A comparative study of extensive machine learning models for predicting long-term monthly rainfall with an ensemble of climatic and meteorological predictors     

Zhengzheng Zhou  Jie Ren  Xiaogang He  Shuguang Liu 《水文研究》2021,35(11):e14424

Rainfall prediction is of vital importance in water resources management. Accurate long-term rainfall prediction remains an open and challenging problem. Machine learning techniques, as an increasingly popular approach, provide an attractive alternative to traditional methods. The main objective of this study was to improve the prediction accuracy of machine learning-based methods for monthly rainfall, and to improve the understanding of the role of large-scale climatic variables and local meteorological variables in rainfall prediction. One regression model autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) and five state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms, including artificial neural networks, support vector machine, random forest (RF), gradient boosting regression, and dual-stage attention-based recurrent neural network, were implemented for monthly rainfall prediction over 25 stations in the East China region. The results showed that the ML models outperformed ARIMA model, and RF relatively outperformed other models. Local meteorological variables, humidity, and sunshine duration, were the most important predictors in improving prediction accuracy. 4-month lagged Western North Pacific Monsoon had higher importance than other large-scale climatic variables. The overall output of rainfall prediction was scalable and could be readily generalized to other regions.  相似文献   

Modelling observed and future runoff from a glacierized tropical catchment (Cordillera Blanca, Perú)   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Irmgard Juen  Georg Kaser  Christian Georges 《Global and Planetary Change》2007,59(1-4):37

Monthly runoff from the 34.3% glacierized tropical catchment of Llanganuco in the tropical Cordillera Blanca, Perú, is successfully simulated and compared with a measured 44 year time series. In the investigation area, the climate is characterized by all-year round homogenous temperature conditions and a strong variability in air humidity and moisture content of the atmosphere. Thus, contrary to the mid latitudes, the seasonal variation in glacier melt strongly depends on moisture-related variables, rather than on air temperature. The here presented ITGG-2.0-R model aims for these requirements. The lack of moisture-related input data other than precipitation demands for an intermediate calibration step. Net shortwave radiation, the emissivity of the atmosphere and a sublimation/melt ratio are related to precipitation amounts. Runoff is well simulated and correlates with the measured record with r² = 0.76. Seasonally obtained r² are only slightly smaller. On a long-term, the cumulative deviation is minor, and the mean annual cycle of runoff is reproduced rather well (r² = 0.99). Based on four different IPCC climate change scenarios, future runoff is simulated. All runoff scenarios are modelled for the respective steady-state glacier extent. This leads to a reduction in the glacier size and a decreased amount of glacier melt. On the other hand, direct runoff increases due to larger glacier free areas. Consequently, mean annual runoff remains almost unchanged, but the seasonality intensifies considerably with more runoff during the wet and less runoff during the dry season.  相似文献   

山东地壳运动GPS观测网的建设与初步结果分析   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

李杰  殷海涛  张玲  董小娜 《大地测量与地球动力学》2007,27(Z1):9-13

简述山东地壳运动GPS观测网的建设和数据处理的基本方法，并对系统所得的初步结果进行分析，分析表明，该系统可产出连续、高精度的GPS基准站三维坐标及基线数据，可为地震监测和地壳运动的科学研究提供良好的GPS数据素材。  相似文献   

济南地区地下水位观测井固体潮对比研究          下载免费PDF全文

苏道磊  董晓娜  王晓军  刘晨 《山东国土资源》2007,23(4):7-10

收集了济南地区3口地下水位观测井的水位观测数据,分析了水位资料的变化规律与差异,重点针对观测井的固体潮效应,采用维尼迪科夫调和分析法求解出各井孔固体潮效应参数值。对比分析了M2波月序列潮汐因子、相对误差的大小,对井孔的内在质量进行了对比分析及客观评价。  相似文献   

模糊评判法在公路黄土洞穴发育程度分区中的应用   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

孙萍  彭建兵  陈立伟 《地球科学与环境学报》2007,29(4):393-399

阐述了影响黄土洞穴形成的黄土湿陷性、崩解性、地质构造、节理裂隙、微地形地貌和水文及气候条件等工程地质特性和地质因素;在公路沿线地区,公路工程质量及人类活动也是黄土洞穴形成的影响因素。洞穴发育程度分区预测和评价极具复杂性、随机性和模糊性,为此,在对各影响因素分析的基础上,借助模糊综合评判法,对黄土区公路沿线洞穴发育程度分区进行了研究。与实际情况对比分析表明,预测评价结果合理可靠,可作为黄土区已建公路洞穴灾害的防治依据。  相似文献   

Temporal variation of body-wave attenuation using earthquake doublets   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

M. J. Frémont  G. Poupinet 《Geophysical Journal International》1987,90(3):503-520

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Application of an outlier detecting method for identifying changes in the underground water level caused by crustal movements     

G. Asteriadis  G. Zioutas 《Geophysical Journal International》1990,103(2):415-424

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未来黄、东海营养盐浓度变化情景预测   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

赵一丁  杨波  魏皓  赵亮 《海洋与湖沼》2015,46(5):983-994

本文基于FGOALS(Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model)对未来气候情景的预测结果,结合千年生态评估的未来两个情景下的河流营养盐载荷特征,利用黄、东海水动力模型和生态模型并采用降尺度的方法对未来黄、东海营养盐的分布特征进行情景预测。结果表明,两个情景下未来河口邻近海区营养盐浓度将显著增加,富营养化加剧;GO(Global Orchestration)情景下,河流无机氮载荷增幅较大,夏季黄海中部无机氮浓度明显升高;AM(Adapting mosaic)情景下,由于河流无机磷载荷增幅较大,海区氮磷比有所下降,夏季黄海中部表层无机氮浓度降低,而在底层升高。通过敏感性实验并结合收支分析对各海区水动力条件未来变化、河流载荷变化的相对贡献进行了评估:相对于水温和水动力环境改变,河流营养盐排放量的增长是未来营养盐浓度增加的主要原因。营养盐收支分析表明,未来对流和混合输运的变化有助于黄海营养盐浓度的增加,夏季生物量升高造成更多碎屑沉降并在底层矿化使得层化季节冷水团底部营养盐浓度增长;长江口邻近海区营养盐浓度增长主要受冲淡水羽流的影响;净初级生产增加加剧了营养盐的消耗。  相似文献   

The 2013 Ibiza Calibration Campaign of Jason-2 and SARAL Altimeters     

F. Frappart  N. Roussel  R. Biancale  J.J. Martinez Benjamin  F. Mercier  F. Perosanz 《Marine Geodesy》2015,38(3):219-232

This study presents the results of the 2013 Ibiza (Western Mediterranean) calibration campaign of Jason-2 and SARAL altimeters. It took place from 14 to 16 September 2013 and comprised two phases: the calibration of the GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) buoys to estimate the antenna height of each of them and the absolute calibration to estimate the altimeter bias (i.e., the difference of sea level measured by radar altimetry and GNSS). The first one was achieved in the Ibiza harbor at a close vicinity of the Ibiza tide gauge and the second one was performed at ～ 40 km at the northwest of Ibiza Island at a crossover point of Jason-2 and SARAL nominal groundtracks. Five buoys were used to delineate the crossover region and their measurements interpolated at the exact location of each overflight. The overflights occurred two consecutive days: 15 and 16 September 2013 for Jason-2 and SARAL, respectively. The GNSS data were processed using precise point positioning technique. The biases found are of (?0.1 ± 0.9) and (?3.1 ± 1.5) cm for Jason-2 and SARAL, respectively.  相似文献   

粤西沿海一次赤潮事件的三维观测     

谢玲玲  陈清香  胡建宇  张书文  伊小飞  陈法锦  邓锐  邓晓东  王静  齐义泉 《海洋学报(英文版)》2015,34(1):159-161

From November 24 to 26, 2014, a red tide event occurred in the offshore water off the Hailing Island located at the western Guangdong coast. The red tide appeared as pink strips distributed within 3 km in the offshore water and extended for about 10 km along the shoreline. During the flood tide, the pink seawater rushed to the beach with breaking waves, forming foam strips on the beach. Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Coastal Ocean Variation and Disaster Prediction Technologies, Guangdong Ocean University, emergently responded to the event and organized three-dimensional observations from the air, onboard and on beach. The preliminary analyses of the cruise data and water samples indicate that the event was induced by nontoxic Noctiluca scintillans, of which the concentration reaches as high as 4 200 cells/L near the surface and 2 600 cells/L at the bottom.  相似文献