Shift trend and step changes for runoff time series in the Shiyang River basin,northwest China     

Z. L. Li  Z. X. Xu  J. Y. Li  Z. J. Li 《水文研究》2008,22(23):4639-4646

Shift trend and step changes were detected for runoff time series in the Shiyang River basin, one of the inland river basins in north‐west China. Annual runoff data from eight tributaries as well as both annual and monthly runoff from the mainstream from 1958 to 2003 were used. Seven statistical test methods were employed to identify the shift trends and step changes in the study. Mann–Kendall test, Spearman's Rho test, linear regression and Hurst exponent were used to detect past and future shift trends for runoff time series, while the distributed‐free CUSUM test, cumulative deviations and the Worsley likelihood ratio test were used to detect step changes for the same time series. Results showed that the annual runoff from Zamu, Huangyang and Gulang rivers, as well as both annual and monthly runoff from the mainstream, show statistically significant decreasing trends. Future tendency of runoff for both tributaries and mainstream were consistent with that from 1958 to 2003. Step changes probably occurred in 1961 for the runoff from Huangyang, Gulang and Dajing rivers according to the Worsley likelihood ratio test, but no similar results were found using the other two test methods. Three change points (1979, 1974 and 1973) were detected for the mainstream using different methods. These change points were close to the years that reservoirs started to be operated. Both climate change and human activities, especially the latter, contributed to the decreasing runoff in the study area. Between 21% and 79% of the reduction in runoff from the mainstream was due to the impact of human activities during the past few decades. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Understanding marine ecosystem based management: A literature review     

Richard Curtin  Raúl Prellezo 《Marine Policy》2010

Ecosystem based management takes into account the interconnectedness and interdependent nature of ecosystem components and emphasizes the importance of ecosystem structures and functions which provide a range of services. The concept has now been adopted by many international agreements and national governments and is in the process of being implemented. This paper seeks to review the literature and to analyze the understanding of the subject. The term is defined and its implementation in fisheries and for all marine uses is analyzed. It has been concluded that to understand marine ecosystem based management one must consider ecosystems as complex adaptive systems which can show changes at higher levels from actions and processes occurring at lower levels. Recognizing that humans are part of these complex adaptive systems is vital in that their actions along with other processes can lead to transformations in ecosystem functioning. This recognition is also important to show how society can sustainably exploit these resources and that the inclusion of all stakeholders in the management process is necessary to legitimize the process. The uses of the precautionary principle along with adaptive management are seen to be useful tools in implementing these insights into the management of natural resources. Finally, the need for reducing consumption of fish is considered.  相似文献   

Model of optical turbulence profile at Cerro Pachón     

A. Tokovinin  T. Travouillon 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,365(4):1235-1242

New measurements of optical turbulence profile at the Cerro Pachón observatory in Chile are analysed jointly with previously published data to model the variations of the intensity and thickness of the ground layer and free atmosphere under a variety of observing conditions. This work is motivated by the need to predict statistically the performance of ground-layer adaptice optics. We find that the ground-layer profile can be represented by a decaying exponent with a scale height of 20–40 m, increasing to 100 m under bad conditions. The zone from 6 to 500 m contributes typically about 61 per cent to the total integral, the latter causing a median seeing of 0.77 arcsec. Turbulence integrals in the ground layer and in free atmosphere vary independently of each other, in 50 per cent of cases they deviate by less than 1.8 times from their respective median values. The existence of periods with low turbulence in the free atmosphere and their importance for adaptive optics is stressed.  相似文献   

Phasing segmented mirrors using defocused images at visible wavelengths     

A. Schumacher  N. Devaney 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,366(2):537-546

Plans for future optical telescopes of diameter more than 10 m are based on segmented mirrors, made up of hundreds or even thousands of segments. A challenge for these telescopes is the alignment in piston (cophasing) where phase differences between individual segments have to be reduced to a small fraction of the observing wavelength in order to avoid degradation of image quality.
Based on the phase discontinuity sensing method used at the Keck telescopes to measure small piston errors using infrared wavelengths, we develop a new method that allows fast high-precision measurements of large piston errors even at visible wavelengths.  相似文献   

具有不同到达率的带有启动时间及不耐烦策略的多级适应性休假M^X/G/1排队     

王莉  朱翼隽 《成都信息工程学院学报》2008,23(6):704-710

研究了具有不同到达率的带有启动时间及不耐烦策略的多级适应性休假M^X/G/1排队模型,通过嵌入马尔可夫链方法推导出稳态队长的母函数、等待时间的LST（先到先服务规则）,并验证了稳态队长和稳态等待时间具有随机分解性,而且给出了忙期、全忙期及在线期均值。  相似文献   

山西省地下流体观测井地下水类型综合判定     

姚林鹏  吕芳  宫静芝 《地震地磁观测与研究》2022,43(2):115-120

为提升对山西省地下流体观测井承压性的进一步认识,以位于该省北、中、南部的朔州井、静乐井、祁县井、洪洞井和东郭井为研究对象,选取水位、气压观测数据,并利用井水位的理论固体潮数据,分别对井水位进行气压的阶跃响应函数计算、FFT频谱和潮汐相位响应分析,综合判定地下流体观测井—含水层类型,结果表明,5口观测井地下水埋藏类型均为半承压水。  相似文献   

场地韧性的概念及有关问题的讨论          下载免费PDF全文

薄景山    张毅毅  薄涛  王玉婷    赵鑫龙  陈亚男 《世界地震工程》2022,38(3):001-9

在韧性城市和建筑抗震韧性等级评价中,需要对场地的韧性给出评价。场地韧性是一个新概念,场地韧性的概念和场地韧性等级评价在学术界还是空白。因此,对场地韧性的概念及有关问题开展讨论,对韧性城市和建筑抗震韧性评价具有重要的理论意义和工程应用价值。本文在分析韧性和场地概念的基础上,讨论了场地的稳定性和抗干扰问题;基于HOLLING建立的适应性循环理论,论述了建立场地韧性概念的理论基础;首次提出了场地韧性概念并解释了其内涵;考虑韧性城市和建筑抗震韧性评价的需求,初步讨论了与场地韧性等级评价有关的问题,提出了建立场地韧性等级评价指标体系的初步设想;建议了场地韧性等级评价的数学方法,为实现场地韧性等级评价提供了途径和方法。本文研究成果对从事韧性城市和建筑抗震韧性研究的科技工作者有一定的参考价值。  相似文献   

京津冀协同发展区地应力监测孔钻探施工技术          下载免费PDF全文

张建杰  李海明 《探矿工程》2022,49(6):48-53

地应力监测孔作为地应力测量与监测的基础场所,钻探施工的质量直接影响到地应力测量试验的效果,扩孔的质量更是决定地应力监测仪器能否顺利安装以及后期监测仪器能否正常工作的关键因素。本文以京津冀协同发展区地应力监测孔钻探施工为例,详细介绍了地应力监测孔的施工工艺,包括取心钻具组合、金刚石钻头选择、组装式扩孔钻头分级扩孔钻进等,对保证钻孔垂直度和同心度、降低钻孔孔径误差、保证岩心采取率,以及提高监测孔扩孔效率和质量等关键技术提出了一些具体措施,并取得了良好的钻探效果,对今后地应力监测孔的钻探施工具有重要的指导作用。  相似文献   

大定源瞬变电磁一维自适应正则化反演   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

徐玉聪 《地质与勘探》2015,51(2):360-365

自适应正则化反演对初始模型要求较低,直接对瞬变电磁响应数据进行反演。正则化因子通过计算每次迭代的数据目标函数和模型目标函数自适应的得到,从而快速获得地下的地电结构。本文采用自适应正则化反演算法对大定源回线瞬变电磁一维层状模型进行反演,使用均匀半空间作为初始模型,首次采用模型对深度的二阶导数极小的模型约束,通过典型理论模型的反演计算,证明了TEM自适应正则化一维反演算法拟合效果好、精度高,由于不用反复搜索正则化因子,并且收敛速度快,体现了良好的稳定性和可靠性。  相似文献   

人工阶梯-深潭破坏案例与稳定性分析          下载免费PDF全文

李志威  王兆印  张晨笛  余国安  张康  漆力健 《水科学进展》2015,26(6):820-828

通过2006—2010年4个修建人工阶梯-深潭系统的治理山区河流案例,总结其治理效果和最终破坏原因.以单个阶梯为分析对象,给出其受力表达式,建立单个阶梯-深潭的简化稳定性模型,进而分析来流量和冲刷角变化对其稳定性的影响.单个阶梯的稳定性取决于关键石块粒径、河道坡降、流量和冲刷角.洪水期的洪峰流量和阶梯下游冲刷是阶梯破坏的主要原因,上游来流量增加和冲刷角越大,阶梯越易发生破坏.人工阶梯-深潭系统在洪水期的稳定性是其发挥长期治理效果的关键.  相似文献