Testing a model for predicting the timing and location of shallow landslide initiation in soil‐mantled landscapes     

M. Casadei  W. E. Dietrich  N. L. Miller 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2003,28(9):925-950

The growing availability of digital topographic data and the increased reliability of precipitation forecasts invite modelling efforts to predict the timing and location of shallow landslides in hilly and mountainous areas in order to reduce risk to an ever‐expanding human population. Here, we exploit a rare data set to develop and test such a model. In a 1·7 km² catchment a near‐annual aerial photographic coverage records just three single storm events over a 45 year period that produced multiple landslides. Such data enable us to test model performance by running the entire rainfall time series and determine whether just those three storms are correctly detected. To do this, we link a dynamic and spatially distributed shallow subsurface runoff model (similar to TOPMODEL) to an in?nite slope model to predict the spatial distribution of shallow landsliding. The spatial distribution of soil depth, a strong control on local landsliding, is predicted from a process‐based model. Because of its common availability, daily rainfall data were used to drive the model. Topographic data were derived from digitized 1 : 24 000 US Geological Survey contour maps. Analysis of the landslides shows that 97 occurred in 1955, 37 in 1982 and ?ve in 1998, although the heaviest rainfall was in 1982. Furthermore, intensity–duration analysis of available daily and hourly rainfall from the closest raingauges does not discriminate those three storms from others that did not generate failures. We explore the question of whether a mechanistic modelling approach is better able to identify landslide‐producing storms. Landslide and soil production parameters were ?xed from studies elsewhere. Four hydrologic parameters characterizing the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the soil and underlying bedrock and its decline with depth were ?rst calibrated on the 1955 landslide record. Success was characterized as the most number of actual landslides predicted with the least amount of total area predicted to be unstable. Because landslide area was consistently overpredicted, a threshold catchment area of predicted slope instability was used to de?ne whether a rainstorm was a signi?cant landslide producer. Many combinations of the four hydrological parameters performed equally well for the 1955 event, but only one combination successfully identi?ed the 1982 storm as the only landslide‐producing storm during the period 1980–86. Application of this parameter combination to the entire 45 year record successfully identi?ed the three events, but also predicted that two other landslide‐producing events should have occurred. This performance is signi?cantly better than the empirical intensity–duration threshold approach, but requires considerable calibration effort. Overprediction of instability, both for storms that produced landslides and for non‐producing storms, appears to arise from at least four causes: (1) coarse rainfall data time scale and inability to document short rainfall bursts and predict pressure wave response; (2) absence of local rainfall data; (3) legacy effect of previous landslides; and (4) inaccurate topographic and soil property data. Greater resolution of spatial and rainfall data, as well as topographic data, coupled with systematic documentation of landslides to create time series to test models, should lead to signi?cant improvements in shallow landslides forecasting. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The design of post‐mining landscapes using geomorphic principles     

G. R. Hancock  R. J. Loch  G. R. Willgoose 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2003,28(10):1097-1110

Nature can provide analogues for post‐mining landscapes in terms of landscape stability and also in terms of the rehabilitated structure ‘blending in’ with the surrounding undisturbed landscape. In soil‐mantled landscapes, hillslopes typically have a characteristic pro?le that has a convex upper hillslope pro?le with a concave pro?le lower down the slope. In this paper hillslope characteristic form is derived using the area–slope relationship from pre‐mining topography at two sites in Western Australia. Using this relationship, concave hillslope pro?les are constructed and compared to linear hillslopes in terms of sediment loss using the SIBERIA erosion model. It is found that concave hillslopes can reduce sediment loss by up to ?ve times that of linear slopes. Concave slopes can therefore provide an alternative method for the construction of post‐mining landscapes. An understanding of landscape geomorphological properties and the use of erosion models can greatly assist in the design of post‐mining landscapes. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

数字城市规划系统关键技术分析     

王康弘  刘利 《测绘信息与工程》2003,28(4):42-45

分析了数字城市规划系统的业务需求，介绍了其基础数据更新、工作流、无纸化办公、历史空间信息管理等主要关键技术，并对其进行了讨论。  相似文献   

采用Creator生成三维地形   总被引：20，自引：0，他引：20  

舒娱琴  唐丽玉  彭国均 《测绘信息与工程》2003,28(5):9-11

介绍了Creator地形转换的四种算法，讨论了在Creator中生成地形的过程，并以福建省闽清地区水口店为研究区域，建立直观性的、真实性的三维地形。  相似文献   

数字土地信息系统的集成模式探讨     

姜春山  许盛伟  杨国东 《测绘与空间地理信息》2003,26(2):3-5

简述土地管理的特点,分析土地信息系统的组成,具体介绍如何实现数字土地信息系统的集成。  相似文献   

数字地籍测绘实施中的技术问题     

段莉  杨晓明 《测绘与空间地理信息》2003,26(2):29-30

数字地籍测绘是目前土地管理部门的首选方案,需要制定街坊划分、界址线设定、工作底图与采集草图一体化作业、数据文件管理、街坊线、图斑的绘制等技术措施。  相似文献   

深圳市1 km高分辨率厘米级高精度大地水准面的确定   总被引：56，自引：1，他引：56  

宁津生  罗志才  杨沾吉  陈永奇  张天纪 《测绘学报》2003,32(2):102-107

利用65个精度优于2 cm的GPS水准数据、5 213个实测重力点数据、100 m分辨率的数字地形模型和WDM94地球重力场模型,采用移去-恢复技术计算了深圳市1 km分辨率的大地水准面模型.将该模型大地水准面高与由29个GPS水准得到的大地水准面高进行比较,其差值的标准差为±1.4 cm.  相似文献   

现代城市数字测图方法浅析     

张文胜 《四川测绘》2003,26(4):155-157

本文分析比较了目前城市大比例尺数字化测图中主要方法的优缺点，并为实现数字化地形图中不连续线、面状符号及复杂线状符号向GIS的自动化导入，针对电子平板法提出了基础线的概念。对全站仪草图法，提出在全站仪上加挂微型计算机，并用常规摄像方法代替草图。  相似文献   

基于普通数码相机的影像匹配技术   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

保文星  虞鹤松  林卫公 《测绘工程》2003,12(2):30-33

论述了将全数字摄影测量应用于计算煤场煤堆体积的基本理论和方法。重点论述了普通数码相机影像匹配方法和数学模型，系统的物理模型在实验室内得以验证和实现。  相似文献   

电子政务建设应注意军事应用的几个问题     

胡丹露 《测绘科学》2003,28(1):45-47

电子政务的运行模式必将促使国防动员、军队决策指挥 ,以及战场信息应用等环节发生相应的变化。建设电子政务将促进国防动员工作规范化、制度化 ,将创造条件实现政府对军队的信息支援 ,将有利于未来战争数字战场环境建设。建设电子政务系统和“数字城市”、“数字省区”时 ,应结合国防动员和信息支援的问题从顶层构架 ,统盘考虑军事应用 ,同时制定法规和标准  相似文献