The Arctic and Antarctic Oscillations in the IPCC AR4 Coupled Models          下载免费PDF全文

ZHU Yali  WANG Huijun 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2010,24(2):176-188

This study evaluates the fidelity of Arctic and Antarctic oscillations (AO and AAO for short,respectively) in the coupled general circulation models participating in the Fourth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4).The AO and AAO during 1970-1999 in 24 models are analyzed and compared with that in ERA-40 and NCEP-1.Models'performance is seasonally dependent,with best reproducibility of both spatial structure and trend in winter.In most models,the spatial pattern and temporal trend of AAO during this period are more delicately simulated than AO.After picking out models with better performance according to the Taylor diagram,we find that their ensemble mean can obviously improve models'reproducibility.The AO and AAO in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B Projection during the 21st century are also briefly analyzed.The results reveal that both the AO and AAO indices keep increasing during 1970-2099,with a steadier pace of AO than AAO.The spatial difference of sea level pressure between 2060 2089 and 1970-1999 shows decreased values in polar regions,and increased values in midlatitudes.The results manifest that the ozone recovery during the mid 21st century may not weaken such a trend.  相似文献   

Model Projections of East Asian Summer Climate under the ‘Free Arctic’ Scenario          下载免费PDF全文

WANG Hui-Jun  ZHANG Ying 《大气和海洋科学快报》2010,3(3):176-180

This paper addresses the ‘ice-free Arctic’ issue under the future global warming scenario. Four coupled climate models used in the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) were selected to project summer climate conditions over East Asia once the Arctic becomes ice-free. The models project that an ice-free Arctic summer will begin in the 2060s under the SRESA1B (according to IPCC Special Reports on Emissions Scenarios) simulations. Our results show that the East Asian summer monsoons will tend to be stronger and that the water vapor transport to central northern China will be strengthened, leading to increased summer precipitation in central northern China. The models also project an intensified Antarctic Oscillation, a condition which favors increased precipitation in South China’s Yangtze River Valley. The overall precipitation in Northwest China is projected to increase under ice-free Arctic summer conditions.  相似文献   

Stratiform Cloud—Inversion Characterization During the Arctic Melt Season   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Joseph Sedlar  Michael Tjernström 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2009,132(3):455-474

Data collected during July and August from the Arctic Ocean Experiment 2001 illustrated a common occurrence of specific-humidity (q) inversions, where moisture increases with height, coinciding with temperature inversions in the central Arctic boundary layer and lower troposphere. Low-level stratiform clouds and their relationship to temperature inversions are examined using radiosonde data and data from a suite of remote sensing instrumentation. Two low-level cloud regimes are identified: the canonical case of stratiform clouds, where the cloud tops are capped by the temperature inversion base (CCI—Clouds Capped by Inversion) and clouds where the cloud tops were found well inside the inversion (CII—Clouds Inside Inversion). The latter case was found to occur more than twice as frequently than the former. The characteristic of the temperature inversion is shown to have an influence on the cloud regime that was supported. Statistical analyses of the cloud regimes using remote sensing instruments suggest that CCI cases tend to be dominated by single-phase liquid cloud droplets; radiative cooling at the cloud top limits the vertical extent of such clouds to the inversion base height. The CII cases, on the other hand, display characteristics that can be divided into two situations—(1) clouds that only slightly penetrate the temperature inversion and exhibit a microphysical signal similar to CCI cases, or (2) clouds that extend higher into the inversion and show evidence of a mixed-phase cloud structure. An important interplay between the mixed-phase structure and an increased potential for turbulent mixing across the inversion base appears to support the lifetime of CII cases existing within the inversion layer.  相似文献   

On the Association between Spring Arctic Sea Ice Concentration and Chinese Summer Rainfall： A Further Study   总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9  

武炳义  张人禾 《大气科学进展》2009,26(4):666-678

In our previous study,a statistical linkage between the spring Arctic sea ice concentration(SIC)and the succeeding Chinese summer rainfall during the period 1968–2005 was identified.This linkage is demonstrated by the leading singular value decomposition(SVD)that accounts for 19%of the co-variance.Both spring SIC and Chinese summer rainfall exhibit a coherent interannual variability and two apparent interdecadal variations that occurred in the late 1970s and the early 1990s.The combined impacts of both spri...  相似文献   

我国西北地区气候变化与北极涛动的交叉小波分析   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

郭渠  孙卫国  程炳岩  邓爱娟 《南京气象学院学报》2008,31(6):811-818

运用交叉小波方法分析了近56 a来我国西北地区气候变化与北极涛动指数（AOI）、欧亚纬向环流指数之间的联系,讨论了西北地区冬季气温和夏季降水变化与同期AOI之间的多时间尺度相关。结果表明,AOI、西北地区降水和气温变化都存在着不同尺度的周期振荡,西北地区降水与AOI之间存在准3 a尺度的显著共振周期,而AOI与西北地区气温变化的多时间尺度相关表现为准2a、3-5 a和8-11 a左右的显著相关振荡且以8-11 a共振周期的凝聚性最强;AO对西北地区气温变化的影响比对降水的影响更显著,与其年代际尺度的相互作用有关。当冬季北极涛动处于正相位时,欧亚纬向环流偏强,西北地区冬季气温偏高。夏季西北地区降水变化与前期北极涛动指数异常密切相关,这对于西北地区夏季降水变化预测具有重要的参考意义。  相似文献   

高低层纬向风切变的年际变率及气候学意义     

胡豪然  钱维宏  李跃清 《大气科学》2008,32(3):543-551

用1959～1998共40年全球格点风场资料计算了200 hPa与850 hPa的纬向风速差, 即对流层纬向风切变(简称TZWS),并在此基础上得到其距平值。为了全面考察对流层中环流异常的年际变率特征, 根据TZWS的标准差分布, 文中选出了7个TZWS标准差数值大于5 m/s的代表性区域。这7个区域分别位于赤道中太平洋、赤道东太平洋、北太平洋亚热带地区、南太平洋亚热带地区、赤道大西洋、亚洲西南部以及东北部。前5个分别位于赤道、亚热带太平洋和大西洋的区域TZWS指数, 其年际变率与ENSO循环有密切联系, 反映了热带海洋温度异常对低纬度地区对流层环流的影响; 后2个区域的TZWS指数反映的是亚洲西南部和东北部的气候统变率, 在年际时间尺度上与ENSO循环有着明显的区别。通过对全球陆地降水和温度场的分析, 比较了热带、副热带的TZWS指数以及北极涛动指数的异同, 发现后2个区域TZWS指数能很好且能独立反映出北半球中高纬度地区陆地降水及陆地温度的异常模态。  相似文献   

Evidence for a warmer period during the 12th and 13th centuries AD from chironomid assemblages in Southampton Island, Nunavut, Canada     

Nicolas Rolland  Isabelle Larocque  Pierre Francus  Reinhard Pienitz 《Quaternary Research》2009,72(1):27-37

This study presents the Late-Holocene evolution of a northern Southampton Island (Nunavut, Canada) lake, using fossil chironomids supported by sedimentological evidences (XRF, grain size and CNS). All proxies revealed a relatively stable environment during the last millennium with short-lived events driving changes in the entire lake ecosystem. The chironomid-based paleotemperatures revealed variations of significant amplitude coincident with changes in the sediment density and chemical composition of the core. Higher temperature intervals were generally correlated to lower sediment density with higher chironomid concentration and diversity. Higher temperatures were recorded from cal yr AD 1160 to AD 1360, which may correspond to the Medieval Warm Period. Between cal yr AD 1360 and AD 1700, lower temperatures were probably related to a Little Ice Age event. This study presents new information on the timing of known climatic events which will refine our knowledge of the paleoclimate and climatic models of the Foxe Basin region. It also provides a new framework for the evolution of such freshwater ecosystems under the “Anthropocene” and underlines the importance of including sedimentological proxies when interpreting chironomid remains as this combined approach provides an extended overview of the past hydrological and geochemical changes and their impacts on lake biota.  相似文献   

Long-range aircraft as an Arctic Oceanographic platform   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Vicki A. Childers  John M. Brozena 《Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers》2005,52(12):2366-2375

Synoptic basin-wide measurements of Arctic Ocean temperature and salinity are now possible with the recent development of an expendable conductivity, temperature, and depth probe for deployment from aircraft (AXCTD). Both the P-3 Orion aircraft and the C-130 aircraft are capable of long-range, low-altitude flight and are ideal for Arctic research. Expendable profilers can be quickly deployed over vast regions from aircraft and in locations with limited ship access, but have the disadvantage of measuring only the top 1000 m and of being about an order of magnitude less accurate than a CTD cast, primarily because of noisy salinity measurements and depth-fall rate errors. We explore how to conduct an ACXTD measurement program in ice-covered seas and discuss a test of these methods conducted in the Arctic Ocean's Eurasian Basin. Long-range aircraft can significantly augment the present program of Arctic research by performing large-area surveys, continuing time series with repeat measurements, and by helping target locations for more detailed and accurate shipboard measurement.  相似文献   

北极涛动年代际变化对东亚北部冬季气温增暖的影响   总被引：49，自引：17，他引：32  

琚建华  任菊章  吕俊梅 《高原气象》2004,23(4):429-434

利用NCEP／NCAR再分析资料中的地表气温资料,分析了1949-1999年东亚北部地区冬季气温的变化。结果表明,从20世纪70年代中期开始东亚北部的气温显著升高,具有明显的年代际变化特征。这种气温的异常变化主要受东亚冬季风的直接影响。近二十几年来,北极涛动对东亚冬季风的影响越来越显著,北极涛动维持在正位相并持续增强,同期东亚冬季风持续减弱。研究表明,北极涛动持续增强的趋势是东亚北部地区冬季增暖的重要原因之一。  相似文献   

Simulated circum-Arctic climate changes by the end of the 21st century   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Annette Rinke  Klaus Dethloff 《Global and Planetary Change》2008,62(1-2):173-186

This study investigates future changes of the Arctic climate by the end of the 21st century, simulated by the regional climate model HIRHAM forced with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM general circulation model and assuming the SRES A1B emission scenario. This assessment provides the regional patterns of future circulation, temperature, and precipitation in the Arctic by the end of the 21st century. The magnitude of winter and summer temperature and precipitation is projected to increase, while their interannual variability is projected to change seasonally and is regionally dependent. The regional-scale response of the temperature and precipitation is associated with changes in storm tracks and atmospheric baroclinicity. During winter, the regions of strongest baroclinicity are shifted northward and strengthened. Changes in the seasonal temperature and precipitation are accompanied by changes in their extremes. Extreme warm and cold events are significantly projected to change, with relative changes of seasonal precipitation being larger than those of precipitation extremes.  相似文献