A timescale decomposed threshold regression downscaling approach to forecasting South China early summer rainfall     

Linye Song  Wansuo Duan  Yun Li  Jiangyu Mao 《大气科学进展》2016,33(9):1071-7084

A timescale decomposed threshold regression(TSDTR) downscaling approach to forecasting South China early summer rainfall(SCESR) is described by using long-term observed station rainfall data and NOAA ERSST data. It makes use of two distinct regression downscaling models corresponding to the interannual and interdecadal rainfall variability of SCESR.The two models are developed based on the partial least squares(PLS) regression technique, linking SCESR to SST modes in preceding months on both interannual and interdecadal timescales. Specifically, using the datasets in the calibration period 1915–84, the variability of SCESR and SST are decomposed into interannual and interdecadal components. On the interannual timescale, a threshold PLS regression model is fitted to interannual components of SCESR and March SST patterns by taking account of the modulation of negative and positive phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO). On the interdecadal timescale, a standard PLS regression model is fitted to the relationship between SCESR and preceding November SST patterns. The total rainfall prediction is obtained by the sum of the outputs from both the interannual and interdecadal models. Results show that the TSDTR downscaling approach achieves reasonable skill in predicting the observed rainfall in the validation period 1985–2006, compared to other simpler approaches. This study suggests that the TSDTR approach,considering different interannual SCESR-SST relationships under the modulation of PDO phases, as well as the interdecadal variability of SCESR associated with SST patterns, may provide a new perspective to improve climate predictions.  相似文献   

北斗卫星导航系统双差动力法精密定轨及其精度分析     

刘伟平  郝金明  田英国  于合理  张康 《测绘学报》2016,45(2):131-139

针对GEO卫星切向轨道分量与双差模糊度强相关的问题,对经典双差动力法进行了改进,提出联合使用载波相位和相位平滑伪距实现北斗系统精密定轨,并从理论上分析了以上处理策略的可行性及对模糊度固定的影响,然后结合北斗系统精密定轨特点,推导给出了利用QIF方法实现北斗卫星双差模糊度固定的基本原理,实测数据分析表明:联合载波相位和相位平滑伪距,既可降低相关性,又可兼顾精度,定轨效果优于经典双差动力法;利用QIF方法能够取得一定的模糊度固定效果,但受观测条件限制,北斗卫星双差模糊度固定成功率整体不高,双差模糊度固定之后对轨道的改进作用有限。  相似文献   

经验加速度补偿对HY-2A卫星精密定轨的影响     

孔巧丽  郭金运  赵春梅 《测绘科学》2016,(8):165-169

针对HY-2A卫星定轨中存在系统误差的问题,该文提出了加入经验加速度补偿系统误差。为了获得HY-2A卫星的高精度轨道,采用星载DORIS距离变率数据探索了经验加速度对定轨精度的影响。探讨了1d、3d和7d作为经验加速度周期的定轨精度差异,分析了3d作为经验加速度周期时在径向、法向和切向3个方向设置经验加速度对定轨精度的不同影响。研究结果表明:HY-2A卫星在径向和切向不存在系统误差,而在法向存在系统误差,因而在法向设置经验加速度进行力学模型补偿能够取得较好的定轨结果;3d作为经验加速度的补偿周期较为合适,不仅能够减少解算参数个数,缩短计算时间,而且径向定轨精度可达到1.00cm,满足HY-2A卫星精密定轨需求。  相似文献   

Internal Microanatomy and Zoological Affinity of the Early Cambrian Olivooides     

HAN Jian  LI Guoxiang  Kubota Shin  Ou Qiang  Toshino Sho  Wang Xing  Yang Xiaoguang  Uesugi Kentaro  Masato Hoshino  Sasaki Osamu  Kano Harumas  Sato Tomohiko  Komiya Tsuyoshi 《《地质学报》英文版》2016,90(1):38-65

The early Cambrian pentamerous microfossil Olivooides/Punctatus in South China, which is characterized by a diagnostic stellate tubular apex, has been well-known for its almost complete development sequence that can be confidently traced from embryos and hatched juveniles, to conical adults. However, its zoological affinity remains highly controversial. Here we describe the internal microanatomic structures of the soft-body inside the peridermal theca of Olivooides multisulcatus Qian, 1977, including interradial pairs of tentacles, adradial and perradial frenula, perradial oral marginal lappets and twins of perradial gastric saccule-like humps as well as a circular velarium with striated coronal muscles. Particularly, one specimen shows bifurcated velarial canals along the bell aperture. Both the components of the soft-body and the external theca (or cyst) are arranged in perfect pentaradial symmetry. These characteristics are more compatible with those of living cubomedusans and co-occurring Cambrian athecate embryonic cubozoans. Concerning the presence of peridermal theca, Olivooides most likely represents an extinct thecate stem-group cubomedusae but devoid of both perradial eyes and specialized pedalia. The well-grown soft body inside the peridermal tube displays a set of mixed features of both polyp and medusa.  相似文献   

东北大三江盆地群早白垩世存在统一湖盆的沉积学证据          下载免费PDF全文

张云鹏  任建业  王珊  赵学钦 《中国地质》2016,(4):1280-1290

大三江盆地群位于黑龙江省东部,中生代以来经历了多期构造运动,形成现今各自分割的10余个残余盆地。由于缺乏关键性证据,前人对大三江地区早白垩世是否存在统一湖盆存在争议。本次研究通过野外地质调查和钻井岩心观察,认为盆地总体缺乏边缘相沉积,并且主要以三角洲平原亚相和滨浅湖亚相为主。古水流恢复和重矿物特征显示,研究区主要存在西部和西北部、东部以及东南部三大物源体系,并且平面上具有由四周向中心汇聚的特征。地震资料反射特征显示下白垩统具有典型的断陷-坳陷复合结构,坳陷时期地层由各盆地中心至边部未出现明显的地层减薄现象,现今的盆地边界断裂多为后期对盆地进行改造、破坏的逆冲断裂。这些证据都是对大三江地区早白垩世存在统一湖盆的有力支撑。本研究不仅能为大三江盆地群原型盆地的恢复提供重要依据,也将为东北盆地群油气资源远景评价和进一步的勘探部署提供参考。  相似文献   

延庆千家店地区硅化木赋存层位及形成时代分析     

焦润成  王荣荣  张淑云 《城市地质》2016,(2):56-59

北京延庆千家店土城子组中的硅化木自发现以来,得到了众多学者的关注,但关于硅化木的赋存层位和形成时代一直未有定论,目前主流观点认为硅化木广泛发育于土城子组一段和二段的下部,关于其形成时代则自侏罗纪早期至白垩纪早期的论述均有,这种争论显然不利于木化石的保护、科普和进一步深化认识。在千家店土城子组进行的考察结果展现出与前人观点不同的线索。实地考察、剖面测量和年龄测试结果显示:原位埋藏硅化木形成时代应为晚侏罗世早期,赋存层位为土城子组一段下部,而土城子组二段下部的沉积特征反应出当时水位频繁升降,水体能量剧烈变化,火山活动暂时陷入沉寂的沉积环境,较难满足形成木化石的基本要求。  相似文献   

黄海南部小黄鱼洄游分布及种群结构特征     

熊瑛  仲霞铭  汤建华  杨健 《海洋学报(英文版)》2016,35(6):34-41

Monthly fishery survey data of the small yellow croaker Larimichthys polyactis in the southern Yellow Sea from2003 and 2013 were employed to evaluate the variation in the resource distribution and biological characteristics(especially body length and sex ratio) in the population on a decadal scale.The results indicated that the small yellow croaker migrated from the Shawai fishing ground to the Dasha fishing ground in spring and was mainly distributed in the central and western parts of the Dasha fishing ground in April and May.Larimichthys polyactis in the Dasha fishing ground migrated eastward to offshore wintering grounds in autumn and reached the central Dasha fishing ground in October and November.The small yellow croaker entered the western waters of the Shawai fishing ground in winter.A large number of age 0+ fish occurred in the Shawai and Jiangwai fishing grounds in October of 2003 and 2013.The body lengths of the spawning stock and wintering stock in 2013 were larger than those in 2003,and the monthly sex ratios(female to male) were significantly less than 1 in both years.The monthly distribution of this fish in the southern Yellow Sea was consistent with a previous finding that "the stock migrated between the wintering grounds in the west of Jeju Island and the Lüsi spawning grounds" but tended to move more northward,with the spawning grounds extending outward.In the past decade,body length variation experienced a decline after an increase,rather than a steady decrease.The sex ratio in the single-stick stow net showed a tendency to increase over the decade,but was either less than or more than 1 depending on the fishing gear;therefore,further studies should be conducted to determine the sex structure.  相似文献   

北极秋季海冰密集度与中国初冬降雨之间的关系   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

刘娜  林丽娜  孔彬  王颖杰  张占海  陈红霞 《海洋学报(英文版)》2016,35(5):73-78

本文通过对中国地区实测降水及北极海冰卫星数据的分析,研究了北极秋季海冰密集度与中国初冬降雨的关系。合成分析的研究结果表明2000年之前中国南方和北方冬季降水偏少,中部降水偏多,这之后中国南方和北方冬季降水增加,中部降水减少。SVD研究结果显示,北极海冰减少使得近三十年来中国南方和北方冬季降雨呈现逐渐增多,中部地区(从青藏高原向东北方向至日本)降雨逐步减少的趋势。随着北极海冰的进一步减少,如遇合适的气候条件,南方冻雨出现的概率会加大。北极秋季海冰异常的回复过程加之冬季海冰异常的延续信号在中国、蒙古及日本北部激发一个阻塞高压,以巴伦支海/卡拉海为中心激发一个异常低压。这使得来自北冰洋大西洋扇区的冷空气南下至欧洲大陆和亚洲北部,在阻塞高压的影响下,冷空气进一步南下,进入东亚地区。这不仅使得亚洲冬季温度降低,也为中国北部降水增加提供条件。  相似文献   

矿业权边界在资源储量估算垂直纵投影图上的确定   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

贾绍松  栾元滇  岳伟佳  杨元 《山东国土资源》2016,32(1)

利用垂直纵投影图进行资源储量估算时,当矿体走向与矿业权边界斜交时,矿业权边界在资源储量垂直纵投影图上投影的准确位置较难确定。该文介绍了利用不同中段平面图和利用计算公式确定矿业权边界在资源储量垂直纵投影图上的投影位置,对解决此类问题具有一定的参考价值。  相似文献   

西藏塔惹增地区下白垩统捷嘎组的厘定及其地质意义          下载免费PDF全文

白培荣  熊兴国  李月森  马德胜  曾禹人  廖铸敏  蒋开源  张厚松  吴滔  黄建国  符宏斌  龙胜清 《贵州地质》2018,35(3):197-204

笔者于西藏仲巴县塔惹增地区一带前人划分的一套早白垩世早期则弄群中发现了具有典型意义的、代表早白垩世晚期的Ampullina xainzaensis Yu,Ampullina cf. larteli Landerer,Tylostoma cf. brasilianus Maury,Pseudamaura cf. subfournaeti (Pcelincev),Gyrodes gaultiana Orbigny,Leviathania cf. gerassimovi(Pcelincev),Gymnentome cf. pizcuetana(Vilanova)等腹足类化石,以及较为丰富的中圆笠虫Mesorbitolina sp.和达克斯虫Daxia sp。表明在该区则弄群中至少有一部分以前没有被识别出的早白垩世晚期地层。通过岩石组合特征、基本层序、生物化石时代对比,将该套地层归属于捷嘎组。这一地层的确定为冈底斯带白垩系地层划分对比、地层格架建立提供了重要的依据,并丰富了该地层的古生物资料,且为中生代盆地的演化历史、古地理轮廓的确定提供了新的基础资料。  相似文献