Validation of the effects of temperature simulated by multi-model ensemble and prediction of mean temperature changes for the next three decades in China     

Ke Liu  Jie Pan  ShengCai Tao  YinLong Xu 《寒旱区科学》2012,4(1):0056-0064

Using series of daily average temperature observations over the period of 1961–1999 of 701 meteorological stations in China, and simulated results of 20 global climate models (such as BCCR_BCM2.0, CGCM3T47) during the same period as the observation, we validate and analyze the simulated results of the models by using three factor statistical method, achieve the results of multi- model ensemble, test and verify the results of multi-model ensemble by using the observation data during the period of 1991–1999. Finally, we analyze changes of the annual mean temperature result of multi-mode ensemble prediction for the period of 2011–2040 under the emission scenarios A2, A1B and B1. Analyzed results show that: (1) Global climate models can reproduce Chinese regional spatial distribution of annual mean temperature, especially in low latitudes and eastern China. (2) With the factor of the trend of annual mean temperature changes in reference period, there is an obvious bias between the model and the observation. (3) Testing the result of multi-model ensemble during the period of 1991–1999, we can simulate the trend of temperature increase. Compared to observation, the result of different weighing multi-model ensemble prediction is better than the same weighing ensemble. (4) For the period of 2011–2040, the growth of the annual mean temperature in China, which results from multi-mode ensemble prediction, is above 1 °C. In the spatial distribution of annual mean temperature, under the emission scenarios of A2, A1B and B1, the trend of growth in South China region is the smallest, the increment is less than or equals to 0.8 °C; the trends in the northwestern region and south of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are the largest, the increment is more than 1 °C.  相似文献   

Floribec: The life and death of a tourism-based transnational community     

《Norsk geografisk tidsskrift. Norwegian journal of geography》2012,66(1):54-59

The authors outline how a tourist destination can morph into a tourism-based transnational community. A three-phase model is designed to explore the touristification process of a transnational community. The phases are the adoption of a tourist destination, the transformation of the destination into a tourism-based transnational community, and decline under real estate and ageing population pressures.  相似文献   

不同城市化水平地区农户农地收入分析——基于浙江省农户的问卷调查     

宁爱凤  刘友兆 《地域研究与开发》2012,31(3):163-166,176

用SPSS13.0单因素方差分析和均值比较方法,对浙江省不同城市化地区的农户农地收入比重进行比较分析。认为城市化不同,农户农地收入比重不同,城市化程度高的地区农户农地利用经济收入比值的平均值低于城市化程度低的地区,但城市化程度高的地区农户农地收入比值标准差大于城市化低的地区,其中主要原因是城市化不同导致农户兼业时间不同。提出要创造条件促进资源集中型农户兼业化,使农户农地利用经济效率得到提高,缩小城乡收入差距。  相似文献   

亚洲夏季风区中尺度地形降水结构及分布特征   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

朱素行  徐海明  徐蜜蜜 《大气科学》2010,34(1):71-82

采用高分辨率TRMM、AIRS卫星实测资料, 从气候态的降水微物理过程角度分析了亚洲夏季风期间中尺度山脉对不同性质降水垂直结构和水平分布的影响。研究表明, 中尺度山脉迎风、背风坡均以层云降水为主, 层云降水强度在迎风坡强于背风坡; 对流降水在迎风坡主要为浅对流, 背风坡主要为深对流, 对流降水强度在背风坡强于迎风坡。沿西南季风推进方向依次经过的中尺度山脉, 其两侧发生降水像素个数、 降水微物理特征等差异逐渐减小, 其中, 对流降水迎风坡向背风坡转变明显, 而层云降水背风坡向迎风坡转变明显。大气稳定度与对流降水在迎风、背风坡的分布相一致。另外, 对中尺度地形降水的研究为区域气候模式模拟高精度地形降水分布提供了实测依据。  相似文献   

温室黄瓜生育期模拟模型的研究   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

李永秀  罗卫红  倪纪恒  陈永山  徐国彬  韩利  陈春宏 《南京气象学院学报》2008,31(2):257-263

根据黄瓜（Cucumis sativus）发育的光温反应过程,建立了基于生理发育时间的黄瓜生育期模拟模型,并利用不同品种的试验资料对模型进行了检验。结果表明,黄瓜从播种到第一批瓜成熟需积累生理发育时间30d,播种—幼苗、幼苗—伸蔓、伸蔓—开花、开花—结瓜、结瓜—成熟所需的生理发育时间分别为3、11、9、5、2d。发芽期、幼苗期、伸蔓期、开花期、结瓜期等各生育期持续时间的模拟值与实际观测值的回归估计标准误差（root mean squared error;RMSE）分别为0、2．6、1．7、0．8、2．1d,从播种到第一次采收的模拟值与观测值的RMSE为1．4d。而用有效积温法对发芽期、幼苗期、伸蔓期、开花期、结瓜期等各生育期持续时间的模拟值与实际观测值的RMSE分别为0．7、10．0、5．7、2．4、2．5d,从播种到第一次采收的模拟值与观测值的RMSE为22．0d。本模型比用有效积温法能更准确地预测黄瓜各个生育期的起止日期和黄瓜的收获期。  相似文献   

酸不溶物对碳酸盐岩风化壳发育程度的影响   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

冯志刚  王世杰  刘秀明  罗维均 《地质学报》2009,83(6):885-893

通过对贵州岩溶区（包括湘西）不同地层系统碳酸盐岩发育的红色风化壳、以及结合本区和处于同一气候带的邻区不同岩类红色风化壳的对比研究,结果表明：（1）碳酸盐岩红色风化壳的发育程度明显受基岩酸不溶物成分的控制,酸不溶物的风化成熟度越高,红色风化壳的发育程度一般也越强。由于不同地层系统碳酸盐岩的酸不溶物组成不同,在此基础上发育的红色风化壳的风化强度自然存在着差异;（2）风化壳相对于母岩的进一步风化潜力或空间,随着基岩酸不溶物风化成熟度的增大而降低,从而更容易达到风化平衡;（3）在碳酸盐岩风化壳突变的岩-土界面,伴随碳酸盐的充分淋失、酸不溶物的地球化学指标发生了突变。因此,碳酸盐的溶解不但未阻滞和延缓了硅酸盐组分的分解,而且促进其快速风化。（4）在达到高岭石化甚至弱红土化阶段的酸不溶物基础上,发育的风化壳比结晶岩类风化壳具有更高的风化起点,也就表现出更高的风化强度。因此,笼统地把碳酸盐岩风化壳看作是弱于玄武岩及花岗岩等结晶岩类风化壳发育程度的弱风化类型是不妥的。  相似文献   

Early and Middle Pleistocene landscapes of eastern England   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

James Rose 《Proceedings of the Geologists' Association. Geologists' Association》2009,120(1):3-33

This paper reviews the pattern of climate and environmental change in eastern England over the period of the Early and Middle Pleistocene, focussing especially upon northern East Anglia. Particular attention is given to the climate and tectonics that have brought about these changes and the distinctive geology, topography and biology that has developed. Throughout, an attempt is made to describe the new models that have been proposed for the Early and Middle Pleistocene of eastern England, and explain the reasons for these changes. The Early Pleistocene experienced relatively high insulation and relatively low magnitude climatic change and is represented primarily by non-climatically forced processes in the form of tidal current- and wave-activity which formed shallow marine deposits. It is possible to recognise a tectonic control in the distribution of deposits of this age because the surface processes do not have the power to remove this signature. The early Middle Pleistocene was dominated by higher magnitude climatic change involving, occasionally, climatic extremes that ranged from permafrost to mediterranean. The landscape at this time was dominated by the behaviour of major rivers (Thames, Bytham, Ancaster) and extensive coastal activity. In the latter part of the early Middle Pleistocene and the Late Middle Pleistocene the climate experienced major changes which resulted in periods of lowland glaciation and short intervals when the climate was warmer than the present. Details of tectonic activity are difficult to identify because they are removed by powerful surface processes, but it is possible to infer uplift focussed on the major interfluves of central England and subsidence in the North Seas basin. In the areas of glaciation the landscape changed radically from an organised terrain dominated by large rivers and extensive shallow coastal zones to complex, with small valleys, disrupted drainage and often discontinuous river, slope and coastal deposits. Likewise the switching off of the North Sea Delta and the opening of the Strait of Dover, separating Britain from continental Europe can be attributed to the onset of lowland glaciation. The case is made that eastern England was glaciated four times during the Middle Pleistocene: during MIS 16, 12, 10 and 6, and attention is given to recent evidence contradicting this model. Over the period of the Middle Pleistocene there is evidence for high biomass production occurring over short intervals coinciding with the climatic optima of MIS 19, 17, 15, 13, 11, and 7c, 7a and during most of these warmer periods, extending back to c. 750 ka (MIS 19/17), there is evidence in the region for the brief appearance of humans.  相似文献   

Mediterranean Neogene stratigraphy: development and evolution through the centuries     

MARIA BIANCA CITA 《Sedimentology》2009,56(1):43-62

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改进Faster R-CNN的遥感图像多尺度飞机目标检测     

沙苗苗  李宇  李安 《遥感学报》2022,26(8):1624-1635

为了提高遥感图像中多尺度飞机目标的检测精度,本文提出一种基于改进Faster R-CNN的遥感图像飞机目标检测方法。该方法借助多层级融合结构,将深层次的语义特征与浅层次的细节特征相结合,生成多种尺度的既具有精确的位置信息又具有深层次的语义特征的特征图;再借助Faster R-CNN的多尺度RPN（Region Proposal Network）机制,通过对RPN中候选区域尺度的修正,从而提高遥感图像中多尺度飞机目标的定位精度;最后利用Faster R-CNN的分类回归网络,得到飞机目标检测结果。在高分辨率遥感图像中进行了实验,对3种特征提取网络ZF、VGG-16以及ResNet-50进行改进,改进后的精度分别提高了11.34%、9.87%以及1.66%,并且生成的检测框更加贴合飞机目标。实验结果表明,本文方法适用于遥感图像多尺度飞机目标检测,在提高目标定位精度的同时降低了目标漏检现象。  相似文献   

初夏西北太平洋副高东西变动对中国南部降水东西差异的影响   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

晏红明  肖子牛  薛建军 《地球物理学报》2021,64(3):765-781

西北太平洋副热带高压(以下简称副高)是影响中国气候的大尺度环流系统,为了进一步了解副高对中国气候的影响,本文利用站点观测资料和大气环流再分析资料,通过资料诊断分析和数值模拟方法,探讨了6月副高东西变动对中国南部降水的影响,以及影响副高东西变动的前期海洋因子.结果表明副高东西变动对中国西南和华南地区降水的影响明显不同:副高偏东有利于降水西南偏多而华南偏少,偏西则降水变化刚好相反.其原因与副高东西变化引起的环流差异有关,华南降水与副高东(西)变动时西太平洋地区副高西北侧的东北(西南)风异常以及东亚中低纬度地区异常经向波列的变化直接有关,而西南降水异常不仅与副高东西变动在东南亚地区引起的纬向风异常有关,与青藏高原大地形动力作用对副高北侧异常纬向风的变化也有十分密切的联系.此外,副高东西变动时影响西南和华南地区的水汽来源不同,影响西南的水汽主要来源于赤道印度洋80°E附近越赤道气流,而影响华南的水汽主要来源于副高南侧偏东气流从西北太平洋地区输送的水汽.进一步分析发现前期冬春季热带西北太平洋和赤道西太平洋海温变化的偶极差异与后期初夏副高东西变动有密切联系,冬春季西北太平洋暖海温和赤道西太平洋冷海温变化有利于后期初夏副高偏西,相反则有利于副高偏东,数值模拟结果在一定程度证实了资料诊断分析结果.  相似文献