An evaluation of multi-annual management strategies for ICES roundfish stocks     

Kell  L.T.; Pilling  G.M.; Kirkwood  G.P.; Pastoors  M.A.; Mesnil  B.; Korsbrekke  K.; Abaunza  P.; Aps  R.; Biseau  A.; Kunzlik  P.; Needle  C.L.; Roel  B.A.; Ulrich  C. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2006,63(1):12-24

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水库鱼产力评价标准与模式的研究   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5       下载免费PDF全文

焦念志  李德尚 《海洋与湖沼》1993,24(1):79-86

本文在总结国内外已有成果的基础上,运用专家系统和灰色统计方法,初步建立了一套水库鱼产力评价的指标体系、指标权重体系和指标标准体系,首次给出了比较系统和具有普适意义的评价方案;并运用模糊数学方法建立了综合定量评价模式,从而在很大程度上解决了以往评价中由于多指标重迭、交错造成的难判、误判问题,为水库渔业资源的合理开发利用提供了比较科学的依据。  相似文献   

Validating management simulation models and implications for communicating results to stakeholders     

Pastoors  Martin A.; Poos  Jan Jaap; Kraak  Sarah B. M.; Machiels  Marcel A. M. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2007,64(4):818-824

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The petroleum evaluation of a tectonically complex area: The western margin of the Southeast Basin (France)     

A. Mascle  R. Vially  E. Deville  B. Biju-Duval  J.P. Roy 《Marine and Petroleum Geology》1996,13(8):941-961

The Southeast Basin of France is the thickest onshore French sedimentary basin which contains locally as much as 10 km of Mesozoic-Cenozoic sediment. Basin development occurred in several stages between late Carboniferous and late Cretaceous times. Partial tectonic inversion took place during two compressive events, the so-called ‘Pyrenean’ and ‘Alpine’ phases of late Cretaceous-early Tertiary and late Tertiary ages respectively. They are separated by an intervening stretching event of Oligocene age, which further south resulted in the opening of the western Mediterranean oceanic basin. As a result of this complex tectonic history, structural traps were difficult to image on the seismic data shot during the first phase of exploration prior to 1980. Oil and gas natural seeps, and shows in several wells, indicate that some petroleum systems are, or have been active, at least in some places.The present erosional western margin of the basin is more or less superimposed on the initial Triassic-Jurassic margin. Margin subsidence and Tertiary inversion are discussed using regional sections on which the polyphase history of the entire basin is well shown. These sections are located on three major segments where the Mesozoic margin is either partly preserved (Ardèche), or has been partly inverted in late Tertiary times (Vercors-Chartreuse), or has been completely inverted in early Tertiary times (Corbières-eastern Pyrenees). 1-D ‘Genex’ basin modelling on the Ardèche segment, and 2-D ‘Thrustpack’ structural-maturity modelling in the Vercors-Chartreuse segment are used to further assess the remaining petroleum plays.  相似文献   

废弃海洋桩基平台拆除方案的系统决策研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

阎宏生  郭海涛  韩圣章 《海洋技术学报》2004,23(4):81-84,95

海洋平台拆除是一项复杂的、受多种因素制约的、涉及许多技术领域的综合性系统工程。采取适当的拆除方案是工程安全、经济、环保地进行的基础和保证。针对这一问题，文章对拆除方案的评估进行了系统的研究，从环境、工艺、安全、经济、工期的角度建立了拆除方案评估指标体系，并综合运用群决策层次分析理论和模糊数学理论对拆除方案进行系统的评估。经实例验证，所建立的评估指标体系，可科学、公正、快捷地对方案进行评估，为决策者提供科学的决策基础。  相似文献   

Data assimilation for a coastal area morphodynamic model: Morecambe Bay     

T.R. Scott  D.C. Mason 《Coastal Engineering》2007

This paper investigates the use of data assimilation in coastal area morphodynamic modelling using Morecambe Bay as a study site. A simple model of the bay has been enhanced with a data assimilation scheme to better predict large-scale changes in bathymetry observed in the bay over a 3-year period. The 2DH decoupled morphodynamic model developed for the work is described, as is the optimal interpolation scheme used to assimilate waterline observations into the model run. Each waterline was acquired from a SAR satellite image and is essentially a contour of the bathymetry at some level within the inter-tidal zone of the bay. For model parameters calibrated against validation observations, model performance is good, even without data assimilation. However the use of data assimilation successfully compensates for a particular failing of the model, and helps to keep the model bathymetry on track. It also improves the ability of the model to predict future bathymetry. Although the benefits of data assimilation are demonstrated using waterline observations, any observations of morphology could potentially be used. These results suggest that data assimilation should be considered for use in future coastal area morphodynamic models.  相似文献   

Scientific tools to support the practical implementation of ecosystem-based fisheries management   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：5  

Smith  A. D. M.; Fulton  E. J.; Hobday  A. J.; Smith  D. C.; Shoulder  P. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2007,64(4):633-639

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Risk-based decision-making for drilling waste discharges using a fuzzy synthetic evaluation technique   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Rehan Sadiq  Tahir Husain  Neil Bose 《Ocean Engineering》2004,31(16):1929-1953

Offshore petroleum drilling wastes contain toxic substances that are potentially harmful to the marine ecosystem. Despite environmentally benign characteristics, wastes associated with synthetic-based fluids still contain a certain amount of pollutants due to contamination with formation oil and the presence of trace heavy metals in barite, which may pose risk when discharged into the marine environment. A framework is presented here for a decision support system for the selection of the best drilling waste discharge option. Uncertainties in the quantification of risk, cost and technical feasibility are expressed by fuzzy numbers. An analytical hierarchy process with a technique called fuzzy synthetic evaluation is employed to determine the best management alternative (discharge scenario).  相似文献   

关于海水网箱养殖系统风险评估的基础研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

刘圣聪  梁振林 《海洋湖沼通报》2007,(3):132-142

随着海水网箱养殖业的迅速发展,制约海水网箱养殖发展的种种因素也逐步显露出来(风暴潮等恶劣气候、环境污染、人为的破坏等等),海水网箱养殖在预期获得丰厚利润的同时也面临遭受巨大损失的风险。本文对海水网箱养殖系统风险评估的可操作性进行了基础研究,提出了一套适合海水网箱养殖系统的风险评估方法,并就数据的收集和专家评审表做了一些研究,以此客观的反映系统的安全性和可靠性,使决策者实现对养殖系统生命周期的最佳控制。  相似文献   

运用德尔菲调查—灰色统计法确立水库鱼产力综合评价中的指标权重体系   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

焦念志 《海洋湖沼通报》1992,(4)

本文运用德尔菲方法对水库鱼产力综合评价中指标权重的合理分配问题作了专家调查,并采用灰色统计法对调查结果进行归纳处理,从而确立了一个水库鱼产力影响因素诸层次各方面的评价指标权重体系,可供今后的评价工作参考使用。  相似文献