Insights from a Simple Hotelling Model of the World Oil Market     

C.-Y. Cynthia Lin 《Natural Resources Research》2009,18(1):19-28

This paper uses annual data on world oil price and consumption from 1965 to 2006 to calibrate a Hotelling model of optimal nonrenewable resource extraction. Numerical solutions are generated for various specifications of the elasticity of demand for both isoelastic demand and linear demand under each of two possible market structures: perfect competition and monopoly. Prior to the 1973 oil crisis, the model that best fits actual data is one of perfect competition with linear demand and a demand elasticity of −0.4. For the periods 1973–1981 and 1981–1990, the model that best fits actual data is one of monopoly with linear demand and demand elasticities of −0.8 and −0.7, respectively, suggesting that the market was strongly influenced by OPEC during this time. Under the model that best fits the most recent period (perfect competition with linear demand and demand elasticity −0.5), the real oil price (in 1982–1984 U.S.$) should fall in the range $60.87–$66.31/barrel over the years 2010–2030.

C.-Y. Cynthia LinEmail:

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中国土壤有机碳库及其演变与应对气候变化   总被引：33，自引：0，他引：33  

潘根兴 《气候变化研究进展》2008,4(5):282-289

 通过综述和评价中国土壤,特别是农田土壤有机碳库（以下简称碳库）的现状与演变态势, 讨论其对我国应对气候变化的意义, 提出了我国土壤碳库及其演变与应对气候变化的基本国情是：1) 我国土壤背景碳储量较低且区域分布不均衡;2) 我国土壤固碳效应明显,未来固碳减排潜力显著;3) 技术和政策是实现和提高我国土壤碳汇、促进我国应对气候变化能力建设的重要途径。建议进一步加强对我国农田土壤固碳减排的研发投入, 完善农业应对气候变化的相关政策和鼓励措施体系,研究构建气候友好的新型农业,以期在提高和稳定农业生产力与应对气候变化能力上获得双赢。  相似文献   

可持续旅游发展的区域产业合理规模探讨   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

王云才 《地域研究与开发》2000,19(4):75-78

区域旅游产业规模是一定时期一定区域层面上的旅游产业的资本存量,是区域经济资本存量体系中重要的属性资本。产业资本存量结构是区域产业结构系统的直接体现。旅游产业资本扩张与同期区域资本总量和其它产业资本之间匹配发展是旅游产业可持续发展的重要理论问题,文章从理论上探讨了可持续旅游发展的合理规模的确定标准和均衡条件,同时对理论规模在实践中的修订因素进行了初步分析。  相似文献   

Riparian management affects instream habitat condition in a dairy stream catchment     

R Holmes  J Hayes  C Matthaei  G Closs  M Williams  E Goodwin 《新西兰海洋与淡水研究杂志》2016,50(4):581-599

Using a space-for-time substitution design, we investigated the response of structural instream habitat and fish populations to different riparian management practices throughout a Dairy Best Practice Catchment. We found a significant negative correlation between the upstream area of stock exclusion fencing and deposited instream fine sediment cover. Furthermore, we determined that this relationship emerges when ≥300?m lengths of upstream riparian area were included in the analysis, indicating the scale at which stock exclusion fencing results in a positive instream habitat response. Specifically, for this historically degraded spring-fed stream, our findings indicate that riparian segments with 5 m wide stock exclusion fences (both banks) are required to achieve instream fine sediment cover below 20% in downstream reaches. Fish were sparse and evenly spread throughout the catchment. Fish distributions were not correlated with reach-scale riparian or instream habitat variables, possibly because the available habitat quality gradient was too narrow.  相似文献   

Historical abundance of juvenile commercial fish in coastal habitats: Implications for fish habitat management in Canada     

《Marine Policy》2016

An important component of science-based fisheries policy is the provision of habitat adequate for population renewal. In Canada, the Fisheries Act pays little attention to managing fish habitat, and was further weakened by changes enacted in 2012. Specifically, determining the role of fish habitat in contributing to fisheries and fish stock recovery is challenging when many stocks have severely declined and no longer occupy former habitats. This study compared the abundance of juvenile fish in coastal vegetated habitats before and after collapse or decline of groundfish stocks in Atlantic Canada. This comparison was done by compiling past studies that surveyed juvenile Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and pollock (Pollachius virens) in vegetated habitats across three provinces. Two studies were repeated, and one that already had post-collapse data was analyzed to quantify long-term changes in juvenile abundance. In all three cases substantial reduction in juvenile abundance coincided with declines in adult stocks. However, juvenile fish still occur in coastal habitats and could aid in adult stock recovery. The current version of the Canadian Fisheries Act requires presence of an ongoing fishery to trigger habitat protection. This is problematic as low fish abundance may lead to lowered habitat protection and potentially habitat degradation, with less or lesser-quality habitat for fish in the future. Thus, recommendations are made to repeal the 2012 Fisheries Act changes and enhance current fish habitat legislation. Using a precautionary approach for coastal fish habitat management, particularly in valuing its potential for fish stock recovery, would strengthen Canadian fisheries management.  相似文献   

Otolith shape as a valuable tool to evaluate the stock structure of swordfish Xiphias gladius in the Indian Ocean     

K Mahé  H Evano  T Mille  D Muths  J Bourjea 《African Journal of Marine Science》2016,38(4):457-464

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Monitoring the recovery of a previously exploited surf-zone fish community in the St Lucia Marine Reserve,South Africa,using a no-take sanctuary area as a benchmark     

BQ Mann  H Winker  JQ Maggs  SN Porter 《African Journal of Marine Science》2016,38(3):423-441

Limiting accessibility to a fishing area can reduce fishing effort effectively and may therefore promote local recovery of depleted stocks. In January 2002, beach driving was banned in South Africa, thereby reducing angler access to large areas of the coastline, particularly in less-developed areas. In November 2001 a project had been established in the St Lucia Marine Reserve, on the east coast of South Africa, to compare surf-zone fish populations inside a no-take sanctuary zone with those in an adjacent exploited area. Subsequent to the ban, the aim of the project was adapted such that surf-zone fish populations were monitored for potential recovery in what had been the exploited area, located to the north of Cape Vidal, which anglers could no longer access easily, because of the prohibition on beach driving. Standardised research fishing was conducted at two sites in the previously exploited area and two sites in the no-take sanctuary. Conventional stock-status indicators showed evidence of recovery in the four most common species caught in the previously exploited area, in terms of both abundance and biomass. Generalised additive mixed models were used to account for the influence of targeting specific species; however, subtle differences in habitat between the sampling sites, improved angling skill over time, variability in recruitment, and differential species-specific responses complicated interpretation of results. The implications of the findings are discussed in terms of the future monitoring and management of marine protected areas both within the St Lucia Marine Reserve and farther afield.  相似文献   

Assessing changes in the above ground biomass and carbon stocks of Lidder valley,Kashmir Himalaya,India   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Irfan Rashid  Mudasir Ahmad Bhat  Shakil Ahmad Romshoo 《国际地球制图》2017,32(7):717-734

The changes in the land use and land cover (LULC), above ground biomass (AGB) and the associated above ground carbon (AGC) stocks were assessed in Lidder Valley, Kashmir Himalaya using satellite data (1980–2013), allometric equations and phytosociological data. Change detection analysis of LULC, comprising of eight vegetation and five non-vegetation types, indicated that 6% (74.5 km²) of the dense evergreen forest has degraded. Degraded forest and settlement increased by 20 and 52.8 km², respectively. Normalized difference vegetation index was assessed and correlated with the field-based biomass estimates to arrive at best-fit models for remotely sensed AGB estimates for 2005 and 2013. Total loss of 1.018 Megatons of AGB and 0.5 Megatons of AGC was estimated from the area during 33-year period which would have an adverse effect on the carbon sequestration potential of the area which is already facing the brunt of climate change.  相似文献   

Past and future carbon sequestration benefits of China’s grain for green program     

《Global Environmental Change》2017

Carbon sequestration through ecological restoration programs is an increasingly important option to reduce the rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. China’s Grain for Green Program (GGP) is likely the largest centrally organized land-use change program in human history and yet its carbon sequestration benefit has yet to be systematically assessed. Here we used seven empirical/statistical equations of forest biomass carbon sequestration and five soil carbon change models to estimate the total and decadal carbon sequestration potentials of the GGP during 1999–2050, including changes in four carbon pools: aboveground biomass, roots, forest floor and soil organic carbon. The results showed that the total carbon stock in the GGP-affected areas was 682 Tg C in 2010 and the accumulative carbon sink estimates induced by the GGP would be 1697, 2635, 3438 and 4115 Tg C for 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050, respectively. Overall, the carbon sequestration capacity of the GGP can offset about 3%–5% of China’s annual carbon emissions (calculated using 2010 emissions) and about 1% of the global carbon emissions. Afforestation by the GGP contributed about 25% of biomass carbon sinks in global carbon sequestration in 2000–2010. The results suggest that large-scale ecological restoration programs such as afforestation and reforestation could help to enhance global carbon sinks, which may shed new light on the carbon sequestration benefits of such programs in China and also in other regions.  相似文献   

Timber production assessment of a plantation forest: An integrated framework with field-based inventory,multi-source remote sensing data and forest management history     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2016

Timber production is the purpose for managing plantation forests, and its spatial and quantitative information is critical for advising management strategies. Previous studies have focused on growing stock volume (GSV), which represents the current potential of timber production, yet few studies have investigated historical process-harvested timber. This resulted in a gap in a synthetical ecosystem service assessment of timber production. In this paper, we established a Management Process–based Timber production (MPT) framework to integrate the current GSV and the harvested timber derived from historical logging regimes, trying to synthetically assess timber production for a historical period. In the MPT framework, age-class and current GSV determine the times of historical thinning and the corresponding harvested timber, by using a “space-for-time” substitution. The total timber production can be estimated by the historical harvested timber in each thinning and the current GSV. To test this MPT framework, an empirical study on a larch plantation (LP) with area of 43,946 ha was conducted in North China for a period from 1962 to 2010. Field-based inventory data was integrated with ALOS PALSAR (Advanced Land-Observing Satellite Phased Array L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar) and Landsat-8 OLI (Operational Land Imager) data for estimating the age-class and current GSV of LP. The random forest model with PALSAR backscatter intensity channels and OLI bands as input predictive variables yielded an accuracy of 67.9% with a Kappa coefficient of 0.59 for age-class classification. The regression model using PALSAR data produced a root mean square error (RMSE) of 36.5 m³ ha⁻¹. The total timber production of LP was estimated to be 7.27 × 10⁶ m³, with 4.87 × 10⁶ m³ in current GSV and 2.40 × 10⁶ m³ in harvested timber through historical thinning. The historical process-harvested timber accounts to 33.0% of the total timber production, which component has been neglected in the assessments for current status of plantation forests. Synthetically considering the RMSE for predictive GSV and misclassification of age-class, the error in timber production were supposed to range from −55.2 to 56.3 m³ ha⁻¹. The MPT framework can be used to assess timber production of other tree species at a larger spatial scale, providing crucial information for a better understanding of forest ecosystem service.  相似文献