Recent Precipitation Trends in Hungary in the Context of Larger Scale Climatic Changes   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Domonkos  Peter 《Natural Hazards》2003,29(2):255-271

The time series of monthly precipitation totals from 14 Hungarian observing stations (1901–1998) were analysed to reveal the long term changes in precipitation characteristics occurred in the 20th century. A particular attention was given to the changes in the recent decades and their links with the larger scale climatic and circulation changes over Europe and the Atlantic.The statistical significancesof systematic changes are controlled by linear trend analysis and the Mann–Kendall test. The long term fluctuations are illustrated applying a 15-point Gaussian filter on the time series. The Standardised Precipitation Index is used to evaluate the changes in the drought event frequency. The relationships with larger scale changes are mostly discussed relying on contemporary papers, and the Grosswetterlagen Catalogue is used as well.The annual precipitation total decreased by 15–20% in Hungary during the 20th century. The decline is substantial in both halves of the century, but the precipitation sums in the transition seasons declined in the first 50 years, and the winter precipitation decreased in the latest decades. The precipitation total of the period November–February declined significantly in the last 50 years. In the same time the mean winter value of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) increased, the positions of the main pressure patterns over the Atlantic are shifted northeastward, and lot of other coherent changes detected in the winter climate of the European–Atlantic region. The mean summer precipitation total has hardly changed, but the frequency of summer drought events increased. There are some signs of a shift of the Hungarian summer climate towards a Mediterranean like climate.  相似文献   

Geology and Genesis of the Ta'ergou Skarn - Quartz Vein Tungsten Deposit in the North Qilian Caledonian Orogenic Belt, Northwest China     

Zuoheng Zhang    Jingwen Mao    Jianmin Yang    Zhiliang Wang  Zhaochong Zhang 《Resource Geology》2003,53(2):101-114

Abstract. The Ta'ergou tungsten deposit in Gansu province, northwestern China, is located in the western part of the North Qilian Caledonian orogen, and consists of scheelite skarn bodies and wolframite quartz veins. The tungsten‐bearing skarn developed by the replacement of carbonate layers intercalated in the Precambrian schist and amphibolite whereas wolframite‐quartz ore veins developed along a group of fractures that cut through horizontal skarns. The Ta'ergou tungsten deposit is genetically related to the Caledonian Yeniutan granodiorite intrusion and occurs ca. 500 m wide in the exo‐contact zone 300 ～ 500 m apart from the intrusion. The granodiorite displays a lower grade of differentiation, low content of SiO₂ and high contents of mafic components. There are three types of fluid inclusions in the wolframite‐quartz vein systems, i. e. aqueous, CO₂‐H₂O and CO₂‐rich. The homogenization temperature of aqueous inclusion ranges from 140 to 380d?C and their salinities from 6.4 to 17.4 equivalent wt% NaCl. Laser Raman spectroscopy shows that the inclusions contain a relatively high content of CO₂. The δ³⁴S values of skarn type sulfides range from +8.1 to +12.7 per mil and those of quartz vein sulfides from +9.3 to +14.9 per mil, similar to sulfides of the granodiorite with from +6.0 to +11.7 per mil. The δ¹⁸O values of quartz are between +10.5 and +13.3 per mil and those of wolframite between +3.4 and +5.1 per mil. The δ¹⁸O water values of ore forming fluids range from +0.6 to +6.4 per mil and suggest the mixture of magmatic fluids with meteoric water formed the ore‐forming fluids. It has been proved that Precambrian strata in the west sector of North Qilian region are enriched in tungsten. We propose the strata were remelted to be tungsten‐granitoid during subduction. The polymetallic tungsten was gradually accumulated into the roof pendants of the granite intrusion by fractional crystallization and then was deposited by hydrothermal fluids during metasomatism and infilling along fractures. On the other hand, the granite intrusion also acted as “heating machine” to make hydrothermal fluids leach out the metals from Precambrian strata and these metals joined the ore‐forming hydrothermal system.  相似文献   

A biogenic-silica δO record of climatic change during the last glacial–interglacial transition in southwestern Alaska     

Feng Sheng Hu  Aldo Shemesh 《Quaternary Research》2003,59(3):379-385

Despite growing evidence for environmental oscillations during the last glacial–interglacial transition from high latitude, terrestrial sites of the North Pacific rim, oxygen-isotopic records of these oscillations remain sparse. The lack of data is due partially to the paucity of lakes that contain carbonate sediment suitable for oxygen-isotopic analysis. We report here the first record of oxygen-isotopic composition in diatom silica (δ¹⁸O_Si) from a lake in that region. δ¹⁸O_Si increases gradually from 19.0 to 23.5‰ between 12,340 and 11,000 ¹⁴C yr B.P., reflecting marked climatic warming at the end of the last glaciation. Around 11,000 ¹⁴C yr B.P., δ¹⁸O_Si decreases by 1.7‰, suggesting a temperature decrease of 3.5–8.9 °C at the onset of the Younger Dryas (YD) in southwestern Alaska. Climatic recovery began ca. 10,740 ¹⁴C yr B.P., as inferred from the increase of δ¹⁸O_Si to a maximum of 23.9‰ near the end of the YD. Our data reveal that a YD climatic reversal in southwestern coastal areas of Alaska occurred, but the YD climate did not return to full-glacial conditions.  相似文献   

A statistical approach to evaluating distance metrics and analog assignments for pollen records     

Daniel G. Gavin  W. Wyatt Oswald  Eugene R. Wahl  John W. Williams 《Quaternary Research》2003,60(3):356-367

The modern analog technique typically uses a distance metric to determine the dissimilarity between fossil and modern biological assemblages. Despite this quantitative approach, interpretation of distance metrics is usually qualitative and rules for selection of analogs tend to be ad hoc. We present a statistical tool, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, which provides a framework for identifying analogs from distance metrics. If modern assemblages are placed into groups (e.g., biomes), this method can (1) evaluate the ability of different distance metrics to distinguish among groups, (2) objectively identify thresholds of the distance metric for determining analogs, and (3) compute a likelihood ratio and a Bayesian probability that a modern group is an analog for an unknown (fossil) assemblage. Applied to a set of 1689 modern pollen assemblages from eastern North America classified into eight biomes, ROC analysis confirmed that the squared-chord distance (SCD) outperforms most other distance metrics. The optimal threshold increased when more dissimilar biomes were compared. The probability of an analog vs no-analog result (a likelihood ratio) increased sharply when SCD decreased below the optimal threshold, indicating a nonlinear relationship between SCD and the probability of analog. Probabilities of analog computed for a postglacial pollen record at Tannersville Bog (Pennsylvania, USA) identified transitions between biomes and periods of no analog.  相似文献   

A review of the geodynamic setting of large-scale Late Mesozoic gold mineralization in the North China Craton: an association with lithospheric thinning   总被引：22，自引：0，他引：22  

Jin-Hui Yang  Fu-Yuan Wu  Simon A. Wilde 《Ore Geology Reviews》2003,23(3-4):125-152

Abundant gold deposits are distributed along the margins of the North China Craton (NCC). Occurring throughout the Precambrian basement and located in or proximal to Mesozoic granitoids, these deposits show a consistent spatial–temporal association with Late Jurassic–Early Cretaceous magmatism and are characterized by quartz lode or disseminated styles of mineralization with extensive alteration of wall rock. Their ages are mainly Early Cretaceous (130–110 Ma) and constrain a very short period of metallogenesis. Sr–Nd–Pb isotopic tracers of ores, minerals and associated rocks indicate that gold and associated metals mainly were derived from multi-sources, i.e., the wall rocks (Precambrian basement and Mesozoic granites) and associated mafic rocks.Previous studies, including high surface heat flow, uplift and later basin development, slow seismic wave speeds in the upper mantle, and a change in the character of mantle xenoliths sampled by Paleozoic to Cenozoic magmas, have been used to suggest that ancient, cratonic mantle lithosphere was removed from the base of the NCC some time after the Ordovician, and replaced by younger, less refractory lithospheric mantle. The geochemistry and isotopic compositions of the mafic rocks associated with gold mineralization (130–110 Ma) indicate that they were derived from an ancient enriched lithospheric mantle source; whereas, the mafic dikes and volcanic rocks younger than 110 Ma were derived from a relatively depleted mantle source, i.e., asthenospheric mantle. According to their age and sources, relation to magmatism and geodynamic framework, the gold deposits were formed during lithospheric thinning. The removal of lithospheric mantle and the upwelling of new asthenospheric mantle induced partial melting and dehydration of the lithospheric mantle and lower crust due to an increase of temperature. The fluids derived from the lower crust were mixed with magmatic and meteoric waters, and resulted in the deposition of gold and associated metals.  相似文献   

华北夏季旱涝的环流特征分析   总被引：9，自引：5，他引：9       下载免费PDF全文

谭桂容  孙照渤  陈海山 《气象科学》2003,23(2):135-143

本文运用月降水量、500hPa、100hPa月平均高度场和海平面气压场，在对50a华北夏季旱涝等级重新评定的基础上，分析了与华北夏季旱涝年对应的环流异常特征。结果表明华北旱涝年，对应整个北半球上各层都存在显著的环流异常变化。旱年500hPa环流异常使得极涡偏心，相应乌拉尔山和北美的气候槽偏强；中纬度位于华北的平均槽东移到朝鲜日本一带，而西部脊东移控制华北；低纬西太平洋副高偏东，印度低压槽偏弱。涝年则相反。在海平面气压场上，除了在与高层对应的显著异常区有相应变化外，在我国东部大陆大部及赤道中东太平洋上也有一显著的异常区，证实夏季风和KNSO与华北旱涝存在密切的联系。在100hPa高度场旱涝年环流差异主要表现为南亚高压南北界的位置变化。  相似文献   

华北汛期降水异常与100hPa高度场异常的关系   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

孙燕  王谦谦  钱永甫  张友姝 《气象科学》2003,23(4):418-425

利用华北17站1951～2000年的逐月降水资料,与前期的100 hPa高度场(1958～1997年)求相关,找到了100 hPa高度场影响华北地区汛期降水的关键影响区为25°～35°N,85°～105°E,对应的关键影响时段为前一年3～5月.然后用SVD方法证实了前一年春季正是与华北汛期降水相关最显著的时段;而所选关键区正是处于一种范围更大的100 hPa高度场空间分布型的关键部位,而华北地区是关键区影响中国东部降水的最显著的区域之一.  相似文献   

华北地区农业干旱预测模型及其应用研究   总被引：23，自引：8，他引：23       下载免费PDF全文

刘建栋王馥棠  于强王建林  毕建杰樊广华 《应用气象学报》2003,14(5):593-604

对华北地区冬小麦进行了水分胁迫实验，确定了冬小麦光合作用速率对水分胁迫的响应曲线，提出了农业干旱指数和农业干旱预警指数两个基本概念，在此基础上建立了具有明确生物学机理的华北农业干旱预测数值模式。对北京、石家庄、郑州和济南1998年至2000年432旬的农业干旱模拟结果表明:农业干旱预警定性准确率为90.7%，定量准确率在87.5%左右；此外，模拟表明模式也可以对区域农业干旱进行准确有效的预测。利用1961~2000年气象资料对北京等地区历年农业干旱进行数值分析，结果表明:不同于大气干旱，在自然气象条件下，北京等地区作物生长期内几乎每年都存在农业干旱现象，特别是冬小麦灌浆至成熟期每年均存在一次较为严重的农业干旱胁迫过程，但农业干旱胁迫程度年际间存在一定波动，功率谱分析表明其具有3~6年的周期变化规律。对平均气候状况下华北地区农业干旱进行了时空动态分析，结果发现在自然条件下，华北大部分地区冬小麦4月下旬至5月下旬，即大约在冬小麦开花、灌浆至成熟期，农业干旱胁迫指数存在一种自然的逐渐加强的动态过程，这与华北地区的农业生产实践是基本一致的。  相似文献   

奇异值分解和奇异交叉谱分析方法在华北夏季降水诊断中的应用   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

尤凤春  丁裕国周煜 史印山 《应用气象学报》2003,14(2):176-187

利用1965~2000年华北5省市及相邻省73个地面观测站逐月平均降水场及北半球500 hPa高度场、北太平洋海温场资料, 采用奇异值分解 (SVD)、奇异交叉谱 (SCSA) 分析方法, 将华北夏季降水场分别与1月北半球500 hPa高度场、冬季北太平洋海温场进行了诊断分析, 得出奇异向量分布型及相互作用的耦合周期信号。在对前4对奇异向量的分析中发现, 华北夏季降水全区域为正距平时与1月北半球500 hPa高度场PNA遥相关型关系非常密切。ENSO对华北夏季降水的影响确实存在, 但华北夏季降水全区域为正距平时与冬季北太平洋ENSO关系并不明显。同时还找出了华北降水与北半球500 hPa高度、北太平洋海温场相互作用的关键区。在华北各型降水与高度场、海温场关键区相互作用的耦合周期中, 前者以准2~7年振荡为主; 后者则周期较长, 最短周期仍为准2年振荡, 最长周期为准10~11年振荡。以上结论为进一步研究华北夏季降水短期气候预测方法, 提供了参考依据。  相似文献   

震级加权四指标Blade算法及在地震带识别中的应用     

秦承志  裴韬  周成虎  李全林  韩志军  汪闽  蔡强 《地震》2003,23(2):59-69

Blade算法的产生是根据地震点的分布寻找地震断层，其优势在于能从较稀疏的点分布中找出线型条带模式，但不足的是完全不考虑地震的震级屑性。针对Blade算法的几个不足之处逐步改进，提出了震级加权四指标Blade算法。算法主要的改进体现在：①引入以震级为变量的权重函数，体现了高震级地震的控制作用，通过模拟与实例比较了三种权重函数的效果；②改进原方法中所挑出的Blade中心必须有地震点，引入四指标评价体系代替原方法的二指标评价体系，同时还根据指标值将挑选出的线型条带修正到更淮确的位置。将原算法与改进算法应用于华北地区4级以上的地震数据集以按寻地震带，结果表明，震级加权四指标Blade算法较Blade算法有显改进，取得了较好的应用效果。  相似文献