GRAPES区域集合预报两种侧边界扰动方法对比试验     

范宇恩  陈静  邓国  陈法敬  刘雪晴  徐致真 《气象》2019,45(12):1629-1641

中国气象局数值预报中心自2014年建立了区域集合预报业务系统,其使用的侧边界扰动由全球集合预报系统动力降尺度得到。为深入了解侧边界扰动对区域集合预报的影响,基于15 km水平分辨率的区域集合预报模式,使用动力降尺度方法和尺度化滞后平均法(scaled lagged average forecasting,SLAF)设计构造了两种侧边界扰动方案,并开展了2015年7月共6天的集合预报试验,利用集合均方根误差、集合离散度、连续分级概率评分、离群值、Brier Score及相对作用特征曲线面积等概率预报检验方法进行了多方面检验,分析了两种侧边界扰动方案对区域集合预报质量的影响。结果表明:动力降尺度侧边界扰动方案(DOWN)的扰动总能量在各垂直层次均大于SLAF方案,使得边界上前者的离散度大于后者,集合扰动增长更为合理;对于等压面要素和地面要素,DOWN方案的离散度、Outlier、CRPS等评分优于SLAF方案,反映了DOWN方案构造的侧边界扰动更加合理;在降水概率预报技巧方面,SLAF方案在评分上具有一定优势,但评分的提高没有通过显著性水平检验,因此认为两种方案对降水预报的改进基本相当。  相似文献   

ACTIVE TENDON CONTROL OF CABLE-STAYED BRIDGES     

Y. ACHKIRE  A. PREUMONT 《地震工程与结构动力学》1996,25(6):585-597

This paper considers the active vibration control of cables and cable/structure systems with an active tendon controlling the axial displacement of the cable anchor point. It is demonstrated that a force feedback based on a collocated force sensor measuring the tension in the cable is feasible and that this control configuration can be associated with control laws with guaranteed stability properties. Experimental results are presented on a cable with small sag and on a cable/structure system. They show that the control algorithm can provide the structure with several percent of active damping and that the parametric resonance does not occur when the natural frequency of the structure is twice that of the cable.  相似文献   

ANALYTICAL HAYAMI SOLUTION FOR THE DIFFUSIVE WAVE FLOOD ROUTING PROBLEM WITH LATERAL INFLOW     

ROGER MOUSSA 《水文研究》1996,10(9):1209-1227

The diffusive wave equation is generally used in flood routing in rivers. The two parameters of the equation, celerity and diffusivity, are usually taken as functions of the discharge. If these two parameters can be assumed to be constant without lateral inflow, the diffusive wave equation may have an analytical solution: the Hayami model. A general analytical method, based on ‘Hayami’s hypothesis, is developed here which resolves the diffusive wave flood routing equation with lateral inflow or outflow uniformly distributed over a channel reach. Flood routing parameters are then identified using observed inflow and outflow and the Hayami model used to simulate outflow. Two examples are discussed. Firstly, the prediction of the hydrograph at a downstream section on the basis of a knowledge of the hydrograph at an upstream section and the lateral inflow. The second example concerns lateral inflow identification between an upstream and a downstream section on the basis of a knowledge of hydrographs at the upstream and downstream sections. The new general Hayami model was applied to flood routing simulation and for lateral inflow identification of the River Allier in France. The major advantages of the method relate to computer simulation, real-time forecasting and control applications in examples where numerical instabilities, in the solution of the partial differential equations must be avoided.  相似文献   

预应力混凝土连续梁桥振动特性变异及舒适度评价   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

宗周红  赖苍林  夏樟华 《地震工程与工程振动》2006,26(1):71-77

由于预应力损失、混凝土收缩徐变、超载等原因,预应力混凝土桥梁出现了较强的振动。本文通过对福建省福州市闽江三桥全桥环境振动试验和正常运营条件下24小时的监测,研究预应力混凝土连续梁桥的动力特性及其变异和振动舒适度,结果表明:在较为稳定的风和温湿度环境下,固有频率在一天内的最大变化为3.06%,模态阻尼比的最大变化为37.93%,舒适度的狄克曼指标降到“能忍受短时间振动”的区域。  相似文献   

一种新型双磙子FPS隔振系统的动力学模型   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

袁健  Paul Roschke 《地震工程与工程振动》2006,26(1):164-168

本文基于多体动力学理论建立了一种新型双磙子FPS(Friction Pendu lum System)隔振系统动力学模型。在对该系统进行运动学分析的基础上,可将它归结为一个单自由度系统。应用非惯性系中质点系相对动能定理的微分形式可推导出该系统的运动微分方程,它是一个非线性方程。在小角位移的情形下,可近似得到相应的无阻尼线性系统的固有频率,它与观测结果吻合。这一双磙子FPS隔振系统的动力学方程的建立有助于对该系统动力学行为的研究,对方程的直接求解可提高仿真设计中正问题计算的效率,为设计包含该系统的半主动控制奠定了基础。  相似文献   

Winkler地基梁在温度场中受简谐激励的主共振分析   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5  

彭震  杨志安 《地震工程与工程振动》2006,26(3):91-93

研究W inkler地基梁在温度场中受简谐激励作用的主共振问题。应用弹性理论和Galerk in方法建立W inkler地基梁在温度场中受简谐激励作用的非线性动力方程。应用非线性振动的多尺度法,求得系统主共振的近似解。分析不同参数对主共振响应曲线的影响。  相似文献   

钢框架-混凝土抗侧力结构的抗震性能研究   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

魏德敏  武奇华 《地震工程与工程振动》2006,26(3):115-117

在双重抗侧力结构体系中,地震作用主要由支撑框架或剪力墙等抗侧力结构承受,框架则主要承受竖向荷载,但是对框架的水平抗力也有具体要求。我国规范和美国规范对钢框架-剪力墙结构中框架应该承担的剪力有不同的规定,并且给出相应的抗震校核方法。此外,人们需要了解在混合结构中减少柱的数量对结构抗震性能的影响。为此,本文进行了2种钢-混凝土混合结构地震响应的有限元分析,并且考虑了柱距的变化,得到了轴压比的变化规律,对由两国抗震校核方法的计算结果进行了对比,提出了相关的设计建议。  相似文献   

基于随机振动理论确定桥梁地震碰撞的临界间隙   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

李忠献  岳福青  周莉  刘旭锴 《地震工程与工程振动》2006,26(4):156-161

确定梁桥邻跨间避免地震碰撞的最小间隙,对于梁桥地震碰撞危险性预测及防地震碰撞措施的设计有着显著意义。本文基于随机振动理论建立梁桥地震碰撞邻跨临界间隙的计算方法,分析模型采用跨径不等的两跨简支梁桥,且考虑隔震支座非线性恢复力的影响。文中首先建立了系统的非线性运动方程;随后运用随机等效线性化理论将其线性化;最后在复模态空间推导了临界碰撞间隙的均值与方差的计算方法。人工地震动的非线性时程分析结果验证了本文算法的正确性。参数分析表明,临界间隙随邻跨长度比增大而增大,随支座屈服力与上部结构重量比值减小而增大,随隔震支座屈服位移增大而增大,随桥墩振动周期增大而增大。隔震支座屈服前后刚度比值对临界间隙大小影响很小。  相似文献   

长江三峡巴东复杂斜坡系统成因研究   总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9  

刘传正刘艳辉  连建发 《地质论评》2006,52(4):510-521

三峡库区巴东县新城区所在的扇形大斜坡是一个复杂斜坡系统。斜坡后缘边界的挤压变形带是斜坡整体沿其底界面（T1j^3-T2b^1）之间岩层界面向长江发生重力蠕滑作用的结果,不存在“巴东断裂”问题。斜坡系统内部未发现成规模的褶皱,也不存在数量众多的内动力成因的断裂带。巴东斜坡区浅表生变形破坏类型可概括为侧向拉裂、“雪崩式”垮塌、表层风化、侧向滑移张剪破裂、岩层折断变位、软岩膝折剪破裂和压扭破裂又重胶结7种重力卸荷破坏力学模式。斜坡系统内部发育分期分区（块）滑动（滑坡）现象,但不存在构造地质意义上的“断层”形迹。在地貌形态上,巴东大斜坡被4条冲沟分割成5个斜坡单元。在斜坡地质结构、成因类型与空间分布上,巴东大斜坡可划分为3个层次,即表层崩塌滑坡成因为主的堆积层（第一层次）,冲沟分割且浅表生地质形迹发育的层状顺倾的中间基岩层（第二层次）和整体连续顺倾的深层基岩层（第三层次）。分形几何计算证明,巴东大斜坡的地貌形态尚处于侵蚀发育的青（幼）年期。FLAC^3D数值模拟发现,在长江侵蚀下切的不同阶段,巴东斜坡体前缘和后缘接近底界面位置塑性变形区分布集中,但不具备沿深层界面发生整体滑动剪出的可能性。基本认识是,“巴东复杂斜坡系统”是在官渡口-东瀼口向斜南翼（单斜山）的地质背景下,持续经受长江快速侵蚀下切外动力作用,河谷岸坡快速临空导致其自身重力产生强烈的侧向卸荷与滑移等浅表生地质改造作用过程而形成的,可简单地概括为“重力成因论”。  相似文献   

Analysis of Safe Span Length and Fatigue Life of Submarine Pipelines     

HE Zhang-feng  WEI Yuan  LIU Shu-lin 《中国海洋工程》2020,(1):119-130

Owing to the complex environmental conditions, suspension could induce complicated forces on submarine pipelines and even cause vortex-induced vibration, resulting in fatigue damage of pipelines. Through aiming at the 28-inch submarine pipeline in the East China Sea, the pipeline was segmented according to the similarity, considering the factors of pipe assembly, typhoon, current, wave and seabed topography. The effects of span length on natural frequency in each section of submarine pipeline were analyzed by finite element model. The maximum safe span length allowed by each pipeline section was verified by fatigue cumulative damage theory, and the fatigue life of each pipeline section were predicted. The results showed that each order natural frequency of the pipeline decreased with the increase of span length. The calculated results of empirical formulas were much smaller than those of the FEM analysis. The increase of the gap between the suspended pipeline and the seabed was beneficial to enhance the fatigue life of the suspended pipeline.  相似文献