湛江北部湾海域养殖墨西哥湾扇贝重量性状增长规律的研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

王辉  刘志刚  符世伟 《热带海洋学报》2007,26(5):53-59

采用模型拟合方法研究了湛江北部湾海域养殖墨西哥湾扇贝Argopecten irradians concentricus一个养殖周期的重量增长规律。结果表明,墨西哥湾扇贝各重量性状增长过程遵循Logistic生长模型。通过Levenberg-Mar-quardt迭代法求出模型中3个生长参数,建立了各性状生长方程,并得出各重量性状的生长极限值为体重28.29g、壳重17.27g、生殖腺重0.44g、软体部重11.21g、闭壳肌重5.35g;各重量性状的生长拐点分别为体重5.86个月、壳重6.11个月、生殖腺重5.01个月、软体部重5.55个月、闭壳肌重5.86个月,其中生殖腺重出现增长提早、壳重出现增长延缓现象;各重量性状的绝对增长速度为体重>壳重>软体部重>闭壳肌重>生殖腺重;重量性状相对于形态性状出现生长延缓现象。  相似文献   

城市建设对暴雨内涝空间分布的影响研究——以武汉市主城区为例     

赵丽元  韦佳伶 《地理科学进展》2020,39(11):1898-1908

城市内涝灾害频繁,用地开发与空间扩张被普遍认为是其致因之一。对比武汉市遥感数据,1984—2017年,超过30%的自然水体被填占开发,城市建设开发活跃、填湖造陆强度大。论文以武汉市为例,采用二项Logistic模型,定量分析不同降雨强度情景下的内涝影响因素。研究表明,填湖造陆将极大地增加极端降雨情景下城市滨水区域的内涝风险。城市地形地势、排水管网条件、用地类型以及邻域用地结构等因素,也直接影响内涝风险。基于2种不同的用地开发策略,预测城市内涝风险结果显示,城市用地的不当开发将引致严重内涝风险。依据内涝风险的空间分布预测结果,论文提出了相应的改善策略,以为科学地制定防涝减灾规划提供参考。  相似文献   

Spatiotemporal variability of urban growth factors: A global and local perspective on the megacity of Mumbai     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2015

The rapid growth of megacities requires special attention among urban planners worldwide, and particularly in Mumbai, India, where growth is very pronounced. To cope with the planning challenges this will bring, developing a retrospective understanding of urban land-use dynamics and the underlying driving-forces behind urban growth is a key prerequisite. This research uses regression-based land-use change models – and in particular non-spatial logistic regression models (LR) and auto-logistic regression models (ALR) – for the Mumbai region over the period 1973–2010, in order to determine the drivers behind spatiotemporal urban expansion. Both global models are complemented by a local, spatial model, the so-called geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR) model, one that explicitly permits variations in driving-forces across space. The study comes to two main conclusions. First, both global models suggest similar driving-forces behind urban growth over time, revealing that LRs and ALRs result in estimated coefficients with comparable magnitudes. Second, all the local coefficients show distinctive temporal and spatial variations. It is therefore concluded that GWLR aids our understanding of urban growth processes, and so can assist context-related planning and policymaking activities when seeking to secure a sustainable urban future.  相似文献   

华北平原禹城市耕地变化与驱动力分析(英文)   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

陈朝  吕昌河  范兰 《地理学报(英文版)》2012,22(3):563-573

Taking Yucheng, a typical agricultural county in Shandong Province as a case, this study applied Logistic regression models to spatially identify factors affecting farmland changes. Using two phases of high resolution imageries in 2001 and 2009, the study obtained the land use and farmland change data in 2001-2009. It was found that the farmland was reduced by 5.14% in the period, mainly due to the farmland conversion to forest land and built-up land, although part of forest land and unused land was converted to farmland. The results of Logistic regressions indicated that location, population growth and farmer income were main factors affecting the farmland conversion, while soil types and pro-curvature were main natural factors controlling the distribution of farmland changes. Regional differences and temporal-spatial variables of farmland changes affected fitting capability of the Logistic re-gression models. The ROC fitting test indicated that the Logistic regression models gave a good explanation of the regional land-use changes. Logistic regression analysis is a good tool to identify major factors affecting land use change by quantifying the contribution of each factor.  相似文献   

Application of logistic regression for landslide susceptibility zoning of Cekmece Area, Istanbul, Turkey   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

T. Y. Duman  T. Can  C. Gokceoglu  H. A. Nefeslioglu  H. Sonmez 《Environmental Geology》2006,51(2):241-256

As a result of industrialization, throughout the world, cities have been growing rapidly for the last century. One typical example of these growing cities is Istanbul, the population of which is over 10 million. Due to rapid urbanization, new areas suitable for settlement and engineering structures are necessary. The Cekmece area located west of the Istanbul metropolitan area is studied, because the landslide activity is extensive in this area. The purpose of this study is to develop a model that can be used to characterize landslide susceptibility in map form using logistic regression analysis of an extensive landslide database. A database of landslide activity was constructed using both aerial-photography and field studies. About 19.2% of the selected study area is covered by deep-seated landslides. The landslides that occur in the area are primarily located in sandstones with interbedded permeable and impermeable layers such as claystone, siltstone and mudstone. About 31.95% of the total landslide area is located at this unit. To apply logistic regression analyses, a data matrix including 37 variables was constructed. The variables used in the forwards stepwise analyses are different measures of slope, aspect, elevation, stream power index (SPI), plan curvature, profile curvature, geology, geomorphology and relative permeability of lithological units. A total of 25 variables were identified as exerting strong influence on landslide occurrence, and included by the logistic regression equation. Wald statistics values indicate that lithology, SPI and slope are more important than the other parameters in the equation. Beta coefficients of the 25 variables included the logistic regression equation provide a model for landslide susceptibility in the Cekmece area. This model is used to generate a landslide susceptibility map that correctly classified 83.8% of the landslide-prone areas.  相似文献   

Landslide susceptibility mapping in the Damrei Romel area, Cambodia using frequency ratio and logistic regression models   总被引：24，自引：0，他引：24  

Saro Lee  Touch Sambath 《Environmental Geology》2006,50(6):847-855

This study applied, tested and compared a probability model, a frequency ratio and statistical model, a logistic regression to Damre Romel area, Cambodia, using a geographic information system. For landslide susceptibility mapping, landslide locations were identified in the study area from interpretation of aerial photographs and field surveys, and a spatial database was constructed from topographic maps, geology and land cover. The factors that influence landslide occurrence, such as slope, aspect, curvature and distance from drainage were calculated from the topographic database. Lithology and distance from lineament were extracted and calculated from the geology database. Land cover was classified from Landsat TM satellite imagery. The relationship between the factors and the landslides was calculated using frequency ratio and logistic regression models. The relationships, frequency ratio and logistic regression coefficient were overlaid to make landslide susceptibility map. Then the landslide susceptibility map was compared with known landslide locations and tested. As the result, the frequency ratio model (86.97%) and the logistic regression (86.37%) had high and similar prediction accuracy. The landslide susceptibility map can be used to reduce hazards associated with landslides and to land cover planning.  相似文献   

干旱区绿洲两种典型的LUCC过程与驱动力对比分析——以天山北坡三工河流域为例     

汤发树  陈曦  罗格平  蔺卿  刘海隆 《中国科学D辑》2006,36(Z2)

根据三工河流域绿洲1978,1987年航片、1998年TM影像以及土壤、水文与社会经济资料,综合运用遥感、GIS、土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)指数模型、Logistic逐步回归模型及所提出的因子加权和指标,分析表征影响因子对区域土地利用空间格局的影响程度,比较小规模家庭承包和大规模农场耕作的两种典型土地经营模式下的LUCC过程和驱动力.耕地、草地控制全区土地利用的基本格局,耕地、城镇村工矿用地面积逐年增加,家庭经营区林草地面积均大幅度减少,而农场经营区仅草地有所减少(减幅12.0%),林地却增加了(增幅13.7%);研究区前期(1978～1987年)土地利用变化比后期(1987～1998年)剧烈,家庭经营区土地利用变化比农场经营区剧烈.政策是土地利用变化的决定性因素,水资源是土地利用的先决条件,在政策的宏观控制和水资源的约束下,全区土地利用变化的主要驱动因素为人口和经济,主要的限制因素为土壤肥力和地下水埋深;家庭经营区人为驱动占主导地位,农场经营区自然因素的限制作用更加突出.影响因子波动越大的区域或时段,其土地利用的变化也越显著.  相似文献   

中国跨省流动人口回流意愿的空间差异及影响因素   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

张华  刘哲达  殷小冰 《地理科学进展》2021,40(1):73-84

在中国城市产业结构升级和乡村经济发展的宏观背景下,乡城流动人口的返乡回流现象逐渐显现,流动人口呈现外出与回流并存的趋势,大量的流动人口回流对中国的新型城镇化和城乡发展产生了重要影响,是探索中国城乡关系变化的重要视角。论文采用2016年全国流动人口卫生计生动态监测调查数据,建立二分类Logistic模型,对全国跨省流动人口回流意愿的空间差异和影响因素进行分析。研究结果表明：① 具有回流意愿的流动人口具有相似的人口学特征,包括年龄较大、受教育水平较低、没有稳定的婚姻状态等;② 跨省流动人口的回流意愿具有明显的空间差异,从流入地来看,东南沿海地区和西部地区的流动人口回流意愿较高,从流出地来看,中部地区的流动人口回流意愿较高;③ 流动人口的回流意愿受到个人因素、流动因素、家庭因素、制度因素多个方面的影响,其中年龄、婚姻状况、受教育程度、进城务工时间、是否为独自流动、家庭月收入、现住房性质、社会保障制度对流动人口回流意愿具有显著影响。  相似文献   

区域滑坡因子敏感性的Logistic回归分析     

李雪平  唐辉明  周顺平 《地球科学与环境学报》2005,27(4):14-18

应用Logistic回归模型评价区域滑坡因子敏感性。将巫山县新址西区选作研究区,选取地形地貌、岩性特征、地质构造等因子,以MAPGIS地理信息系统为技术支撑,将全区按10 m×10 m大小划分为14 450个格网单元,每个格网单元作为一个样本数据,建立Logistic回归模型。对回归模型中取得的各项参数进行分析,得出坡度为15°~30°、坡高300 m以内、坡向南、岩性T2b1和T2b3、顺向坡2(β>α)和切向坡、距有影响的构造线60 m内为研究区滑坡的敏感因素。结果表明采用Logistic回归方法具有较高可信度,可为滑坡灾害的防治、预测及土地利用服务。  相似文献   

Landslide susceptibility analysis and its verification using likelihood ratio, logistic regression, and artificial neural network models: case study of Youngin, Korea   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  

Saro Lee  Joo-Hyung Ryu  Ii-Soo Kim 《Landslides》2007,4(4):327-338

The likelihood ratio, logistic regression, and artificial neural networks models are applied and verified for analysis of landslide susceptibility in Youngin, Korea, using the geographic information system. From a spatial database containing such data as landslide location, topography, soil, forest, geology, and land use, the 14 landslide-related factors were calculated or extracted. Using these factors, landslide susceptibility indexes were calculated by likelihood ratio, logistic regression, and artificial neural network models. Before the calculation, the study area was divided into two sides (west and east) of equal area, for verification of the models. Thus, the west side was used to assess the landslide susceptibility, and the east side was used to verify the derived susceptibility. The results of the landslide susceptibility analysis were verified using success and prediction rates. The verification results showed satisfactory agreement between the susceptibility map and the existing data on landslide locations.  相似文献