青藏高原各拉丹冬冰芯记录的季节气温变化     

张拥军  康世昌  秦大河  任贾文  张玉兰  Bjorn GRIGHOLM  Paul MAYEWSKI 《地理学报(英文版)》2007,17(4):431-441

A 70-year history of precipitation δ18O record has been retrieved using an ice core drilled from a plat portion of the firn area in the Guoqu Glacier (33o34′37.8″ N, 91o10′35.3″ E, 5720 m a.s.l.) on Mt. Geladaindong (the source region of Yangtze River) during October and November, 2005. Based on the seasonality of δ18O records and the significant positive relationships between monsoon/non-monsoon δ18O values and summer/spring air temperature from the nearby meteorological stations, the history of summer and spring air temperature have been reconstructed for the last 70 years. The results show that both summer and spring air temperature variations present similar trends during the last 70 years. Regression analysis indicates that the slope of the temperature-δ18O relationship is 1.3℃/‰ for non-monsoon δ18O values and spring air temperature, and 0.4℃/‰ for monsoon δ18O values and summer air temperature. Variation of air temperature recorded in the ice core is consistent with that in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), however, the warming trend in the Geladaindong region is more intense than that in the NH, reflecting a higher sensitivity to global warming in the high elevation regions. In addition, warming trend is greater in spring than in summer.  相似文献   

胶州湾鱼卵、仔鱼和稚鱼的分布   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

黄凤鹏  黄景洲  杨玉玲  王宗灵  陈士群 《海洋科学进展》2007,25(4):468-473

2003年1月-2004年1月在胶州湾海域逐月进行连续13个航次的调查,对胶州湾鱼卵、仔鱼和稚鱼的种类组成、丰度和主要种类的分布进行了研究。结果表明,采集到的鱼卵均为浮性鱼卵。鱼卵丰度最高值出现在8月(5.02粒/m3),次之为5月(4.97粒/m3)。共采集到仔、稚鱼10种,隶属9科10属,优势种为刺鱼叚虎鱼、斑鱼祭和玉筋鱼。根据出现的季节和出现时间的长短,将仔、稚鱼分为暖季类群、暖季短时类群和冷季类群三种类群。暖季类群较冷季类群占有明显的优势。暖季短时类群的种数、丰度和站位出现率都比较低。仔、稚鱼的丰度、种数的季节变化显著,最大值均出现在6月份,丰度是16.34尾/m3,种数为7种,与海水月平均温度的季节变化节律基本一致。  相似文献   

长江流域年降水预测动力-统计降尺度方法及其应用          下载免费PDF全文

杨雅薇  陈丽娟  沈秉璐 《大气科学学报》2021,44(6):835-848

基于站点资料、再分析数据和动力气候模式回报数据,利用经验正交函数分解（EOF,Empirical Orthogonal Function）迭代和年际增量方法,探讨了长江流域年尺度降水异常的动力-统计降尺度预测方法及其应用效果。结果表明,基于再分析数据的年尺度环流场,建立的长江流域年尺度降水异常增量的统计降尺度预测方案,其26 a回报检验的距平相关系数（ACC）平均达0.6,证明该方案具有较高的可预报性。进一步利用模式预测的年尺度环流场,建立了年降水异常增量的动力-统计降尺度预测方案,其ACC平均为0.42,显示了较高的回报技巧,远优于模式直接输出的年降水动力预报结果。通过分析调制年降水预报技巧高低的因素发现,赤道中东太平洋年平均海温距平为负值时,预报技巧更高,ACC平均达0.5以上。在拉尼娜发展年或拉尼娜持续年的冷水背景下,利用EOF迭代选取的特征向量偏多时,多尺度的大气环流信息被纳入预测模型中作为预测信号,预测技巧得到了提高。  相似文献   

UW Persei     

G. A. Richter 《Astronomische Nachrichten》1987,308(2):125-126

This object consists of two visible components; it is not quite sure if the brighter one is variable. An examination on 314 plates gave no further maximum in addition to the three already known historical eruptions. A relationship of the brighter component to the cataclysmic variables is not very probable because of the observed UV weakness.  相似文献   

长三角地区冬季霾污染日数的季节预测          下载免费PDF全文

董莹  尹志聪  段明铿 《大气科学学报》2021,44(2):290-301

将霾日数年际增量作为预测对象、前期外强迫因子作为自变量,分别运用多元线性回归方法和广义相加模型建立长三角地区冬季霾日数预测模型.综合考察"去一法"交叉验证和循环独立样本实验的结果,选出适用于各个模型较优的建模方法,并对比长三角地区冬季霾日数预测模型(MODEL1)和长三角地区冬季霾日数分月预测模型(MODEL2).MO...  相似文献   

一种集成预报技术——最优调合法   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

曹鸿兴  谷湘潜 《气象》1999,25(5):3-7

为使多种方法的预报结果集成一个优化的预报,作者提出了一种称为最优调合法的集成预报技术。该技术既考虑了持续性预报又考虑了预报方法所具有的系统性误差。首先运用多种方法建立多年试报数据集,随后对数据集构建线性模型,用此模型对我国汛期（６～８月）降水场进行了试验,证明最优调合法能显著提高预报技巧,但其效果有明显的年际差别  相似文献   

Reflection of equatorial Kelvin waves at eastern ocean boundaries Part II: Pacific and Atlantic Oceans     

J. Soares  I. Wainer  N. C. Wells 《Annales Geophysicae》1999,17(6):827-837

The effect of viscosity, non linearities, incident wave period and realistic eastern coastline geometry on energy fluxes are investigated using a shallow water model with a spatial resolution of 1/4 degree in both meridional and zonal directions. Equatorial and mid-latitude responses are considered. It is found that (1) the influence of the coastline geometry and the incident wave period is more important for the westward energy flux than for the poleward flux, and (2) the effect of the inclination of the eastern ocean boundary on the poleward energy flux, for the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, decline as the period of the incident wave increases. Furthermore, the model simulations suggest that the poleward energy fluxes from meridional boundaries give plausible results for motions of seasonal and annual periods. For comparatively shorter periods, a realistic coastline geometry has to be included for more accurate results. It is recommended that any numerical model involving the reflection of baroclinic Rossby waves (of intraseasonal, seasonal or annual periods) on the eastern Pacific or Atlantic Oceans, should consider the effect of the coastline geometry in order to improve the accuracy of the results.  相似文献   

CHARACTERISTICS OF 10-DAY MEAN SURFACE SENSIBLE HEAT FLUX VARIATIONS IN THE SCS MONSOON REGION AND POSSIBLE CONNECTIONS WITH THE SCS SUMMER MONSOON ONSET   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

张耀存  钱永甫 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1999,(1)

The time and space variations of the ten-day mean surface sensible heat flux have beenanalyzed in this paper based on the data of NCEP/NCAR from January of 1979 to December of1995 in the South China Sea(SCS)monsoon region.It is found that large variations of the surfacesensible heat flux standard deviations exist in the northwestern Indochina Peninsula and the IndianPeninsula regions,and their locations and strength change significantly during the onset period ofSCS monsoon.The negative deviations appear evidently earlier in the Indocbina Peninsula than inthe Indian Peninsula but the deviation strength in the Indian Peninsula is stronger than that in theIndochina Peninsula.The appearance of the zonal negative mean deviations in the southern part ofthe Indochina Peninsula corresponds to the date of the SCS summer monsoon onset,while theoccurrence of the deviation decrease corresponds to the date of the South Asian monsoon onset.The sensible heat flux increases dekad by dekad before the onset of the summer monsoon in theIndian Peninsula and the Indochina Peninsula and decreases after the monsoon onset.Therefore,the surface sensible heat flux changes in the Indochina and the Indian Peninsula regions maybe havesome connections with the SCS monsoon onset and the Indian monsoon onset,and the IndochinaPeninsula maybe becomes the sensitive or key region to the SCS monsoon onset and the land maybeplays an important role in triggering summer monsoon onset.  相似文献   

Geomagnetic events and relative palaeointensity variations during the past 300 ka as recorded in Kolbeinsey Ridge sediments, Iceland Sea: indication for a strongly variable geomagnetic field     

N. R. Nowaczyk  T. W. Frederichs 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1999,88(1):116-131

 Magnetostratigraphic analyses of five sediment cores recovered from the Kolbeinsey Ridge area revealed consistent records of several geomagnetic events linked with low relative palaeointensities within the past 300 ka. Interpretation of various rock magnetic parameters clearly rule out the possibility that the recorded non-normal polarity directions are linked to a deviating magnetomineralogical fraction or a distorted magnetic fabric. Therefore, these directions are interpreted as true recordings of geomagnetic field variations. Hysteresis parameters and thermomagnetic measurements revealed pure pseudo single-domain (PSD) magnetite with Curie temperatures of 580  °C as the dominant remanence carrier mineral. Due to the homogeneity of the rock magnetic parameters, the sediments are also suitable for relative palaeointensity determinations. Oxygen-isotope stratigraphies for two of the cores provided a time frame to estimate the age ranges for the recorded geomagnetic field variations. The obtained record of ten events of up to 12 ka duration during the past 300 ka and the related record of relative palaeointensity indicate a fairly dynamic character of the Earth's magnetic field, which is in clear contrast to published polarity time scales. Received: 2 July 1998 / Accepted: 5 February 1999  相似文献   

A spherical harmonic analysis of solar daily variations in the years 1964–1965: response estimates and source fields for global induction—II. Results     

Ulrich Schmucker 《Geophysical Journal International》1999,136(2):455-476

  相似文献