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Prediction of coastal hazards due to climate change is fraught with uncertainty that stems from complexity of coastal systems, estimation of sea level rise, and limitation of available data. In-depth research on coastal modeling is hampered by lack of techniques for handling uncertainty, and the available commercial geographical information systems (GIS) packages have only limited capability of handling uncertain information. Therefore, integrating uncertainty theory with GIS is of practical and theoretical significance. This article presents a GIS-based model that integrates an existing predictive model using a differential approach, random simulation, and fuzzy set theory for predicting geomorphic hazards subject to uncertainty. Coastal hazard is modeled as the combined effects of sea-level induced recession and storm erosion, using grid modeling techniques. The method is described with a case study of Fingal Bay Beach, SE Australia, for which predicted responses to an IPCC standard sea-level rise of 0.86 m and superimposed storm erosion averaged 12 m and 90 m, respectively, with analysis of uncertainty yielding maximum of 52 m and 120 m, respectively. Paradoxically, output uncertainty reduces slightly with simulated increase in random error in the digital elevation model (DEM). This trend implies that the magnitude of modeled uncertainty is not necessarily increased with the uncertainties in the input parameters. Built as a generic tool, the model can be used not only to predict different scenarios of coastal hazard under uncertainties for coastal management, but is also applicable to other fields that involve predictive modeling under uncertainty. 相似文献
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Despite threats emanating from the influence of climate and non-climate forcing on the barrier island coastal region of southwestern Nigeria, the extent of the coastal erosion is poorly understood. We report evidence of coastal erosion and sediment accumulation in the region over a 34-year period (1973–2017), using Landsat imagery at intervals of approximately six years. Landsat image corrections and various water-extraction algorithms were used to systematically delineate coastal erosion and accumulation in the area. The region was subdivided into western and eastern subregions separated by Lagos Harbour. In the west, erosion took place during the periods 1973–1979, 1979–1984, 1990–1999 and 2005–2011, whereas in the east, erosion occurred during 1973–1979, 1990–1999 and 1999–2005. Coastal sediment accumulation occurred in the east during 1979–1984, 1984–1990, 2005–2011 and 2011–2017, whereas gains in the west occurred during 1984–1990, 1999–2005 and 2011–2017. The study revealed substantial net erosion of 1 228.1 ha in the region as a whole, over the full period. Sediment accumulation accompanying the coastal erosion appears to be linked to longshore drift. Erosion between 1973 and 2011 was probably attributable to climate change (storms and tidal conditions), longshore drift, the inflow and outflow of water at Lagos Harbour, coastal morphology and, possibly, human impacts. However, the coastal changes between 2011 and 2017 were more obviously associated with human activities, such as development of the Eko Atlantic construction project. Coastal surveillance, together with the use of environmentally sensitive protective measures, could possibly help to reduce coastal erosion in the region. Careful coastal management practices, including artificial nourishing and the installation of resilient structures (e.g. seawalls), should be undertaken to protect human settlements that are already at risk from sea-level rise. 相似文献
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Oleg Zaytsev Rafael Cervantes-Duarte Orzo Montante Artemio Gallegos-Garcia 《Journal of Oceanography》2003,59(4):489-502
High primary productivity on the Pacific coast of the Baja California Peninsula is usually related to coastal upwelling activity
that injects nutrients into the euphotic zone in response to prevailing longshore winds (from the northwest to north). The
upwelling process has maximum intensity from April to June, with the coastal upwelling index varying from 50 to 300 m3/s per 100 m of coastline. Along the entire coast of the peninsula, the upwelling intensity changes in accordance with local
wind conditions and bottom topography. Spatial variability can also be modulated by the influence of mesoscale meanders of
the California Current. We have identified the seasonal and synoptic variability of upwelling signatures on the Baja California
shelf, using averaged monthly and weekly sea surface temperature (SST) distributions obtained from remote sensing imagery
from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer in the period from 1996 to 2001. Analysis of SST distribution and direct
experimental data on temperature and nutrient concentration shows that the areas with the coldest SST anomalies were closely
related to the bottom slope, shelf width, and coastline orientation relating to wind direction. We also assume that the nutrient
transport into the coastal lagoons may be forced by the coupling of coastal upwelling and tidal pumping of surface waters
into the lagoon system.
This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
17.
Modeling bed-load transport of coarse sediments in the Great Bay Estuary, New Hampshire 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
A. Bilgili M. R. Swift D. R. Lynch J. T. C. Ip 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2003,58(4):937-950
Current, sea level and bed-load transport are investigated in the Lower Piscataqua River section of the Great Bay Estuary, New Hampshire, USA—a well-mixed and geometrically complex system with low freshwater input, having main channel tidal currents ranging between 0.5 and 2 m s−1. Current and sea level forced by the M2M4M6 tides at the estuarine mouth are simulated by a vertically averaged, non-linear, time-stepping finite element model. The hydrodynamic model uses a fixed boundary computational domain and accounts for flooding–drying of tidal flats by making use of a groundwater component. Inertia terms are neglected in comparison with pressure gradient and bottom friction terms, which is consistent with the observed principal dynamic balance for this section of the system. The accuracy of hydrodynamic predictions in the study area is demonstrated by comparison with four tidal elevation stations and two cross-section averaged current measurements. Simulated current is then used to model bed-load transport in the vicinity of a rapidly growing shoal located in the main channel of the lower system. Consisting of coarse sand and gravel, the shoal must be dredged every five to eight years. Two approaches are taken—an Eulerian parametric method in which nodal bed-load flux vectors are averaged over the tidal cycle and a Lagrangian particle tracking approach in which a finite number of sediment particles are released and tracked. Both methods yield pathways and accumulations in agreement with the observed shoal formation and the long-term rate of sediment accumulation in the shoal area. 相似文献
18.
海坛岛海岸风沙特征及其发育 总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7
论述了海坛岛海岸风沙堆积物的沉积特征,对风沙地貌的基本类型进行了划分,分析其发育的基本条件和触发因素,研究其发育历史。 相似文献
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Domenico Voltolina Leslie N. Brown Maurice G. Robinson 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》1985,21(6):817-822
The results of eight sets of repeated observations on the vertical variations of the chlorophyll maximum layer in a shallow lagoon during a red tide show that these were more frequently hydrologically induced, rather than due to active vertical migrations of the red tide-forming organism. These results are discussed and compared to those existing in the literature, with special regard to the role of light and nitrogen in conditioning vertical migrations in red tide-forming dinoflagellates. 相似文献