基于逻辑回归模型和确定性系数的崩滑流危险性区划   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

刘明学  陈祥  杨珊妮 《工程地质学报》2014,22(6):1250-1256

崩滑流是崩塌、滑坡和泥石流地质灾害的总称。本文根据逻辑回归模型和贵州省崩滑流地质灾害发生的确定性系数CF,统计贵州省内崩滑流发生概率与其影响因子之间的函数关系; 并利用GIS技术编制贵州省崩滑流地质灾害危险性区划图。首先根据影响因子子集中已发崩滑流灾害面积和影响因子子集面积来计算崩滑流地质灾害发生的确定性系数CF; 其次将灾害是否发生作为因变量,影响因子子集发生崩滑流地质灾害的确定性系数CF作为自变量,应用逻辑回归模型统计分析它们之间的函数关系; 然后利用GIS技术计算研究区内各独立属性单元发生崩滑流地质灾害的概率p,按p值10等分标准将研究区划分为10个危险性等级区,并绘制贵州省崩滑流地质灾害危险性区划图; 最后用已发崩滑流地质灾害的分布数据来检验危险性区划的效果。研究结果表明:本文根据逻辑回归模型和崩滑流地质灾害发生的确定性系数CF,将贵州省分为Ⅰ～Ⅹ的10个崩滑流地质灾害危险性等级区与实际情况基本符合,能够良好地反映贵州省境内发生崩滑流地质灾害的难易程度。  相似文献   

多维邻近性对流动人口回流意愿的影响——基于中国流动人口动态监测数据的实证     

李雨婷  喻忠磊  苗长虹  张静  袁留阳  侯晓静 《地理科学进展》2022,41(8):1403-1415

随着城市产业转型升级和县域经济快速发展,人口回流已成为现阶段中国人口迁移与流动过程中的重要组成部分,回流劳动力是乡村振兴和新型城镇化的重要力量,对于区域协调发展意义重大。距离是人口流动空间选择的核心解释变量,在多维邻近性视角下探究多种距离对流动人口回流的影响,有利于深化对人口回流机制的理解。论文借鉴多维邻近性分析框架,基于2016年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据,采用二元Logistic回归模型探究地理、制度和社会邻近性对流动人口回流意愿的影响。研究表明：① 回流群体主要是受教育水平较低的大龄已婚流动人口,其在劳动力市场不占优势,但家庭对其情感需求与依赖较大,回流意愿明显。② 不同维度邻近性均对流动人口回流意愿有较强解释力,地理、制度和社会邻近性对回流意愿均有显著负向影响,长距离跨省或跨方言区迁移的劳动力回流意愿更为强烈。③ 不同邻近性对回流意愿的影响存在群体异质性。高学历群体回流意愿受其所在流入地参保情况的抑制,同时受到方言和地理距离的不同影响;新生代流动人口则较易受非正式制度邻近性影响而选择回流;长期外出劳动力的回流意愿会因其已熟悉流入地方言并在流入地积极参保而降低。  相似文献   

千河流域土地利用空间格局模拟及其影响因素分析   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

王美霞  任志远  王永明 《测绘科学》2013,38(4)

本文以黄土高原生态脆弱区千河流域为研究对象,遴选出影响土地利用空间分布的关键自然和社会经济因子,在考虑空间数据自相关性影响的基础上,综合利用GIS空间分析和二元Logistic回归分析等方法,构建2005年千河流域耕地、林地和草地三种主要地类空间分布概率二元Logistic回归模型,对该流域土地利用空间格局进行模拟和分析.结果表明,模拟结果较为理想,且不同驱动因子对不同地类空间分布格局的影响程度不同.  相似文献   

Driving forces analysis of reservoir wetland evolution in Beijing during 1984–2010     

宫兆宁  李洪  赵文吉  宫辉力 《地理学报(英文版)》2013,23(4):753-768

The reservoir wetland, which is the largest artificial wetland in Beijing, constitutes one of the important urban ecological infrastructures. Considering two elements of natural environment and socio-economy, this paper established the driving factor indexing system of Beijing reservoir wetland evolution. Natural environment driving factors include precipitation, temperature, entry water and groundwater depth; social economic driving factors include resident population, urbanization rate and per capita GDP. Using multi-temporal Landsat TM images from 1984 to 2010 in Beijing, the spatial extent and the distribution of Beijing reservoir wetlands were extracted, and the change of the wetland area about the three decade years were analyzed. Logistic regression model was used to explore for each of the three periods： from 1984 to 1998, from 1998 to 2004 and from 2004 to 2010. The results showed that the leading driving factors and their influences on reservoir wetland evolution were different for each period. During 1984-1998, two natural environment indices： average annual precipitation and entry water index were the major factors driving the increase in wetland area with the contribution rate of Logistic regression being 5.78 and 3.50, respectively, and caused the wetland growth from total area of 104.93 km 2 to 219.96 km 2 . From 1998 to 2004, as the impact of human activities intensified the main driving factors were the number of residents, groundwater depth and urbanization rate with the contribution rate of Logistic regression 9.41, 9.18, and 7.77, respectively, and caused the wetland shrinkage rapidly from the total area of 219.96 km 2 to 95.71 km 2 . During 2004-2010, reservoir wetland evolution was impacted by both natural and socio-economic factors, and the dominant driving factors were urbanization rate and precipitation with the contribution rate of 6.62 and 4.22, respectively, and caused the wetland total area growth slightly to 109.73 km 2 .  相似文献   

基于Logistic回归的陕南秦巴山区降雨型滑坡预测方法   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

赵晓萌  蔡新玲  雷向杰  田亮  卫星君 《冰川冻土》2019,41(1):175-182

通过建立陕南秦巴山区降雨型滑坡灾害数据库,分析了不同降雨因子的雨强分布,计算了降水突发型滑坡灾害、降水滞后型滑坡灾害的雨强与滑坡发生概率的相关系数,采用Logistic回归方法确定不同时效降雨因子,得到陕南秦巴山区降雨型滑坡预测模型,并利用滑坡灾害实例,运用ROC曲线和kappa系数法对模型进行了验证。结果表明：滑坡前第m日降雨量R_dm(m=0,1,2)及综合雨量R_c四个降雨因子为诱发降雨型滑坡较为显著的因子。当降雨强度≥75 mm·h^-1时,最易引起突发型滑坡;当连续降水达到2 d,且24小时雨量达到小雨或中雨时,应警惕滞后型滑坡灾害的发生。模型预测准确率达82.1%,ROC曲线的AUC值为0.836,kappa系数为0.616,验证结果显示该模型可靠。研究成果可作为陕南秦巴山区降雨型滑坡预报预警研究工作的重要参考。  相似文献   

粉质黏土变形特性的冻融循环效应及其双屈服面本构模型     

胡田飞  刘建坤  王天亮  岳祖润 《岩土力学》2019,(3):987-997

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渔业生产者参与实施捕捞限额制度意愿的影响因素研究          下载免费PDF全文

陆佼  杨正勇 《海洋开发与管理》2017,34(10):23-27

文章以上海市、浙江省和山东省113户渔业生产者的问卷调研数据为基础,通过运用Logistic回归模型分析渔业生产者参与实施捕捞限额制度意愿的影响因素。研究表明,年龄、受教育水平、渔船总功率、年均捕捞量、捕捞收入与家庭总收入比例、举报奖励额与超额价值比例以及年监管次数均对渔业生产者参与实施捕捞限额制度的意愿产生显著影响。基于实证研究结果,提出应加大渔业培训力度,切实控制渔船功率,暂不设立举报机制以及结合目前的投入控制制度推行循序渐进、逐步严格的监管机制等建议,以提高渔业生产者参与实施捕捞限额制度的意愿,为制定有效的渔业资源管理制度提供参考依据,推进渔业现代化改革。  相似文献   

鄱阳湖平原粮食主产区农户水稻熟制决策行为分析     

李鹏  肖池伟  封志明  姜鲁光  刘影 《地理研究》2015,34(12):2257-2267

中国南方粮食生产区水稻熟制受市场和农业政策等影响频繁波动,对保障区域粮食安全构成了一定挑战。以鄱阳湖平原粮食主产区为研究单元,基于问卷调查法于2014-2015年收集了19个县（区）共682例农户水稻熟制调查问卷资料,分析该区水稻熟制现状及农户熟制决策行为,并利用Logistic回归法分析农户水稻熟制变化因素及其影响程度。结果表明：① 研究区内60.4%的受调查农户只选择种双季稻,26.7%的受调查农户只选择种单季稻,10.2%的农户同时种植双季稻和单季稻。因此双季稻是鄱阳湖平原粮食主产区主要的水稻种植制度。然而,受调查双季稻农户中有5.4%因其低丘岗地田块缺水灌溉或低地田块易长期受渍涝影响而只种早稻或晚稻,而农户弃耕、转出全部土地及耕地他用的占比达3.7%。② 受调查农户双季稻种植比单季稻种植的纯收入高323.9元/亩,但产投比和利润率单季稻比双季稻每亩分别高出15.9%和115.9%;③ 收入、灌溉条件、劳动力、田块质量、田块距离等是影响农户水稻熟制决策的主要因素,其中收入和灌溉条件分别占水稻熟制变化驱动因素的36.6%和28.5%。  相似文献   

A Study on the Effect Factors of Community Participation in Tourism:Based on the Logistic Regression Analysis of Xingwen World Geopark     

SHUI Wei  XU Xue-yi  WEI Ya-li  CHEN Yin  WANG Xing-gui  ZHOU Hu  WANG Ya-wen  WANG Li  OU YANG Shu-jian 《四川地质学报》2009,(Z1):120-123

In order to find out the factors which influence community participation in tourism,several effect factors are summed up through the investigation of the local residents and the analysis of the logistic regression of the data gained from Xingwen world Geopark.Results indicated there are several main influencing factors of community participation such as the comparative benefit of tourist industry,participant residents’ subjective wishes,preference consciousness of working opportunity obtainment in the tourist enterprise and participant skills.Based on above investigation data and field travel,the paper put forward several methods about how to enhance the residents’ participant degree:increasing the comparative benefit of tourist industry,enhancing the attraction of tourism for boosting participant wishes,improving the preference consciousness on obtaining working opportunity in tourism industry and cultivating residents’ participant skills through training.  相似文献   

Rainfall and Obtaining Information Regarding Earthquake Development Processes from Groundwater Level     

Li Yong  Fang Wei  Ma Li 《中国地震研究》2008,22(1)

Many factors can cause changes of groundwater level, such as the development process of an earthquake, rainfall, solid earth tides etc. Among these we are interested in information regarding earthquake development processes. Eliminating the influence of various disturbance factors is an effective way to obtain seismic development process information contained in the groundwater level. This paper provides two different ways to remove the rainfall effect, and compares the two methods by means of correlation analysis. Furthermore, based on these a logistic regression model is established to describe the seismicity level.  相似文献