The impact of climate change on U. K. river flows: A preliminary comparison of two generations of probabilistic climate projections     

Alison Lindsey Kay  Glenn Watts  Steven C. Wells  Stuart Allen 《水文研究》2020,34(4):1081-1088

The impacts of climate change on future river flows are a growing concern. Typically, impacts are simulated by driving hydrological models with climate model ensemble data. The U.K. Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) provided probabilistic projections, enabling a risk-based approach to decision-making under climate change. Recently, an update was released—UKCP18—so there is a need for information on how impacts may differ. The probabilistic projections from UKCP18 and UKCP09 are here applied using the change factor method with catchment-based hydrological modelling for 10 catchments across England. Projections of changes in median, mean, high, and low flows are made for the 2050s, using the A1B emissions scenario from UKCP09 and UKCP18 as well as the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios from UCKP18. The results show that, in all catchments for all flow measures, the central estimate of change under UKCP18 is similar to that from UKCP09 (A1B emissions). However, the probabilistic uncertainty ranges from UKCP18 are, in all cases, greater than from UKCP09, despite UKCP18 having a smaller ensemble size than UKCP09. Although there are differences between the central estimates of change using UKCP18 RCP4.5, RCP8.5 and A1B emissions, there is considerable overlap in the uncertainty ranges. The results suggest that existing assessments of hydrological impacts remain relevant, though it will be necessary to evaluate sensitive decisions using the latest projections. The analysis will aid development of advice to users of current guidance based on UKCP09 and help make decisions about the prioritization of further hydrological impacts work using UKCP18, which should also apply other products from UKCP18 like the 12-km regional data.  相似文献   

Factors controlling the temporal variability in dissolved oxygen regime of salmon spawning gravels          下载免费PDF全文

D. A. Sear  I. Pattison  A. L. Collins  M. D. Newson  J. I. Jones  P. S. Naden  P. A. Carling 《水文研究》2014,28(1):86-103

Dissolved oxygen (DO) plays a critical role in the development of the juvenile stages of benthic spawning fish and salmonids in particular. Factors influencing the DO regime within spawning gravels include the accumulation of fine sediment, penetration of groundwater or surface water into the gravels, thermal regime, and the consumption of oxygen by sediment and its associated organic fractions. In this field study, we quantify the DO regime within an artificial salmon redd at high temporal resolution. The environment within the redd is shown to be complex, with large variations in DO. Application of a numerical model (SIDO‐UK) enables for the first time, the quantification of the relative contributions to DO consumption from thermal regime, sediment accumulation and sediment oxygen demand. Sediment accumulation is shown to have a minor impact on DO in the redd whereas upwelling groundwater is identified as the most likely cause of the major changes in DO. Bed mobility has a minor impact on DO regime of the redd. The effects of fine sediment and oxygen supply on salmon embryo survival are estimated. Implications for river catchment management and prospects for future research are discussed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Moments in everyday/distant geopolitics: Young people’s fears and hopes     

Rachel Pain  Ruth Panelli  Sara Kindon  Jo Little 《Geoforum》2010,41(6):972-982

The everyday implications of a volatile geopolitical climate are increasingly recognised, but far less is known about how people’s emotional geographies are affected by geopolitical change. This paper offers a critical examination of how some young people in different parts of the world navigate fears and hopes that might be considered ‘global’ in nature, and those that might be considered ‘everyday’. We report from participatory research conducted with young people from a range of ethnic and cultural backgrounds living in New Zealand and the United Kingdom. We examine how personal fears and hopes intersect with wider anxieties about youth, urban crime and terrorism. The research suggests that global-everyday emotions are not separated out in young people’s analyses. They are critically reflexive about wider discourses of fear, while undertaking the day to day business of navigating what are sometimes challenging emotional topographies.  相似文献   

Time series analysis of long‐term river dissolved organic carbon records     

Fred Worrall  Tim Burt 《水文研究》2004,18(5):893-911

Two long records of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in river water were examined by a detailed time series analysis in order to shed light on the mechanisms generating observed increases in DOC concentrations across the UK. The records date back as far as 1962 and come from catchments 589 and 818 km² in area. The DOC records were compared with others taken simultaneously for flow, pH, alkalinity, air temperature and rainfall, and in one of the catchments also for turbidity and conductivity. All records were examined by the seasonal Kendall test; frequency distributions of daily DOC measurements were examined; annual cycles were calculated, Autoregressive and impulse functions were derived for DOC against flow records. The time series analysis shows that: (i) DOC trends cannot be readily explained by trends in flow, pH, alkalinity, turbidity or conductivity; (ii) there is a significant increase in carbon flux from these catchments; (iii) maximum and minimum components of the annual distribution of daily readings both show increases in DOC, implying that DOC flux is increasing for differing hydrological pathways; (iv) increases in DOC concentrations coincide with increases in temperature, though the biggest increases in temperature are in the winter months when such increases might be expected to have less effect on DOC production; (v) change in trend, and therefore flux, was observed to occur after a severe drought in 1976. The study suggests that there are real, significant increases in carbon loss from upland peat catchments and that climate is a major driver, especially a severe drought. Severe drought triggering changes in the DOC flux might be attributed to enzymic latch mechanisms. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Mineralogical and geochemical signature of mine waste contamination, Tresillian River, Fal Estuary, Cornwall, UK     

D. Pirrie  G. S. Camm  L. G. Sear  S. H. Hughes 《Environmental Geology》1997,29(1-2):58-65

The mineralized district of SW England was one of the world's greatest mining areas, with mining commencing in the Bronze age, peaking in the 1850s to 1890s, but still continuing to the present day. Consequently, it is not surprising that mining has had a major impact on the environmental geochemistry of SW England. In this study, the mineralogical and geochemical signature of mine waste contamination within the Fal Estuary at Tresillian, Cornwall, has been examined. A pulse of mine waste contamination is recognized at approximately 50?cm below present day sediment surface. Sn, As, Cu, Pb, and Zn are all enriched within this contaminated interval with up to 1800 mg?kg^–1 Sn, 290 mg?kg^–1 As, 508 mg?kg^–1 Pb, 2210 mg?kg^–1 Zn, and 1380 mg?kg^–1 Cu. Within this interval, the dominant minerals present include chalcopyrite, arsenopyrite, pyrite, cassiterite, Fe–Ti oxides (ilmenite and ?rutile), wolframite, sphalerite, baryte, zircon, monazite, tourmaline and xenotime. In addition, man-made slag products commonly occur. The exact timing of the release of mine waste into the estuary is poorly constrained, but probably occurred during or immediately following the peak in mining activity in the nearby Camborne-Redruth district, which was between 1853 and 1893. The mine waste may have entered the estuary either via the Tresillian River and its tributaries or via Calenick Creek and the Truro River and/or the Carnon River which flows into Rostronguet Creek.  相似文献   

Pledges,politics and performance: an assessment of UK climate policy     

Beverley Darkin 《Climate Policy》2013,13(3):257-274

Abstract

New Labour came to power in 1997 pledging to put environment concerns at the heart of policy-making. Shortly after being elected, the Labour Government signed the Kyoto Protocol and adopted a voluntary domestic target of a 20% cut in carbon dioxide emissions by 2010. This article looks at the development of UK climate policy since 1997 and the political drivers that have led to development of the climate policy mix. It assesses the Climate Change Programme adopted in 2000 and its delivery, and it also looks at the 5-year Climate Change Programme Review published in March 2006. It conducts a quantitative assessment of the UK's performance by looking at emissions data, and it also provides a qualitative analysis, by looking at the UK policies and measures within their political and institutional context. The article concludes that Labour has been actively promoting climate policy since coming to power and has played a strong leadership role internationally. The UK is on track to meet and surpass its Kyoto target, meeting its international commitments. Between 24.1 and 29.1 million tonnes of carbon savings per year are expected by 2010. Policies and measures in the industrial sector are delivering real emissions reductions, in addition to the reductions made through fuel switching. The Government has found it more difficult to make some of the tough choices necessary to deliver emissions reductions in the transport and the household sectors. The article seeks to explain why the Labour Government has found it uncomfortable, politically, to implement stronger measures in these parts of the economy. The article highlights the changing dynamics within UK politics and concludes that there are two possible avenues for taking more stringent measures in the future. The first involves the development of a cross-party consensus on climate change. The second is to change the way that climate change is framed, so that it is no longer seen as an ‘environment’ issue but one with which voters and decision-makers can immediately connect. Only then will it be possible to implement the necessary policies and measures across the whole economy.  相似文献   

A practitioner's guide to a low-carbon economy: lessons from the UK   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Samuel Fankhauser 《Climate Policy》2013,13(3):345-362

Drawing primarily on the UK experience, five practical lessons are identified for policy makers who seek to decarbonize their economies. First, decarbonization needs a solid legal basis to give it credibility and overcome time inconsistency problems. Second, putting a price on carbon is essential, but low-carbon policies also have to address wider market, investment, and behavioural failures. This in turn raises issues of policy complexity and coordination. Third, the low-carbon economy is likely to be highly electrified. Clean electricity could be a cost-effective way of decarbonizing many parts of the economy, including transport, heating, and parts of industry. Decarbonization therefore starts in the power sector. Fourth, the low-carbon transition is primarily a revolution of production and not consumption. Both supply-side innovation and demand-side adjustments in lifestyle and behaviour are needed, though the former should dominate. Fifth, the transition to a low-carbon economy is economically and technologically feasible. Achieving it is a question of policy competence and having the political will to drive economic and social change.

Policy relevance

Practically all major GHG emitters now have climate change legislation on their statute books. Given what is at stake, and the complexity of the task at hand, it is important that policy makers learn from each other and establish a code of good low-carbon practice. The main lessons from the UK are distilled and presented. Carbon policy is considered for key sectors, such as electricity, buildings, and transport, and possible decarbonization paths are also outlined. It is shown that the transition to a low-carbon economy is economically and technologically feasible. Achieving it is primarily a question of policy competence and political will. This in turn means that climate change action needs a strong legislative basis to give the reforms statutory legitimacy. Low-carbon policies will have to address a wide range of market, investment and behavioural failures. Putting a price on carbon is an essential starting point, but only one of many policy reforms.  相似文献   

Quantifying the UK's incentives for low carbon investment     

《Climate Policy》2013,13(1):77-88

Abstract

The UK climate change programme has introduced a range of instruments to foster investment in low carbon technologies and markets. We estimate the total value of these interventions, in terms of the redirection of financial flows and directly foregone tax income, to be about £1.3 billion per year (c. Euro or US$ 2 billion per year), as from 2002 to 2003 when the renewable obligation certificates (ROCs) first take effect. About 20% of this consists of direct expenditure, the remaining 80% is in the form of indirect expenditures contained within sectors (ROCs, the energy efficiency commitments), and foregone tax revenues. Most of the energy-efficiency investment is estimated to recoup expenditure within normal life-cycles and may thus be considered profitable; the profitability of the supply-side interventions is predicated mostly upon expected cost reductions associated with the build up of the associated industries.  相似文献   

阿伯克隆比与英国早期区域规划     

谢鹏飞 《中国勘察设计》2011,(5):75-78

论文介绍了英国区域规划先行者阿伯克隆比的生平及主要学术思想和实践,对英国早期区域规划"伦敦郡规划"、"大伦敦规划"进行了总结梳理,提出"大伦敦规划"的缺陷,并提出英国新城思想和区域规划理论受到了中国传统哲学思想(风水地理学)的影响。  相似文献   

Exceptional fidelity of preservation in a reworked fossil,Chalk drift,South London,England     

Stephen K. Donovan  Fiona E. Fearnhead 《Geological Journal》2015,50(1):104-106

Reworking of fossils commonly leads to loss of morphological detail and inferior preservation; the main contributions of such specimens to geology are in sedimentology, regional geology and neoichnology. A reworked specimen of the Late Cretaceous (chalk) sponge boring Entobia cretacea Portlock is unusually well preserved. This specimen is from superficial deposits and is well enough preserved that delicate apertural and intercameral canals are apparent. Two factors are recognized as important in maintaining the fine features of this trace fossil: preservation in flint and, presumably, minimal fluvial transport. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献