基于应变率场的全球地震活动特征模拟探索     

王武星  石耀霖 《地震》2013,33(4):123-134

本文提出利用全球应变率资料模拟全球地震活动特征的基本思想, 并作了初步探索。 利用GSRM的全球应变率场结果, 初步设计了模拟全球地震活动时空分布特征的细胞自动机模型。 该模型把地球考虑为一个自组织的整体系统, 制定了细胞自动机的演化规则, 获得了模拟的人工地震目录。 初步的模拟结果基本反映了全球地震活动的主要分布特征, 体现了全球构造活动强弱的主要格局, 初步达到了利用GPS等实测资料计算的应变率作为细胞自动机网格状态及其改变量来模拟复杂的全球地震活动特征的实验目的。  相似文献   

Dominant modes of geopotential height in the northern hemisphere in summer on interdecadal timescales     

杨宇星  黄菲  王宏 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2013,31(5):1120-1128

Empirical orthogonal function(EOF) analysis is performed on the field of the northern hemisphere geopotential height at 200-hPa using a 54-year(1958-2011) record of summer data on an interdecadal time scale.The first dominant mode,which shows smooth semi-hemispheric variation with maximum action centers in the western hemisphere in the mid-latitudes over the eastern Pacific,North America,and the North Atlantic,is related to global warming.The second mode,which has a pronounced tropical-extratropical alternating pattern with active centers located over the eastern hemisphere from Western Europe across East Asia to the western Pacific,has a close relationship with the Arctic Oscillation.Further analysis results indicate that the two dominant modes show good correlation with the Arctic sea ice concentration(SIC),with correlation coefficients between these two modes and the first two EOF modes of the Arctic SIC reaching 0.88 and 0.86,respectively.  相似文献   

全球海域大风频率精细化统计分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

郑崇伟 《广东海洋大学学报》2013,(6):77-81

利用1999年8月-2009年7月高精度、高分辨率的QN（QuikSCAT／NCEP）混合风场,对全球海域6级以上的大风频率进行统计分析,为航海、防灾减灾、海洋能开发等提供科学依据。结果表明,全球海域6级以上大风频率具有很大的区域性、季节性差异：1）南北半球西风带海域的大风频率明显高于其余海域,尤其是南印度洋“咆哮西风带”海域出现频率最高,高值中心在60％以上。30°N以内低纬度大范围海域的大风频率整体较低,基本在10％以内,仅在阿拉伯海、琉球群岛——台湾岛——南海大风区一带、南印度洋的马达加斯加——澳大利亚一带存在以东西向椭圆状海域,在20％-40％;2）冬半球的大风频率远大于夏半球,1、4、10月南北半球西风带海域的大风频率明显强于其余海域,7月南半球西风带海域的大风频率较高,北半球大部分海域在10％以内,阿拉伯海、孟加拉湾、南中国海,由于受到强劲西南季风的影响,为北半球的大风频率相对大值区,尤其是阿拉伯海大部分海域在50％以上,大值中心甚至高达90％以上。  相似文献   

扬州市住宅价格的空间分异与模式演变   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

王洋  方创琳  盛长元 《地理学报》2013,68(8):1082-1096

以2001-2012 年扬州中心城区各居住小区的住宅平均单价为基本数据,通过建立住宅价格总体分异测度指数(GDI) 计算其总体分异趋势及各住宅类型内部的分异趋势;采用核密度函数等方法探索住宅价格的分布形态和分异格局的演变规律;利用趋势面分析不同住宅类型价格的空间分异趋势;基于上述结果总结空间分异的演变模式,并分别探索空间分异与格局演变的驱动力。结果表明：① 2001 年以来扬州市住宅价格差距显著增大,分异趋势在波动中增强,与城市住宅均价的年增长率耦合;住宅价格呈现西高东低的空间分异格局,同档次价格小区由空间集聚转为相对分散,高、低价格住宅区分别沿固定扇面由中心向外围扩散。②不同住宅类型内的价格分异走势差别显著,各类型住宅间的价格趋势面差距明显,但其空间形态类似。③ 空间分异模式由2001 年西高东低的扇形同档次价格集聚式分异转变为2012 年扇形与圈层相结合的多档次价格混合式分异。④ 2001 年以来住宅价格总体分异的核心驱动力是城市居住空间的迅速扩展、居民收入差距的增大、房地产市场的繁荣和住宅类型的多元化,其住宅价格空间格局演变的驱动力为城市发展方向的确立与变化、特定住宅类型建设的区位指向和古城保护、旧城改造与新区建设。  相似文献   

Impact of sea surface temperature front on stratus-sea fog over the Yellow and East China Seas — a case study with implications for climatology     

LI Man  ZHANG Suping 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2013,12(2):301-311

A stratus-sea fog event that occurred over the Yellow and East China Seas on 3 June 2011 is investigated using observa-tions and a numerical model, with a focus on the effects of background circulation and Sea Surface Temperature Front (SSTF) on the transition of stratus into sea fog. Southerly winds of a synoptic high-pressure circulation transport water vapor to the Yellow Sea, creating conditions favorable for sea fog/stratus formation. The subsidence from the high-pressure contributes to the temperature inversion at the top of the stratus. The SSTF forces a secondary circulation within the ABL (Atmospheric Boundary Layer), the sink-ing branch of which on the cold flank of SSTF helps lower the stratus layer further to reach the sea surface. The cooling effect over the cold sea surface counteracts the adiabatic warming induced by subsidence. The secondary circulation becomes weak and the fog patches are shrunk heavily with the smoothed SSTF. A conceptual model is proposed for the transition of stratus into sea fog over the Yellow and East China Seas. Finally, the analyses suggest that sea fog frequency will probably decrease due to the weakened SSTF and the reduced subsidence of secondary circulation under global warming.  相似文献   

基于ABAQUS的海底管道静水压溃压力的敏感性分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

崔振平  张中华 《海洋技术学报》2012,31(2):73-76

局部屈曲压溃是海底管道发生稳定性破坏的一种形式,随着管道的刚度相对越来越柔,厚度相对越来越薄,管道发生屈曲压溃的问题也越来越突出。运用ABAQUS有限元分析软件进行管道的非线性屈曲分析,确定不同径厚比、初始椭圆度、轴向拉力和弯矩作用下的管道静水压溃压力,以分析静水压溃压力对这些因素的敏感性。  相似文献   

海岛礁地磁测量时短边真北方位角的确定及精度分析          下载免费PDF全文

许家琨  王双喜  汪平  孙雪洁 《海洋测绘》2012,(2):15-17

在海岛礁地磁测量中,针对一些岛屿面积较小、地磁测点与方位点边长较短的情况,讨论了GPS短边真北方位测量的具体解算方法,分析了短边GPS方位测量的精度情况,并提出了海岛礁地磁测量短边真北方位角测量的一些具体方法和建议,试验证明方法能提高海岛礁地磁测量的效率。  相似文献   

Changes of temperature and precipitation extremes in Hengduan Mountains, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in 1961–2008     

Baoying Ning  Xiaomei Yang  Li Chang 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2012,22(4):422-436

Variations and trends in extreme climate events are more sensitive to climate change than the mean values,and so have received much attention.In this study,twelve indices of temperature extremes and 11 indices of precipitation extremes at 32 meteorological stations in Hengduan Mountains were examined for the period 1961-2008.The results reveal statistically significant increases in the temperature of the warmest and coldest nights and in the frequencies of extreme warm days and nights.Decreases of the diurnal temperature range and the numbers of frost days and ice days are statistically significant.Regional averages of growing season length also display the trends consistent and significant with warming.At a large proportion of the stations,patterns of temperature extremes are consistent with warming since 1961:warming trends in minimum temperature indices are greater than those relating to maximum temperature.As the center of the Shaluli Mountain,the warming magnitudes decrease from inner to outer.Changes in precipitation extremes is low:trends are difficult to detect against the larger inter-annual and decadal-scale variability of precipitation,and only the wet day precipitation and the regional trend in consecutive dry days are significant at the 0.05 level.It can be concluded that the variation of extreme precipitation events is not obvious in the Hengduan Mountains,however,the regional trends generally decrease from the south to the north.Overall,the spatial distribution of temporal changes of all extreme climate indices in the Hengduan Mountains illustrated here reflects the climatic complexity in mountainous regions.  相似文献   

Command and control cities in global space-economy before and after 2008 geo-economic transition     

Ernest Ka Shing LEE  Simon Xiaobin ZHAO 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2012,22(3):334-342

The global economic downturn caused primarily by the US sub-prime mortgage crisis in 2007 engendered revenue loss of the multinational corporations.Existing studies have yet to depict the detrimental impacts on city’s command and control functions induced by the sub-prime mortgage crisis together with its residual wave of global economic recession on the global spatial economy.Recent and previous studies have produced an ’instant history’ of the global spatial economy before the global economic downturn undermines the global economy in late 2008.However,the waxes and wanes of major cities’ command and control functions on the global economic arena before and after the outbreak of financial crisis and its associated geo-economic transitions are still poorly understood.This paper attempts to contribute a new set of customized data to update and fill in the gap in the literature with the investigation of the command and control functions of cities around the world from 2005 to 2009.Particular attentions are paid to the time-space relationship of the geo-economic transition that can capture the recent historical images of the command and control situation of different cities in the world.  相似文献   

Simulation of phytoplankton biomass in Quanzhou Bay using a back propagation network model and sensitivity analysis for environmental variables     

郑伟  石洪华  宋希坤  黄东仁  胡龙 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2012,30(5):843-851

Prediction and sensitivity models,to elucidate the response of phytoplankton biomass to environmental factors in Quanzhou Bay,Fujian,China,were developed using a back propagation(BP) network.The environmental indicators of coastal phytoplankton biomass were determined and monitoring data for the bay from 2008 was used to train,test and build a three-layer BP artificial neural network with multi-input and single-output.Ten water quality parameters were used to forecast phytoplankton biomass(measured as chlorophyll-a concentration).Correlation coefficient between biomass values predicted by the model and those observed was 0.964,whilst the average relative error of the network was-3.46% and average absolute error was 10.53%.The model thus has high level of accuracy and is suitable for analysis of the influence of aquatic environmental factors on phytoplankton biomass.A global sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the influence of different environmental indicators on phytoplankton biomass.Indicators were classified according to the sensitivity of response and its risk degree.The results indicate that the parameters most relevant to phytoplankton biomass are estuary-related and include pH,sea surface temperature,sea surface salinity,chemical oxygen demand and ammonium.  相似文献