Multivariate statistical modelling of future marine storms     

《Applied Ocean Research》2017

  相似文献   

极值统计理论的进展及其在气候变化研究中的应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

丁裕国  李佳耘  江志红  余锦华 《气候变化研究进展》2011,7(4):248-252

着重论述极值统计分布在极端天气气候事件和重大工程设计中的重要意义,综述该领域国内外研究进展。例如,基于超门限峰值法（POT）的广义帕累托分布（GPD)和基于单元极大值法（BM）的广义极值分布（GEV）及其参数间的理论关系;采用极值分布模型与多状态一阶Markov链相结合构建降尺度模型模拟局地极端降水事件,推算一定重现期的极端降水量的分位数;探讨极值分布模型分位数估计误差问题,多维极值分布理论及其应用等问题。  相似文献   

A statistical method linking geological and historical eruption time series for volcanic hazard estimations: Applications to active polygenetic volcanoes     

Ana Teresa Mendoza-Rosas  Servando De la Cruz-Reyna 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2008

The probabilistic analysis of volcanic eruption time series is an essential step for the assessment of volcanic hazard and risk. Such series describe complex processes involving different types of eruptions over different time scales. A statistical method linking geological and historical eruption time series is proposed for calculating the probabilities of future eruptions. The first step of the analysis is to characterize the eruptions by their magnitudes. As is the case in most natural phenomena, lower magnitude events are more frequent, and the behavior of the eruption series may be biased by such events. On the other hand, eruptive series are commonly studied using conventional statistics and treated as homogeneous Poisson processes. However, time-dependent series, or sequences including rare or extreme events, represented by very few data of large eruptions require special methods of analysis, such as the extreme-value theory applied to non-homogeneous Poisson processes. Here we propose a general methodology for analyzing such processes attempting to obtain better estimates of the volcanic hazard. This is done in three steps: Firstly, the historical eruptive series is complemented with the available geological eruption data. The linking of these series is done assuming an inverse relationship between the eruption magnitudes and the occurrence rate of each magnitude class. Secondly, we perform a Weibull analysis of the distribution of repose time between successive eruptions. Thirdly, the linked eruption series are analyzed as a non-homogeneous Poisson process with a generalized Pareto distribution as intensity function. As an application, the method is tested on the eruption series of five active polygenetic Mexican volcanoes: Colima, Citlaltépetl, Nevado de Toluca, Popocatépetl and El Chichón, to obtain hazard estimates.  相似文献   

多目标优化NSGA系列算法与地理决策：原理、现状与展望     

高培超  王昊煜  宋长青  程昌秀  沈石 《地球信息科学学报》2023,25(1):25-39

地理学正在经历“剧变”时代,愈发强调决策支持。地理决策过程中往往涉及众多因素,需要通盘考量不同因素、权衡利弊,并提出最优方案,是典型的多目标优化过程。数学领域的多目标优化算法因而在地理决策中具有广阔的应用潜力和重要意义,其最新进展是地理学中新方法、新工具的重要来源。本文综述了多目标优化领域最前沿、最流行的算法代表“非支配排序遗传系列算法”（Nondominated Sorting Genetic Algorithms,NSGAs）,对其三代不同算法的原理、适用性进行对比,并综述了这些算法在地理决策领域的应用现状、改进方法、问题与局限。研究发现：在三代算法中,NSGA-Ⅱ因其在计算复杂性和使用场景方面的优势在地理决策中最为流行;NSGA-Ⅲ对建模要求较高,尚未得到广泛关注。在地理决策的各领域中,水资源管理领域是NSGA算法应用最多、最成熟的领域,该领域的问题建模和在NSGA算法中融入局部搜索的经验值得其它领域借鉴和推广;土地利用规划领域提出了较多的NSGA改进算法,为更好地融合NSGA算法进行地理决策树立了典范。未来研究中,可通过凝练行业共性问题、构建通用优化模型降低NSGA算法的应用门...  相似文献   

Multi‐objective particle swarm optimization for generating optimal trade‐offs in reservoir operation     

M. Janga Reddy  D. Nagesh Kumar 《水文研究》2007,21(21):2897-2909

A multi‐objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) approach is presented for generating Pareto‐optimal solutions for reservoir operation problems. This method is developed by integrating Pareto dominance principles into particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. In addition, a variable size external repository and an efficient elitist‐mutation (EM) operator are introduced. The proposed EM‐MOPSO approach is first tested for few test problems taken from the literature and evaluated with standard performance measures. It is found that the EM‐MOPSO yields efficient solutions in terms of giving a wide spread of solutions with good convergence to true Pareto optimal solutions. On achieving good results for test cases, the approach was applied to a case study of multi‐objective reservoir operation problem, namely the Bhadra reservoir system in India. The solutions of EM‐MOPSOs yield a trade‐off curve/surface, identifying a set of alternatives that define optimal solutions to the problem. Finally, to facilitate easy implementation for the reservoir operator, a simple but effective decision‐making approach was presented. The results obtained show that the proposed approach is a viable alternative to solve multi‐objective water resources and hydrology problems. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Seeking the Pareto front for multiobjective spatial optimization problems     

B. Huang  P. Fery  L. Xue  Y. Wang 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(5):507-526

Spatial optimization problems, such as route selection, usually involve multiple, conflicting objectives relevant to locations. An ideal approach to solving such multiobjective optimization problems (MOPs) is to find an evenly distributed set of Pareto‐optimal alternatives, which is capable of representing the possible trade‐off among different objectives. However, these MOPs are commonly solved by combining the multiple objectives into a parametric scalar objective, in the form of a weighted sum function. It has been found that this method fails to produce a set of well spread solutions by disregarding the concave part of the Pareto front. In order to overcome this ill‐behaved nature, a novel adaptive approach has been proposed in this paper. This approach seeks to provide an unbiased approximation of the Pareto front by tuning the search direction in the objective space according to the largest unexplored region until a set of well‐distributed solutions is reached. To validate the proposed methodology, a case study on multiobjective routing has been performed using the Singapore road network with the support of GIS. The experimental results confirm the effectiveness of the approach.  相似文献   

Street hierarchies: a minority of streets account for a majority of traffic flow     

Bin Jiang 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(8):1033-1048

Urban streets are hierarchically organized in the sense that a majority of streets are trivial, while a minority of streets is vital. This hierarchy can be simply, but elegantly, characterized by the 80/20 principle, i.e. 80% of streets are less connected (below the average), while 20% of streets are well connected (above the average); out of the 20%, there is 1% of streets that are extremely well connected. This paper, using a European city as an example, examined, at a much more detailed level, such street hierarchies from the perspective of geometric and topological properties. Based on an empirical study, we further proved a previous conjecture that a minority of streets accounts for a majority of traffic flow; more accurately, the 20% of top streets accommodate 80% of traffic flow (20/80), and the 1% of top streets account for more than 20% of traffic flow (1/20). Our study provides new evidence as to how a city is (self‐)organized, contributing to the understanding of cities and their evolution using increasingly available mobility geographic information.  相似文献   

Interpretation and nonuniqueness of CTRW transition distributions: Insights from an alternative solute transport formulation     

《Advances in water resources》2014

The continuous time random walk (CTRW) has both an elegant mathematical theory and a successful record at modeling solute transport in the subsurface. However, there are some interpretation ambiguities relating to the relationship between the discrete CTRW transition distributions and the underlying continuous movement of solute that have not been addressed in existing literature. These include the exact definition of “transition”, and the extent to which transition probability distributions are unique/quantifiable from data. Here, we present some theoretical results which address these uncertainties in systems with an advective bias. Simultaneously, we present an alternative, reduced parameter CTRW formulation for general advective transport in heterogeneous porous media, which models early- and late-time transport by use of random transition times between sparse, imaginary planes normal to flow. We show that even in the context of this reduced-parameter formulation there is nonuniqueness in the definitions of both transition lengths and waiting time distributions, and that neither may be uniquely determined from experimental data. For practical use of this formulation, we suggest Pareto transition time distributions, leading to a two-degree-of-freedom modeling approach. We then demonstrate the power of this approach in fitting two sets of existing experimental data. While the primary focus is the presentation of new results, the discussion is designed to be pedagogical and to provide a good entry point into practical modeling of solute transport with the CTRW.  相似文献   

AN ANALYSIS OF THE WINTER EXTREME PRECIPITATION EVENTS ON THE BACKGROUND OF CLIMATE WARMING IN SOUTHERN CHINA   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

智协飞  张玲  潘嘉璐 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2010,16(4):325-332

Based on daily precipitation and monthly temperature data in southern China, the winter extreme precipitation changes in southern China have been investigated by using the Mann-Kendall test and the return values of Generalized Pareto Distribution. The results show that a winter climate catastrophe in southern China occurred around 1991, and the intensity of winter extreme precipitation was strengthened after climate warming. The anomalous circulation characteristics before and after the climate warming was further analyzed by using the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data. It is found that the tropical winter monsoon over East Asia is negatively correlated with the precipitation in southeastern China. After climate warming the meridionality of the circulations in middle and high latitudes increases, which is favorable for the southward movement of the cold air from the north. In addition, the increase of the temperature over southern China may lead to the decrease of the differential heating between the continent and the ocean. Consequently, the tropical winter monsoon over East Asia is weakened, which is favorable for the transport of the warm and humid air to southeastern China and the formation of the anomalous convergence of the moisture flux, resulting in large precipitation over southeastern China. As a result, the interaction between the anomalous circulations in the middle and high latitudes and lower latitudes after the climate warming plays a major role in the increase of the winter precipitation intensity over southeastern China.  相似文献   

Experimental Simulations of Extreme Precipitation Based on the Multi-Status Markov Chain Model          下载免费PDF全文

DING Yuguo  ZHANG Jinling  JIANG Zhihong 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2010,24(4):484-491

A multi-status Markov chain model is proposed to produce daily rainfall, and based on which extreme rainfall is simulated with the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). The simulated daily rainfall shows high precision at most stations, especially in pluvial regions of East China. The analysis reveals that the multistatus Markov chain model excels the bi-status Markov chain model in simulating climatic features of extreme rainfall. Results from the selected six stations demonstrate excellent simulations in the following aspects:standard deviation of monthly precipitation,daily maximum precipitation,the monthly mean rainfall days,standard deviation of daily precipitation and mean daily precipitation, which are proved to be consistent with the observations. A comparative study involving 78 stations in East China also reveals good consistency in monthly mean rainfall days and mean daily maximum rainfall, except mean daily rainfall. Simulation results at the above 6 stations have shown satisfactory fitting capability of the extreme precipitation GPD method. Good analogy is also found between simulation and observation in threshold and return values. As the errors of the threshold decrease, so do the di?erences between the return and real values. All the above demonstrates the applicability of the Markov chain model to extreme rainfall simulations.  相似文献