Effect of surge uncertainty on probabilistically computed dune erosion     

K.L. Roscoe  F. Diermanse 《Coastal Engineering》2011

To assess the flood protection capacity of dunes in The Netherlands, a semi-probabilistic dune-erosion prediction method is currently in use in which uncertainties in input parameters of an empirical dune erosion model were taken into account, with the exception of the uncertainty in the extreme surge distribution. Previous research has shown that the surge is by far the most influential parameter affecting erosion in the currently used erosion model, which is due both to the influence of the surge level itself and to the conditional dependence of the wave height and period on the surge level in the probabilistic model used for the assessment. Furthermore, the distribution of extreme surge levels has been shown to contain large statistical uncertainty. The inclusion of uncertainty in input variables into probabilistic models results in more extreme events (in this case erosion) for the same exceedance probability, largely due to the incorporation of higher values of the input variables. The goal of the research described in this paper was to determine the impact of the inclusion of uncertainty in the extreme surge distribution on the estimate of critical erosion (erosion associated with an exceedance frequency of 10^− 5 per year). The uncertainty in the surge distributions was estimated and parameterized, and was incorporated into the probabilistic model. A reduction in uncertainty was subsequently imposed to estimate what value a reduction in uncertainty can offer, in terms of the impact on critical erosion. The probabilistic technique first-order reliability method (FORM) was applied to determine the relative contribution of the uncertainty in the surge distribution (as well as the remaining stochastic variables) to the critical erosion. The impact of the inclusion of uncertainty in the surge distribution on the critical retreat distance was found to be substantial with increases ranging from 34% to 93% of the original estimate at five locations along the Dutch coast. The reduced uncertainty showed a more subtle impact, with increases in critical retreat distance ranging from 10% to 26% of the original estimate. The relative importance analysis showed that the uncertainty in the surge distribution has a strong influence, with the relative importance ranging from 10% to 23% for an exceedance frequency of 10^− 5 per year.  相似文献   

川藏铁路西藏昌都段生态保护重要性评价     

王思源  赵敏敏  闫晶  马鑫  刁玉杰  付雷  罗倩 《现代地质》2021,35(1):234-243

生态系统服务功能与生态系统敏感性是衡量生态系统质量及实现高质量生态文明建设的重要依据。川藏铁路沿途跨越多个自然地理单元,生态环境保护是铁路规划、建设及运行过程中面临的关键问题。以川藏铁路西藏昌都段为研究对象,采取资料分析与野外调查结合的手段,运用生态评价模型对研究区的生态系统服务和生态脆弱性进行分析,并基于研究结果对铁路途经区域的生态保护重要性进行评价。结果表明,当前昌都境内川藏铁路涉及的生态保护极重要区、重要区和一般重要区占比分别为42.19%、52.69% 和5.12%。评价结果有助于在铁路规划、建设及运营过程中对工程活动进行合理布局,有针对性地降低对生态系统的负面影响,达到社会经济效益和生态效益双赢的目的。  相似文献   

阳江百利广场基坑监测实施及结果分析     

符建豪  陈伟和  陈继源 《测绘信息与工程》2014,(1):69-71,75

基坑工程监测是指在基坑施工及使用期限内,对基坑及周边环境实施的检查、监控工作。本文结合阳江百利广场基坑工程的特点,介绍了基坑监测方案和实施情况,对重点区域（OU段）的变形信息等基本特征进行分析,确保了在基坑施工过程中能够实时提供基坑及周边建构筑物的动态变形信息,达到动态设计与信息化施工的目的。  相似文献   

对偶图节点重要度的道路网自动选取方法     

刘刚 李永树杨骏  张喜平 《测绘学报》2014,43(1):97-104

采用对偶拓扑方法构建基于广义路网拓扑的复杂交通网络,通过引入m阶邻居节点概念,考虑复杂交通网络中节点度、介中心及节点间距离等因素,顾及节点自身及1到m阶邻居节点的重要度贡献,定义了节点重要度评价模型,进而提出一种基于m阶邻居节点重要度贡献的道路网自动选取方法,并基于网络最小规模原则保持选取道路的连通性。为检验方法的有效性,引入度分布评价所选取道路对路网整体结构及拓扑特性的保持程度,并采用实际城市路网进行试验,结果表明本文方法选取的路网能较好地保持了原始路网的整体结构、拓扑特性及道路连通性,且算法稳定、可靠。  相似文献   

The map of Jerusalem (1538) by Hermanus Borculus and its copies - a carto-genealogical study     

《The Cartographic journal》2013,50(1):31-39

A proper characterization of land-use types is critical for constructing generalization constraints to guide and control landuse data generalization. This paper focused on identification and utilization of their importance based upon land-use distributions and application themes. First, this importance was identified using a three-step method that links a diversity index, a multiple attribute decision model and a spatial association analysis. Second, with the importance, a mathematical function was designed to determine minimum area thresholds of land-use polygons as an example of generalization constraints. Third, the importance was used to assist in the selection of generalization operators and evaluation of generalization outcomes. Fourth, a land-use dataset at 1:10 000, describing the land use of a typical rural area in Hubei province of China, was generalized towards a 1:50 000 dataset to verify the effects of the presented method and function. Three additional tests were implemented to analyze the sensitivity of the importance of land-use types on setting the minimum area threshold and generalization operations. The outcome showed that the proposed methods and functions make land-use data generalization more adaptable for in-use datasets and applications.  相似文献   

基于模拟退火算法的供水管网抗震优化设计     

李杰  卫书麟  刘威 《地震工程与工程振动》2009,29(3)

本文以管网造价为优化目标,管网拓扑结构为优化参数,管网节点最低可靠度为约束条件,建立了供水管网抗震拓扑优化模型。在供水管网功能可靠性分析方法的基础上,结合单元概率重要度分析方法,利用模拟退火算法提出了供水管网的抗震拓扑优化方法,并对一典型供水管网进行了拓扑优化分析。分析表明,对于管网抗震拓扑优化这样一个组合优化问题,模拟退火算法提供了一类很好的途径,以此为基础进行供水管网抗震可靠性优化设计具有很好的效果。  相似文献   

Pushover分析中抗力曲线的概率研究     

易伟建  蒋蝶 《地震工程与工程振动》2009,29(1)

本文在已有的研究基础上,结合我国现行的抗震规范（GB50011—2001）和地震作用统计参数,提出了pushover分析中结构体系抗力曲线的保证率计算方法。以pushover分析所得的塑性铰出现次序和最终数量作为结构主要失效模式,同时考虑了结构抗力以及地震作用的随机性对结构体系抗力曲线的影响,借助于主要随机变量的灵敏度分析,得到了确定性pushover分析曲线的保证率。框架结构算例给出了本文方法的计算结果,并用重要抽样法进行了检验。  相似文献   

基于粗糙集理论的边坡稳定性评价中因素权重确定方法的研究   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5  

王广月  崔海丽  李倩 《岩土力学》2009,30(8):2418-2422

为了准确计算影响边坡稳定性的各个因素的权重,应用粗糙集理论对原始数据进行挖掘,在实测数据离散化的基础上,将权重确定问题转化为粗糙集中属性重要性评价问题,建立了关于边坡稳定性评价的关系数据模型,经过属性值特征化建立了知识系统,在数据分析下通过分析评判方法对评价对象的支持度和重要性,计算出边坡稳定性评价模型的权重。该方法克服了传统权重确定方法的主观性,使得边坡稳定性评价方法更具客观性,从而提高了边坡稳定性评价的精度,通过实例说明该方法更加合理有效。  相似文献   

西南地区生态脆弱性评价研究--以云南、贵州为例   总被引：13，自引：0，他引：13  

赵珂  饶懿  王丽丽  刘玉 《地质灾害与环境保护》2004,15(2):38-42

中国西南地区人口-资源-环境的矛盾非常突出,贫困与生态恶化的双重压力使该地区的生态环境脆弱程度进一步恶化。对西南地区做出客观公正的生态脆弱性评价,可对该地区实现社会经济的可持续发展提出科学依据。本文以云南、贵州为例,根据云贵两省的生态环境特点,对导致两省生态环境脆弱程度恶化的主要因素——地质、气候、经济等因素进行统计分析并做出综合评价．最后再根据综合评价指数进行结果分析与讨论,为缓解云贵两省生态环境脆弱程度的进一步恶化提出合理化建议。  相似文献   

Metrics for characterizing network structure and node importance in Spatial Social Networks     

Dipto Sarkar  Clio Andris  Colin A. Chapman  Raja Sengupta 《International journal of geographical information science》2019,33(5):1017-1039

Social Network Analysis offers powerful tools to analyze the structure of relationships between a set of people. However, the addition of spatial information poses new challenges, as nodes are embedded simultaneously in network space and Euclidean space. While nearby nodes may not form social ties, ties may exist at a distance, a configuration ill-suited for traditional spatial metrics that assume adjacent objects are related. As such, there are relatively few metrics to describe these nuanced situations. We advance the burgeoning field of spatial social network analysis by introducing a set of new metrics. Specifically, we introduce the spatial social network schema, tuning parameter and the flattening ratio, each of which leverages the notion of ‘distance’ to augment insights obtained by relying on topology alone. These methods are used to answer the questions: What is the social and spatial structure of the network? Who are the key individuals at different spatial scales? We use two synthetic networks with properties mimicking the ones reported in the literature as validation datasets and a case study of employer–employee network. The methods characterize the employer–employee as spatially loose with predominantly local connections and identify key individuals responsible for keeping the network connected at different spatial scales.  相似文献