TOPCAT‐NP: a minimum information requirement model for simulation of flow and nutrient transport from agricultural systems     

P. F. Quinn  C. J. M. Hewett  N. D. K. Dayawansa 《水文研究》2008,22(14):2565-2580

Future catchment planning requires a good understanding of the impacts of land use and management, especially with regard to nutrient pollution. A range of readily usable tools, including models, can play a critical role in underpinning robust decision‐making. Modelling tools must articulate our process understanding, make links to a range of catchment characteristics and scales and have the capability to reflect future land‐use management changes. Hence, the model application can play an important part in giving confidence to policy makers that positive outcomes will arise from any proposed land‐use changes. Here, a minimum information requirement (MIR) modelling approach is presented that creates simple, parsimonious models based on more complex physically based models, which makes the model more appropriate to catchment‐scale applications. This paper shows three separate MIR models that represent flow, nitrate losses and phosphorus losses. These models are integrated into a single catchment model (TOPCAT‐NP), which has the advantage that certain model components (such as soil type and flow paths) are shared by all three MIR models. The integrated model can simulate a number of land‐use activities that relate to typical land‐use management practices. The modelling process also gives insight into the seasonal and event nature of nutrient losses exhibited at a range of catchment scales. Three case studies are presented to reflect the range of applicability of the model. The three studies show how different runoff and nutrient loss regimes in different soil/geological and global locations can be simulated using the same model. The first case study models intense agricultural land uses in Denmark (Gjern, 114 km²), the second is an intense agricultural area dominated by high superphosphate applications in Australia (Ellen Brook, 66 km²) and the third is a small research‐scale catchment in the UK (Bollington Hall, 2 km²). Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

海洋遥感数据缺值对EOF和REOF时空分布分析的影响     

黄二辉  杨燕明  潘德炉 《台湾海峡》2008,27(1):99-111

本文分别采用经验正交函数EOF和旋转经验正交函数REOF两种方法,对中国海(14°～40°N、105°～132°E)1998年1月～1999年8月之间SeaWiFS归一化离水辐射率Lwn(490nm)数据,进行时空分布分析研究.结果表明:在不同时间区段、不同空间范围,利用EOF和REOF分解得到的典型要素场时空分布存在较小差异,在时间、空间分布上较稳定.同时也说明,被云遮掩的部分遥感数据对EOF和REOF分析结果影响是很小的.  相似文献   

Towards an Integrated Model of Interoperability for Spatial Data Infrastructures     

Miguel-Ángel Manso  Monica Wachowicz  Miguel-Ángel Bernabé 《Transactions in GIS》2009,13(1):43-67

Although there is a vast literature available on interoperability models, and their respective interoperability levels, limited research has been carried out on the development of interoperability models for the implementation of Spatial Data Infrastructures. This article demonstrates the important role of metadata elements in the formalisation of interoperability models for the implementation of Spatial Data Infrastructures. It describes an approach for designing an integrated interoperability model based on the definition of a common template that integrates seven interoperability levels. They are: technical, syntactic, semantic, pragmatic, dynamic, conceptual and organisational levels. A non-hierarchical structure is proposed to ensure the relationship among these interoperability levels.  相似文献   

Modelling chemo‐hydro‐mechanical behaviour of unsaturated clays: a feasibility study     

Z. Liu  N. Boukpeti  X. Li  F. Collin  J.‐P. Radu  T. Hueckel  R. Charlier 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2005,29(9):919-940

Effective capabilities of combined chemo‐elasto‐plastic and unsaturated soil models to simulate chemo‐hydro‐mechanical (CHM) behaviour of clays are examined in numerical simulations through selected boundary value problems. The objective is to investigate the feasibility of approaching such complex material behaviour numerically by combining two existing models. The chemo‐mechanical effects are described using the concept of chemical softening consisting of reduction of the pre‐consolidation pressure proposed originally by Hueckel (Can. Geotech. J. 1992; 29 :1071–1086; Int. J. Numer. Anal. Methods Geomech. 1997; 21 :43–72). An additional chemical softening mechanism is considered, consisting in a decrease of cohesion with an increase in contaminant concentration. The influence of partial saturation on the constitutive behaviour is modelled following Barcelona basic model (BBM) formulation (Géotech. 1990; 40 (3):405–430; Can. Geotech. J. 1992; 29 :1013–1032). The equilibrium equations combined with the CHM constitutive relations, and the governing equations for flow of fluids and contaminant transport, are solved numerically using finite element. The emphasis is laid on understanding the role that the individual chemical effects such as chemo‐elastic swelling, or chemo‐plastic consolidation, or finally, chemical loss of cohesion have in the overall response of the soil mass. The numerical problems analysed concern the chemical effects in response to wetting of a clay specimen with an organic liquid in rigid wall consolidometer, during biaxial loading up to failure, and in response to fresh water influx during tunnel excavation in swelling clay. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Bayesian dynamic modelling for nonstationary hydroclimatic time series forecasting along with uncertainty quantification     

D. Nagesh Kumar  Rajib Maity 《水文研究》2008,22(17):3488-3499

Forecasting of hydrologic time series, with the quantification of uncertainty, is an important tool for adaptive water resources management. Nonstationarity, caused by climate forcing and other factors, such as change in physical properties of catchment (urbanization, vegetation change, etc.), makes the forecasting task too difficult to model by traditional Box–Jenkins approaches. In this paper, the potential of the Bayesian dynamic modelling approach is investigated through an application to forecast a nonstationary hydroclimatic time series using relevant climate index information. The target is the time series of the volume of Devil's Lake, located in North Dakota, USA, for which it was proved difficult to forecast and quantify the associated uncertainty by traditional methods. Two different Bayesian dynamic modelling approaches are discussed, namely, a constant model and a dynamic regression model (DRM). The constant model uses the information of past observed values of the same time series, whereas the DRM utilizes the information from a causal time series as an exogenous input. Noting that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index appears to co‐vary with the time series of Devil's Lake annual volume, its use as an exogenous predictor is explored in the case study. The results of both the Bayesian dynamic models are compared with those from the traditional Box–Jenkins time series modelling approach. Although, in this particular case study, it is observed that the DRM performs marginally better than traditional models, the major strength of Bayesian dynamic models lies in the quantification of prediction uncertainty, which is of great value in hydrology, particularly under the recent climate change scenario. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

水平能见度经验公式在青岛沿海地区的应用   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

盛立芳  申莉莉  李秀镇  刘飞 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2009,39(5)

利用青岛4 a的能见度观测资料和大气气溶胶光学参数反演资料检验了4种能见度经验计算公式的适用性。发现Koschmieder公式和乘幂公式能更好地刻画能见度和气溶胶光学厚度间变化趋势上的相关性,但是由于能见度观测的不确定性和气溶胶光学参数反演的不准确性导致的数据离散性,需要确定更有代表性的经验参数。利用最大发生频率原则确定不同光学厚度对应的能见度值,据此确定适合青岛的各经验公式的经验参数,最后利用MODIS光学厚度资料将乘幂经验公式应用到青岛附近沿海地区能见度的计算,发现春季和夏季的能见度低于其他季节。  相似文献   

The release of dissolved actinium to the ocean: A global comparison of different end-members   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Walter Geibert  Matt Charette  Guebuem Kim  Willard S. Moore  Joseph Street  Megan Young  Adina Paytan   《Marine Chemistry》2008,109(3-4):409

The measurement of short-lived ²²³Ra often involves a second measurement for supported activities, which represents ²²⁷Ac in the sample. Here we exploit this fact, presenting a set of 284 values on the oceanic distribution of ²²⁷Ac, which was collected when analyzing water samples for short-lived radium isotopes by the radium delayed coincidence counting system. The present work compiles ²²⁷Ac data from coastal regions all over the northern hemisphere, including values from ground water, from estuaries and lagoons, and from marine end-members. Deep-sea samples from a continental slope off Puerto Rico and from an active vent site near Hawaii complete the overview of ²²⁷Ac near its potential sources.The average ²²⁷Ac activities of nearshore marine end-members range from 0.4 dpm m^− 3 at the Gulf of Mexico to 3.0 dpm m^− 3 in the coastal waters of the Korean Strait. In analogy to ²²⁸Ra, we find the extension of adjacent shelf regions to play a substantial role for ²²⁷Ac activities, although less pronounced than for radium, due to its weaker shelf source. Based on previously published values, we calculate an open ocean ²²⁷Ac inventory of 1.35 * 10¹⁸ dpm ²²⁷Ac_ex in the ocean, which corresponds to 37 moles, or 8.4 kg. This implies a flux of 127 dpm m⁻² y^− 1 from the deep-sea floor. For the shelf regions, we obtain a global inventory of ²²⁷Ac of 4.5 * 10¹⁵ dpm, which cannot be converted directly into a flux value, as the regional loss term of ²²⁷Ac to the open ocean would have to be included.Ac has so far been considered to behave similarly to Ra in the marine environment, with the exception of a strong Ac source in the deep-sea due to ²³¹Pa_ex. Here, we present evidence of geochemical differences between Ac, which is retained in a warm vent system, and Ra, which is readily released [Moore, W.S., Ussler, W. and Paull, C.K., 2008-this issue. Short-lived radium isotopes in the Hawaiian margin: Evidence for large fluid fluxes through the Puna Ridge. Marine Chemistry]. Another potential mechanism of producing deviations in ²²⁷Ac/²²⁸Ra and daughter isotope ratios from the expected production value of lithogenic material is observed at reducing environments, where enrichment in uranium may occur. The presented data here may serve as a reference for including ²²⁷Ac in circulation models, and the overview provides values for some end-members that contribute to the global Ac distribution.  相似文献   

Bianchi type-II space-times with constant deceleration parameter in self creation cosmology     

C. P. Singh  Suresh Kumar 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2007,310(1-2):31-39

The properties of locally rotationally symmetric Bianchi type-II perfect fluid space-times are analyzed in Barber’s second self-creation theory by using a special law of variation for Hubble’s parameter that yields a constant value of deceleration parameter. By assuming the equation of state p=γ ρ, many new solutions are obtained for different era—Zel’dovich, radiation, vacuum and vacuum energy dominated. The solutions with power-law and exponential expansion are discussed. A detailed study of geometrical and physical parameters is carried out. The nature of singularity is also clarified in each case.  相似文献   

Climate change and hydrology at the prairie margin: Historic and prospective future flows of Canada's Red Deer and other Rocky Mountain rivers          下载免费PDF全文

Laurens J. Philipsen  Karen M. Gill  Anita Shepherd  Stewart B. Rood 《水文研究》2018,32(17):2669-2684

The South Saskatchewan River Basin of southern Alberta drains the transboundary central Rocky Mountains region and provides the focus for irrigation agriculture in Canada. Following extensive development, two tributaries, the Oldman and Bow rivers, were closed for further water allocations, whereas the Red Deer River (RDR) remains open. The RDR basin is at the northern limit of the North American Great Plains and may be suitable for agricultural expansion with a warming climate. To consider irrigation development and ecological impacts, it is important to understand the regional hydrologic consequences of climate change. To analyse historic trends that could extend into the future, we developed century‐long discharge records for the RDR, by coordinating data across hydrometric gauges, estimating annual flows from seasonal records, and undertaking flow naturalization to compensate for river regulation. Analyses indicated some coordination with the Pacific decadal oscillation and slight decline in summer and annual flows from 1912 to 2016 (?0.13%/year, Sen's slope). Another forecasting approach involved regional downscaling from the global circulation models, CGCMI‐A, ECHAM4, HadCM3, and NCAR‐CCM3. These projected slight flow decreases from the mountain headwaters versus increases from the foothills and boreal regions, resulting in a slight increase in overall river flows (+0.1%/year). Prior projections from these and other global circulation models ranged from slight decrease to slight increase, and the average projection of ?0.05%/year approached the empirical trend. Assessments of other rivers draining the central and northern Rocky Mountains revealed a geographic transition in flow patterns over the past century. Flows from the rivers in Southern Alberta declined (around ?0.15%/year), in contrast to increasing flows in north‐eastern British Columbia and the Yukon. The RDR watershed approaches this transition, and this study thus revealed regional differentiation in the hydrological consequences from climate change.  相似文献   

Stability of model performance and parameter values on two catchments facing changes in climatic conditions     

Hong Li  Stein Beldring 《水文科学杂志》2015,60(7-8):1317-1330

Abstract

Hydrological models are often used for studying the hydrological effects of climate change; however, the stability of model performance and parameter values under changing climate conditions has seldom been evaluated and compared. In this study, three widely-used rainfall–runoff models, namely the SimHYD model, the HBV model and the Xin’anjiang model, are evaluated on two catchments subject to changing climate conditions. Evaluation is carried out with respect to the stability in their performance and parameter values in different calibration periods. The results show that (a) stability of model performance and parameter values depends on model structure as well as the climate of catchments, and the models with higher performance scores are more stable in changing conditions; (b) all the tested models perform better on a humid catchment than on an arid catchment; (c) parameter values are also more stable on a humid catchment than on an arid catchment; and (d) the differences in stability among models are somewhat larger in terms of model efficiency than in model parameter values.  相似文献