一种新的线性回归模型及其应用示例     

陈璇  游小宝  郑崇伟  孙威  谢胜浪 《大气科学》2019,43(2):389-400

回归分析是统计分析中常用的方法之一。传统的回归模型不具备全域分析能力,而变量场之间的关系多采用SVD（Singular Value Decomposition）进行分析,与传统的回归分析有所脱节。更为广义的线性回归模型是传统线性回归模型的延拓,在标量情况下,该模型可转化为传统线性回归模型。该模型的基本特征包含乘法不可互易性、等价于传统线性回归（因子项为标量时）、可分析性、延拓性、降维特征及容错性等。该模型解决了传统的线性回归模型不具备全域分析能力及模型表达能力受限于模型维数的现实问题。本文采用了NCEP（National Centers for Environmental Prediction）降水、高度场、风场月平均资料及国家气候中心西太平洋副热带高压指数资料,利用该模型和传统回归方案进行对比分析,分析结果表明,该模型具有一定的实用参考价值。  相似文献   

Regression modeling method of space weather prediction     

A. S. Parnowski 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2009,323(2):169-180

A regression modeling method of space weather prediction is proposed. It allows forecasting Dst index up to 6 hours ahead with about 90% correlation. It can also be used for constructing phenomenological models of interaction between the solar wind and the magnetosphere. With its help two new geoeffective parameters were found: latitudinal and longitudinal flow angles of the solar wind. It was shown that Dst index remembers its previous values for 2000 hours.  相似文献   

数理统计在工程勘察原始数据合理性检验中的应用     

钱明  顾兆君  邴启超 《中国勘察设计》2010,(6):66-67

在工程勘察内业资料整理过程中,原始数据的合理性检验是一个重要过程,这里着重介绍3σ准则和Chauvenet准则,并绘制相关程序流程图,使数理统计之计算电算化,以达到提高工作效率的目的。  相似文献   

A probabilistic assessment of design sloshing pressure time histories in LNG tanks     

Mateusz Graczyk  Torgeir Moan 《Ocean Engineering》2008,35(8-9):834-855

The violent motion (sloshing) of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in cargo tanks has attracted significant attention. Transformations of the LNG market have led to the increased transport of LNG in partially filled tanks, but established technology is mainly based on engineering experience with completely filled containers. This paper investigates a large sample of sloshing pressure measurements. It focuses on the magnitude of individual sloshing impact events, and their associated temporal and spatial patterns. The durations of these impacts are comparable to the natural frequency of an LNG container wall, so the details of their time histories are important in determining the structural response. Experiments are performed on tanks with high (92.5%) and low (30%) filling levels, for various wave headings. The common post-processing approach of representing impact pressure histories by a triangular profile is studied, and an alternative approach is presented. Two statistical models are used to describe the distribution of maximal pressures in sloshing impacts: a three-parameter Weibull model and a generalized Pareto model. The latter is found to be of questionable utility due to small sample sizes. It is observed that for low filling levels the sloshing impacts are of greater magnitude, having longer durations, smaller ratios of rise time to duration, and larger spatial extents. All these factors should in principle increase the structural response.  相似文献   

遥感技术在鄂尔多斯盆地东南部煤层气勘探中的应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

余华琪  齐小平 《国土资源遥感》2001,12(3):11-14,69

从鄂尔多斯盆地黄土塬区煤层气勘探的实际需要出发,通过遥感解译,利用裂缝密度统计分析方法,对研究区煤层气高渗区带进行了预测,并对区内煤层气勘探的有利区带进行了初步评价,为煤层气勘探提供了重要的参考资料.  相似文献   

“频谱分析法”在兰州市地下水水源地水情预报中的应用   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

佟成利 《甘肃地质》1995,4(1):77-81

利用“频谱分析法”预报地下水位经实际监测结果的误差检验，认为该方法用于地下水水源地水位预报是基本可行的。为今后广泛开展地下水情预测预报提供了一条有效途径。  相似文献   

中国大陆强震灾害范围的统计研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

王健  张晓东 《中国地震》1998,14(3):26-31

强震的灾害范围是非常重要的地震学参数,它在地震灾害快速评估,地震保险及防震减灾等方面有着广泛的应用。本文全面,系统地收集了中国大陆宏观等震线资料,对没有地理坐标的等震线进行了数字化。精确计算了从１３０３年至１９９４年共１８３次强震的灾害范围,并对误差因素进行了分析。  相似文献   

Regularization of geopotential determination from satellite data by variance components   总被引：11，自引：18，他引：11  

K.-R. Koch  J. Kusche 《Journal of Geodesy》2002,76(5):259-268

 Different types of present or future satellite data have to be combined by applying appropriate weighting for the determination of the gravity field of the Earth, for instance GPS observations for CHAMP with satellite to satellite tracking for the coming mission GRACE as well as gradiometer measurements for GOCE. In addition, the estimate of the geopotential has to be smoothed or regularized because of the inversion problem. It is proposed to solve these two tasks by Bayesian inference on variance components. The estimates of the variance components are computed by a stochastic estimator of the traces of matrices connected with the inverse of the matrix of normal equations, thus leading to a new method for determining variance components for large linear systems. The posterior density function for the variance components, weighting factors and regularization parameters are given in order to compute the confidence intervals for these quantities. Test computations with simulated gradiometer observations for GOCE and satellite to satellite tracking for GRACE show the validity of the approach. Received: 5 June 2001 / Accepted: 28 November 2001  相似文献   

实验室仪器设备的日常运行检查及检查结果的评价     

胡九根 《矿产与地质》2002,16(6):381-383

对实验室需要参加运行检查的仪器设备进行了确认 ,制定了运行检查的方法 ,并介绍了运行检查结果的评价方法。  相似文献   

西北太平洋热带气旋强度变化的统计特征   总被引：23，自引：4，他引：23  

余晖  端义宏 《气象学报》2002,60(6):680-687

应用 35a的资料 ,分析西北太平洋热带气旋 (TC)强度变化的基本统计特征 ,包括年代际、年际、月际、日变化和区域分布等。主要结果有 :(1)西北太平洋TC平均增强速率为 4.97hPa/6h ,标准差是 4.5 4hPa/6h。平均减弱速率为 5 .15hPa/6h ,标准差是 4.17hPa/6h ;(2 ) 2 0世纪 6 0年代中后期TC强度变幅小 ,进入 2 0世纪 70和 80年代后有所增大 ;(3) 11月TC平均增强速度最快 ,2月最慢 ,8月是TC强度变幅较小的月份 ;(4) 0 8时 (北京时 ,下同 )TC平均增强速度最快 ,14时最慢 ,平均减弱速度无明显日变化特征 ;(5 )TC发展较快的一个主要区域是 12 .5～ 2 0°N ,132 .5～ 15 0°E ,TC平均减弱速率的高值区在岛屿和大陆沿岸。在南海中部活动的TC平均强度变幅不大。依据平均值与标准差的数学涵义 ,给出了TC强度稳定、缓慢变化和迅速变化的标准。在对各级强度变化发生频率的年代际、年际、月际、日变化以及区域分布特征分别进行分析的基础上 ,重点给出了在大陆和岛屿附近迅速增强样本和在远离陆地的洋面上迅速减弱样本的一些统计特征。  相似文献