Prediction of base flows from basin characteristics: a case study from Zimbabwe / Prévision de débits de base à partir de caractéristiques du bassin: une étude de cas au Zimbabwe     

《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4)

Abstract

Abstract Base flows make up the flows of most rivers in Zimbabwe during the dry season. Prediction of base flows from basin characteristics is necessary for water resources planning of ungauged basins. Linear regression and artificial neural networks were used to predict the base flow index (BFI) from basin characteristics for 52 basins in Zimbabwe. Base flow index was positively related to mean annual precipitation (r = 0.71), basin slope (r = 0.76), and drainage density (r = 0.29), and negatively related to mean annual evapotranspiration (r = –0.74), and proportion of a basin with grasslands and wooded grasslands (r = –0.53). Differences in lithology did not significantly affect BFI. Linear regression and artificial neural networks were both suitable for predicting BFI values. The predicted BFI was used in turn to derive flow duration curves of the 52 basins and with R ² being 0.89–0.99.  相似文献   

Stormwater quality during residential construction activities: influential variables          下载免费PDF全文

Nora Sillanpää  Harri Koivusalo 《水文研究》2015,29(19):4238-4251

Research on the water quality of urban runoff has so far focussed on the post‐development phase of urban catchments, whereas water quality in developing areas under construction has remained less understood. The construction phase, however, may constitute a considerable source of diffuse pollution in urban areas. This study investigated the mechanisms affecting water quality in residential areas during the construction and post‐construction phases. Water quality (suspended solids, total phosphorus, total nitrogen and chemical oxygen demand) and runoff were monitored over a period of 5 years in three catchments located in the city of Espoo in Southern Finland. The catchments included an urbanizing area under construction and low‐density and high‐density residential areas. The water quality was quantified in terms of event mean concentrations and loads. The key influential variables explaining the water quality in a multiple linear regression analysis included hydrological variables (event volume and intensity), antecedent conditions and a variable describing the ongoing construction projects. Construction activities in the developing catchment had a profound impact on water quality. Inclusion of the variables describing activities, such as earth moving works, paving, house construction and temporary wastewater discharges, was necessary to explain water quality variations in the developing catchment. The importance of antecedent conditions as an explanatory variable depended on the site and the pollutant in question. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Prediction of the impact of climate change on drought: an evaluation of six UK catchments using two stochastic approaches     

Christian Onof 《水文研究》2013,27(11):1600-1614

Under future climate scenarios, possible changes of drought patterns pose new challenges for water resources management. For quantifying and qualifying drought characteristics in the UK, the drought severity indices of six catchments are investigated and modelled by two stochastic methods: autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models and the generalized linear model (GLM) approach. From the ARIMA models, autocorrelation structures are first identified for the drought index series, and the unexplained variance of the series is used to establish empirical relationships between drought and climate variables. Based on the ARIMA results, mean sea level pressure and possibly the North Atlantic Oscillation index are found to be significant climate variables for seasonal drought forecasting. Using the GLM approach, occurrences and amounts of rainfall are simulated with conditioning on climate variables. From the GLM‐simulated rainfall for the 1980s and 2080s, the probabilistic characteristics of the drought severity are derived and assessed. Results indicate that the drought pattern in the 2080s is less certain than for the 1961–1990 period, based on the Shannon entropy, but that droughts are expected to be more clustered and intermittent. The 10th and 50th quantiles of drought are likely higher in the 2080s scenarios, but there is no evidence showing the changes in the 90th quantile extreme droughts. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

月岭形成机制及其与潮汐力的相关性分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

韦蔚  刘少峰  王凯  奚晓旭  李力  焦中虎  吴志远 《现代地质》2012,26(1):198-204

月岭作为月表常见的线性构造类型之一,具有一定的分布规律。利用LRO(Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter)的DEM数据提取月岭剖面并进行了构造分析,认为月岭主体为逆冲断层叠加牵引褶皱的挤压构造形成机制。前人多用月海盆地沉降叠加月球热能收缩解释月岭的成因,但它无法解释盆地中央月岭呈近南北向的优选方位,这种现象可能是受到近东西向区域性挤压应力的影响,与潮汐力对月球中低纬度区域的应力作用状态相符,推测潮汐力可能是盆地中央月岭形成的主因。综合利用嫦娥一号CCD影像数据、Lunar Orbiter和LRO全色波段影像数据,解译识别出月球正面中低纬度1 464条月岭。对其进行方向统计,结果表明,月岭整体走向也与Melosh预测的在潮汐力作用下形成的构造样式相似。由此推测,月岭的展布与潮汐力具有很强的相关性,进一步论证了月岭的形成与潮汐力有关。  相似文献   

激发极化法测深曲线反演方法及对比分析     

柳建新  蔡盛  刘海飞  张维 《物探与化探》2012,36(6):956-959

在电阻率反演的基础上,运用等效电阻率进行激发极化法测深曲线的反演.通过对线性反演法、精确形式法、非线性反演法三种极化率反演方法的计算与分析,编制程序对水平层状模型进行反演,对比其在耗费时间和反演效果等方面的差别,认为非线性反演是理论上最好的方法,而在实际生产中建议采用线性反演方法.  相似文献   

河南祁雨沟金矿及外围高植被区遥感找矿预测   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

赵小星  钱建平  张渊  覃顺桥 《大地构造与成矿学》2012,36(4)

应用ENVI4.8软件,对河南嵩县祁雨沟金矿及外围ETM+遥感数据通过主成分分析、彩色合成、直方图拉伸、监督分类等方法,成功地提取了高植被覆盖区遥感影像上金的植物地球化学异常信息。利用卷积滤波和形态学分析方法进行线性构造解译,利用计盒维数法求得研究区的线性构造分维值,得出本区线性构造具有良好的统计自相似性和分形特征。比较线性构造分维等值线图和植物地球化学异常图可知,线性构造集中区与植被异常区基本吻合,区内已知85%以上的矿点分布于植被异常和线性构造集中区。综合分析地层岩性、岩浆岩、矿点、线性构造分维等值线特征和遥感植被异常特征等信息,圈出了三级9个找矿靶区。  相似文献   

南京河西粉质粘土物理力学指标统计分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

徐奋强  曹云 《水文地质工程地质》2012,39(1):65-67,88

根据南京河西地区粉质粘土的土工试验资料,对其物理、力学指标进行统计分析,研究土体的力学指标与物理指标的变异性及相关性,采用回归分析的方法对土的物理和力学性质指标进行线性回归分析,给出相应的数学回归方程式和相关系数。结论可作为区域性地基基础可靠性设计相关参数选取的依据。  相似文献   

引入拉格朗日算子的最佳线性回归模型选择     

闫广峰  岑敏仪 《大地测量与地球动力学》2021,41(11):1111-1117

基于同时考虑自变量和因变量测量误差的线性回归模型,首先将众多待选模型统一为附有约束条件的线性回归模型,然后采用含有多个备选假设的假设检验理论,并以拉格朗日算子构造假设检验统计量,提出最佳线性回归模型选择方法。实验结果表明,该算法可以获得符合观测数据实际的最佳线性回归模型,而且较改进后的线性假设法更简便。  相似文献   

Moment inequality and complete convergence of moving average processes under asymptotically linear negative quadrant dependence assumptions     

Guang-hui Cai  Hang Wu 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2006,20(1-2):1-5

Let {Y, Y _i , −∞ < i < ∞} be a doubly infinite sequence of identically distributed and asymptotically linear negative quadrant dependence random variables, {a _i , −∞ < i < ∞} an absolutely summable sequence of real numbers. We are inspired by Wang et al. (Econometric Theory 18:119–139, 2002) and Salvadori (Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 17:116–140, 2003). And Salvadori (Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 17:116–140, 2003) have obtained Linear combinations of order statistics to estimate the quantiles of generalized pareto and extreme values distributions. In this paper, we prove the complete convergence of under some suitable conditions. The results obtained improve and generalize the results of Li et al. (1992) and Zhang (1996). The results obtained extend those for negative associated sequences and ρ^*-mixing sequences. CIC Number O211, AMS (2000) Subject Classification 60F15, 60G50 Research supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China  相似文献   

无人机影像和机载激光雷达技术在南方线状工程带状地形图中的应用     

皮鹤  唐世豪 《测绘与空间地理信息》2022,(2):34-36

将通过控制点精度检验和碎部控制点精度检验分析,基于无人机影像数据和无人机激光雷达技术制作的1:500大比例尺地形图精度,结果显示,无论控制点还是碎部点,其平面位置精度完全满足1:500比例尺地形图的要求;其高程精度方面,控制点和平地碎部点的高程精度也满足1:500比例尺地形图的要求,高山地区的碎部控制点精度基本满足1:...  相似文献