昼夜垂直移动对黄海中南部小黄鱼可捕系数的影响   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

关丽莎  单秀娟  金显仕  陈云龙  杨涛  吴强 《海洋学报》2018,40(2):53-60

鱼类的昼夜垂直移动是影响渔业资源调查可捕系数的重要因素之一，对调查获得的各种渔获物资源量指数（abundance index，AI）进行校正，对优化估计物种的空间分布和资源量估算有重要作用。本文以黄海中南部小黄鱼为例，利用2006-2009年和2011年黄海秋季底拖网渔业资源调查数据，应用地理统计二阶广义线性混合模型，量化了昼夜时段对黄海中南部小黄鱼AI的影响。不同昼夜时段对AI的随机效应系数表明，在黄海中南部秋季渔业资源调查中，底拖网对小黄鱼的可捕系数存在明显的昼夜变化:在午夜23点到凌晨3点间，可捕系数最低；凌晨3点后，可捕系数逐渐增大，直至9点达到峰值；在中午10点至下午16点，可捕系数小幅度降低后保持相对稳定，随后急剧下降；傍晚19点以后，可捕系数处于相对较低水平，直至午夜23点后降至最低水平。本研究通过地理统计二阶广义线性混合模型，去除了昼夜垂直移动对小黄鱼可捕系数的影响，预测的小黄鱼空间密度分布与其AI实际观测值以及渔场空间格局基本一致。另外，模型估计的2006-2009年和2011年秋季黄海中南部小黄鱼的总资源量指数相对扫海面积法的估计值精确度更高，且其变动趋势与黄海中南部沿岸两省（山东和江苏）小黄鱼次年总渔获量的变动情况一致。  相似文献   

The need for operational reasoning in data‐driven rating curve prediction of suspended sediment     

Nick J. Mount  Robert J. Abrahart  Christian W. Dawson  Ngahzaifa Ab Ghani 《水文研究》2012,26(26):3982-4000

The use of data‐driven modelling techniques to deliver improved suspended sediment rating curves has received considerable interest in recent years. Studies indicate an increased level of performance over traditional approaches when such techniques are adopted. However, closer scrutiny reveals that, unlike their traditional counterparts, data‐driven solutions commonly include lagged sediment data as model inputs, and this seriously limits their operational application. In this paper, we argue the need for a greater degree of operational reasoning underpinning data‐driven rating curve solutions and demonstrate how incorrect conclusions about the performance of a data‐driven modelling technique can be reached when the model solution is based upon operationally invalid input combinations. We exemplify the problem through the re‐analysis and augmentation of a recent and typical published study, which uses gene expression programming to model the rating curve. We compare and contrast the previously published solutions, whose inputs negate their operational application, with a range of newly developed and directly comparable traditional and data‐driven solutions, which do have operational value. Results clearly demonstrate that the performance benefits of the published gene expression programming solutions are dependent on the inclusion of operationally limiting, lagged data inputs. Indeed, when operationally inapplicable input combinations are discounted from the models and the analysis is repeated, gene expression programming fails to perform as well as many simpler, more standard multiple linear regression, piecewise linear regression and neural network counterparts. The potential for overstatement of the benefits of the data‐driven paradigm in rating curve studies is thus highlighted. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Real-time flood forecasting with the use of inadequate data     

IOANNIS NALBANTIS 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2):269-284

Abstract

A modelling scheme is developed for real-time flood forecasting. It is composed of (a) a rainfall forecasting model, (b) a conceptual rainfall-runoff model, and (c) a stochastic error model of the ARMA family for forecast error correction. Initialization of the rainfall-runoff model is based on running this model on a daily basis for a certain period prior to the flood onset while parameters of the error model are updated through the Recursive Least Squares algorithm. The scheme is suitable for the early stages of operation of flood forecasting systems in the presence of inadequate historical data. A validation framework is set up which simulates real-time flood forecasting conditions. Thus, the effects of the procedures for rainfall-runoff model initialization, forecast error correction and rainfall forecasting are assessed. Two well-known conceptual rainfall-runoff models (the Soil Moisture Accounting model of the US National Weather Service River Forecast Service—SMA-NWSRFS and TANK) together with data from a Greek basin are used for illustration purposes.  相似文献   

青岛近海秋季大型底栖动物群落特征   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

王宗兴  范士亮  徐勤增  王守强  韦钦胜  臧家业 《海洋湖沼通报》2010,(1)

利用2007年10月在青岛近海进行的大型底栖动物定量采集样品,采用大型多元统计分析软件PRIMER,研究了该海域大型底栖动物群落的物种组成、生物量和丰度分布、群落等级聚类分析(CLUSTER)以及群落受污染扰动情况。本次调查共获得青岛近海大型底栖动物160种,其中多毛类93种,甲壳动物37种,软体动物16种,棘皮动物7种,其它类群动物7种。群落中优势种的优势度均不明显,以多毛类巴氏钩毛虫(Sigambra bassi)和长须沙蚕(Nereis longior)贡献率最高。生物量和丰度空间分布没有明显的规律性,呈斑块状分布。群落结构聚类分析表明,15个取样站的群落结构相似性程度都非常低,为10%~30%,仅有S2和S4站、S11和S12站Bray-Curtis相似性系数达到30%。ABC曲线表明,该研究海域处于1个轻度人为扰动的状态。  相似文献   

玉兔号月球车巡视点矿物丰度及粒径分布高光谱反演     

林红磊  张霞  杨亚洲  郭弟均  吴兴  戚文超 《遥感学报》2019,23(5):831-840

矿物的类型、丰度及其粒径分布对理解月球和行星表面曾经存在过怎样的地质演化过程具有重要的意义。本文提出基于辐射传输模型和稀疏分解模型反演矿物丰度及其粒径分布的方法,利用辐射传输模型计算各矿物端元不同粒径的单次散射反照率以构建解混光谱库,然后基于稀疏分解算法得到在每个可观测像元的端元最优丰度和粒径分布。利用实验室测量数据进行验证,表明本文方法具有较高的精度。最后根据玉兔号月球车的实地测量光谱数据,利用本文方法获得了其矿物的丰度及粒径分布,结果显示,辉石、橄榄石、斜长石、熔融玻璃和钛铁矿的丰度在4个观测点的平均丰度分别为28.1%、4.5%、39%、28%、0.4%,辉石的平均粒径为166.02μm,橄榄石为8.34μm,斜长石为196.31μm,熔融玻璃为44.21μm,一定程度上表明在这些观测点不同矿物对太空风化的响应不同。  相似文献   

A multimodel assessment of the climate change effect on the drought severity–duration–frequency relationship     

Joo Heon Lee  Chang Joo Kim 《水文研究》2013,27(19):2800-2813

In this study, the patterns of past and future drought occurrences in the Seoul region were analysed using observed historical data from the Seoul weather station located in the Korean Peninsula and four different types of general circulation models (GCMs), namely, GFDL:CM2_1, CONS:ECHO‐G, MRI:CGCM2_3_2 and UKMO:HADGEM1. To analyse statistical properties such as drought frequency duration and return period, the Standardized Precipitation Index was used to derive the severity–duration–frequency (SDF) curve from the drought frequency analysis. In addition, a drought spell analysis was conducted to estimate the frequency and change of drought duration for each drought classification. The results of the analysis suggested a decrease in the frequency of mild droughts and an increase in the frequency of severe and extreme droughts in the future. Furthermore, the average duration of droughts is expected to increase. A comparison of the SDF relationship derived from the observed data with that derived via the GCMs indicated that the drought severity for each return period was reduced as drought duration increased and that the drought severity derived from the GCMs was severer than the severity obtained using the observed data for the same duration and return period. Furthermore, among the four types of GCMs used in this study, the MRI model predicted the most severe future drought for the Seoul region, and the SDF curve derived using the MRI model also resulted in the highest degree of drought severity compared with the other GCMs. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

ABUNDANCE AND PRODUCTION OF BRANCHIURA SOWERBYI (OLIGOCHAETA: TUBIFICIDAE) IN TWO TYPICAL SHALLOW LAKES (HUBEI, CHINA)   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

阎云君  王洪铸 《中国海洋湖沼学报》1999,(1)

ＩＮＴＲＯＤＵＣＴＩＯＮＢｒａｎｃｈｉｕｒａｓｏｗｅｒｂｙｉ,ａｃｏｓｍｏｐｏｌｉｔａｎｔｕｂｉｆｉｃｉｄ,ｉｓａｐｒｅｄｏｍｉｎａｎｔｚｏｏｂｅｎｔｈｏｓｉｎｍａｎｙｓｈａｌｌｏｗｌａｋｅｓｉｎＣｈｉｎａ(Ｌｉａｎｇ,1979).Ｉｎ1984,ｔｈｅｐｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎｒａｔｅｓｏｆｔｈｅｓｐｅｃｉｅｓｗｅｒｅｆｉｒｓｔｅｓｔｉｍａｔｅｄｉｎＤｏｎｇｈｕＬａｋｅ,Ｗｕｈａｎ(Ｌｉａｎｇ,1984).Ａｆｔｅｒｔｈａｔ,ｎｏｄａｔａｏｎｐｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎｏｆｔｈｉｓｗｏｒｍｏｒｏｔｈｅｒｚｏｏｂｅｎｔｈｏｓｗｅｒｅｐ…  相似文献   

全球变暖对海洋浮游动物的影响     

张达娟  李少菁  郭东晖 《海洋通报(英文版)》2010,12(2):15-25

全球变暖作为一个重要的环境问题，自上世纪80年代初就已引起学者的广泛关注。它不仅对海洋生态环境及生物圈已产生了一定的影响。本文主要从浮游动物角度出发综述了全球变暖对其生理活动、生态分布及生物气候学的影响。运用不同温度条件下浮游动物生理学上的变化来说明全球变暖对浮游动物的生理影响；通过分析浮游动物生物多样性、生物量，丰度和生物地理分布等指标来阐述其对全球变暖的生态响应；通过讨论浮游动物的最高丰度时间和繁殖时间这2个重要物候学指标来说明其对全球变暖的响应。最后，提出了今后的研究方向，即调查更广泛的生物功能群、关注处于热带海洋中的浮游动物以及在浮游动物个体水平上开展研究工作。  相似文献   

参数方程法确定线路放样中边桩坐标          下载免费PDF全文

刘卉卉  覃辉  赵福君 《海洋测绘》2008,28(2):44-47

给出了线路放样过程中确定中边桩坐标的新方法。根据曲线模型，找出线路控制坐标系与局部坐标系坐标之间的参数方程关系，推出了缓和曲线及圆曲线中、边桩坐标的参数方程，代入已知量求得参数的值，且给出了求解步骤。该方法思路清晰，具有一次转换计算就可以实现获取线路中边桩测量坐标的优点，便于工程应用。  相似文献   

Prevalence, abundance, and distribution of Lepeoptheirus salmonis (Kroyer, 1837) and Caligus elongatus (Nordmann, 1832) on wild sea trout Salmo trutta L.     

Urquhart  K.; Pert  C. C.; Kilburn  R.; Fryer  R. J.; Bricknell  I. R. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2008,65(2):171-173

  相似文献