of institutional design principles in long-enduring and dynamic customary fisheries management institutions in Papua New Guinea, Indonesia, and Mexico. Rather than a “blue print” for devising long-enduring institutions, this study relies on the design principles as a starting point to organize an inquiry into the institutional diversity found in customary governance regimes. Three important trends emerged from this comparative analysis: (1) despite it being notoriously difficult to define boundaries around marine resources, almost 3/4 of the cases in this study had clearly defined boundaries and membership; (2) all of the customary institutions were able to make and change rules, indicating a critical degree of flexibility and autonomy that may be necessary for adaptive management; (3) the customary institutions examined generally lacked key interactions with organizations operating at larger scales, suggesting that they may lack the institutional embeddedness required to confront some common pool resources (CPR) challenges from the broader socioeconomic, institutional and political settings in which they are embedded. Future research will be necessary to better understand how specific institutional designs are related to social and ecological outcomes in commons property institutions.  相似文献   

Institutional ambiguity in implementing the European Union Marine Strategy Framework Directive   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Judith van Leeuwen  Luc van HoofJan van Tatenhove 《Marine Policy》2012,36(3):636-643

This article addresses the institutional ambiguity that exists between the European, Regional and Member State levels in the implementation of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD). The two main reasons for the emergence of institutional ambiguity are (1) the MSFD being a framework directive and (2) Member States are required to coordinate the implementation of the MFSD through the Regional Sea Conventions. Institutional ambiguity refers to the interference zone between different institutional settings that come together in new policy practices. New rules of the game are needed to bring these institutional settings together and the room to manoeuvre for the actors who negotiate these rules is a defining feature of institutional ambiguity. This article analyses the institutional ambiguity associated with MSFD implementation on the European and regional level for four European Seas: the North Sea, the Baltic Sea, the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea. The results indicate different levels of institutional ambiguity in each of the four regions, with the lowest level of ambiguity in the Baltic Sea and the highest in the Mediterranean Sea. Institutional ambiguity also exists on the European level, as coordination efforts have not resulted in clear directions for the implementation of the MSFD as yet. The level of institutional ambiguity is influenced by the relative number of EU member states bordering the particular sea and whether they consider implementation of the MFSD to be urgent. Member States bordering the Mediterranean and the Black Seas lack the support of Regional Sea Conventions in addition to receiving limited direction from the European level.  相似文献