Progress in Lightning Forecast by Using Numerical Weather Models and Model Outputs     

Wang Haoliang  Liu Yubao  Zhao Tianliang  Guo Fengxia  Feng Shuanglei  Wang Bo 《地球科学进展》2017,32(1):44-55

Lightning can threaten human and equipment safety. An indicator of sever convective weather, it plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry. The intensive studies have advanced the lightning forecast in the mesoscale weather models and its application in global climate models. There are three methods to forecast lightning by using numerical weather models: Numerical diagnosis prediction based on synoptic background filed statistical relations; Flash rate parameterization developed with the relationship between dynamical, microphysical and electrification processes, and The numerical weather model coupled with the explicit electrification and lightning parameterization schemes. In this paper, the research progress in lightning forecast with three above-mentioned methods were reviewed, and the future research issues on lightning forecast were also discussed.  相似文献   

SIS海冰模式中两种盐度参数化方案的差异          下载免费PDF全文

王庆元  李清泉  王兰宁 《极地研究》2010,22(1):23-32

详细介绍了Sea Ice Simulator(SIS)海冰模式中引进两种盐度参数化方案即等盐度方案和盐度廓线方案对海冰模拟所存在的差异。利用盐度廓线方案导出的表征盐度与海冰温度间关系的方程比等盐度方案多出一项,将该项定义为盐度差异项。盐度差异项对海冰厚度的热力作用表现为:在海冰厚度增长季节(11月到次年5月),盐度差异项通过升高海冰内部温度,抑制海冰增长;在消融的第一阶段(6—8月),盐度差异项通过升高海冰内部温度加快海冰消融;在消融的第二阶段(9—10月),盐度差异项通过降低海冰内部的温度抑制海冰消融。但尺度分析表明,盐度差异项要比方程中对海冰温度作用最大项小1—2个量级,如果采用一级近似,可以略去盐度差异项,因此盐度差异项对与海冰增长和消融影响很小。同时利用GFDL中心研制的冰-洋耦合模式Modular Ocean Model(MOM4),分别采用两种盐度参数化方案模拟北极海冰厚度和海冰密集度的季节性变化,模拟结果也表明两种方案模拟得到的海冰厚度和海冰密集度的季节性变化相差甚小。  相似文献   

一种陆面过程模式对径流的模拟研究   总被引：8，自引：4，他引：4  

苏凤阁  郝振纯 《气候与环境研究》2002,7(4):423-432

径流在陆面模式水量平衡计算中占有重要地位,它不但与土壤水的动态变化有关,而且会影响感热、潜热等其他通量的计算结果.作者针对陆面过程模式AVIM(Atmosphere VegetationInteraction Model)对产流描述的不足,改进模式中对径流的参数化方法.并将改进后的模式用于内蒙古的锡林河流域,以检验模式对径流的模拟能力.1991～1994年的径流模拟结果表明,改进后的模式对径流的模拟有较好的改善.  相似文献   

不同深对流参数化方案在降水预报中的比较试验     

顾建峰 《气象》1999,25(4):39-44

分析表明,海南岛冬半年日际气温的变化幅度很大,平均气温很难表征海南岛冬季“冷”的气候特征,从冬季农作物生长角度出发,统计海南岛发生低温冷害的气候概率,提出海南岛存在“相对的冬季”。进一步,引进“冷指数”替代平均气温来表征海南岛冬季的“冷”。对冷指数的主成分分析表明：（１）以五指山脉为界,海南岛南、北两区在冬季存在的冷暖差异,山北地区发生低温冷害的气候概率明显大于山南地区,这正是五指山脉对冷空气的抬  相似文献   

A field‐based parameterization of wind flow recovery in the lee of dryland plants          下载免费PDF全文

Jerome R. Mayaud  Giles F.S. Wiggs  Richard M. Bailey 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2017,42(2):378-386

Wind erosion is a key component of land degradation in vulnerable dryland regions. Despite a wealth of studies investigating the impact of vegetation and windbreaks on windflow in controlled wind‐tunnel and modelling environments, there is still a paucity of empirical field data for accurately parameterizing the effect of vegetation in wind and sediment transport models. The aim of this study is to present a general parameterization of wind flow recovery in the lee of typical dryland vegetation elements (grass clumps and shrubs), based on their height (h ) and optical porosity (θ ). Spatial variations in mean wind velocity around eight isolated vegetation elements in Namibia (three grass clumps and five shrubs) were recorded at 0.30 m height, using a combination of sonic and cup anemometry sampled at a temporal frequency of 10 seconds. Wind flow recovery in the lee of the elements was parameterized in an exponential form, . The best‐fit parameters derived from the field data were u ₀ = u _ref(0.0146θ ? 0.4076) and b = 0.0105θ + 0.1627 . By comparing this parameterization to existing models, it is shown that wind recovery curves derived from two‐dimensional wind fence experiments may not be suitable analogues for describing airflow around more complex, three‐dimensional forms. Field‐derived parameterizations such as the one presented here are a crucial step for connecting plant‐scale windflow behaviour to dryland bedform development at landscape scales. © 2016 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.  相似文献   

The CREp program and the ICE-D production rate calibration database: A fully parameterizable and updated online tool to compute cosmic-ray exposure ages     

《Quaternary Geochronology》2017

Over the last decades, cosmogenic exposure dating has permitted major advances in many fields of Earth surface sciences and particularly in paleoglaciology. Yet, exposure age calculation remains a complicated and dense procedure. It requires numerous choices of parameterization and the use of an accurate production rate.This study describes the CREp program (http://crep.crpg.cnrs-nancy.fr) and the ICE-D production rate online database (http://calibration.ice-d.org). This system is designed so that the CREp calculator will automatically reflect the current state of this global calibration database production rate, ICE-D. ICE-D will be regularly updated in order to incorporate new calibration data and reflect the current state of the available literature.CREp is a Octave/Matlab^© online code that computes Cosmic Ray Exposure (CRE) ages for ³He and ¹⁰Be. A stand-alone version of the CREp code is also released with the present article. Note however that only the online version is connected to the online database ICE-D. The CREp program offers the possibility to calculate ages with two scaling models: i.e. the empirical Lal-Stone time-dependent model (Balco et al., 2008; Lal, 1991; Stone, 2000) with the muon parameters of Braucher et al. (2011), and the Lifton-Sato-Dunai (LSD) theoretical model (Lifton et al., 2014). The default atmosphere model is the ERA-40 database (Uppala et al., 2005), but one may also use the standard atmosphere for comparison (N.O.A.A, 1976). To perform the time-dependent correction, users may import their own geomagnetic database for paleomagnetic corrections or opt for one of the three proposed datasets (Lifton, 2016; Lifton et al., 2014; Muscheler et al., 2005).For the important choice of the production rate, CREp is linked to a database of production rate calibration data that is part of the ICE-D (Informal Cosmogenic-nuclide Exposure-age Database) project (http://calibration.ice-d.org). This database includes published empirical calibration rate studies that are publicly available at present, comprising those of the CRONUS-Earth and CRONUS-EU projects, as well as studies from other projects. In the present study, the efficacy of the different scaling models has also been evaluated looking at the statistical dispersion of the computed Sea Level High Latitude (SLHL) production rates. Lal/Stone and LSD models have comparable efficacies, and the impact of the tested atmospheric model and the geomagnetic database is also limited.Users however have several possibilities to select the production rate: 1) using a worldwide mean value, 2) a regionally averaged value (not available in regions with no data), 3) a local unique value, which can be chosen among the existing dataset or imported by the user, or 4) any combination of multiple calibration data.If a global mean is chosen, the 1σ uncertainty arising from the production rate is about 5% for ¹⁰Be and 10% for ³He. If a regional production rate is picked, these uncertainties are potentially lower.CREp is able to calculate a large number of ages in a reasonable time (typically < 30 s for 50 samples). The user may export a summary table of the computed ages and the density probability function associated with each age (in the form of a spreadsheet).  相似文献   

云微物理参数化对华北降雪影响的数值模拟   总被引：7，自引：3，他引：7  

林文实  李江南  樊琦  吴池胜  古志明  孟金平  布和朝鲁 《高原气象》2007,26(1):107-115

对发生在华北地区的一次降雪过程进行了中尺度数值模拟。结果表明,高纬强冷空气南下和低纬倒槽的水汽输送是造成这次长时间降雪过程的主要原因。采用混合方案的中尺度数值模拟表明,这次降雪天气不是对流云造成的,而是稳定性的非对流云降雪。敏感性试验也表明,采用其他积云参数化方案对模拟的降雪量基本没有影响。控制试验模拟的24h降雪量与实际观测比较吻合。模拟结果表明,当采用Dudhia简单冰相方案时,会有过多的云冰、过冷却水及雪;当采用Reisner 1混合相方案时,会有过多的云冰和雪;修改的各个Reisner 2方案对此次降雪的预报改进不大,但各个Reisner 2方案的敏感性试验中云冰混合比、过冷却水混合比和雪混合比稍微有差异。  相似文献   

六种近地层湍流动量输送系数计算方案对比分析          下载免费PDF全文

胡艳冰高志球  沙文钰肖涛 高超 《应用气象学报》2007,18(3):407-411

选取30多年来近地层湍流通量研究中具有代表性的六种参数化方案, 应用GAME/Tibet试验中那曲通量观测站的实测资料, 对比分析了各方案计算所得的湍流动量输送系数 (C_M) 之间的差异。结果表明:六种参数化方案计算得到的湍流动量输送系数之间存在较大差异。对于那曲观测站稀疏短草下垫面而言, 稳定条件下当理查孙数小于0.1时, 除Businger71方案存在显著低估以外, 其他各方案均能较好估算湍流动量输送系数; 不稳定条件下, Dyer74方案对湍流动量输送系数的估算效果最好, 其次为Wang02, Launiainen95和Louis82方案, Businger71方案误差较大。  相似文献   

北京冬季城市边界层结构形成机制的初步数值研究   总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6  

李晓莉  毕宝贵  李泽椿 《气象学报》2005,63(6):889-902

利用耦合了城市冠层参数化方案的MM5模式对2001年冬季北京地区一次典型的城市边界层过程进行成功模拟的基础上,对北京城市化作用、周边地形以及城市化进程发展对城市边界层结构的影响等问题进行了一系列的数值模拟试验。城市化作用的因子分离试验发现,城市化的总体作用即城市下垫面结构对大气热力及动力的综合影响导致了北京冬季城市边界层结构主要特征的形成。此外,揭示了城市结构的不同影响因子———动力因子、热力因子和热动力因子间的相互作用在北京冬季城市边界层结构形成和演变过程中的不同作用。在夜间,城市结构的动力因子对于城市边界层主要特征如市区悬浮逆温、近地层中小的风速及较强的湍流动能等的形成起着主导作用;在白天,城市结构的热力因子则成为影响市区混合层强度以及湍流运动特征等边界层结构的主导因素;热、动力因子间的相互作用对城市边界层结构的形成和演变也有着重要作用,但其影响特征比较复杂。北京周边地形作用的敏感性试验的结果表明,北京周边的特殊地形条件对城市边界层热力结构特征如悬浮逆温层及城市热岛等的结构及分布特征的形成也有着明显的影响,使其具有特殊的局地化特征,同时,它也是北京地区近地层主要气流特征的强迫源。不同城市化程度的敏感性试验结果揭示,随着北京城市建筑高度和密度的增加,市区风速将减小、湍流动能将加强,夜间城市悬浮逆温层底的高度会有所提高,城市热岛的强度也将加强,并可能在白天出现比较明显的城市热岛效应。  相似文献   

全球海洋模式对CFC-11分布的初步模拟研究   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3  

李阳春  徐永福  赵亮  王明星 《大气科学》2006,30(4):671-681

使用中国科学院大气物理研究所(IAP)三十层全球海洋模式(L30T63)研究了CFC-11在全球海洋中的吸收和分布,初步讨论了决定其分布特征的可能因素.该模式采用自由表面结构和Gent-McWilliams中尺度示踪物参数化方案.通过对控制试验得到的CFC-11模拟结果分析可知,CFC-11海表浓度受温度影响显著,其分布形状大致与温度相似,但梯度相反.通量的分布受温度影响很大,且表现出很明显的季节变化特征,如不饱和区一般出现在冬季海区的中层水形成处或者强对流混合存在的区域.另外,对CFC-11的模拟结果与三个大洋的五个断面航测资料做了对比,发现模拟结果与观测资料吻合较好,能比较清楚地反映CFC-11输送与等密度面垂直分布以及环流场的密切关系,如在南大洋50°S以北至35°S以南等密度面的向下加深区是CFC-11的主要贮存区等.与大多数前人的工作相比,该模拟结果较好地反映了CFC-11在南大洋的分布特征.从这些反映出该模式对于大洋十年尺度物质交换与海洋内部输送的模拟是比较准确的.  相似文献