Performance assessment of genetic programming (GP) and minimax probability machine regression (MPMR) for prediction of seismic ultrasonic attenuation   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Manoj Kumar  Manav Mittal  Pijush Samui 《地震科学（英文版）》2013,26(2):147-150

The determination of seismic attenuation (s) (dB/cm) is a challenging task in earthquake science. This article employs genetic programming (GP) and minimax probability machine regression (MPMR) for prediction of s. GP is developed based on genetic algorithm. MPMR maximizes the minimum probability of future predictions being within some bound of the true regression function. Porosity (n) (%), permeability (k) (millidarcy), grain size (d) (μm), and clay content (c) (%) have been considered as inputs of GP and MPMR. The output of GP and MPMR is s. The developed GP gives an equation for prediction of s. The results of GP and MPMR have been compared with the artificial neural network. This article gives robust models based on GP and MPMR for prediction of s.  相似文献   

南方持续低温冻雨事件预测的前期信号   总被引：9，自引：2，他引：7       下载免费PDF全文

钱维宏  张宗婕 《地球物理学报》2012,55(5):1501-1512

1960-2008年冬季期间,中国南方发生了23次低温冰冻(冻雨)天气事件,其中满足站日数大于10的事件有11次.2008年初中国南方发生了一场影响巨大的区域持续性低温冻雨天气事件,2011年初再次发生了类似的区域持续性低温冻雨事件.提前5天预报这类极端事件是国内外大气科学面临的难题.利用去逐日气候变化后的逐日850 hPa温度扰动,可以提前3~10天发现中国南方持续低温雨雪冰冻(冻雨)事件发生的信号.2008年初和2011初,影响中国南方的850 hPa冷空气扰动具有源地和路径相似性,它们都来自北非-中东并绕过青藏高原北侧到达中国南方,在对流层大气中形成"冷-暖-冷"的温度垂直结构.通过对欧洲中期天气预报模式产品中850 hPa温度扰动的相似性分析,成功地提前4~9天实际预报出了2011年初的中国南方低温冻雨天气过程.  相似文献   

台湾地区强震前加卸载响应比特征     

张清秀  倪小寅  袁丽文  陈莹  程庆斌 《华南地震》2014,(3):18-23

对台湾地区加卸载响应比沿时间进程的发展趋势进行分析,结果显示:台湾MS≥7.0级地震前加卸载响应比可能出现高值异常或小幅度的突升现象;超过50%的7级强震前,加卸载响应比出现趋势上升异常,未来地震震级与趋势异常上升幅度、异常持续时间之间呈线性正相关,即异常持续时间越长,其上升的异常幅度也越大,未来地震的震级也越大。出现趋势上升异常的地震震中均处在北纬24°以南的台湾东带区域。  相似文献   

川滇地区未来强震预测与汶川M_w7.9级地震孕震过程分析   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5       下载免费PDF全文

秦四清  薛雷  徐锡伟  黄鑫  王媛媛  泮晓华 《地球物理学报》2010,53(11):2639-2650

根据作者提出的孕震时空区域划分原则,确定了川滇地区地震区(带)划分的合理方案.运用孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论与相关预测方法,给出了各地震区(带)未来强震的四要素预测结果.结果表明,除西昌、丽江与鲜水河地震区在较长一段时间内无破坏性地震发生外,其他地震区都将有破坏性地震发生.本文还分析了汶川大地震的孕震过程.结果表明:导致2008年5月12日汶川M_w7.9级地震的最直接原因,是1976年发生在松潘-平武的M_S7.2级双震震群事件.  相似文献   

地震活动加速模型在西北地区的应用   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5       下载免费PDF全文

马禾青  赵卫明  张文孝  金春华 《地震工程学报》2003,25(4):344-347,369

对地震活动加速模型进行了更加深入的讨论,提出了一种该模型的时间-破裂方程的直接解法．应用地震活动加速模型对1970年以来发生在中国西北甘、宁、青、新、蒙五省(区)的中强地震进行了回顾性预测检验并进行了地震预测．  相似文献   

Prediction of groundwater inflow into copper mines of the Lubin Głogów Copper District     

T. Bocheńska  J. Fiszer  M. Kalisz 《Environmental Geology》2000,39(6):587-594

 The Lubin Głogów copper district (lgom) is in an area of copper mining, where ore is mined at a depth of 600–1200 m below surface. Mine dewatering directly influences W-1 limestone aquifer of Permian (Zechstein) age and indirectly impacts a Triassic sandstone aquifer as well as water-bearing sediments interbeded with the coals. The prediction of groundwater inflow into mines has been performed using methods of mathematical modelling. In succeeding steps of the approach, the scheme of the hydrogeological framework was changed starting from the one-layer model up to the four-layer model. The evolution of this hydrogeological schematization is presented in this paper. The latest scheme characterizes such levels of details that allows the following predictions: (1) expansion of depression in all aquifers is influenced by dewatering, (2) the widest extent of depression is in the southern direction, (3) groundwater inflow to the Lubin and Rudna mines will remain at the same level, while the inflow to the Polkowice mine will increase by 25%. Reliable prediction can be achieved by incorporating the entire recharge and drainage area characteristics of the aquifer influenced by mine dewatering into the model. Received: 7 March 1998 · Accepted: 7 December 1998  相似文献   

Analysis of dynamic factors of debris landslide by means of the model of quantitative theory—using the Xintan landslide, China, as an example   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

He Keqiang  Yang Jibao  Wang Sijing 《Environmental Geology》2005,48(6):676-681

If prediction of a debris landslide is to be completed, the first problem is how to determine and correlate the dynamic factors. The special composition and complicated geological conditions of debris landslides have many dynamic factors influencing displacement and stability. Correlations are generally very complicated. The relationship and sequence of factors is too complex to be completed by traditional mathematical model. In order to solve the problem above, a systematical study of the quantitative and qualitative dynamic factors using a model of the quantitative theory was performed based on the displacements of Xintan landslide, China. Rainfall was found to be the most important dynamic factor among the six factors controlling displacements. Relative importance sequence and correlation was also established. All prediction results agree with the mechanism and displacement pattern of the Xintan landslide. Optimized measures of prevention and control for debris landslides can be completed with correlation of the dynamic factors by means of the quantitative theory model.  相似文献   

松嫩辽流域夏季面雨量预测因子探讨   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

陈丽娟张培群  赵振国 《应用气象学报》2005,16(5):663-669

利用松花江、嫩江、辽河流域50余年45站降水资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料, 分析了松嫩辽流域夏季面雨量的气候特征和影响夏季面雨量异常的前期因子, 提出了一种利用前期11～12月北半球环流异常特征对该流域夏季旱涝趋势定性预测的方案, 方案中定义了两个反映中高纬环流异常的指数, 可以较好地分辨和预测松嫩辽流域面雨量异常。  相似文献   

云南省地质灾害预报预警系统   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

张红兵 《云南地质》2006,25(3):297-302

基于云南省地质灾害综合研究成果，架构云南省地质灾害预报预警模型方法，认为：影响地质灾害活动是多种因素叠加，地质灾害系统是一个开放、复杂的灾害系统。在对影响地质灾害发生因素分析的基础上，可以利用相应的预测模型，对给定区域内发生地质灾害的危险度作预测，由此创建概念模型和数学模型，运用VB语言在MapGIS平台上进行二次开发，建立了云南省地质灾害预报预警系统。  相似文献   

基于Logistic回归和多指标叠加的短时强降水预报模型     

白晓平  靳双龙  王式功  赵璐  尚可政 《气象科学》2018,38(4):553-558

利用2001—2011年中国西北地区东部10个特征站地面常规资料和MICAPS系统特征参数资料,分别运用改进的二元Logistic回归法和综合多指标叠加法,通过短时强降水天气学概念模型识别入型、水汽条件消空、敏感物理参数诊断等方法逐级判别,建立了两种短时强降水预报模型,并运用模型试预报2012年该区域的短时强降水过程。结果表明:两种新建预报模型相比平均气候概率模型试预报效果都有明显提高,而且前者高于后者;其中二元Logistic回归模型试预报TS得分高达46.6%,综合多指标叠加模型试预报TS得分19.6%,而平均气候概率模型试预报TS得分仅9. 7%;除西南气流型两者预报效果相当外,不同概念模型下二元Logistic回归模型试预报效果均优于综合多指标叠加模型。  相似文献