Changes of Snow Cover Thickness Measured by Conventional Mass Balance Methods and by Global Positioning System Surveying     

Wilfred H. Theakstone  Frank M. Jacobsen  & N. Tvis Knudsen 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》1999,81(4):767-776

The most labour-intensive and time-consuming part of many mass balance programmes is the acquisition of snow depth data. The standard technique, which involves probing the snow cover at intervals along a series of profiles, generally by an individual on skis, may involve more than 300 discrete measurements along a total of more than 20 km of profiling at a single glacier. Kinematic surveying with a global positioning system (GPS) in differential mode provides much more information about changes of glacier surface level and snow thickness between surveys. The positions of a large number of points can be fixed in a relatively short time by GPS surveying, and the technique is usable in adverse weather conditions. With real-time kinematic GPS surveying, it is possible to return to the same positions (longitude, latitude) during successive field programmes, and a previously followed route can be retraced precisely. GPS surveying facilitates the production of accurate glacier maps for mass balance programmes. Data obtained by snow depth probing and GPS surveying in 1995 at Austre Okstindbreen, the largest glacier of the Okstindan area, Norway (66°N), indicate that repeated GPS surveys are likely to provide a large amount of information on withinyear and between-year changes of surface topography and are not subject to the errors in mass balance calculations which arise from probing snow depths along selected profiles. Kinematic GPS surveying of several glaciers within an area would overcome the difficulties arising when mass balance studies are confined to a single glacier within a particular area.  相似文献   

气候变化对沅江流域径流影响研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

陈喜  苏布达  姜彤  施雅风 《湖泊科学》2003,15(Z1):115-122

温室气体排放量增加造成气候变化,对全球资源环境产生重要影响.本文在水量平衡基础上,建立考虑气象要素和地形变化的月水文模型,利用实测径流资料对模型在时空尺度上进行验证.利用全球气候模型(GCMs)预测的未来气候变化情形,对处于湿润区的沅江流域径流过程进行预测.分析结果表明,该区域径流过程对降雨和气温变化十分敏感.根据英国Hadcm2模型对本世纪中叶气候变化预测结果,沅江流域未来年降雨量减少0.43%气温升高1.55℃,丰水期降雨增加,而枯水期将有较大幅度减少.年径流量相应减少6.8%,丰水期径流量增大11%,枯水期径流减少47%,不利于防洪和水资源开发利用.  相似文献   

SCE-UA方法在新安江模型参数优化中的应用   总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9  

HapuarachchiH.A.P.  李致家  王寿辉 《湖泊科学》2001,13(4):304-314

以前在使用新安江模型时人们遇到的最大困难可归因于缺乏有效的参数全局优化的数学方法,事实上对于一个缺乏经验的人来说,模型参数的人工试错计算的过程是一个相当不容易的过程,并且耗时颇多,为此,近些年来研究者们正在探索把概念性水文模型中的专家经验与自动优化计算相结合的方法或者数学优化中的全局优化方法,如SEC-UA方法,本文首先简述新安江模型,而后采用3个大小和气候条件各不相同的流域对SCE-UA算法就在新安江模型计算的参数优化进行了研究,研究结果表明,SCE-UA算法用来进行新安江模型的参数优化所取得的效果是好的,从率定和检验的结果来看,SCE-UA算法可以使得率定的新安江模型的参数达到全局最优并且从概念上也合理。  相似文献   

紧致的Hilbert曲线Gray码索引算法     

曹雪峰  万刚  张宗佩 《测绘学报》2016,45(Z1):90-98

Hilbert曲线具有良好的聚簇性,使其成为设计全球立体网格多维数据索引的重要工具。但当数据集在不同维度上的分布密度存在较大差异时,常规Hilbert曲线索引会出现大量的冗余。对此,本文基于Gray码推导分析了Hilbert曲线索引的构造特点,进而设计实现了紧致Hilbert曲线索引算法,在保持Hilbert曲线良好聚簇性的同时,避免了数据维度分布差异带来的索引冗余问题。试验结果表明,相比常规Hilbert索引,紧致Hilbert曲线索引计算复杂度相当,在实例数据测试中编码耗时减少约40%,索引存储空间减少约46%,排序速度约为Hilbert排序的4.3倍。  相似文献   

Parameterization of the Ångström–Prescott formula based on machine learning benefit estimation of reference crop evapotranspiration with missing solar radiation data     

Shang Chen  Wenzhe Feng  Liang He  Wei Xiao  Hao Feng  Qiang Yu  Jiandong Liu  Jianqiang He 《水文研究》2024,38(2):e15091

Accurately estimated reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) is essential to regional water management. The FAO recommends coupling the Penman–Monteith (P-M) model with the Ångström–Prescott (A-P) formula as the standard method for ET₀ estimation with missing R_s measurements. However, its application is usually restricted by the two fundamental coefficients (a and b) of the A-P formula. This paper proposes a new method for estimating ET₀ with missing R_s by combining machine learning with physical-based P-M models (PM-ET₀). The benchmark values of the A-P coefficients were first determined at the daily, monthly, and yearly scales, and further evaluated in R_s and ET₀ estimates at 80 national R_s measuring stations. Then, three empirical models and four machine-learning methods were evaluated in estimating the A-P coefficients. Machine learning methods were also used to estimate ET₀ (ML-ET₀) to compare with the PM-ET₀. Finally, the optimal estimation method was used to estimate the A-P coefficients for the 839 regular weather stations for ET₀ estimation without R_s measurement for China. The results demonstrated a descending trend for coefficient a from northwest to southeast China, with larger values in cold seasons. However, coefficient b showed the opposite distribution as the coefficient a. The FAO has recommended a larger a but a smaller b for southeast China, which produced the region's largest R_s and ET₀ estimation errors. Additionally, the A-P coefficients calibrated at the daily scale obtained the best estimation accuracy for both R_s and ET₀, and slightly outperformed the monthly and yearly coefficients without significant difference in most cases. The machine learning methods outperformed the empirical methods for estimating the A-P coefficients, especially for the sites with extreme values. Further, ML-ET₀ outperformed the PM-ET₀ with yearly A-P coefficients but underperformed those with daily and monthly ones. This study indicates an exciting potential for combining machine learning with physical models for estimating ET₀. However, we found that using the A-P coefficients with finer time scales is unnecessary to deal with the missing R_s measurements.  相似文献   

15万年以来极地冰芯、黄土、深海沉积的对比研究与全球变化          下载免费PDF全文

康建成  温家洪 《极地研究》1997,9(2):55-65

由极地冰芯记录、中纬黄土记录和深海沉积记录的对比可得，１５万年以来全球变化的基本框架为：末次间冰期，从距今１４万年开始到约１２．５万年达鼎盛，可分为五个阶段，即冰芯中三次高温期夹两次低温期；黄土中三层古土壤夹两层黄土；深海沉积中三次高海面夹两次低海面。末次冰期，距今８万年到１万年，可分为三个阶段，早、晚冰段和中间的间冰段。早、晚冰段盛期气候寒冷程度相当，但晚冰段最低温持续期更长，造成海面比早期更低。中间的间冰段，至少可分为７个亚段，即４次暖期（４次弱成土古土壤）夹３次冷期。全新世与末次间冰期对比，总体气候变化较平缓。在上述基本框架中，近几年发现，在末次冰期存在许多短周期、高频快速变化事件。这些事件，温度变化幅度达７℃，变化速率为几年到几十年，对应的环境变化速率可能更快。这些事件的引发机理目前还不清楚，有待进一步研究。  相似文献   

全球变化背景下多尺度干旱过程及预测研究进展   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

袁星  马凤  李华  陈思思 《大气科学学报》2020,43(1):225-237

干旱是一种周期性的气候异常,主要受气候自然变率驱动,具有发展缓慢、持续时间长、影响范围广等特征。然而,气候变化使得干旱不仅有增加趋势,其特征也在发生变化。例如,发展迅速的干旱,也称骤旱,近年来频繁发生。此外,人类活动通过改变陆地水循环,直接或间接地影响干旱过程。在全球变化背景下,干旱机制研究由海-陆-气相互作用影响气象干旱的气候动力学研究扩展到包含干旱传递过程机理认识、考虑区域尺度人类活动影响,面向农业、水利、生态等行业的农业干旱和水文干旱研究,为认识干旱可预报性、发展预测方法带来了新的挑战。本文将针对多尺度干旱过程及预测,讨论相关的研究进展及未来发展方向。  相似文献   

GRAPES全球集合预报初始条件及模式物理过程不确定性方法研究   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

李晓莉  陈静  刘永柱  彭飞  霍振华 《大气科学学报》2019,42(3):348-359

为描述GRAPES全球模式初始条件的不确定性,基于适合集合预报应用的GRAPES全球奇异向量技术,依据大气初始误差符合正态分布的特征,采用高斯取样奇异向量来构造全球集合预报初始扰动,在此基础上建立了GRAPES全球集合预报系统(GRAPES-GEPS)。利用GRAPES全球同化分析场,对采用初始扰动的GRAPES-GEPS连续试验预报结果进行检验和分析。结果表明:GRAPES-GEPS中高度场、风场及温度场预报的集合离散度能有效快速增加,集合平均均方根误差与集合离散度的关系合理;相对控制预报的均方根误差,集合平均的预报优势在预报中期非常显著。为进一步体现GRAPES-GEPS中模式物理过程的不确定性,发展了模式物理过程倾向随机扰动技术(SPPT)。试验结果表明:SPPT方案的应用有效提高了GRAPES-GEPS在南、北半球和热带地区等压面要素预报的集合离散度,同时一定程度减小了集合平均误差,进而改进了集合平均误差与集合离散度的关系,其中SPPT方案在热带地区的改进最为显著。本文发展的基于奇异向量的初始扰动方法和模式扰动SPPT方案在中国气象局2018年12月业务化运行的GRAPES-GEPS中得到了应用。  相似文献   

全球海洋中Argo剖面浮标运行状况分析   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

孙朝辉  刘增宏  朱伯康  许建平 《海洋技术学报》2006,25(3):127-134

A rgo剖面浮标是A rgo全球海洋实时观测网建设中的主要观测设备。自2001年国际A rgo计划组织实施以来,世界上已经有22个国家和团体在全球海洋中陆续布放了3 000多个A rgo剖面浮标,它们的寿命和运行状况一直是人们重视和关心的问题,因为这关系到何时能够实现国际A rgo计划的最终目标,更重要的是,涉及到浮标的性能、资料的可靠性。文中就这些问题进行了探讨,希望能有助于关注者对A rgo全球海洋实时观测网的建设及运行情况有一比较全面的了解。  相似文献   

网络RTK中几种实用技术的分析比较   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

史先领  张书毕 《海洋测绘》2006,26(5):75-78

针对网络RTK中采用的几种技术作出详尽的论述,在理论分析的基础上对各种技术的优缺点进行了比较。认为合理选取网络RTK中的实用技术能更好地发挥其可靠性高、覆盖地区广和定位精度高等优势。  相似文献