Quantifying barriers to decarbonization of the Russian economy: real options analysis of investment risks in low-carbon technologies     

Alexander Golub  Oleg Lugovoy  Vladimir Potashnikov 《Climate Policy》2019,19(6):716-724

Russia has significant potential for reducing its carbon emissions. However, investment in new low-carbon technologies has significant risks. Ambiguous energy and climate policy in Russia, along with deterioration of the country's investment climate, create investment barriers that are well described in qualitative terms in the literature. This paper attempts to provide a quantitative analysis of these barriers. For this numerical experiment, we apply the RU-TIMES model. Using a real options methodology, we estimate the risk-adjusted cost of capital in the Russian energy sector (including energy production and consumption technologies represented in the TIMES framework) to be approximately 43% (including a risk-free interest rate) and demonstrate the high risk of investment into energy-efficient and low-carbon technologies. Any future low-carbon emissions pathway depends on the ability of the Russian government to reduce climate and energy policy uncertainties, and to reduce financial risks through improvements of the general investment climate.

Key policy insights

• The high cost of capital investment into Russian energy production and consumption may prevent the adoption of new energy-efficient and low-carbon technologies.

• These investment risks, if not addressed, will delay Russia's low-carbon transition for the coming decades.

• Adopting a clear and unambiguous long-term climate and energy policy is important to reduce these risks and alleviate some of the barriers to the new technologies.

• The first step could be ratification of the Paris Agreement and adoption of a long-term emission target for the period up to 2050.

  相似文献   

Rodinia超大陆裂谷裂陷高潮与裂-坳转换:来自塔里木西北缘阿克苏地区碎屑锆石的制约     

刘博  张文高  陈正乐  袁峰  韩凤彬  霍海龙  李季霖 《地质学报》2021,95(8):2361-2379

阿克苏地区位于塔里木地块西北缘,是研究Rodinia超大陆裂谷裂解过程的关键地区.在阿克苏地区裂谷序列中,发育有不整合面.通过对阿克苏地区巧恩布拉克组、尤尔美那克组和苏盖特布拉克组碎屑锆石的LA-ICP-MS U-Pb年龄测定,对Rodinia超大陆裂谷期不整合面的形成时间、不整合面上下地层的物源变化以及不整合面的构造意义进行了讨论.碎屑锆石测年结果显示:尤尔美那克组于708 Ma后开始沉积,苏盖特布拉克组于577 Ma后开始沉积,被剥蚀的阿克苏群为尤尔美那克组和苏盖特布拉克组提供了局部物源.结合前人资料分析表明:①巧恩布拉克组与尤尔美那克组之间角度不整合面形成于717～708 Ma之间,苏盖特布拉克组与下伏地层间不整合面形成于580～577 Ma之间;②阿克苏地区724～717 Ma之间发生了一次幕式裂陷作用,这次幕式裂陷作用可能代表了 Rodinia超大陆裂谷裂陷期的高潮;③苏盖特布拉克组与下伏地层间不整合面是Rodinia超大陆裂谷裂-坳转换界面,这个界面时限为580～577 Ma;④"雪球地球"事件显著地促进了不整合面形成时的剥蚀作用,巧恩布拉克组与尤尔美那克组之间的角度不整合面、苏盖特布拉克组与下伏地层之间的不整合面的形成分别受到了 Sturtian冰期、Gaskiers冰期的影响.在本文中,不仅阿克苏地区裂谷期不整合面的成因机制得到了探讨,也一并完善了阿克苏地区裂谷的演化模式.  相似文献   

皋兰山红黏土-黄土记录的上新世-更新世转型期C3/C4植被演化     

李孟  彭廷江  韩冰雁  郭本泓  李小苗  马振华  冯展涛  宋春晖 《冰川冻土》2021,43(3):798-808

上新世-更新世转型是上新世温暖气候向更新世冰期-间冰期旋回过渡的重要时段,与此同时,青藏高原的强烈隆升也深刻改变了高原及周边地区的地貌格局和生态环境面貌。因此,开展青藏高原东北缘地区上新世-更新世转型期的古气候变化研究是理解地球各圈层相互作用的重要切入点。而兰州盆地地处中国三大自然区的衔接位置,对气候变化和构造活动响应较为敏感,是探讨构造-气候-生态相互作用的理想区域。以兰州皋兰山红黏土-黄土岩芯为研究对象,在已有黄土高精度磁性地层年代学基础上,综合开展了有机碳同位素和长链正构烷烃碳同位素分析,重建了西部黄土高原上新世-更新世转型期（3.0~2.2 Ma）的C₃/C₄植被相对丰度演化历史。结果表明：皋兰山上新世-更新世转型期风成沉积中正构烷烃多以C₃₁为主峰的单峰模式,可能指示了草本植被的主要贡献。而典型黄土层位（L32和L33）的正构烷烃多呈现微生物降解的双鼓包模式,表明饱和烃受外源输入影响。综合对比常规指标、总有机碳和长链正构烷烃碳同位素后认为,皋兰山底部黄土的总有机碳同位素不能直接用于重建区域C₃/C₄植被演化。长链正构烷烃碳同位素研究表明：在3.0~2.2 Ma时期,皋兰山古生态整体以C₃植被为主;C₄植被扩张发生在3.0 Ma之前,3.0~2.9 Ma发生C₄植被快速减少事件,初步推测这可能与降温有关。  相似文献   

Coordinated Exploration Model and its Application to Coal and Coal-associated Deposits in Coal Basins of China     

WANG Tong  SUN Jie  LIN Zhongyue  FANG Huiming  WANG Yue  LIU Yifen 《《地质学报》英文版》2021,95(4):1346-1356

China is a top world producer of coal resources with numerous coal-rich basins country-wide that also contain coalbed methane(CBM), an unconventional natural gas resource. Recent exploration of coal and CBM resources has also led to the discovery of rare, precious, and scattered metal minerals, including sandstone-type U and Ga–Ge–Li. High-grade and industrial-value deposits have been discovered in the Ordos, Junggar, and other basins across China during exploration for coal resources. Application of coordinated exploration theories and techniques in multiple energy and coal-associated ore deposits, such as coal and unconventional natural gas in coal, achieves efficient and practical exploration of natural resources. Based on the systematic study of accumulation and occurrence of coal and coal-associated mineral resources in coal basins, the basic idea of coordinated exploration for coal and coal-associated deposits is proposed, and multi-targets and multi-methods based on a coordinated exploration model of coal-associated deposits is developed. Coordinated exploration expands the main exploration objective from coal seams to coal-associated series, extending the exploration target from targeting coal only to coal-associated deposits. Entrance times for exploration are decreased to realize coordinated exploration for coal, unconventional natural gas and syngenetic/associated mineral resources in coal by implementing a 'one-time approach' ―one time in and out of a coal seam to minimize disturbance and time needed for extraction. According to the differences of geological background in China's coal basins, four coordinated exploration model types, including co-exploration of coal and coal-associated unconventional natural gas, coal and solid minerals, coal and metal minerals, and coal with water resources are established. Other models discussed include a multi-target coordinated exploration model for the combination of coal, coal-associated gas, solid minerals, and metal minerals accordingly. The exploration techniques of coal and coal-associated resources include regional geological investigation and research and synthetic application of other techniques including seismic surveys, drilling, logging, and geochemical exploration. Particularly, applying the 'multi-purpose drill hole' or reworking coalfield drill holes into parameter wells, adding sample testing and logging wells, determining gas-bearing layers by logging and gas content measurement, jointly measuring multiple logging parameters, sampling, and testing of coal-strata help in the exploration and evaluation of coal resources, coal-associated unconventional natural gas resources, and coal-associated element minerals. Accordingly, a system of integrated Space–Air–Ground exploration techniques for coordinated exploration of coal and coal-associated minerals is established. This includes high-resolution, hyperspectral remote-sensing technique, high-precision geophysical exploration and fast, precise drilling, testing of experimental samples, as well as coordinated exploration and determination methods of multi-target factors, multi-exploration means, multi-parameter configuration and optimization, big data fusions and interpretation techniques. In recent years, the application of this integrated system has brought significant breakthroughs in coal exploration in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang and other provinces, discovering several large, ten-billionton coalfields, such as the Eastern Junggar and Tuha basins, and also in exploration and development of CBM from lowrank coals in Fukang, Xinjiang, discovery the Daying U Deposit in Inner Mongolia, the Junggar Ultralarge Ga Deposit, Lincang, Yunnan, and the Wulantuga, Inner Mongolia, Ge-bearing coal deposits, and the Pingshuo Ultralarge Li–Ge Deposit.  相似文献   

Contributions of trans-magmatic fluid in the formation of porphyry copper deposits: A case study from the Baoshan deposit,South China     

Tianyang Hu  Lei Liu  Weijian Zhou  Yongjun Shao  Huan Li  Zhongfa Liu  Liang Cao  Guofeng Xu  Jiaxian Li 《Chemie der Erde / Geochemistry》2022,82(2):125881

The classical mechanism “source-transport-storage” of the formation of porphyry copper deposit has been advanced in recent studies, as the “source” is not the main factor for the mineralization in some Cu deposits, and the metallogeny may be affected by other variables factors during the magma-fluid transportation or storage. We recommend the essential role of trans-magmatic fluid in the ore-forming process, this fluid is released from the melting of the sedimentary overlying the subducted plate with high water and volatiles concentrations and high oxygen fugacity. The Baoshan granodioritic cryptoexplosion breccia representing the influence of hydrothermal events as well as the unaltered Baoshan granodiorite porphyry are conducted by LA-MC-ICP-MS analysis, to identify the contribution of trans-magmatic fluid. In case of the ε_Nd(t) of whole rock do not increase with the MgO increasing and SiO₂ decreasing, the large variations of zircons ε_Hf(t) values in Baoshan granodiorite porphyry (BGP, ?14.24 to ?6.38) and Baoshan granodioritic crypto-explosion breccia (BGCB, ?25.24 to ?6.62) were considered to be the interaction of partial melting of ancient mafic lower crust and Neoproterozoic juvenile crust. However, the copper mineralization requires high oxygen fugacity and a large amount of water, according to the tectonic settings of Baoshan, we recommend that it is the trans-magmatic fluid trapping and concentrating Cu from the whole pluton during the upwelling driven by magma convection. The initial magma was stalled by the ductile-brittle transition at shallow depths of upper-crust. The trans-magmatic fluid leads to the pressure increases at the top of the initial magma, then the overlying rock is ruptured and cryptoexplosion produced. Moreover, after the cryptoexplosion, the sudden reduction of circumference temperature and pressure leads to the decrease in the oxygen fugacity of the ore-forming system, which will change the valence state of sulfur from S⁶⁺ to S^2?. Finally, sulfur precipitates with chalcophile elements like copper in the metallogenic system and forms porphyry copper deposits with the low Sr/Y ratio. This study highlights the use of trans-magmatic fluid and ductile-brittle transition in the formation of the Baoshan porphyry copper deposits.  相似文献   

曲流河扇相模式及应用     

张金亮 《地质论评》2022,68(2):408-430

分支河流体系的讨论有助于促进各类冲积体系的分类学研究,并可促进源—汇体系分析的定量化。博茨瓦纳的奥卡万戈（Okavango）曲流河扇是分支河流体系的典型代表,具有独特的沉积学、水文学和地貌学特征,主要特点如下：①河道形态属于单线曲流河道向下游分叉型,顺流方向产生弯度不一的分支河道网络,从顶点向下游方向,河道呈放射状,由河谷内的限制性河道变为盆地内的非限制性河道;②顺斜坡向下,河道分叉作用增强,河道的尺度和规模减小,受物源控制,无论是曲流河道还是低弯度河道,皆为砂质载荷,河道宽度、水体深度和沉积物粒度虽有系统变化但不显著,且在极低的坡度控制下,随着流量的减少,河道由曲流河逐渐变为低弯度河,河道形态转化的主要影响因素是坡度、流量、沉积物粒级和河岸强度;③根据湿地和河道分布特征,可将扇体划分为补给河谷、近源扇、中部扇和远端扇4个亚环境：补给河谷以单线曲流带和不同规模的迂回坝发育为特征,近源扇主要为泥炭限制的分支河道和河间沼泽沉积,中部扇主要为曲流河和低弯度河沉积,沼泽减少,漫滩增加,远端扇为宽浅型的非限定性河道,以沙岛林地之间的漫滩沉积为主;④沉积物主要为未固结的石英砂,主要来源于卡拉哈里盆地近代风成沉积,砂质纯净,分选和磨圆俱佳,缺乏细粒杂基,粒间细粒组分主要为生物成因的硅藻、植硅石和有机物质,亦见有方解石和二氧化硅胶结物。  对现代曲流河扇体系进行调查的重要目的就是研究地下类似沉积体系的分布。通过对我国大型含油气盆地相关“内陆三角洲”沉积特征和沉积规律的重新认识,可为油气资源的勘探开发提供预测模式。鄂尔多斯盆地山西组沉积时期,沉积作用受盆地北缘物源控制,来自北部物源的碎屑物质在宽阔的湿地平原上发育了多套分支河流沉积体系,主要为曲流河扇沉积体系。顺着沉积斜坡向下,河道的尺度和规模减小,沉积物粒度变细,煤层和暗色泥岩厚度变小,缺乏明显的三角洲前缘沉积环境及稳定的前三角洲深水相。沉积组合主要表现为分支河道砂岩、漫岸细粒沉积与湿地泥岩及薄煤层的互层,为大气田的形成奠定了沉积基础。  相似文献   

基于转移概率地质统计的淮南顾桥矿区松散层含水介质刻画     

邓辉  马雷  高迪  赵卫东  杨曼 《现代地质》2022,36(2):602-609

含水介质的空间分布及其非均质性对地下水流和溶质运移有着重要的影响。以淮南顾桥矿区作为研究对象,为了刻画矿区松散层含水介质的空间分布,使用转移概率地质统计方法建立含水介质的随机模型,对矿区水文地质结构的空间连续性和空间变异性进行表征;并将随机模拟得到的顾桥矿区含水介质剖面图与矿区原始水文地质剖面进行对比。结果表明,基于转移概率地质统计模拟方法可以比较准确地刻画矿区的水文地质结构;模拟剖面与原始水文地质剖面的比较显示模拟结果与实际含水介质空间分布情况有较好的一致性,转移概率地质统计方法在对含水介质非均质性刻画中具有较好的适用性。  相似文献   

Variable character and diverse origin of hybrid event beds in a sandy submarine fan system,Pennsylvanian Ross Sandstone Formation,western Ireland     

《Sedimentology》2018,65(3):952-992

Hybrid event beds comprising both clean and mud‐rich sandstone are important components of many deep‐water systems and reflect the passage of turbulent sediment gravity flows with zones of clay‐damped or suppressed turbulence. ‘Behind‐outcrop’ cores from the Pennsylvanian deep‐water Ross Sandstone Formation reveal hybrid event beds with a wide range of expression in terms of relative abundance, character and inferred origin. Muddy hybrid event beds first appear in the underlying Clare Shale Formation where they are interpreted as the distal run‐out of the wakes to flows which deposited most of their sand up‐dip before transforming to fluid mud. These are overlain by unusually thick (up to 4·4 m), coarse sandy hybrid event beds (89% of the lowermost Ross Formation by thickness) that record deposition from outsized flows in which transformations were driven by both substrate entrainment in the body of the flow and clay fractionation in the wake. A switch to dominantly fine‐grained sand was accompanied initially by the arrest of turbulence‐damped, mud‐rich flows with evidence for transitional flow conditions and thick fluid mud caps. The mid and upper Ross Formation contain metre‐scale bed sets of hybrid event beds (21 to 14%, respectively) in (i) upward‐sandying bed set associations immediately beneath amalgamated sheet or channel elements; (ii) stacked thick‐bedded and thin‐bedded hybrid event bed‐dominated bed sets; (iii) associations of hybrid event bed‐dominated bed sets alternating with conventional turbidites; and (iv) rare outsized hybrid event beds. Hybrid event bed dominance in the lower Ross Formation may reflect significant initial disequilibrium, a bias towards large‐volume flows in distal sectors of the basin, extensive mud‐draped slopes and greater drop heights promoting erosion. Higher in the formation, hybrid event beds record local perturbations related to channel switching, lobe relocations and extension of channels across the fan surface. The Ross Sandstone Formation confirms that hybrid event beds can form in a variety of ways, even in the same system, and that different flow transformation mechanisms may operate even during the passage of a single flow.  相似文献   

Regional thermo-rheological field related to granite emplacement in the upper crust: implications for the Larderello area (Tuscany,Italy)     

Federica Rochira  Alfredo Caggianelli  Salvatore de Lorenzo 《Geodinamica Acta》2018,30(1):225-240

We modelled thermo-rheological perturbations, related to the emplacement of a magmatic body in the upper crust. This approach was considered relevant for the areas characterized by elevated surface heat flow and chiefly for the geothermal fields. The numerical conductive thermal model applied to the Larderello geothermal area in Tuscany, allowed to constrain size, depth and timing of emplacement of the pluton. We inferred that the emplacement of a magmatic body, at a minimum depth of 3 km, having a horizontal extension of 14 km and a maximum thickness of 8 km, can reasonably reproduce the observed regional surface heat flow anomaly of the Larderello area, when 300 (± 100) kyr are elapsed from the magma emplacement. Even assuming an incremental growth, the first magma injection should not be older than 1 ± 0.3 Ma.

Results of the thermal model were used to set up a rheological model and to simulate the drifting of the brittle-ductile transition during the cooling of the pluton. A comparison with the K-horizon profile, a prominent seismic reflector in the Larderello area, was then performed. It was found that the K-horizon approximately corresponds with the pluton roof and with the current location of the brittle-ductile transition.  相似文献   

Orientation,composition, and entrapment conditions of fluid inclusions in the footwall of the northern Snake Range detachment,Nevada     

《Journal of Structural Geology》2015

Footwall rocks of the northern Snake Range detachment fault (Hampton and Hendry's Creeks) offer exposures of quartzite mylonites (sub-horizontal foliation) that were permeated by surface fluids. An S–C–C′ mylonitic fabric is defined by dynamically recrystallized quartz and mica. Electron backscatter diffraction analyses indicate a strong preferred orientation of quartz that is overprinted by two sets of sub-vertical, ESE and NNE striking fractures. Analyses of sets of three perpendicular thin sections indicate that fluid inclusions (FIs) are arranged according to macroscopic fracture patterns. FIs associated with NNE and ESE-striking fractures coevally trapped unmixed CO₂ and H₂O-rich fluids at conditions near the critical CO₂–H₂O solvus, giving minimum trapping conditions of T = 175–200 °C and ∼100 MPa H₂O-rich FIs trapped along ESE-trending microcracks in single crystals of quartz may have been trapped at conditions as low as 150 °C and 50 MPa indicating the latest microfracturing and annealing of quartz in an overall extensional system. Results suggest that the upper crust was thin (4–8 km) during FI trapping and had an elevated geotherm (>50 °C/km). Footwall rocks that have been exhumed through the brittle-ductile transition in such extensional systems experience both brittle and crystal-plastic deformation that may allow for circulation of meteoric fluids and grain-scale fluid–rock interactions.  相似文献