A newly-discovered GPD-GEV relationship together with comparing their models of extreme precipitation in summer   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

丁裕国  程炳岩  江志红 《大气科学进展》2008,25(3):507-516

It has been theoretically proven that at a high threshold an approximate expression for a quantile of GEV （Generalized Extreme Values） distribution can be derived from GPD （Generalized Pareto Distribution）. Afterwards, a quantile of extreme rainfall events in a certain return period is found using L-moment estimation and extreme rainfall events simulated by GPD and GEV, with all aspects of their results compared. Numerical simulations show that POT （Peaks Over Threshold）-based GPD is advantageous in its simple operation and subjected to practically no effect of the sample size of the primitive series, producing steady high-precision fittings in the whole field of values （including the high-end heavy tailed）. In comparison, BM （Block Maximum）-based GEV is limited, to some extent, to the probability and quantile simulation, thereby showing that GPD is an extension of GEV, the former being of greater utility and higher significance to climate research compared to the latter.  相似文献   

Multi-objective optimisation of a floating LNG terminal     

Evangelos K. Boulougouris  Apostolos D. Papanikolaou   《Ocean Engineering》2008,35(8-9):787-811

The paper presents a comprehensive multi-objective hydrodynamic optimisation procedure and its application to the early design of a floating liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal for improved seakeeping and wave attenuation characteristics on its lee side. Genetic algorithms are used to find the Pareto optima designs followed by multi-objective decision making procedures to select the optimum design among them. The paper addresses the definition of the relevant optimisation problem and the set-up and interface of relevant software tools, presents results of systematic studies with respect to the minimisation of the motion responses and wave elevation on the leeward side of free-floating terminals and concludes with analysis and critical review of the obtained results and their impact on terminal design.  相似文献   

Historical and pooled flood frequency analysis for the River Tay at Perth, Scotland   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

N Macdonald  A Werritty  A R Black  L J McEwen† 《Area》2006,38(1):34-46

Improved estimates of UK flood risk during a period of increased climatic variability place challenges on existing methods that rely on short instrumental records. This paper examines the value of using historical data (both documentary and epigraphic) to augment existing gauged records for the River Tay at Perth as part of a multi-method approach to assessing flood risk. Single station and pooled methods are compared with flood risk estimates based on an augmented historical series (1815–2000) using the Generalized Logistic and Generalized Pareto distributions. The value of using an even longer, but less reliable, extended historical series (1210–2000) is also examined. It is recommended that modelling flood risk for return periods >100 years should incorporate historical data, where available, and that a multi-method approach using a high threshold Generalized Pareto distribution can also add confidence in flood risk estimates for return periods <100 years based on standard methods.  相似文献   

Linear combinations of order statistics to estimate the position and scale parameters of the Generalized Pareto distribution     

G. Sazlvadori 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2002,16(1):1-17

 Ad hoc techniques for estimating the position and the scale parameters of the Generalized Pareto distribution are introduced. The estimators proposed are simple linear combinations of the order statistics: they provide valuable estimates of the parameters of interest, both when the shape parameter is known and when it is unknown (this latter case being of great relevance in practical applications), and show a good performance as well when the sample size is small. The procedures are tested on simulated data, and comparisons with other techniques are shown.  相似文献   

基于INPGA的地下水污染治理多目标优化管理模型:Ⅱ——实例应用          下载免费PDF全文

吴剑锋  彭伟  钱家忠  吴吉春  郑春苗 《地质论评》2011,57(3):437-443

简单算例研究表明改进的小生境Pareto遗传算法(INPGA)用于求解地下水系统的多目标优化管理模型时,求解过程简单,计算速度快,而且得到的Pareto解集跨度更为合理.本文以美国麻省军事保护区(Massachusetts Military Reservation,MMR)为实例,通过建立研究区复杂地下水污染治理的多目...  相似文献   

环渤海地区旅游合作分类发展研究     

李承伟  李悦铮 《云南地理环境研究》2011,23(4):37-41

环渤海地区旅游业发展存在差距性,使得各城市在合作中处于不同的层级。论文基于帕累托改进分析,将旅游合作划分为合作自由区、合作滞后区、合作困难区3个层次,之后通过系统聚类确定环渤海地区各城市所处的层次,并从合作策略、运行保障机制、空间合作机制上提出各城市在旅游合作中的路径选择。  相似文献   

基于广义帕累托分布的地震震级分布尾部特征分析   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

钱小仕  王福昌  盛书中 《地震学报》2013,35(3)

极值理论在地震危险性分析中有着重要应用,发震震级超过某一阈值的超出量分布可以近似为广义帕累托分布.基于广义帕累托分布给出了若干地震活动性参数的估计公式,包括强震震级分布、地震复发周期和重现水平、期望重现震级、地震危险性概率和潜在震级上限等;以云南地区震级资料为基础数据,讨论了阈值选取、模型拟合诊断和参数估计;在此基础上计算了该地区的地震活动性参数.结果表明,广义帕累托分布较好地刻画了强震震级分布,通过超阈值(POT)模型计算的复发周期与实际复发间隔统计基本一致,高分位数估计在一定阈值范围内表现稳定,为工程抗震中潜在震级上限的确定提供了一种途径.  相似文献   

Optimization of site exploration program for improved prediction of tunneling-induced ground settlement in clays     

《Computers and Geotechnics》2014

Excessive settlement caused by tunneling during construction often damages adjacent infrastructures and utilities. Such excessive settlement can also present a challenge in the maintenance of subways during their operation. Thus, it is important to be able to accurately predict tunneling-induced settlement. The uncertainties in geotechnical parameters, however, can lead to either an overestimation or an underestimation of the tunneling-induced settlement. Such uncertainties can arise from many sources such as spatial variability, measurement error, and model error; in this paper, the focus is on the geotechnical parameters characterization from site exploration. The goal here is to determine an optimal level of site exploration effort so that effective predictions of the tunneling-induced settlement in clays can be achieved. To this end, a Monte Carlo simulation-based numerical model of site exploration is first established to generate artificial test data. Then, a series of parametric analyses are performed to investigate the relationship between the level of site exploration effort and the accuracy of the tunneling-induced ground settlement prediction. Through the assumed different levels of site exploration effort, statistics of soil parameters are estimated using the maximum likelihood method and the tunneling-induced ground settlement is then analyzed using the probabilistic method, and finally the effect of site exploration effort is assessed. The knowledge generated from this series of analyses is then used to develop the proposed framework for selecting an optimal site exploration program for improved prediction of the tunneling-induced ground settlement in clays. Examples are presented to illustrate the proposed framework and demonstrate its effectiveness and significance.  相似文献   

洪水超定量模型的广义Pareto分布及其应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

郝金梅  王冰  李占强  王志芳 《水文》2014,34(1):78-82

为了扩大洪水信息,提高洪水模拟精度,研究超定量洪水频率分析模型。介绍了洪水超定量模型的基本理论,假设超定量洪水年发生次数服从Poisson分布,超定量洪水系列服从广义Pareto(GP)分布,给出年最大超定量洪水分布和超定量洪水重现期的计算方法,提出通过模型拟合优度检验来综合确定超定量系列阈值的方法。将超定量模型应用在海河流域小觉站洪峰频率分析中,结果表明:通过模型拟合优度检验确定超定量系列阈值的方法有效且可靠,洪水超定量系列年平均发生次数服从Poisson分布,GP分布洪峰设计值略大于P-Ⅲ分布洪峰设计值,应用在水利工程设计及风险分析中是偏安全的。  相似文献   

四川盆地短历时强降水极值分布的研究   总被引：8，自引：1，他引：7  

司波  余锦华  丁裕国 《气象科学》2012,32(4):403-410

运用广义帕雷托分布(GPD)和广义极值分布(GEV),借助于L-矩的参数估计方法,对四川盆地12站的小时极端降水量进行拟合,并对两种模型的拟合效果进行比较。运用Hill图,结合统计量D*来确定GPD的最佳门限值是合适的,选出的样本是独立的。各站的小时极端降水概率分布均符合GPD和GEV,但GPD模型的拟合精度要优于GEV模型。利用两种模型推算出各站给定重现期的最大小时降水量,其中泸州50 a一遇和100 a一遇的降水极值分位数都超过了100 mm,除了遂宁站外,两种模型估计出的极值分位数的相对误差基本都在10%以下。通过分析,GPD推算的结果更加可靠。  相似文献