Long-term changes (1980–2003) in total ozone time series over Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes     

Małgorzata Białek 《Acta Geophysica》2006,54(1):60-70

Long-term changes in total ozone time series for Arosa, Belsk, Boulder and Sapporo stations are examined. For each station we analyze time series of the following statistical characteristics of the distribution of daily ozone data: seasonal mean, standard deviation, maximum and minimum of total daily ozone values for all seasons. The iterative statistical model is proposed to estimate trends and long-term changes in the statistical distribution of the daily total ozone data. The trends are calculated for the period 1980–2003. We observe lessening of negative trends in the seasonal means as compared to those calculated by WMO for 1980–2000. We discuss a possibility of a change of the distribution shape of ozone daily data using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and comparing trend values in the seasonal mean, standard deviation, maximum and minimum time series for the selected stations and seasons. The distribution shift toward lower values without a change in the distribution shape is suggested with the following exceptions: the spreading of the distribution toward lower values for Belsk during winter and no decisive result for Sapporo and Boulder in summer.  相似文献   

Spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation trends in the Yangtze River catchment   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：2  

Stefan Becker  Marco Gemmer  Tong Jiang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2006,20(6):435-444

Precipitation trends in the Yangtze River catchment (PR China) have been analyzed for the past 50 years by applying the Mann-Kendall trend test and geospatial analyses. Monthly precipitation trends of 36 stations have been calculated. Significant positive trends at many stations can be observed for the summer months, which naturally show precipitation maxima. They were preceded and/or followed by negative trends. This observation points towards a concentration of summer precipitation within a shorter period of time. The analysis of a second data set on a gridded basis with 0.5° resolution reveals trends with distinct spatial patterns. The combination of classic trend tests and spatially interpolated precipitation data sets allows the spatiotemporal visualization of detected trends. Months with positive trends emphasize the aggravation of severe situation in a region, which is particularly prone to flood disasters during summer. Reasons for the observed trends were found in variations in the meridional wind pattern at the 850 hPa level, which account for an increased transport of warm moist air to the Yangtze River catchment during the summer months.  相似文献   

东亚南北地震带大震活动性研究   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

黄圣睦  董瑞英  张永久 《地震研究》2006,29(3):304-311

根据中国南北地震带与青藏-印尼“歹”字型构造带在成因上的联系，提出东亚南北地震带的观点，认为该地震带包含蒙古、中国西部、缅甸和印尼苏门答腊地区。研究了该带大地震活动的同步性、主体活动区的有序转移、大地震之间的多次相关迁移与重复等特征，并划分出了该带的5个大震活跃幕：1887-1912年、1913-1937年、1938-1957年、1958-1976年、1977-2005年。苏门答腊2004年12月26日8．7级和2005年3月29日8．5级巨震标志着该地震带最近一次以主体活动区南移到苏门答腊为特征的活跃时段即将结束。尽管未来一、两年内地震带的中部存在发生7级地震的有利时段，但结合强震图像异常指标反映的孕震状况分析，未来7级地震危险区尚不明朗。  相似文献   

小波变换在东北地震趋势分析中的应用     

孙文福  张国生 《东北地震研究》2006,22(3):33-37

本文在多年对东北地震大形势研究基础上,根据1900年以来东北地区地震目录资料,按年最大震级、地震频度和地震活动度分别建立三个时间序列f(t),利用离散小波变换对其进行分解,结果发现三个序列的小波变换细节系数均显示平均约20年周期的时序特征,并与该区地震活跃期符合得较好。依此,对该区地震活动发展趋势作了预测,认为当前地震活跃期大约在2008年结束。  相似文献   

The influence of grain-size analysis methods and sediment mixing on curve shapes and textural parameters: Implications for sediment trend analysis   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Burghard W. Flemming 《Sedimentary Geology》2007,202(3):425-435

To this day, deterministic physical models capable of explaining the evolution of grain-size distributions in the course of transport are still lacking. For this reason, various attributes of particle frequency distributions, in particular curve shapes and textural parameters, have for many decades been investigated for potential information about transport behaviour and size-sorting processes of sediments in numerous environments. Such approaches are essentially conceptual and hence rely heavily on the validity of the assumptions on which they are based. A factor which has to date been largely ignored in this context, is the fact that different methods of grain-size analysis (e. g. sieving, laser absorption and diffraction, settling velocity measurements), when applied to the same sample material, produce variable curve shapes, and hence incongruous textural data. This is illustrated by selected examples showing the differences between sieving and settling results, conversion of settling velocities into equivalent settling diameters (psi-phi-transformations), and the influences of particle shape, particle density, and water temperature. It is demonstrated that particle-size distributions are not only method-dependent but also dependent on the adopted post-processing procedure. As a result, only frequency curves generated by the same method and subsequently processed by identical computational procedures can be meaningfully compared. Furthermore, the computation of textural parameters from bi- or multimodal size distributions produces spurious results which are unrelated to the processes leading to the mixing of different size populations frequently observed in nature. In such cases, only the decomposition of such distributions into individual populations and the spatial comparison of such populations makes any sense. Because a physical explanation for the generation of size distributions is lacking, a particular curve shape of a grain-size population has no meaning on its own. Only a systematic comparison of progressively changing curve shapes (and associated textural parameters) of sediments collected on a closely spaced grid can yield data suitable for sediment trend analysis.  相似文献   

铅锌资源供需形势分析及市场前景预测   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

吴荣庆  张燕如  张安宁 《江苏地质》2007,31(1):59-63

从资源保证程度、找矿前景、冶炼原料和金属产品的生产与需求、市场价格的变化趋势等几个方面,对铅锌资源的国内外市场的供需形势进行分析,并对其未来5年的市场前景进行了初步的预测。  相似文献   

四川九寨沟景观形成演化趋势分析及评价   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

张瑞英  何政伟 《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2007,18(1):54-58

九寨沟风景名胜区是世界级旅游精品,正确认识九寨沟风景名胜区自然和人为的影响因素的发展变化,对景区的保护意义重大。首先,文章从地层岩性、地质构造、地形条件、第四纪冰川作用和地质灾害等方面详细阐述了地质环境条件对九寨沟景观的形成作用。然后,笔者从地下水岩溶通道的发育、钙华景观演化和湖泊泥沙沉积等方面分析了九寨沟地质环境演化趋势,九寨沟的地下水岩溶通道发育和钙华景观演化处于青壮年期,湖泊泥沙沉积缓慢。最后,作者分析了九寨沟景区的降水变化趋势和周期变化、生态环境的改变状态。通过上述分析,得出了九寨沟风景名胜区景观变化处于相对稳定状态的结论,证实了目前的一些景观退化与大自然的变化趋势是一致的,九寨沟核心景区的生命力尚处于青壮年阶段。  相似文献   

华北和印度夏季风降水变化的对比分析   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

郝立生  闵锦忠  姚学祥 《气候变化研究进展》2007,3(5):271-275

 利用华北和印度夏季降水资料，采用趋势分析、小波变换等方法，对两地区夏季风降水进行了对比分析。结果表明：1) 华北和印度夏季风降水量都存在线性减少倾向，但华北更为显著，减少达16 mm/10 a；2) 华北和印度夏季风降水变化都以18 a周期为主，近年都有逐渐缩短的趋势，而印度的这种周期缩短得比华北更快，近年降水变化周期接近15 a；3) 华北和印度夏季风降水变化在1956、1976、1992/1993年发生了趋势转折；4) 华北和印度降水量主要集中在6-9月，夏季风降水特征非常明显，但两地变化特征表现不尽相同。  相似文献   

长江三角洲地区对流层臭氧的变化趋势     

徐晓斌  林伟立  王韬  Meng Zhaoyang  Wang Ying 《气候变化研究进展》2007,3(Z1):60-65

Analysis of tropospheric ozone residual (TOR) data from satellite measurements indicates an increasing trend of tropospheric ozone over the Yangtze Delta region of China. The increasing trend can be derived both from the annual mean TOR and from the monthly mean TOR except for January and March. The increase rate of the decadal mean TOR was 0.82 DU during 1978-2000. The impact of this long-term trend on the climate and atmospheric oxidizing capacity over the region should be further studied. Data comparison shows a significant correlation between the TOR and surface ozone data collected at Lin'an background station in the Yangtze Delta region, suggesting an internal connection between both quantities.  相似文献   

山东省近55年夏季降水和平均气温的多时间尺度分析     

王业宏  孙兴池  高慧君 《山东气象》2007,27(3):10-13

利用最近55a山东夏季降水和平均气温资料，统计分析了降水和平均气温的变化特征，并用Meyer小波变换方法，对山东省夏季降水和平均气温进行了分析，发现山东夏季降水呈明显下降趋势，气温略呈上升趋势。小波分析显示两者在中短周期上基本一致，即它们的中短周期基本在11a，5～6a和2～3a左右的时间尺度上变动。而这些基本周期正是太阳黑子活动和海气相互作用的周期，说明山东省夏季降水和平均气温的周期变化主要受太阳黑子活动和海-气相互作用的影响。  相似文献