Effects of demand estimates on the evaluation and optimality of service centre locations     

Matej Cebecauer  Konštantín Rosina  Ľuboš Buzna 《International journal of geographical information science》2016,30(4):765-784

Public service systems, such as emergency health care, police or fire brigades, are critical for day-to-day functioning of the society. To design and operate these systems efficiently much data needs to be collected and properly utilised. Here, we use the OpenStreetMap (OSM) data to model the demand points (DPs), which approximate the geographical location of customers, and the road network, which is used to access or distribute services. We consider all inhabitants as customers, and therefore to estimate the demand, we use the available population grids. People are changing their location in the course of the day and thus the demand for services is changing accordingly. In this paper, we investigate how the used demand estimate affects the optimal design of a public service system. We calculate and compare efficient designs corresponding to two demand models, a night-time demand model when the majority of inhabitants rest at home and the demand model derived from the 24-hour average of the population density. We propose a simple measure to quantify the differences between population grids and we estimate how the size of differences affects the optimal structure of a public service system. Our analyses reveal that the efficiency of the service system is not only dependent on the placement strategy, but an inappropriate demand model has significant effects when designing a system as well as when evaluating its efficiency.  相似文献   

渤海湾西岸QX02孔Ⅱ海的识别及OSL年龄     

陈永胜  王福  姜兴钰  黎伟麒  李建芬  商志文 《地质通报》2016,35(10):1600-1606

以渤海湾沿海低地的QX02孔为研究对象,进行了沉积岩石学分析和底栖有孔虫统计,结合加速器质谱~(14)C测年和光释光(optically stimulated luminescence,OSL)测年,探讨了该孔记录的第Ⅱ海相层埋深和形成时代。第Ⅱ海相层厚度11.4m,记录相对海面高度-26.83~-15.43m。AMS~(14)C年龄表明,Ⅱ海形成于MIS 3早期、甚至更早。OSL年代学研究显示,Ⅱ海样品等效剂量离散度较高,并且主要集中在2个区间,计算得到新、老2个年龄阶段。基于OSL测年原理的常规判断,认为较老的83.5~62.6ka阶段系受曝光不充分组分的影响,通常采用较年轻的51.9~39.9ka阶段为QX02孔的Ⅱ海沉积年龄。但是,较老的一组年龄从新的视角,暗示了可能的原始沉积过程及相应的海侵发生时间,因而具有重要的年代学和沉积学意义。  相似文献   

Ozone and climate governance: An implausible path dependence     

《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2018,350(7):435-441

Many observers and commentators have used the case of ozone science and politics as a role model for climate science and politics. Two crucial assumptions underpin this view: (1) that science drives policymaking, and (2) that a unified, international science assessment is essential to provide “one voice” of science that speaks to policymakers. I will argue that these assumptions are theoretically problematic and empirically questionable. We should realize that both cases, ozone and climate, are profoundly different and only have superficial similarities. Ozone science developed late, but efforts to protect the ozone layer happened swiftly. The relation between carbon dioxide and climate change has been studied for many decades, but efforts to control global warming have failed so far. I will discuss the linear model of the science-policy relationship and use the typology of tame and wicked problems to explain this stark difference.  相似文献   

Sinian-Cambrian Tectonic Framework in the Tarim Basin and its Influences on the Paleogeography of the Early CambrianEI北大核心CSCD     

Yan W.  Wu G.  Zhang Y.  Yang G.  Lou H.  Wang X. 《大地构造与成矿学》2018,(3):455-466

Due to strong remodification and sparse trace remnants, tectonic restoration is critical for the reconstructing of the paleography and basin-prototype in the multiple-cycles superimposed basin, which is also fundamental for the hydrocarbon exploration of the deep marine carbonate in the Tarim Basin. This study presents the tectonic framework of the transition phase from the Sinian to the Cambrian Period and its constrains on the paleography of the Cambrian in the Tarim Basin based on comprehensive analysis of new geochronology data, seismic data and regional tectonic data. The results showed that (1) there is a large regional unconformity between the Cambrian and Precambrian, suggesting a discontinuous deposition from the Sinian to the Cambrian that is contrary to the major view; (2) a broad flattened paleotopography formed before Cambrian Period, which is favorable for the wide epicontinental sea environment and a gentle homoclinal ramp platform development in the early Cambrian, and the residual basement low relief uplifts that influence the microfacies differentiation in the carbonate platform; (3) the Cambrian carbonate platform has been involved much into the marginal orogenic belts, and the proto-platform is probably of 200 km out of the present basin in S-N direction; (4) there is a weak extensional setting in the Cambrian-Early Ordovician rather than a strong rifting setting with a large aulacogen into the platform, in which a inter-platform shallow depression and stable ramp platform developed in the Cambrian; (5) there is not troughs, but rather low relief uplifts developed in the Early Cambrian in the southwestern Tarim Basin, and lack of large uplifts along the carbonate platform margins; (6) it is showed a broad architecture of platform-wide slope-ocean basin from the inner Tarim plate to its margin in the Cambrian Period. Considering the basin prototype, the restoration of the tectono-paleography in the early Cambrian in the Tarim Basin is distinct from those of the previously proposed. We propose that a gentle pattern with “two platforms and one inter-depression” in E-W striking other than multiple small platform constrained in the basin, and further subdivision of the western platform with inner platform low uplift and sag in N-S striking, which is possibly inherited from the basement architecture. On the outer of the united platform, there is probably broad gentle slope for transition to ocean basin. We therefore argue that tectonic restoration is crucial for reconstruction of the paleogeography and basin prototype, especially for basins experienced multiphase of tectonic cycles. © 2018, Science Press. All right reserved.  相似文献   

Structural characteristics of the KPR-CBR triple-junction inferred from gravity and magnetic interpretations,Philippine Sea Plate     

《China Geology》2021,4(4):541-552

The intersection of the Kyushu-Palau Ridge (KPR) and the Central Basin Rift (CBR) of the West Philippine Basin (WPB) is a relic of a trench-trench-rift (TTR) type triple-junction, which preserves some pivotal information on the cessation of the seafloor spreading of the WPB, the emplacement and disintegration of the proto-Izu-Bonin-Mariana (IBM) Arc, and the transition from initial rifting to steady-state spreading of the Parece Vela Basin (PVB). However, the structural characteristics of this triple-junction have not been thoroughly understood. In this paper, using the newly acquired multi-beam bathymetric, gravity, and magnetic data obtained by the Qingdao Institute of Marine Geology, China Geological Survey, the authors depict the topographic, gravity, and magnetic characteristics of the triple-junction and adjacent region. Calculations including the upward continuations and total horizontal derivatives of gravity anomaly are also performed to highlight the major structural features and discontinuities. Based on these works, the morphological and structural features and their formation mechanisms are analyzed. The results show that the last episode amagmatic extension along the CBR led to the formation of a deep rift valley, which extends eastward and incised the KPR. The morphological and structural fabrics of the KPR near and to the south of the triple-junction are consistent with those of the western PVB, manifesting as a series of NNE-SSW- and N-S-trending ridges and troughs, which were produced by the extensional faults associated with the initial rifting of the PVB. The superposition of the above two reasons induced the prominent discontinuity of the KPR in deep and shallow crustal structures between 15°N–15°30′N and 13°30′N–14°N. Combined with previous authors’ results, we propose that the stress produced by the early spreading of the PVB transmitted westward and promoted the final stage amagmatic extension of the CBR. The eastward propagation of the CBR destroyed the KPR, of which the magmatism had decayed or ceased at that time. The destruction mechanism of the KPR associated with the rifting of the PVB varies along strike the KPR. Adjacent to the triple-junction, the KPR was destroyed mainly due to the oblique intersection of the PVB rifting center. Whereas south of the triple-junction, the KPR was destroyed by the E-W-directional extensional faulting on its whole width.©2021 China Geology Editorial Office.  相似文献   

Policy options to streamline the carbon market for agricultural nitrous oxide emissions     

Meredith T. Niles  Hannah Waterhouse  Robert Parkhurst  Eileen L. McLellan  Sara Kroopf 《Climate Policy》2019,19(7):893-907

The majority of emissions of nitrous oxide – a potent greenhouse gas (GHG) – are from agricultural sources, particularly nitrogen fertilizer applications. A growing focus on these emission sources has led to the development in the United States of GHG offset protocols that could enable payment to farmers for reducing fertilizer use or implementing other nitrogen management strategies. Despite the development of several protocols, the current regional scope is narrow, adoption by farmers is low, and policy implementation of protocols has a significant time lag. Here we utilize existing research and policy structures to propose an ‘umbrella’ approach for nitrogen management GHG emissions protocols that has the potential to streamline the policy implementation and acceptance of such protocols. We suggest that the umbrella protocol could set forth standard definitions common across multiple protocol options, and then modules could be further developed as scientific evidence advances. Modules could be developed for specific crops, regions, and practices. We identify a policy process that could facilitate this development in concert with emerging scientific research and conclude by acknowledging potential benefits and limitations of the approach.

Key policy insights

• Agricultural greenhouse gas market options are growing, but are still underutilized

• Streamlining protocol development through an umbrella process could enable quicker development of protocols across new crops, regions, and practices

• Effective protocol development must not compromise best available science and should follow a rigorous pathway to ensure appropriate implementation

  相似文献   

Mid-Century Strategies: pathways to a low-carbon future?     

Narayan Gopinathan  Narayan S. Subramanian 《Climate Policy》2019,19(9):1088-1101

Since the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015, both national and subnational governments have been encouraged to submit Mid-Century Strategies, outlining how they would reach their deep decarbonization goals. However, research on the design and potential of these strategies has been very limited. To address this shortcoming, here we assess 13 such strategies – six national, seven subnational – in a comparative fashion. We find that the energy-economy-climate models underpinning these strategies are generally of high quality, though national jurisdictions generally performed better. However, most strategies are not plausible without significant changes to policy, and the industrial sector in particular presents a major limitation. The strategies are helpful in revealing this gap, but much works remains to be done for plausible mid-century decarbonization trajectories to become a reality. We also find that public input and societal participation in strategy building were a double-edged sword depending on the constellation of domestic preferences.

• Governmental Mid-Century Strategies for deep decarbonization are underpinned by high-quality energy-economy-climate models

• Governments’ proposed strategies require significant new policies, as even among jurisdictions that have an MCS, extant policies are insufficient to achieve deep decarbonization

• No jurisdiction studied has yet put forward a plausible decarbonization policy for the industrial sector.

• Public input and societal participation can be a double-edged sword: they can increase durability of the strategy but also enable opposing forces to mobilize against ambitious changes.

  相似文献   

China’s national carbon emissions trading scheme: lessons from the pilot emission trading schemes,academic literature,and known policy details     

Thomas Stoerk  Daniel J. Dudek  Jia Yang 《Climate Policy》2019,19(4):472-486

Upon completion, China’s national emissions trading scheme (C-ETS) will be the largest carbon market in the world. Recent research has evaluated China’s seven pilot ETSs launched from 2013 on, and academic literature on design aspects of the C-ETS abounds. Yet little is known about the specific details of the upcoming C-ETS. This article combines currently understood details of China’s national carbon market with lessons learned in the pilot schemes as well as from the academic literature. Our review follows the taxonomy of Emissions Trading in Practice: A Handbook on Design and Implementation (Partnership for Market Readiness & International Carbon Action Partnership. (2016). Retrieved from www.worldbank.org): The 10 categories are: scope, cap, distribution of allowances, use of offsets, temporal flexibility, price predictability, compliance and oversight, stakeholder engagement and capacity building, linking, implementation and improvements.

Key policy insights

• Accurate emissions data is paramount for both design and implementation, and its availability dictates the scope of the C-ETS.

• The stakeholder consultative process is critical for effective design, and China is able to build on its extensive experience through the pilot ETSs.

• Current policies and positions on intensity targets and Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) credits constrain the market design of the C-ETS.

• Most critical is the nature of the cap. The currently discussed rate-based cap with ex post adjustment is risky. Instead, an absolute, mass-based emissions cap coupled with the conditional use of permits would allow China to maintain flexibility in the carbon market while ensuring a limit on CO₂ emissions.

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International and national climate policies for aviation: a review     

Jörgen Larsson  Anna Elofsson  Thomas Sterner  Jonas Åkerman 《Climate Policy》2019,19(6):787-799

Aviation constitutes about 2.5% of all energy-related CO₂ emissions and in addition there are non-CO₂ effects. In 2016, the ICAO decided to implement a Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) and in 2017 the EU decided on faster emission reductions in its Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), which since 2012 includes the aviation sector. The effects of these policies on the expected development of air travel emissions from 2017 to 2030 have been analyzed. For the sample country Sweden, the analysis shows that when emissions reductions in other sectors are attributed to the aviation sector as a result of the EU ETS and CORSIA, carbon emissions are expected to reduce by ?0.8% per year (however if non-CO₂ emissions are included in the analysis, then emissions will increase). This is much less than what is needed to achieve the 2°C target. Our analysis of potential national aviation policy instruments shows that there are legally feasible options that could mitigate emissions in addition to the EU ETS and CORSIA. Distance-based air passenger taxes are common among EU Member States and through increased ticket prices these taxes can reduce demand for air travel and thus reduce emissions. Tax on jet fuel is an option for domestic aviation and for international aviation if bilateral agreements are concluded. A quota obligation for biofuels is a third option.

Key policy insights

• Existing international climate policies for aviation will not deliver any major emission reductions.

• Policymakers who want to significantly push the aviation sector to contribute to meeting the 2°C target need to work towards putting in place tougher international policy instruments in the long term, and simultaneously implement temporary national policy instruments in the near-term.

• Distance-based air passenger taxes, carbon taxes on jet fuel and quota obligations for biofuels are available national policy options; if they are gradually increased, and harmonized with other countries, they can help to significantly reduce emissions.

  相似文献   

Perceived fairness and public acceptability of carbon pricing: a review of the literature     

Sara Maestre-Andrés  Stefan Drews  Jeroen van den Bergh 《Climate Policy》2019,19(9):1186-1204

While carbon pricing is widely seen as a crucial element of climate policy and has been implemented in many countries, it also has met with strong resistance. We provide a comprehensive overview of public perceptions of the fairness of carbon pricing and how these affect policy acceptability. To this end, we review evidence from empirical studies on how individuals judge personal, distributional and procedural aspects of carbon taxes and cap-and-trade. In addition, we examine preferences for particular redistributive and other uses of revenues generated by carbon pricing and their role in instrument acceptability. Our results indicate a high concern over distributional effects, particularly in relation to policy impacts on poor people, in turn reducing policy acceptability. In addition, people show little trust in the capacities of governments to put the revenues of carbon pricing to good use. Somewhat surprisingly, most studies do not indicate clear public preferences for using revenues to ensure fairer policy outcomes, notably by reducing its regressive effects. Instead, many people prefer using revenues for ‘environmental projects’ of various kinds. We end by providing recommendations for improving public acceptability of carbon pricing. One suggestion to increase policy acceptability is combining the redistribution of revenue to vulnerable groups with the funding for environmental projects, such as on renewable energy.

Key policy insights

• If people perceive carbon pricing instruments as fair, this increases policy acceptability and support.

• People’s satisfaction with information provided by the government about the policy instrument increases acceptability.

• While people express high concern over uneven distribution of the policy burden, they often prefer using carbon pricing revenues for environmental projects instead of compensation for inequitable outcomes.

• Recent studies find that people’s preferences shift to using revenues for making policy fairer if they better understand the functioning of carbon pricing, notably that relatively high prices of CO₂-intensive goods and services reduce their consumption.

• Combining the redistribution of revenue to support both vulnerable groups and environmental projects, such as on renewable energy, seems to most increase policy acceptability.

  相似文献