Volcanic risk ranking for Auckland, New Zealand. I: Methodology and hazard investigation     

Christina Magill  Russell Blong 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2005,67(4):331-339

Volcanic eruptions typically produce a number of hazards, and many regions are at risk from more than one volcano or volcanic field. So that detailed risk assessments can be carried out, it is necessary to rank potential volcanic hazards and events in terms of risk. As it is often difficult to make accurate predictions regarding the characteristics of future eruptions, a method for ranking hazards and events has been developed that does not rely on precise values. Risk is calculated individually for each hazard from each source as the product of likelihood, extent and effect, based on the parameters order of magnitude. So that multiple events and outcomes can be considered, risk is further multiplied by the relative probability of the event occurring (probability_e) and the relative importance of the outcome (importance_o). By adding the values obtained, total risk is calculated and a ranking can be carried out.This method was used to rank volcanic hazards and events that may impact the Auckland Region, New Zealand. Auckland is at risk from the Auckland volcanic field, Okataina volcanic centre, Taupo volcano, Tuhua volcano, Tongariro volcanic centre, and Mt. Taranaki volcano. Relative probabilities were determined for each event, with the highest given to Mt. Taranaki. Hazards considered were, for local events: tephra fall, scoria fall and ballistic impacts, lava flow, base surge and associated shock waves, tsunami, volcanic gases and acid rain, earthquakes and ground deformation, mudflows and mudfills, lightning and flooding; and for distal events: tephra fall, pyroclastic flows, poisonous gases and acid rain, mudflows and mudfills, climate variations and earthquakes. Hazards from each source were assigned values for likelihood, with the largest for tephra fall from all sources, earthquakes and ground deformation, lava flows, scoria fall and base surge for an Auckland eruption on land, and earthquakes and ground deformation from an Auckland eruption in the ocean. The largest values for extent were for tephra fall and climate variation from each of the distal centres. However, these parameters do not give a true indication of risk. In a companion paper the effect of each hazard is fully investigated and the risk ranking completed.  相似文献   

近50年气候变化对滦河上游径流的影响     

王亮  朱仲元  刘轩晓  何桥 《高原气象》2012,31(4):1158-1165

为了解近50年滦河上游气温和降水气候的变化特征、趋势及其对该流域径流量的影响,利用1956-2009年滦河上游的实测气温、降水量和径流深资料,分析了该流域气温、降水和径流深的年均和季度变化的时间序列,并建立了该流域气候变化对径流影响的复相关回归模型。结果表明,年径流深随着年降水量的减少而减少,随着年平均气温的升高而减少;春、夏和秋季的径流深随着同期降水量和气温的变化趋势与年际变化趋势基本一致,但冬季径流深则相反,而且其变化幅度非常小。  相似文献   

新余市1959-2005年降水多时间尺度特征     

傅文兵  袁春 《气象与减灾研究》2009,32(3):63-66

应用一维Morlet小波变换分析方法对新余市降水的多时间尺度进行分析,发现新余市降水除在整个时域中有明显的3—5a的周期变化外,其他尺度周期信号的强弱在时-频域中的分布具有很强的局部特征。但无论是较大时间尺度,还是较小时间尺度,新余市年降水、汛期降水均处于偏少期,且近期偏少趋势仍较明显;伏秋季降水则处于偏少末期,有向偏多转化的趋势。  相似文献   

陇西祖厉河流域降水插值方法的对比分析   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

赵传燕  冯兆东  南忠仁 《高原气象》2008,27(1):208-214

降水作为五水转化和水量平衡的一个组成部分,在土壤-植被-大气连续体物质与能量转化中起着重要的作用,是分布式水文模型中的重要参量.本研究选择了陇西黄土高原祖厉河流域,采用5种空间插值方法,对该区域降水的时空分布规律进行研究.经分析比较,空间插值法中趋势面方法最佳.趋势面方法经统计模型调整,使得降水模拟精度有所提高.从模拟结果来看:该流域降水呈现明显的纬度地带性分布,自南向北逐渐减少;降水受地形影响较大,海拔高度每降低100 m,降水量平均减少20 mm;流域绝大地区多年平均降水量分布在280～430 mm范围内.该高时空分辨率的降水模拟模型对区域水资源分析及生态环境治理有着重要的意义.  相似文献   

Multiple solutions in preliminary orbit determination from three observations     

Giovanni Federico Gronchi 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2009,103(4):301-326

Charlier’s theory (1910) provides a geometric interpretation of the occurrence of multiple solutions in Laplace’s method of preliminary orbit determination, assuming geocentric observations. We introduce a generalization of this theory allowing to take into account topocentric observations, that is observations made from the surface of the rotating Earth. The generalized theory works for both Laplace’s and Gauss’ methods. We also provide a geometric definition of a curve that generalizes Charlier’s limiting curve, separating regions with a different number of solutions. The results are generically different from Charlier’s: they may change according to the value of a parameter that depends on the observations.  相似文献   

面向土地规划管理的"多规合一"信息平台建设应用初探     

江洋  陈磊  吴长彬 《测绘与空间地理信息》2017,40(Z1)

近年来,许多城市以开展"多规合一"信息平台建设为抓手推进"多规合一"工作,以期建立统一的空间规划体系.但是,大部分地区实践的"多规合一"信息管理平台建设侧重于多规空间数据展示和协同审批等方面,而对面向土地规划管理方面并无相关应用.本文首先尝试对土地规划管理与多规合一的关系进行探讨;进而梳理出面向土地规划管理的多规合一的信息平台建设思路;最后重点研究解决了土地集约利用管理、建设用地选址预审、土地规划实施效果评价等功能的关键技术问题.  相似文献   

瑞雷波多阶模式频散曲线稀疏正则化反演方法研究     

崔岩  王彦飞 《地球物理学报》2022,65(3):1086-1095

目前瑞雷波多阶模式频散曲线反演中仅考虑数据的拟合,缺乏对模型的约束,不能很好地刻画地层间断面的问题,针对此问题,研究了瑞雷波多阶模式频散曲线稀疏正则化反演方法.正演模拟基于广义反射-透射系数法,数值计算上采用一种快速求根方法,与二等分方法相比,能够在很短的时间内达到最优的收敛效果;反演建模时采用L1范数正则化方法对模型...  相似文献   

玉米冠层反射率及净辐射的估算   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

吕厚荃  于贵瑞 《应用气象学报》1999,10(4):421-427

在1994~1996年3年田间试验的基础上,根据玉米生长状况及其冠层特征,选取包括植株高度、平均叶面积密度、农田覆被率等植物特征量组成的植物参数——综合植被系数来描述玉米冠层状况,并以此为因子来估算玉米冠层的反射率和净辐射,取得了良好的结果。  相似文献   

Groundfish management in transition within the Scotia-Fundy area of Canada   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Sinclair  M.; O'Boyle  R. N.; Burke  D. L.; Peacock  F. G. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》1999,56(6):1014-1023

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自适应虚同相轴方法压制地震层间多次波          下载免费PDF全文

刘嘉辉  胡天跃  彭更新 《地球物理学报》2018,61(3):1196-1210

地震数据中发育的层间多次波是影响速度分析和偏移成像的精度和可靠性的关键.通常情况下,层间多次波的动校正量、叠加速度和频率与一次波并无明显差异,从而对识别、预测和压制多次波带来了极大挑战.传统虚同相轴方法基于物理图像和定性公式,其预测的层间多次波振幅和相位精度难以满足实际需求,造成了其对匹配算法的过度依赖.本文针对传统虚同相轴方法的理论缺陷和计算精度问题,通过理论推导得到了新的自适应虚同相轴方法.相比于传统方法,自适应虚同相轴方法能够显著提高压制多次波能力,同时减少对匹配算法的依赖.本文给出了自适应虚同相轴方法的推导过程,并运用一维和二维模型算例验证了方法相较于传统虚同相轴方法的多次波预测精度优势.通过在PLUTO模型和实际陆地地震数据上的应用实例,证明了本文新研究的自适应虚同相轴方法对去除层间多次波,恢复并突出目标储层同相轴,提高地震成像分辨率的显著作用.  相似文献