THE IMPACTS OF INTERACTION OF A TYPHOON WITH THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH ON ITS TRACK AFTER THE RECURVATURE     

王凯  陈华  王金梅 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2017,23(2):202-209

Three typhoon cases are selected to conduct a series of simulations that are initialized from sequential analyses. The results show that the forecast error in crucial area where a tropical cyclone (TC) interactes with the upstream trough is highly correlated to the track forecast error after the TC recurvature. Furthermore, sensitivity experiments confirm that the developments of the midlatitude downstream circulations and then the TC track after its recurvature are highly sensitive to the TC intensity and its location relative to the upstream trough, which can give an example or one way of sensitivity of the TC track to the TC-trough interaction. If the TC interacts with the upstream trough more strongly (e.g., the TC being intensified or getting closer to the upstream trough), the downstream circulations will be more meridional, thus the TC track will be more northerly and westerly; otherwise, the downstream circulations will be more zonal, and the TC track will be more southerly and easterly.  相似文献   

2003—2014年河南春季暴雨特征及影响系统分析     

鲁坦  徐文明  俞小鼎 《气象与环境科学》2017,40(2):92-99

通过对2003—2014年河南春季暴雨系统性分析,揭示春季暴雨时空分布特征,归纳总结暴雨预报着眼点。结果表明：2007年之后河南春季暴雨明显增多,易发区位于河南的偏南、偏东部一带,其中驻马店和信阳出现暴雨的概率最大;4月中旬到5月底为河南春季暴雨易发期,此阶段南方暖湿空气已明显加强,东移高空槽增多,在高空槽前,地面“倒V形槽”容易自长江流域上游向东北方向伸展,随着地面气流辐合加强,锋生易发生于倒槽中。河南春季暴雨的天气学物理概念模型大致分为低槽/低涡型和短波槽/切变线型两类。前者主要表现为经向度大的低槽或一致的西南气流影响,中低层低涡明显加强,系统缓慢东移,湿层很厚,多以稳定性、混合性降水为主,雨量明显偏大,但出现的概率不太大;后者出现的概率较大,但雨量相对偏小,多伴有高架雷暴,冰雹、雷暴大风天气也有,但不多,其对流层中层明显表现为多短波槽快速东移,当河南上游出现强的暖脊,且短波槽和暖脊对应,850 hPa以上出现中性或弱的条件不稳定层结,低层有冷垫、逆温时,对流发展强。  相似文献   

曹妃甸海底深槽斜坡稳定性分析与评价     

褚宏宪  方中华  史慧杰  高小惠 《海洋工程》2016,34(3):114-122

海底斜坡稳定性受风暴潮、海底地震等诸多不确定因素影响,易发生失稳破坏,产生较大的海洋地质灾害。简要介绍海底斜坡稳定性分析方法,建立曹妃甸深槽典型斜坡计算模型,确定了模型计算的海底地形参数、地层结构参数、土体物理力学参数等指标,利用GEO-SLOPE斜坡分析软件进行海底斜坡稳定性定量计算,分析了工程建设前自然状态下以及在大规模工程建设后海底斜坡稳定性,并模拟分析了在大风浪和地震等极端条件下斜坡的稳定性,确定了海底斜坡失稳空间特征。首次采用数值计算对曹妃甸海底斜坡稳定性进行定量分析评价,可以为类似近海建设工程提供重要的参考作用。  相似文献   

台风"桃芝"北上加强原因浅析   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

李庆宝  黄明政  凌艺  耿敏  江敦双  徐晓亮 《海洋通报》2004,23(6):16-20

2001年8号台风“桃芝”,登陆填塞后又重新发展加强,并在北移中给山东半岛带来特大暴雨。本文通过分析认为,低值系统同位相叠加和冷空气侵入是台风重新发展加强的主要成因;而冷槽“逆转”和副热带高压从日本向朝鲜半岛发展,导致我国东部径向环流加强,南风急流加大,则是台风北移的主要原因。  相似文献   

Great earthquake at 7.3 ka inferred from tsunami deposits in the Sukumo Bay area,Southwestern Japan     

Futoshi Nanayama  Tomohiro Tsuji  Tatsuhiko Yamaguchi  Yasuo Kondo  Michiharu Ikeda  Toshimichi Nakanishi  Michiko Miwa  Chuki Hongo  Akira Furusawa  Mitsuhiro Kuwahata 《Island Arc》2021,30(1):e12422

Tsunami deposits in Kyushu Island, Southwestern Japan, have been attributed to the 7.3 ka Kikai caldera eruption, but their origin has not been confirmed. We analyzed an 83-cm-thick Holocene event deposit in the SKM core, obtained from incised valley fill in the coastal lowlands near Sukumo Bay, Southwestern Shikoku Island. We confirmed that the event deposit contains K-Ah volcanic ash from the 7.3 ka eruption. The base of the event deposit erodes the underlying inner-bay mud, and the deposit contains material from outside the local terrestrial and marine environment, including angular quartz porphyry from a small inland exposure, oyster shell debris, and a coral fragment. Benthic foraminifers and ostracods in the deposit indicate various habitats, some of which are outside Sukumo Bay. The sand matrix contains low-silica volcanic glass from the late stage of the Kikai caldera eruption. We also documented the same glass in an event deposit in the MIK1 core, from the incised Oyodo River valley in the Miyazaki Plain on Southeastern Kyushu. These two 7.3 ka tsunami deposits join other documented examples that are widely distributed in Southwestern Japan including the Bungo Channel and Beppu Bay in Eastern Kyushu, Tachibana Bay in Western Kyushu, and Zasa Pond on the Kii Peninsula as well as around the caldera itself. The tsunami deposits near the caldera have been divided into older and younger 7.3 ka tsunami deposits, the younger ones matching the set of widespread deposits. We attribute the younger 7.3 ka tsunami deposits to a large tsunami generated by a great interplate earthquake in the Northern part of the Ryukyu Trench and (or) the Western Nankai Trough just after the late stage of the Kikai caldera eruption and the older 7.3 ka tsunami deposits to a small tsunami generated by an interplate earthquake or Kikai caldera eruption.  相似文献   

The versatility of petrological modeling: Thermobarometry of high-pressure metabasites from the Renge and Sanbagawa belts and phase evolution during warm subduction at Nankai     

David Hernández-Uribe  Fabián Gutiérrez-Aguilar 《Island Arc》2021,30(1):e12406

Petrological modeling is a powerful technique to address different types of geological problems via phase-equilibria predictions at different pressure–temperature-composition conditions. Here, we show the versatility of this technique by (1) performing thermobarometrical calculations using phase equilibrium diagrams to explore the petrological evolution of high-pressure (HP) metabasites from the Renge and Sanbagawa belts, Japan and (2) forward-modeling the mineral–melt evolution of the subducted fresh and altered oceanic crust along the Nankai subduction zone geotherm at the Kii peninsula, Japan. In the first case, we selected three representative samples from these metamorphic belts: a glaucophane eclogite and a garnet glaucophane schist from the Renge belt (Omi area) and a quartz eclogite from the Sanbagawa belt (Besshi area). We calculated the peak metamorphic conditions at ~2.0–2.3 GPa and ~550–630 °C for the HP metabasites from the Renge belt, whereas for the quartz eclogite, the peak equilibrium conditions were calculated at 2.5–2.8 GPa and ~640–750 °C. According to our models, the quartz eclogite experienced partial melting after peak metamorphism. In terms of the petrological evolution of the subducted uppermost portion of the oceanic crust along the warm Nankai geotherm, our models show that fluid release occurs at ~20–60 km, likely promoting high pore-fluid pressure, and thus, seismicity at these depths; dehydration is controlled by chlorite breakdown. Our petrological models predict partial melting at >60 km, mainly driven by phengite and amphibole breakdown. According to our models, the melt proportion is relatively small, suggesting that slab anatexis is not an efficient mechanism for generating voluminous magmatism at these conditions. Modeled melt compositions correspond to high-SiO₂ adakites; these are similar to compositions found in the Daisen and Sambe volcanoes, in southwest Japan, suggesting that the modeled melts may serve as an analog to explain adakite petrogenesis.  相似文献   

基于DP算法的槽线自动判识     

代曦  李骞  顾大权 《气象科技》2016,44(1):36-40

槽线自动识别是天气图自动化分析的重要内容,但目前的气象槽线分析主要通过人工实现。为了能够实现槽线准确快速的自动提取,本文从等压线数据着手,提出了一种基于Douglas-Peucker算法的气象槽线自动识别方法。该方法通过Douglas-Peucker算法从等压线中提取曲线特征点作为槽点,充分保留了等压线曲线的主要特征和拓扑关系;依据由等压线拓扑结构设定的规则连接槽点构成候选曲线,进行槽脊线区分得到槽线识别结果。试验表明该方法能够实现槽线的自动分析,分析结果较为准确。  相似文献   

南海—西北太平洋地区低频振荡特征及其对TC群发过程的影响          下载免费PDF全文

金小霞  韩桂荣  占瑞芬  陈圣劼  何金海  张静 《大气科学学报》2016,39(2):198-208

根据中国气象局上海台风研究所整编的热带气旋最佳路径数据集(CMA-STI),以及定义的热带气旋(Tropical Cyclone,TC)群发标准,分析了南海—西太平洋地区的低频振荡特征,及其对TC群发活动的影响,研究了TC群发与季风槽的关系。结果表明,孟加拉湾—西太平洋的近赤道地区有两支主要的对流区,分别位于南海—西太平洋地区和孟加拉湾东南部。10~20 d大气准双周振荡(Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation,QBWO)周期是南海—西太平洋地区对流活动的主要周期,大部分年份QBWO占原始序列的方差贡献达20%以上。QBWO的强度具有明显的年际变化,20世纪80年代以前强度变化较大,80年代之后变化较小。根据定义的TC群发标准,发现1990年6—9月西北太平洋地区共有4次TC群发过程,都发生在低频对流活动的湿位相。分析对流活动干位相—湿位相—干位相的演变,发现TC的群发期集中在湿位相,湿位相期间大气低层为低频气旋性环流,较强的正涡度有利于初始涡旋扰动的形成和发展,为TC群发提供了有利的环流背景场。根据定义的季风槽强度指数,发现季风槽强度与TC群发过程有很好的对应关系,由于季风槽的活跃使得对流活动处于湿位相期,同时季风槽区提供了有利的正涡度条件,促使TC群发活动产生。  相似文献   

基于梯度的500 hPa槽线天气系统自动分析方法   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0       下载免费PDF全文

颜长建  胡文东  张春梅  王式功  杨有林  任浩  吕昌伟 《应用气象学报》2016,27(6):741-749

利用位势高度场资料,针对500 hPa高空槽线天气系统,以天气学定义及其图形学特征分析为基础,在保持天气动力学理论约束的同时,提出基于位势高度梯度进行槽线天气系统自动分析的方法。面向各级气象台站的天气预报业务,利用气象信息综合分析系统 (MICAPS) 第4类位势高度格点数据资料,经过梯度计算、垂线确定、方向划分、邻域对比、节点初选、噪声判别、分类滤除、聚类分析、轴向平均等步骤,解决了一系列相关技术问题,完成了西风槽和横槽两类槽线系统自动分析的程序开发。近年宁夏寒潮强降温等过程的分析试验表明,该算法稳定可靠,中高纬度地区槽线分析能力更强,运行效率进一步提高。  相似文献   

海底沙波特征线的最优方向剖面自动识别方法   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

周洁琼  吴自银  赵荻能  尚继宏  李守军  梁裕杨  周勐佳 《海洋学报》2015,37(7):97-107

海底沙波是发育在近海陆架上的一种常见海底地貌类型,海底沙波特征与运动规律的研究具有重要的科学意义与工程应用价值,沙波脊线与谷线是表征海底沙波的最基本特征,也是精确描述沙波运动的基本参量。本文提出了一种基于复合数字水深模型的沙波特征线自动识别方法——最优方向剖面法,基于水深曲面归算得到最优剖面方向,再依据最优剖面方向求导并判定极值,自动提取沙波形态特征点,最终形成沙波脊线和谷线。以台湾浅滩复合型沙波为例进行对比实验研究,结果表明,该方法能基于不同分辨率的数字水深模型自动准确地提取海底沙波脊线与谷线,勿需设置阈值,地形自动化识别程度得到进一步提升,具有重要的实际应用价值。  相似文献