Developing land use scenario dynamics model by the integration of system dynamics model and cellular automata model   总被引：8，自引：1，他引：8  

HE Chunyang  SHI Peijun  CHEN Jin  Li Xiaobing  PAN Yaozhong  LI Jing  LI Yuechen & LI Jinggang Key Laboratory of Environmental Change  Natural Disaster  Ministry of Education of China  Beijing Normal University  College of Resources Science & Technology  Beijing Normal University  Beijing  China 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2005,48(11):1979-1989

Models of land use change are useful tools for un-derstanding the analysis of the cause and conse-quences of land use changes, assessing the impacts of land use system on ecological system and supporting land use planning and policy[1,2]. Modeling land use scenario changes and its potential impacts on the structure and function of the ecosystem in the typical regions are regarded as one of the good ways to un-derstand the interactive mechanism between land use system and ecological system[3―10…  相似文献   

A method to estimate the longshore sediment transport at ebb-tidal deltas based on their volumetric growth: Application to the Guadiana (Spain–Portugal border)     

Erwan Garel  Alejandro López-Ruiz  Óscar Ferreira 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2019,44(13):2557-2569

Current techniques assessing longshore sediment transport rates have large uncertainties, pleading for the development of alternative and complementary approaches. The present study proposes a method to estimate the decadal average rate of longshore transport at modern ebb-tidal deltas based on a sediment budget analysis of the outer shoal growth. This transport is obtained as the balance of the other contributions to the shoal with the total sediment input rate obtained from an inverse application of the inlet reservoir model. The method is applied to the Guadiana ebb-tidal delta, yielding an average longshore sediment transport rate (~85 000 m3 year⁻¹) in good agreement with expectations for the region. It is exemplified that this decadal averaged rate can be used to improve longshore sediment transport expressions in order to study its variability over shorter time scales. At the Guadiana, the yearly longshore sediment transport from the improved formula ranges from ~25 000 m³ (westward) to ~245 000 m³ (eastward) and is related to the North Atlantic Oscillation index. Overall, the proposed method constitutes an alternative tool to constrain the average longshore sediment transport rate over decades in the vicinity of tidal inlets. It is applicable to ebb-tidal deltas where the outer shoal growth (from an early to a mature stage) is well documented by bathymetric maps, and where the main transport pathways towards the outer shoal can be specified. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

细胞自动机用于地震偏移:数值模拟试验   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

刘劲松  许云  乌达巴拉  刘福田  郝天珧 《地球物理学进展》2004,19(3):621-624

利用细胞自动机模型进行了地震偏移处理的尝试．采用格子Boltzmann模型和三角形网格,以向下两个方向的粒子代表下行波,根据归一化的地震记录计算粒子数密度,在相应的时刻在代表地表的网格点上设定粒子数密度,以下行粒子在网格中的演化模拟波场延拓过程．粒子系统演化结束时即得到偏移后的波场图象．本文对一个常速介质理论模型进行了偏移处理,得到了满意的结果。  相似文献   

格型钢板桩结构有限元数值分析   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

王元战  焉振  王禹迟 《岩土力学》2013,34(4):1163-1170

以有限元软件ABAQUS作为分析平台,建立波浪荷载作用下格型钢板桩结构稳定性及应力分析的三维弹塑性有限元分析模型。格型钢板桩采用壳体单元模拟,在相邻板桩之间设置铰接连接器模拟板桩之间的相对转动;土体采用Mohr-Coulomb本构模型模拟,在格型钢板桩与其内、外土体之间设置接触面单元模拟它们之间的滑移、张裂和闭合。结合某实际工程,研究结构的破坏模式、失稳特性和应力分布特性,分析参数变化对结构稳定性和环向拉力的影响,并对格内土体的剪切变形进行分析,建议格型钢板桩锁口拉力的验算断面。结果表明,铰接连接器的设置对于结构稳定性影响不大,但对环向拉力有一定影响;格内土体的剪切变形主要发生在格体中轴处,符合太沙基法结论。  相似文献   

基于局部化转换规则的元胞自动机土地利用模型   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

宇林军  孙丹峰  彭仲仁  李红 《地理研究》2013,32(4):671-682

传统土地利用元胞自动机(Cellular automata,CA)模型基于空间同质性假设,使用全局性模型建立元胞转换规则,忽略了土地利用变化驱动因素的驱动作用在空间上的变化。以美国佛罗里达州的橙县(Orange County)2003-2009年土地利用变化为例,提出了基于局部化转化规则的CA土地利用模型,其中元胞的土地利用类型适宜性由地理加权多项logit模型(Geographically weighted multinomial logit,GWML)获得。结果表明:GWML模型较传统全局性多项logit(Multinomial logit,MNL)模型有更高的数据解释能力。基于GWML模型的土地利用CA模型能反映局部土地利用变化模式,因而较基于MNL模型的CA模型具有更高的模拟精度。所得结论对未来国内地区的研究有借鉴意义。  相似文献   

Modelling urban expansion using a multi agentbased model in the city of Changsha     

ZHANG Honghui  ZENG Yongnian  BIAN Ling  YU Xijun 《地理学报》2010,20(4):540-556

Although traditional urban expansion simulation models can simulate dynamic features, these models fail to address complex changes produced by different agents' behaviors. The paper has built up a set of spatial-temporal land resource allocation rules and developed a dynamic urban expansion model based on a multi-agent system, which can simulate the interaction among different agents, such as residents, peasants, and governments. This model is applied to simulate urban expansion process taking Changsha City, in China as a study area. The results show that this model can not only reflect basic characteristics of urban expansion, but also help explain the reasons for urban expansion process and understand the effect of agents' behavior on the expansion process, and provide insights into the causing factors behind the expansion. In addition, in contrast to simulation results with land use classification map from remote sensing images, the precision of the simulation reached over 68% with higher precision than cellular automata model according to the cell-by-cell comparison. The results suggest that the model can help to provide land use decision making support to government and urban planners.  相似文献   

基于多智能体的城市人口分布动态模拟与预测   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

肖洪  田怀玉  朱佩娟  于桓凯 《地理科学进展》2010,29(3):347-354

城市人口分布变化过程是复杂的动态系统,掌握其规律在城市规划和社会可持续发展中有重要意义。用相互作用的多智能体系统(MAS)、元胞自动机(CA)环境及城市人口密度模型构建精确到街道的城市人口分布模型,并以长沙为例,分析城市人口分布的演变过程,为相关的调控提供决策依据。研究结果表明,其模拟的城市人口分布格局与实际情况吻合较好,在多种因素的影响下,长沙市将形成“市中心人口快速增长,近郊区人口缓慢增长,沿湘江畔、沿五一大道及岳麓区高新技术开发区人口密集”的发展格局。与以往的模型进行相比,所获得的模拟结果精度更高,更接近于实际的空间分布格局。  相似文献   

A general-purpose parallel raster processing programming library test application using a geographic cellular automata model     

Qingfeng Guan  Keith C. Clarke 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(5):695-722

A general-purpose parallel raster processing programming library (pRPL) was developed and applied to speed up a commonly used cellular automaton model with known tractability limitations. The library is suitable for use by geographic information scientists with basic programming skills, but who lack knowledge and experience of parallel computing and programming. pRPL is a general-purpose programming library that provides generic support for raster processing, including local-scope, neighborhood-scope, regional-scope, and global-scope algorithms as long as they are parallelizable. The library also supports multilayer algorithms. Besides the standard data domain decomposition methods, pRPL provides a spatially adaptive quad-tree-based decomposition to produce more evenly distributed workloads among processors. Data parallelism and task parallelism are supported, with both static and dynamic load-balancing. By grouping processors, pRPL also supports data–task hybrid parallelism, i.e., data parallelism within a processor group and task parallelism among processor groups. pSLEUTH, a parallel version of a well-known cellular automata model for simulating urban land-use change (SLEUTH), was developed to demonstrate full utilization of the advanced features of pRPL. Experiments with real-world data sets were conducted and the performance of pSLEUTH measured. We conclude not only that pRPL greatly reduces the development complexity of implementing a parallel raster-processing algorithm, it also greatly reduces the computing time of computationally intensive raster-processing algorithms, as demonstrated with pSLEUTH.  相似文献   

Modelling sustainable urban growth in a rapidly urbanising region using a fuzzy-constrained cellular automata approach     

Yan Liu 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(1):151-167

This article presents an application of a fuzzy-constrained cellular automata model to simulate the spatio-temporal processes of urban growth in the rapidly growing Gold Coast City in Southeast Queensland, Australia. Urban growth has been captured in the model as a continuous process in space and over time, which has been affected by a set of primary and secondary transition rules. The primary transition rules deal with the propensity of a local area for development and the impact of its neighbouring cells on such development, while the secondary transition rules reflect the influences of environmental and institutional factors on urban growth. Application of the model demonstrates its re-applicability to different regions and the effectiveness of the cellular automata technique in studying urban dynamics. It also provides tools to explore sustainable urban growth options under different socio-environmental and planning control factors. A sustainable urban future of the region is achievable if development is managed to maintain a balance amongst ecological conservation, economic growth and the contemporary Australian lifestyle.  相似文献   

The inclusion of differentially assessed lands in urban growth model calibration: a comparison of two approaches using SLEUTH     

Jeff Onsted  Keith C. Clarke 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(5):881-898

This research sought to understand the role that differentially assessed lands (lands in the United States given tax breaks in return for their guarantee to remain in agriculture) play in influencing urban growth. Our method was to calibrate the SLEUTH urban growth model under two different conditions. The first used an excluded layer that ignored such lands, effectively rendering them available for development. The second treated those lands as totally excluded from development. Our hypothesis was that excluding those lands would yield better metrics of fit with past data. Our results validate our hypothesis since two different metrics that evaluate goodness of fit both yielded higher values when differentially assessed lands are treated as excluded. This suggests that, at least in our study area, differential assessment, which protects farm and ranch lands for tenuous periods of time, has indeed allowed farmland to resist urban development. Including differentially assessed lands also yielded very different calibrated coefficients of growth as the model tried to account for the same growth patterns over two very different excluded areas. Excluded layer design can greatly affect model behavior. Since differentially assessed lands are quite common through the United States and are often ignored in urban growth modeling, the findings of this research can assist other urban growth modelers in designing excluded layers that result in more accurate model calibration and thus forecasting.  相似文献