高维PP时间序列分析在地震预报中的应用   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

王琼  朱令人 《地震工程学报》2003,25(2):103-111

将投影寻踪(PP)与高维时间序列分析结合起来，建立了地震PP综合预测模型。并选取祁连山地区作研究区，做了未来三个月内最大震级的短期预测，经展望式检验，合格率(预测误差≤0．5或≤10％)≥80％。中根据实际需要提出建立一定震级门限(M≥4．0)的预测具有更好的效果。本预测模型还可增加自变量、维数和改变时间尺度，并运用到其他领域中。  相似文献   

格尔木地磁台观测环境测试与分析   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

哈辉  邱鹏程  辛长江  谢庆和  李淑玲  李富春 《地震地磁观测与研究》2003,24(5):76-81

通过实验测试和计算，分析了高压输出电线等干扰源对格尔木地磁台观测环境的影响，进一步对格尔木地磁台观测环境现状，及今后观测环境保护工作的要点进行了综合分析讨论。  相似文献   

古代生物分子在第四纪研究中的应用   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：4  

赖旭龙  杨洪 《第四纪研究》2003,23(5):457-470

从第四纪化石和沉积物中获得的古代生物分子为第四纪研究者提供了丰富和独特的有关古代生物、遗传和古环境信息的定量和高分辨率的数据.过去10多年的研究证实来自第四纪材料中的各种古代生物分子的分离、鉴定和应用的能力在不断增加.文章总结了古代生物分子在第四纪研究中的最新进展,主要包括以下几个方面的内容:1)不同类型的古代生物分子在地质体中的保存和降解;2)古DNA和古蛋白序列中的生物遗传学信息;3)单体分子同位素与第四纪古环境和古气候研究;4)建于古代生物分子水平上的第四纪年代学.作者预见对第四纪地层中的原位和分散保存的古代生物分子的研究将在广度上以多分子综合研究而深度上与单体分子同位素技术相结合,为第四纪科学家们提供大量解决地质学和演化生物学问题的高精度数据.随着地球化学和分子生物学技术的不断改进以及人们对古代生物分子的降解过程和机制的进一步理解,对古代生物分子的研究无疑将进一步促进和推动第四纪科学研究的发展.  相似文献   

电感耦合等离子体质谱(ICP-MS)技术在地学研究中的应用   总被引：30，自引：0，他引：30  

李冰  杨红霞 《地学前缘》2003,10(2):367-378

简单介绍ICP MS技术应用最新进展。着重对该技术在中国地学研究和多目标地质调查中的应用作一回顾 ,包括ICP MS技术简介和地质样品分析需求 ,稀土稀散等痕量、超痕量多元素分析 ,铂族元素分析 ,卤素等非金属元素分析 ,同位素比值分析等内容。着重对最近几年国内地质样品分析的一些新方法加以介绍。  相似文献   

原子荧光光谱法测定化探样品时有机质对As,Sb,Bi的干扰   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

汪明启  刘应汉 《地质科技情报》2003,22(1):105-109

通过研究黑龙江省森林沼泽景观区有机水系沉积物（泥炭）、土壤中As,Sb,Bi的测定结果，发现样品中的有机质对王水消解氢化物原子荧光法测定上述元素存在极大的干扰，提出采用低温（＜450℃）灰化处理可完全消除干扰。对比研究还发现，过去森林沼泽景观区的区域化探扫面资料中的As,Sb,Bi数据存在问题，应专门对其进行评价研究。  相似文献   

Decoupled seismic analysis of an earth dam   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Ernesto Cascone  Sebastiano Rampello 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2003,23(5):349-365

The seismic stability of an earth dam is evaluated via the decoupled displacement analysis using the accelerograms obtained by ground response analysis to compute the earthquake-induced displacements. The response analysis of the dam is carried out under both 1D and 2D conditions, incorporating the non-linear soil behaviour through the equivalent linear method. Ten artificial and five real accelerograms were used as input motions and four different depths were assumed for the bedrock.1D and 2D response analyses were in a fair agreement with the exception of the top third of the dam where only a 2D modelling of the problem could ensure that the acceleration field is properly described. The acceleration amplification ratio obtained in the 2D analyses was equal to about 2 in all the cases considered, consistently with data from real case histories.The maximum permanent displacements computed by the sliding block analysis were small, being less than 10% of the service freeboard; a satisfactory performance of the dam can then be envisaged for any of the seismic scenarios considered in the analyses.  相似文献   

Morphological analysis of active Mount Nemrut stratovolcano, eastern Turkey: evidences and possible impact areas of future eruption     

Erkan Aydar  Alain Gourgaud  Inan Ulusoy  Fabrice Digonnet  Philippe Labazuy  Erdal Sen  Hasan Bayhan  Turker Kurttas  Arif Umit Tolluoglu 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2003,123(3-4):301-312

Mount Nemrut, an active stratovolcano in eastern Turkey, is a great danger for its vicinity. The volcano possesses a summit caldera which cuts the volcano into two stages, i.e. pre- and post-caldera. Wisps of smoke and hot springs are to be found within the caldera. Although the last recorded volcanic activity is known to have been in 1441, we consider here that the last eruption of Nemrut occurred more recently, probably just before 1597. The present active tectonic regime, historical eruptions, occurrence of mantle-derived magmatic gases and the fumarole and hot spring activities on the caldera floor make Nemrut Volcano a real danger for its vicinity. According to the volcanological past of Nemrut, the styles of expected eruptions are well-focused on two types: (1) occurrence of water within the caldera leads to phreatomagmatic (highly energetic) eruptions, subsequently followed by lava extrusions, and (2) effusions–extrusions (non-explosive or weakly energetic eruptions) on the flanks from fissures. To predict the impact area of future eruptions, a series of morphological analyses based on field observations, Digital Elevation Model and satellite images were realized. Twenty-two valleys (main transport pathways) were classified according to their importance, and the physical parameters related to the valleys were determined. The slope values in each point of the flanks and the Heim parameters H/L were calculated. In the light of morphological analysis the possible impact areas around the volcano and danger zones were proposed. The possible transport pathways of the products of expected volcanic events are unified in three main directions: Bitlis, Guroymak, Tatvan and Ahlat cities, the about 135 000 inhabitants of which could be threatened by future eruptions of this poorly known and unsurveyed volcano.  相似文献   

On the field-aligned currents pattern formation in the magnetosphere     

P. Nenovski  D. Danov  A. Bochev   《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2003,65(16-18):1369-1383

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A unified formulation of the piecewise exact method for inelastic seismic demand analysis including the P‐delta effect     

M. N. Ayd&#x;nolu  Y. M. Fahjan 《地震工程与结构动力学》2003,32(6):871-890

The non‐linear analysis of single‐degree‐of‐freedom (SDOF) systems provides the essential background information for both strength‐based design and displacement‐based evaluation/design methodologies through the development of the inelastic response spectra. The recursive solution procedure called the piecewise exact method, which is efficiently used for the response analysis of linear SDOF systems, is re‐formulated in this paper in a unified format to analyse the non‐linear SDOF systems with multi‐linear hysteresis models. The unified formulation is also capable of handling the P‐delta effect, which generally involves the negative post‐yield stiffness of the hysteresis loops. The attractiveness of the method lies in the fact that it provides the exact solution when the loading time history is composed of piecewise linear segments, a condition that is perfectly satisfied for the earthquake excitation. Based on simple recursive relationships given for positive, negative and zero effective stiffnesses, the unified form of the piecewise exact method proves to be an extremely powerful and probably the best tool for the SDOF inelastic time‐history and response spectrum analysis including the P‐delta effect. A number of examples are presented to demonstrate the implementation of the method. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Physical model for dynamic analysis of structures with FPS isolators     

Jos L. Almazn  Juan C. De la Llera 《地震工程与结构动力学》2003,32(8):1157-1184

This article presents a physical model for frictional pendulum isolators (FPS) that is ready to be implemented in most commercial software. The model is capable of accounting for effects such as large deformations, sticking, and uplift and impact by sensing the normal loads in the isolators through a gap element. Sticking has been incorporated into the model by extending the Park–Wen hysteretic model to the case of large deformations. The proposed model has been tested against a theoretically ‘exact’ formulation leading to essentially identical results. To facilitate its use, the physical FPS model has been cast into a typical non‐linear structural element format, i.e. with deformation as input and restoring force as output. Examples of a building and a bridge have been chosen to show the potential of the element and to provide further insight into the earthquake response of structures with FPS isolators; in particular, in aspects such as the orientation in placement of the isolator, sticking, P? Δ, and other large deformation effects. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献