两种新的水文频率分布模型:Pareto分布和Logistic分布   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

金光炎 《水文》2005,25(1):29-33,45

介绍了两种新的水文频率分布模型——Pareto分布和Logistic分布，分析了它们的统计特性和应用概况，制作了两种分布的离均系数表，能用一般的方法估计参数和设计值，可作为进一步研究频率曲线线型时的参考。  相似文献   

Maximum product of spacings estimators for the generalized pareto and log-logistic distributions     

D. L. Fitzgerald 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1996,10(1):1-15

The maximum product of spacings (MPS) method is discussed from the standpoint of information theory. MPS parameter and quantile estimates for the generalized Pareto distribution and the two parameter log-logistic distribution are compared with the maximum likelihood(ML) and probability weighted moment (PWM) estimates.  相似文献   

Multi-objective assessment of conservation measures for the European eel (Anguilla anguilla): an application to the Camargue lagoons     

Bevacqua  Daniele; Melia  Paco; Crivelli  Alain J.; Gatto  Marino; De Leo  Giulio A. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2007,64(7):1483-1490

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Flood estimation in Mahanadi river system,India using partial duration series     

Nibedita Guru  Ramakar Jha 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2016,10(2):135-145

Flood frequency analysis is a pre-requisite for setting up and safeguarding of many hydraulic structures, such as dams, barrages, check-dams, culverts and urban drainage systems. In the flood frequency analysis, partial duration series (PDS) may be considered when dealing with values exceeding certain limits causing floods. In fact, the PDS is capable of getting more information about extreme events than the annual maximum series (AMS). Additionally, an assumption that, the magnitude of the extreme events of a PDS is best described by a generalized Pareto (GP) distribution. The present work investigates the at-site flood frequency analysis to find the average number of peaks (λ) for modelling the PDS on the basis of the PDS/GP assumption and variability in the GP parameters coupled with the quantile estimation with an increase in the value of average number of peaks (λ) each year in the Mahanadi river system, Odisha, India. Also, to verify the PDS/GP assumption we tested seven different frequency distributions (Exponential, Gumbel, logistics, generalized extreme value (GEV), Lognormal (LN), generalized logistics (GL) and Pearson Type 3). Extensive daily discharge data collected from 23 gauging sites were used for the analysis. The results indicate precision and stability of GP distribution parameters for λ?=?4 for almost all the discharge sites. The peak flood estimated for various return periods in the Mahanadi river system using GP distribution is endowed with high correlation statistics for this λ value.  相似文献   

Statistics for Modeling Heavy Tailed Distributions in Geology: Part I. Methodology     

Jef Caers  Jan Beirlant  Marc A. Maes 《Mathematical Geology》1999,31(4):391-410

Many natural phenomena exhibit size distributions that are power laws or power law type distributions. Power laws are specific in the sense that they can exhibit extremely long or heavy tails. The largest event in a sample from such distribution usually dominates the underlying physical or generating process (floods, earthquakes, diamond sizes and values, incomes, insurance). Often, the practitioner is faced with the difficult problem of predicting values far beyond the highest sample value and designing his system either to profit from them, or to protect against extreme quantiles. In this paper, we present a novel approach to estimating such heavy tails. The estimation of tail characteristics such as the extreme value index, extreme quantiles, and percentiles (rare events) is shown to depend primarily on the number of extreme data that are used to model the tail. Because only the most extreme data are useful for studying tails, thresholds must be selected above which the data are modeled as power laws. The mean square error (MSE) is used to select such thresholds. A semiparametric bootstrap method is developed to study estimation bias and variance and to derive confidence limits. A simulation study is performed to assess the accuracy of these confidence limits. The overall methodology is applied to the Harvard Central Moment Tensor catalog of global earthquakes.  相似文献   

Long-term Correlations and Extreme Wind Speed Estimations     

Lei LIU  Fei HU 《大气科学进展》2019,36(10):1121-1128

In this paper, we use fluctuation analysis to study statistical correlations in wind speed time series. Each time series used here was recorded hourly over 40 years. The fluctuation functions of wind speed time series were found to scale with a universal exponent approximating to 0.7, which means that the wind speed time series are long-term correlated. In the classical method of extreme estimations, data are commonly assumed to be independent (without correlations). This assumption will lead to an overestimation if data are long-term correlated. We thus propose a simple method to improve extreme wind speed estimations based on correlation analysis. In our method, extreme wind speeds are obtained by simply scaling the mean return period in the classical method. The scaling ratio is an analytic function of the scaling exponent in the fluctuation analysis.  相似文献   

柱下独立基础稳健性设计与分析     

赵密  张少华  钟紫蓝  侯本伟  杜修力 《岩土力学》2019,40(11):4506-4514

岩土工程随机参数统计特征的不确定性,使得岩土工程可靠度设计存在一定风险。岩土工程稳健性设计能够充分考虑随机参数的不确定性结合结构安全性、稳健性和经济性实现最优设计。针对随机参数统计特征的不确定性对柱下独立基础设计的影响,基于可靠度理论和岩土工程稳健性设计方法,考虑岩土参数、混凝土和钢筋材料力学参数统计特征不确定性的影响,以独立基础几何尺寸作为可控设计参数进行设计分析。将独立基础地基承载力、地基变形、基础结构冲切破坏和基础弯曲破坏4种失效模式视为串联系统,进行多失效模式下的结构体系稳健性设计,分析了多失效模式下结构几何参数与结构体系可靠度的关系。结合稳健性和经济性,进行了独立基础多目标优化设计,确定柱下独立基础设计的最优解。  相似文献   

水资源空间优化配置的群智能算法改进与仿真     

侯景伟  吴建军 《地球信息科学学报》2015,17(4):431-437

本文尝试用群智能算法中的Pareto蚁群算法(PACA)求解复杂的水资源空间优化配置问题。首先,建立了以社会、经济和生态综合效益最大的目标函数,以水质、需水和供水为约束条件的水资源空间优化配置模型,并采用局部信息素强度限制,全局信息素动态更新等策略,对PACA进行改进,使蚂蚁向信息素浓度大的优化边界移动,以提高PACA的全局搜索能力和收敛速度。本文以河南省镇平县为仿真对象,借助RS和GIS,利用改进的PACA求解水资源空间优化配置模型,得到地表水、地下水、外调水的最优配置方案和最佳经济、社会、生态效益方案。通过对PACA性能指标的分析,以及对PACA改进前后解的寻优对比,表明了PACA经过改进后能有效地求解多目标、大规模的水资源空间优化配置模型,提高了寻优性能、收敛速度和全局搜索能力。  相似文献   

江淮地区极端降水特征及其变化趋势的研究   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

王静  余锦华  何俊琦 《气候与环境研究》2015,20(1):80-88

利用1961~2011年江淮地区5~9月无缺测的71站逐日降水资料,做基于POT(Peaks-Over-Threshold)的广义Pareto分布(GPD),研究江淮地区极端降水的分布特征及其变化趋势。结果表明:(1)皖赣交界处阈值最大,西北和东南部较小,且江淮大部分地区阈值的线性趋势系数为正,其中湖北东部和江西北部的站点,趋势达0.8 mm(10 a)-1以上,并通过了显著性水平0.01的MK(Mann-Kendall)检验。(2)江淮地区中东部多存在连续性极端降水,因此文中采用基于极值指数的自动分串技术获得近似独立的极值样本。(3)尺度参数大值区位于江淮南部,西北、东南以及淮河以北较小,且线性趋势系数在大部分地区均表现为正值,表明出现降水极大值的概率增加。(4)皖赣鄂交界处是极端降水发生概率大值区,而西北、东南及安徽中部地区较小,且极端降水在大部分地区有增加的趋势,特别是在大别山附近及河南东部,2年和20年重现水平的趋势分别达6 mm(10 a)-1和20 mm(10 a)-1以上。  相似文献   

基于多状态Markov链模式的极端降水模拟试验   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

丁裕国  张金铃  江志红 《气象学报》2009,67(1):20-27

文中建立了基于多状态一阶Markov链的逐日降水量随机模式式结合广义帕雷托分布(GPD)产生夏季逐日极端降水量的模拟资料,结果所显示的各种气候特征表明,绝大多数站点(尤其是中国东部多雨地区)都达到较高的精度.分析表明,该模式对中国东部极端降水特征的模拟能力在某些方面优于两状态一阶Markov链模式.对东部6个代表站模拟试验结果表明,月降水均方差、日降水极大值、月半均降水日数、日降水均方差、日平均降水量等指标与实况比较,均证明该模式对逐日降水量的模拟效果较好,基本模拟出降水量的各种特征.对中同东部78个代表站采用的两种模式模拟结果对比发现,除日平均降水量以外,月半均降水日数、日降水平均极大值都与实际观测结果较为一致,总体上优于两状态模式,说明用该模式在全国范围内模拟逐日降水特征尤其是极端降水特征有较高的町行性.例如,由其中6个代表站模拟资料所拟合的极端降水GPD模式具有较高的拟合优度.无论从门限值或重现期值来看都可发现模拟与实测结果有较好的相似性,且两者门限值的误差越小,重现期极值的差距也越小.证明Markov链模式对极端降水的模拟有广泛的适用性.  相似文献