CA-AR模型在人口空间场属性变化模拟中的应用     

代富强 《测绘科学》2008,(Z1)

本文结合CA(cellular automata)和AR(auto-regression)提出模拟人口空间场属性变化的CA-AR模型,以1991～2006年成都市各区、县市的人口统计数据和成都市行政区划图为基础,将行政单元转化为单元网格,分别建立成都市主城区各单元格的CA-AR模型。结果显示,模拟结果的绝对误差和相对误差都较小,模拟精度较高,模型的显著性水平都比较高,说明CA-AR模型用于模拟人口空间场的人口数量变化是可行的。  相似文献   

水平井含水率上升影响因素   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

凌宗发  王丽娟  李保柱  夏静  朱玉新 《现代地质》2008,22(1):86-90

利用塔里木油田塔中4油田(TZ4)底水油藏相关的地质、流体数据建立数值模型。在所建模型的基础上,应用数值模拟计算的累积产油、产水和产液量回归俞启泰水驱特征曲线,以反映水平井见水特征的参数b。以参数b为研究对象,采用正交试验的方法研究不同因素对b值的影响,筛选影响水平井见水特征的主要因素,认为原油粘度、油层厚度、非均质性及水平井水平段在油藏中的位置是影响水平井含水上升趋势的主要指标。最后建立主要因素与b值的关系式,结合俞启泰曲线b值图版,提出预测水平井见水规律的公式——图版法(F-b法)。应用F-b法对塔里木水平井含水率进行预测,并与其他相关方法及实际生产数据对比,认为F-b法可作为预测塔里木油田水平井含水率、估算可采储量的一种有效方法。  相似文献   

Study on rain-runoff process in the peripheral mountainous area of the Sichuan Basin     

Fu Bin  Wang Yu-kuan  Ren Yi  Liu Cheng  Xu Pei 《中国地球化学学报》2008,27(2):183-188

Studies on rain-runoff process in the peripheral mountainous area of the Sichuan Basin, which is regarded as a key ecological shelter, will contribute to flood control and environmental protection for the Upper Yangtze River Basin. In two typical catchments--the Fujiang River Catchment and the Wujiang River Catchment, rainfall simulations have been conducted to study the rain-runoff processes of yellow soil and limestone soil in three types of land use--forestland, farmland and grassland. Results showed that （1） within the same rainfall process, overland flow occurs first on farmland, then on grassland, and finally on forestland; （2） soil surface coverage has a great impact on the occurrence and amount of overland flow. The runoff amount can increase 2-4 times after the coverage is removed; （3） the infiltration before the occurrence of overland flow will decrease because of higher gravel contents of soil, but it takes no effect on infiltration once overland flow becomes stable; （4） the runoff coefficient of the limestone soil forestland is greater than that of the yellow soil forest land, but less than that of the farmland; （5） three empirical infiltration models, including Horton＇ model, Kostiakov＇ model, and modified Kostiakov＇ model, were compared by using the observed results under rainfall simulation. The results showed that the Kostiakov＇ model performed better than both the Horton＇ model and modified Kostiakov model. According to the results of this research, the Kostiakov＇s model can be used to simulate rainfall infiltration when water erosion is modeled in the peripheral mountainous area of the Sichuan Basin.  相似文献   

Simulation experiment on hydrocarbon generating potential of various source rocks on the northern margin of the Qaidam Basin,Qinghai, China     

Xin Li  Dongliang Wang  Baoquan Liu  Chunling Ren  Jianying Guo  Xuefeng Su  Jian Wang 《中国地球化学学报》2008,27(4):412-419

The northern margin of the Qaidam Basin is one of the main oil-gas exploration areas in western China, where source rocks are composed mostly of Middle and Lower Jurassic dark mud shale, carbargillite and coal. A large number of subsurface and outcrop samples differing in lithology with different types of organic matter were selected for resource evaluation, research and calculation. And among them, 13 samples were used for simulation experiment on hydrocarbon generating potential of various source rocks. At first, two kinds of heating modes were compared through simulation experiment, including single temperature-step heating and continual heating. Perhaps, the process of hydrocarbon generation and expulsion occurred naturally between a close system and an open system. In addition, the first heating mode was convenient, and all its reaction products were involved in the whole thermal evolution, and the final simulation experimental results were basically in consistency with the natural evolution trend Therefore, the first heating mode was adopted and the hydrocarbon yield of every sample was worked out. According to the type and lithology of organic matter and the hydrocarbon yield of samples for simulation experiment, hydrocarbon generation and expulsion mode with three kinds of lithology and five types of source rock has been established to provide the basis for hydrocarbon generation evaluation, research and resource calculation.  相似文献   

流变学:构造地质学和地球动力学的支柱学科   总被引：12，自引：6，他引：6  

嵇少丞  钟大赉  许志琴  夏斌 《大地构造与成矿学》2008,32(3)

地球是一动态系统,其各层圈的构造运动归根到底就是多矿物复合岩石在各种物理条件(例如,温度、围压、差应力、应变速率、应变方式等)下和化学环境(例如,氧逸度和水含量)中的形变。流变学作为研究岩石力学性质和变形行为的科学,现已成为地球动力学和构造地质学的支柱学科。本文对国际上近年来岩石流变学的最新进展做些扼要的介绍,呼吁中国固体地学界加强流变学的研究,做出经得起时间淘洗、实践检验的原创性成果来,使中国的构造地质学研究迈进国际先进的行列。  相似文献   

Methodology and use of tensor invariants for satellite gravity gradiometry   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Oliver Baur  Nico Sneeuw  Erik W. Grafarend 《Journal of Geodesy》2008,82(4-5):279-293

Although its use is widespread in several other scientific disciplines, the theory of tensor invariants is only marginally adopted in gravity field modeling. We aim to close this gap by developing and applying the invariants approach for geopotential recovery. Gravitational tensor invariants are deduced from products of second-order derivatives of the gravitational potential. The benefit of the method presented arises from its independence of the gradiometer instrument’s orientation in space. Thus, we refrain from the classical methods for satellite gravity gradiometry analysis, i.e., in terms of individual gravity gradients, in favor of the alternative invariants approach. The invariants approach requires a tailored processing strategy. Firstly, the non-linear functionals with regard to the potential series expansion in spherical harmonics necessitates the linearization and iterative solution of the resulting least-squares problem. From the computational point of view, efficient linearization by means of perturbation theory has been adopted. It only requires the computation of reference gravity gradients. Secondly, the deduced pseudo-observations are composed of all the gravitational tensor elements, all of which require a comparable level of accuracy. Additionally, implementation of the invariants method for large data sets is a challenging task. We show the fundamentals of tensor invariants theory adapted to satellite gradiometry. With regard to the GOCE (Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer) satellite gradiometry mission, we demonstrate that the iterative parameter estimation process converges within only two iterations. Additionally, for the GOCE configuration, we show the invariants approach to be insensitive to the synthesis of unobserved gravity gradients.  相似文献   

Prediction of UT1–UTC,LOD and AAM χ<Subscript>3</Subscript> by combination of least-squares and multivariate stochastic methods     

Tomasz Niedzielski  Wiesław Kosek 《Journal of Geodesy》2008,82(2):83-92

This article presents the application of a multivariate prediction technique for predicting universal time (UT1–UTC), length of day (LOD) and the axial component of atmospheric angular momentum (AAM χ ₃). The multivariate predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC are generated by means of the combination of (1) least-squares (LS) extrapolation of models for annual, semiannual, 18.6-year, 9.3-year oscillations and for the linear trend, and (2) multivariate autoregressive (MAR) stochastic prediction of LS residuals (LS + MAR). The MAR technique enables the use of the AAM χ ₃ time-series as the explanatory variable for the computation of LOD or UT1–UTC predictions. In order to evaluate the performance of this approach, two other prediction schemes are also applied: (1) LS extrapolation, (2) combination of LS extrapolation and univariate autoregressive (AR) prediction of LS residuals (LS + AR). The multivariate predictions of AAM χ ₃ data, however, are computed as a combination of the extrapolation of the LS model for annual and semiannual oscillations and the LS + MAR. The AAM χ ₃ predictions are also compared with LS extrapolation and LS + AR prediction. It is shown that the predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC based on LS + MAR taking into account the axial component of AAM are more accurate than the predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC based on LS extrapolation or on LS + AR. In particular, the UT1–UTC predictions based on LS + MAR during El Niño/La Niña events exhibit considerably smaller prediction errors than those calculated by means of LS or LS + AR. The AAM χ ₃ time-series is predicted using LS + MAR with higher accuracy than applying LS extrapolation itself in the case of medium-term predictions (up to 100 days in the future). However, the predictions of AAM χ ₃ reveal the best accuracy for LS + AR.  相似文献   

沿空掘巷合理煤柱宽度综合分析与确定   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

奚家米  毛久海  杨更社  王进锋 《煤田地质与勘探》2008,36(4)

在总结分析经验法、理论计算法、数值模拟法、现场实测等确定煤柱宽度方法优缺点的基础上,提出了采用现场实测和数值模拟相结合的方法来确定保留煤柱宽度。根据石炭井二矿生产实际,分别对巷道开挖前后,不同煤柱宽度下围岩应力、变形进行了模拟,同时利用21053工作面异型煤柱的有利条件,对不同煤柱宽度下巷道围岩变形、支护结构受力等进行了实测。经过对监测数据的分析,得出了巷道围岩变形、支护结构受力与煤柱宽度之间的关系,结合数值模拟结果,确定了石炭井二矿煤柱宽度。  相似文献   

多孔紊动射流的数值模拟与实验研究进展   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

芦绮玲  陈刚 《水科学进展》2008,19(1):137-146

多孔射流作为流体运动的一种重要类型,在工程中具有非常广泛的用途。由于多孔射流各股水流之间的卷吸和掺混的存在,增加了流场的复杂性。长期以来研究人员从理论分析、实验测量和数值模拟方面对多孔紊动射流进行了大量的研究工作,目前已经认识了流场中的许多流动特性和流动机理。从数值模拟和实验研究两个方面,比较分析了国内外多孔紊动射流的研究现状和研究结果,评述了不同湍流模型以及不同实验测量方法对紊动射流的预测能力,讨论了存在的问题并对该领域的研究方向进行了展望。  相似文献   

土壤吸湿-湿过程中水力传导度的拟合研究     

郝鹏  郑西来  田守波  马玉杰  李伟 《地下水》2008,30(3):4-7

非饱和含水介质在吸湿和脱湿的不同过程中,水力传导度随介质含水率的变化规律是不同的。本文选取大沽河流域两种代表性砂土,对其吸湿-脱湿两个过程分别进行试验观测,并使用VanGenuchten—Mualem模型对其吸湿-脱湿过程进行水力传导度的拟合。研究结果表明：砂土在吸湿过程的非饱和水力传导度与脱湿过程的非饱和水力传导度大小并不相同,在含水率相同的情况下,吸湿过程的水力传导度要比脱湿过程大,在含水率较低时（小于15％）相差可达1个数量级。  相似文献