南海含天然气水合物地层地震反射特征及可能分布研究   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

徐华宁  李丽青  舒虎  文鹏飞  张宝金 《应用地球物理》2006,3(1):42-47

天然气水合物是当前能源与环境领域的研究热点之一,南中国海是天然气水合物赋存的有利区域。天然气水合物的存在改变了沉积地层的声学特征,这一性质使多道地震勘探成为发现海洋天然气水合物的主要手段。本文首先根据地震成像结果定性分析南海可能含天然气水合物沉积地层的地震反射特征,初步确定天然气水合物存在的可能性并指出地震成像关键技术。在无井条件下,构建虚拟井进行波阻抗反演得到定量的地层速度参数进一步证实这一可能性,最后将反演获得的速度场与ODP184 航次在此区域获得的地球物理、地球化学信息综合分析,可以确定此区域天然气水合物的存在及其空间展布。  相似文献   

Seismicity of the northernmost part of the Red Sea (1995–1999)     

I. M. Korrat  H. M. Hussein  I. Marzouk  E. M. Ibrahim  R. Abdel-Fattah  N. Hurukawa 《Acta Geophysica》2006,54(1):33-49

Seismicity in the northernmost part of the Red Sea has been studied using data from Hurghada Seismological Network in addition to readings from the existing neighbouring networks. Relocated events in addition to data from national centers are used to obtain a complete and true picture for the seismicity of the area. The spatial distribution of earthquakes defines three earthquake zones in the Gulf of Aqaba and three zones at the entrance of the Gulf of Suez and southern tip of Sinai Peninsula. The thermal activity and the triple junction nature control the activity in this area. The activity defines also an active trend extending from the southern tip of Sinai Peninsula to the median zone of the Red Sea. The seismicity of this trend is probably related to the active spreading zone associated with the opening of the Red Sea. The b-values are derived for the entrance areas of the two gulfs and for Gulf of Aqaba. Values of b are 1.35 for the triple junction region, 1.13 for the activity before the 22 November 1995 Gulf of Aqaba mainshock and 1.25 for the aftershocks of this event.  相似文献   

Climate change and North Sea storm surge extremes: an ensemble study of storm surge extremes expected in a changed climate projected by four different regional climate models   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Katja Woth  Ralf Weisse  Hans von Storch 《Ocean Dynamics》2006,56(1):3-15

The coastal zones are facing the prospect of changing storm surge statistics due to anthropogenic climate change. In the present study, we examine these prospects for the North Sea based on numerical modelling. The main tool is the barotropic tide-surge model TRIMGEO (Tidal Residual and Intertidal Mudflat Model) to derive storm surge climate and extremes from atmospheric conditions. The analysis is carried out by using an ensemble of four 30-year atmospheric regional simulations under present-day and possible future-enhanced greenhouse gas conditions. The atmospheric regional simulations were prepared within the EU project PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects). The research strategy of PRUDENCE is to compare simulations of different regional models driven by the same global control and climate change simulations. These global conditions, representative for 1961–1990 and 2071–2100 were prepared by the Hadley Center based on the IPCC A2 SRES scenario. The results suggest that under future climatic conditions, storm surge extremes may increase along the North Sea coast towards the end of this century. Based on a comparison between the results of the different ensemble members as well as on the variability estimated from a high-resolution storm surge reconstruction of the recent decades it is found that this increase is significantly different from zero at the 95% confidence level for most of the North Sea coast. An exception represents the East coast of the UK which is not affected by this increase of storm surge extremes.  相似文献   

Brest sea level record: a time series construction back to the early eighteenth century     

Guy Wöppelmann  Nicolas Pouvreau  Bernard Simon 《Ocean Dynamics》2006,56(5-6):487-497

The completeness and the accuracy of the Brest sea level time series dating from 1807 make it suitable for long-term sea level trend studies. New data sets were recently discovered in the form of handwritten tabulations, including several decades of the eighteenth century. Sea level observations have been made in Brest since 1679. This paper presents the historical data sets which have been assembled so far. These data sets span approximately 300 years and together constitute the longest, near-continuous set of sea level information in France. However, an important question arises: Can we relate the past and the present-day records? We partially provide an answer to this question by analysing the documents of several historical libraries with the tidal data using a ‘data archaeology’ approach advocated by Woodworth (Geophys Res Lett 26:1589–1592, 1999b). A second question arises concerning the accuracy of such records. Careful editing was undertaken by examining the residuals between tidal predictions and observations. It proved useful to remove the worst effects of timing errors, in particular the sundial correction to be applied prior to August 1, 1714. A refined correction based on sundial literature [Savoie, La gnomique, Editions Les Belles Lettres, Paris, 2001] is proposed, which eliminates the systematic offsets seen in the discrepancies in timing of the sea level measurements. The tidal analysis has also shown that shallow-water tidal harmonics at Brest causes a systematic difference of 0.023 m between mean sea level (MSL) and mean tide level (MTL). Thus, MTL should not be mixed with the time series of MSL because of this systematic offset. The study of the trends in MTL and MSL however indicates that MTL can be used as a proxy for MSL. Three linear trend periods are distinguished in the Brest MTL time series over the period 1807–2004. Our results support the recent findings of Holgate and Woodworth (Geophys Res Lett) of an enhanced coastal sea level rise during the last decade compared to the global estimations of about 1.8 mm/year over longer periods (Douglas, J Geophys Res 96:6981–6992, 1991). The onset of the relatively large global sea level trends observed in the twentieth century is an important question in the science of climate change. Our findings point out to an ‘inflexion point’ at around 1890, which is remarkably close to that in 1880 found in the Liverpool record by Woodworth (Geophys Res Lett 26:1589–1592, 1999b).  相似文献   

Perspectives on present-day sea level change: a tribute to Christian le Provost     

Alix Lombard  Anny Cazenave  Pierre Yves Le Traon  Stephanie Guinehut  Cécile Cabanes 《Ocean Dynamics》2006,56(5-6):445-451

In this paper, we first discuss the controversial result of the work by Cabanes et al. (Science 294:840–842, 2001), who suggested that the rate of past century sea level rise may have been overestimated, considering the limited and heterogeneous location of historical tide gauges and the high regional variability of thermal expansion which was supposed to dominate the observed sea level. If correct, this conclusion would have solved the problem raised by the IPCC third assessment report [Church et al, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 881, 2001], namely, the factor two difference between the 20th century observed sea level rise and the computed climatic contributions. However, recent investigations based on new ocean temperature data sets indicate that thermal expansion only explains part (about 0.4 mm/year) of the 1.8 mm/year observed sea level rise of the past few decades. In fact, the Cabanes et al.’s conclusion was incorrect due to a contamination of abnormally high ocean temperature data in the Gulf Stream area that led to an overestimate of thermal expansion in this region. In this paper, we also estimate thermal expansion over the last decade (1993–2003), using a new ocean temperature and salinity database. We compare our result with three other estimates, two being based on global gridded data sets, and one based on an approach similar to that developed here. It is found that the mean rate of thermosteric sea level rise over the past decade is 1.5±0.3 mm/year, i.e. 50% of the observed 3 mm/year by satellite altimetry. For both time spans, past few decades and last decade, a contribution of 1.4 mm/year is not explained by thermal expansion, thus needs to be of water mass origin. Direct estimates of land ice melt for the recent years account for about 1 mm/year sea level rise. Thus, at least for the last decade, we have moved closer to explaining the observed rate of sea level rise than the IPCC third assessment report.  相似文献   

长岭山北麓断裂上新发现的地震地表破裂带   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

柳煜  杨斌  李明永  王爱国  刘洪春 《地震工程学报》2006,28(4):319-326

通过野外地震地质调查,在甘肃省古浪县、景泰县交界处的长岭山地区新发现了丰富的线状分布的地震地表破裂现象,表现为基岩崩塌、黄土滑坡、地震裂缝、地震土林、地震沟槽、陷落坑以及断层陡坎等,局部可见残留的破裂滑动自由面。其分布严格受长岭山北麓活动断裂控制。通过地震地表破裂带本身的特征分析、年代学分析、地表破裂带长度与震级的拟合关系以及结合区域活动断裂资料研究,认为该地震地表破裂带可能为1927年古浪8.0级地震的产物。  相似文献   

Threat level green: Conceding ecology for security in eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Mark Lawrence Schrad   《Global Environmental Change》2006,16(4):400-422

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the predicted scenarios of Central Asian water wars and catastrophic nuclear accidents have failed to materialize. However, the Aral Sea continues to shrink apace, and dangerous Soviet-built nuclear reactors have since proliferated in the former eastern bloc. These seemingly paradoxical outcomes can in part be attributed to the framing of these environmental issues as security matters by leading international regulatory, aid and lending institutions. Integrating these environmental concerns with the realist worldview of security studies systematically emphasized security dimensions at the expense of ecological concerns even amongst organizations distant from traditional defense affairs. This article proposes that international security strategy in this period is one of environmental appeasement defined as the systematic granting of ecologically unfriendly concessions in order to reduce short-term security risks. The article presents evidence that this appeasement strategy generated seemingly impressive results in terms of ameliorating short-term security risks, while actually exacerbating the underlying ecological situation. The article argues that while the foundational environmental risks remain unaddressed, the associated security threats have likewise not been ultimately resolved.  相似文献   

查表法设计华北地区最大震级时间序列模糊预测系统     

武安绪  林向东  张洪魁  徐平  鲁亚军  穆会泳  李菊珍  乔振瑛  丁晗 《东北地震研究》2006,22(1):11-17

本文介绍了查表法设计模糊系统(FSLE)的方法与原理,然后基于该方法建立了华北地区及主要地震带最大震级时间序列的预测模型,并进行了预测内符检验。分析认为,该方法的建模与预测精度较高,模型外推泛化能力较强,原理简单直观,计算结果稳健。因此,FSLE方法可作为地震趋势建模与预测分析工作中的一种有效工具。  相似文献   

黄河源区新构造运动对生态环境恶化的影响   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

张森琦李永国  尚小刚辛元红王占昌  石维栋庄永成 周金元 《地质通报》2006,25(1):213-220

基于黄河源区1:25万生态环境地质调查新获得的大量实际资料,通过分析和研究发现,黄河源区早更新世-中更新世处于走滑伸展的大陆动力学背景,在整体隆升中,形成断块山与拉分盆地,湖泊广布;晚更新世,大陆动力学机制过渡为挤压收缩,在整体抬升中,断块山显著崛起,湖盆萎缩、变形;全新世,大陆动力学环境反转为走滑挤压,持续隆升,黄河扩展源头到达本区,扎陵湖、鄂陵湖外泄,闭流盆地水环境转向开放.近代,特别是20世纪70年代以来,新构造活化与寒冻风化岩屑坡扩大、沙质荒漠化蔓延、湖泊和沼泽湿地萎缩、区域地下水位下降、源区黄河频繁断流、生态环境日益恶化响应关系密切.因此,新构造运动在黄河源区生态环境恶化中起主导作用,而其他因素则起到促进与加速的作用.  相似文献   

天然气水合物资源量估算方法及应用   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

梁金强吴能友  杨木壮王明君　沙志彬 《地质通报》2006,25(9):1205-1210

近年大量的勘探与研究成果表明,中国南海海域具有良好的水合物资源前景.根据所掌握的勘探资料,尝试利用"概率统计法"对南海海域水合物资源前景进行了初步预测,在50%概率的条件下,南海海域的水合物资源量约为649.68×1011m3,与众多学者对全球天然气水合物资源量的估算相似.由于目前勘探程度较低和很多评价参数不能准确给定,因此对南海海域天然气水合物资源量的估算是初步的.该项研究旨在探索天然气水合物资源量的评估方法,随着勘探、研究程度的深入和评价资料的增多,水合物资源量的评价精度将会得到进一步的提高.  相似文献