Specific vulnerability assessment using the<Emphasis Type="Italic"> MLPI</Emphasis> model in Datong city,Shanxi province,China     

Huaming?GuoEmail author  Yanxin?Wang 《Environmental Geology》2004,45(3):401-407

This study outlines an improved method, MLPI (modified leaching potential index) model, for delineating and mapping groundwater vulnerability and assessing groundwater vulnerability to contaminants, including degradable contaminants, radioactive elements and nondegradable pollutants. The primary objective is to produce specific sensitivity maps at city or county scale that can be used for recognition of aquifer sensitivity and for protection of groundwater quality. Groundwater vulnerability assessment using the MLPI method is applied to Datong city, Shanxi Province, with the following conclusions: (1) specific vulnerability was differentiated and ; (2) groundwater vulnerability is of temporal variation.  相似文献   

全球变暖、长江水灾与可能损失   总被引：45，自引：3，他引：42  

姜彤  施雅风 《地球科学进展》2003,18(2):277-284

全球大幅度变暖,使得水循环加快,蒸发和降水增强。长江中下游地区在20世纪90年代已呈现出明显增温趋势,达到 0．2～0．8℃,最大增温区域在长江三角洲地区。降水在长江流域中下游地区增加明显,增加值为5％～20％。20世纪90年代是继50年代后,长江流域性洪水灾害高发的10年。长江流域是我国经济发展的核心地区,对长江流域725个县洪水灾害脆弱性分析结果表明,近 1／3的地区是洪水灾害高脆弱性地区。按照1998年社会经济状况,若遭遇1954年型、1991年型、1996年型和1998年型的洪水时,洪水灾害造成的可能损失分别为589、55、70和196亿美元。气候模拟预测表明,21世纪长江流域地区的增温可能达到 2．7℃,导致降水可能增加 10％,径流可能增加37％。在全球变暖的趋势,以及区域社会经济可持续发展造成不透水面积增大和单位经济价值升高的共同影响下,长江流域发生相当于1870年、1954年和1998的千年、百年和20年一遇洪水的可能性增大,甚至可能发生超过上述频率的特大洪水。  相似文献   

城市洪涝易损性分类与诊断研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

朱聪  秦蓓蕾  王文圣  丁晶 《云南地理环境研究》2005,17(2):15-18

城市洪涝易损性分析对城市防洪安全具有极其重要的作用。将基于加速遗传算法的投影寻踪模型应用于城市洪涝易损性分类与诊断。运用建议模型探讨了湖南省29个城市的洪涝易损性,将全省洪涝易损性程度划分为5个等级:低度易损性、较低度易损性、中度易损性、较高度易损性、高度易损性,同时与模糊评价结果进行了对比。研究表明,投影寻踪模型客观考虑了各个影响因子的权重,结果合理、可靠,可以在实际的类似问题中应用。  相似文献   

Taking the uncertainty in climate-change vulnerability assessment seriously     

Anthony Patt  Richard J.T. Klein  Anne de la Vega-Leinert 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2005,337(4):411-424

Climate-change vulnerability assessment has become a frequently employed tool, with the purpose of informing policy-makers attempting to adapt to global change conditions. However, we suggest that there are three reasons to suspect that vulnerability assessment often promises more certainty, and more useful results, than it can deliver. First, the complexity of the system it purports to describe is greater than that described by other types of assessment. Second, it is difficult, if not impossible, to obtain data to test proposed interactions between different vulnerability drivers. Third, the time scale of analysis is too long to be able to make robust projections about future adaptive capacity. We analyze the results from a stakeholder workshop in a European vulnerability assessment, and find evidence to support these arguments. To cite this article: A. Patt et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).  相似文献   

A statistical approach to landslide risk modelling at basin scale: from landslide susceptibility to quantitative risk assessment     

J. Remondo  J. Bonachea  A. Cendrero 《Landslides》2005,2(4):321-328

A procedure for landslide risk assessment is presented. The underlying hypothesis is that statistical relationships between past landslide occurrences and conditioning variables can be used to develop landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk models. The latter require also data on past damages. Landslides occurred during the last 50 years and subsequent damages were analysed. Landslide susceptibility models were obtained by means of Spatial Data Analysis techniques and independently validated. Scenarios defined on the basis of past landslide frequency and magnitude were used to transform susceptibility into quantitative hazard models. To assess vulnerability, a detailed inventory of exposed elements (infrastructures, buildings, land resources) was carried out. Vulnerability values (0–1) were obtained by comparing damages experienced in the past by each type of element with its actual value. Quantitative risk models, with a monetary meaning, were obtained for each element by integrating landslide hazard and vulnerability models. Landslide risk models showing the expected losses for the next 50 years were thus obtained for the different scenarios. Risk values obtained are not precise predictions of future losses but rather a means to identify areas where damages are likely to be greater and require priority for mitigation actions.  相似文献   

A hybrid method for the vulnerability assessment of R/C and URM buildings   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：6  

Andreas J. Kappos  Georgios Panagopoulos  Christos Panagiotopoulos  Gregorios Penelis 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2006,4(4):391-413

The methodology followed by the Aristotle University (AUTh) team for the vulnerability assessment of reinforced concrete (R/C) and unreinforced masonry (URM) structures is presented. The paper focuses on the derivation of vulnerability (fragility) curves in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA), as well as spectral displacement (s _d), and also includes the estimation of capacity curves, for several R/C and URM building types. The vulnerability assessment methodology is based on the hybrid approach developed at AUTh, which combines statistical data with appropriately processed (utilising repair cost models) results from nonlinear dynamic or static analyses, that permit extrapolation of statistical data to PGA’s and/or spectral displacements for which no data are available. The statistical data used herein are from earthquake-damaged greek buildings. An extensive numerical study is carried out, wherein a large number of building types (representing most of the common typologies in S. Europe) are modelled and analysed. Vulnerability curves for several damage states are then derived using the aforementioned hybrid approach. These curves are subsequently used in combination with the mean spectrum of the Microzonation study of Thessaloniki as the basis for the derivation of new vulnerability curves involving spectral quantities. Pushover curves are derived for all building types, then reduced to standard capacity curves, and can easily be used together with the S _d fragility curves as an alternative for developing seismic risk scenarios.  相似文献   

Macroseismic and mechanical models for the vulnerability and damage assessment of current buildings   总被引：5，自引：3，他引：5  

Sergio Lagomarsino  Sonia Giovinazzi 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2006,4(4):415-443

The European Commission funded the RISK-UE project in 1999 with the aim of providing an advanced approach to earthquake risk scenarios for European towns and regions. In the framework of Risk-UE project, two methods were proposed, originally derived and calibrated by the authors, for the vulnerability assessment of current buildings and for the evaluation of earthquake risk scenarios: a macroseismic model, to be used with macroseismic intensity hazard maps, and a mechanical based model, to be applied when the hazard is provided in terms of peak ground accelerations and spectral values. The vulnerability of the buildings is defined by vulnerability curves, within the macroseismic method, and in terms of capacity curves, within the mechanical method. In this paper, the development of both vulnerability and capacity curves is presented with reference to an assumed typological classification system; moreover, their cross-validation is presented. The parameters of the two methods and the steps for their operative implementation are provided in the paper.  相似文献   

A method for assessing regional debris flow risk: an application in Zhaotong of Yunnan province (SW China)   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

Xilin Liu  Junzhong Lei 《Geomorphology》2003,52(3-4):181-191

Based on the definitions of the United Nations, the assessment of risk involves the evaluation of both hazard and vulnerability. This forms the basis of a generalized assessment model of debris flow risk. Hazard is a measure of the threatening degree of an extreme event and is expressed theoretically as a function of event magnitude and frequency of occurrence. Mathematically, it is the definite integral area under the magnitude–frequency curve. Based on the need for a model applicable in regions that lack data, a new method that incorporates theoretical concepts with empirical analysis is presented to calculate the regional hazardousness of debris flows. Debris flow hazard can be estimated from gully density, mean annual rainfall and percentage of cultivated land on steep slope. Vulnerability is defined as the potential total maximum losses due to a potential damaging phenomenon for a specified area and during a reference period. On a regional scale, it is dependent on the fixed assets, gross domestic product, land resources and population density, as well as age, education and wealth of the inhabitants. A nonlinear, power-function model to compute the vulnerability degree is presented. An application of the proposed method to Zhaotong prefecture of Yunnan province, SW China, provides high accuracy and reasonable risk estimates. The highest risk of debris flow is in Zhaotong county with a value of 0.48; the lowest risk of debris flow is in Yanjin county with a value of 0.16. The other counties have debris flow risks ranging from 0.22 to 0.46. This provides an approach for assessing the regional debris flow risk and a basis for the formulation of a regional risk management policy in Zhaotong prefecture.  相似文献   

The household economy of pastoralists and wage-labourers in the Richtersveld, South Africa   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  

S. Berzborn   《Journal of Arid Environments》2007,70(4):672

The Richtersveld is situated in an arid environment and its inhabitants are confronted with various hazards. Based on data collected during 22 months of ethnographic fieldwork, the livelihood strategies of Richtersvelders are explored. Besides a thorough examination of the diversified economy, the internal institutional arrangements for pooling and redistributing resources within households are analysed in this paper. Encouraging household members to engage in different activities and to share their income—as well as skills to manage the household budget properly—are integral to diversification and reducing the vulnerability of households. This study has shown that even in a community marked by considerable dependence on wage labour, almost three-quarters of the households are directly involved in stock farming. Although pastoralism still plays an important role for households, it has shifted from being the core economic activity to being an insurance against unemployment and contributing to subsistence. Stock farming serves to build up resilience through the diversification of economic activities inside the household. In the South African context, the relevance of activities dependent on land has implications not only for rural development, but also for post-apartheid land and agrarian reform.  相似文献   

Megacities – megarisks     

Friedemann Wenzel  Fouad Bendimerad  Ravi Sinha 《Natural Hazards》2007,42(3):481-491

We review the definitions, population trends, and characteristics of megacities. Characteristics of megacities are, apart from their size, their complexity in terms of administration, infrastructure, traffic, etc., and at the same time the speed of change. Vulnerabilities and risk potential are discussed using the examples of Mexico City and Mumbai. We present the experience accumulated in the 6 years work of the Earthquakes and Megacities Initiative (EMI, ) with more than 20 large cities around the world, mostly located in the developing world. On this background we analyze obstacles that keep megacities from developing an efficient approach towards disaster mitigation and define a strategy that might overcome these problems. The key element of this strategy is the development of a Disaster Risk Management Master Plan (DRMMP) for cities. Currently the Istanbul Earthquake Master Plan (IEMP) serves as best example for an appropriate strategy for disaster reduction in megacities.  相似文献