赤道太平洋对流活动异常对我国夏季降水和气温的影响     

郭艳君  倪允琪 《气象》1998,24(6):11-16

利用月平均ＯＬＲ、降水和气温资料,研究了ＥＮＳＯ期间赤道太平洋对流活动与我国夏季降水和气温的关系。结果表明：春季、夏季中、西太平洋对流活动异常与我国夏季江淮地区的降水有密切关系;春季和前一年冬季西太平洋对流活动异常与东北地区夏季降水有显著相关。前一年冬季中、西太平洋对流活动异常与我国降水的显著相关区是不同的,前者为华南、西南地区,后者为东北至内蒙古一带。气温与同期中、西太平洋对流活动的相关不显著。  相似文献   

The role of anthropogenic activities in karst spring discharge volatility          下载免费PDF全文

Jing Wu  Jian Yin  Yonghong Hao  Yan Liu  Yonghui Fan  Xueli Huo  Youcun Liu  Tian‐Chyi J. Yeh 《水文研究》2015,29(13):2855-2866

The traditional hydrological time series methods tend to focus on the mean of whichever variable is analysed but neglect its time‐varying variance (i.e. assuming the variance remains constant). The variances of hydrological time series vary with time under anthropogenic influence. There is evidence that extensive well drilling and groundwater pumping can intercept groundwater run‐off and consequently induce spring discharge volatility or variance varying with time (i.e. heteroskedasticity). To investigate the time‐varying variance or heteroskedasticity of spring discharge, this paper presents a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with general autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (SARIMA‐GARCH) model, whose the SARIMA model is used to estimate the mean of hydrological time series, and the GARCH model estimates its time‐varying variance. The SARIMA‐GARCH model was then applied to the Xin'an Springs Basin, China, where extensive groundwater development has occurred since 1978 (e.g. the average annual groundwater pumping rates were less than 0.20 m³/s in the 1970s, reached 1.20 m³/s at the end of the 1980s, surpassed 2.0 m³/s in the 1990s and exceeded 3.0 m³/s by 2007). To identify whether human activities or natural stressors caused the heteroskedasticity of Xin'an Springs discharge, we segmented the spring discharge sequence into two periods: a predevelopment stage (i.e. 1956–1977) and a developed stage (i.e. 1978–2012), and set up the SARIMA‐GARCH model for the two stages, respectively. By comparing the models, we detected the role of human activities in spring discharge volatility. The results showed that human activities caused the heteroskedasticity of the Xin'an Spring discharge. The predicted Xin'an Springs discharge by the SARIMA‐GARCH model showed that the mean monthly spring discharge is predicted to continue to decline to 0.93 m³/s in 2013, 0.67 m³/s in 2014 and 0.73 m³/s in 2015. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Impact of Human Activities on Depositional Process of Tidal Flat in Quanzhou Bay of China   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

WANG Aijun 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2007,17(3):265-269

As a very important component of a coastal system,tidal flats come to be a focus of the studies on land-ocean interaction in the coastal zone because those areas are subjected to intense human activities and are highly sensitive to the global change.The Quanzhou Bay,located along the middle part of Fujian coast of China,covers about 136.4km2,and the area of coastal wetland in the entire bay from intertidal to subtidal with 6m of water depth accounts for 96% of the total area.Seven short cores were collected and divided in situ with the interval of 5cm on the coastal wetlands of Quanzhou Bay on April 19,2006.The sediment samples were scattered and the grain sizes were measured by using Mastersizer 2000.Human beings' activities on tidal flat have disturbed the vertical distribution of sediments in stratigraphic sequence and accelerated the sedimentation rates.Grain size analysis results show that the grain size diameters increase and sediment becomes worse sorted towards the sea under the strong human disturbance;Spartina alterniflora can play a role of trapping the fine sediment;but near the bank,the sediment becomes coarse and there are two peak values on frequency curve influenced by the sandpile.The trough formed by human activities along the coastline changes the transport path of water and suspended sediment.The sediments are transported through the trough and deposit in it during the flood;the ebb flow is retarded by the flow output through the adjacent trough,and the deposited sediment can not be re-suspended;then,the sedimentation rate increases.In situ observation show that the sedimentation rate is about 8-10cm/yr.  相似文献   

Five-year bio-monitoring of aquatic ecosystems near Artigas Antarctic Scientific Base,King George Island     

Mara A Morel  Victoria Braa  Cecilia Martnez-Rosales  Clica Cagide  Susana Castro-Sowinski 《极地研究(英文版)》2015,(1)

Fildes Peninsula, in King George Island, Antarctica, has a great concentration of international facilities, and it has clearly been affected by human activities. The objective of this 5-year study was ...  相似文献   

Impacts of anthropogenic activities on the Changjiang(Yangtze)estuarine ecosystem(1998–2012)   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

陈东  戴志军  徐韧  李道季  梅学菲 《海洋学报(英文版)》2015,34(6):86-93

Estuarine ecosystem has greatly changed in the recent decades due to anthropogenic perturbations in the Changjiang Estuary. Change patterns and impact factors were analyzed based on the continuous data...  相似文献   

现代河流沉积物碎屑及矿物组分研究新进展     

梁文栋  胡修棉 《地质学报》2023,97(9):2975-2991

现代河流沉积物忠实地记录了流域盆地内的母岩、风化、搬运和沉积过程中的化学、物理过程以及人类活动的改造作用,是探索和验证源- 汇系统等理论的重要媒介。本文以全球现代河流砂组分数据库为基础,总结了碎屑组分、重矿物组分在不同大陆的分布特征,探讨了其在物源识别、源区贡献率计算、沉积物产生及搬运过程中气候- 构造等影响因素的评估、对源- 汇系统的研究启示等方面的应用。今后建议加强基于大数据的沉积物组分对气候- 构造- 人类活动的响应、沉积物产生及通量、高时间分辨率的沉积物组分变异性、不同物源定量化方法的差异等方面的研究。  相似文献   

气候变化与人类活动联合影响下东江流域非一致性洪水频率   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

顾西辉  张强  陈晓宏  江涛 《热带地理》2014,(6)

一致性假设一直是洪水频率分析的基本假设条件,但在气候变化与人类活动综合影响下,水文极值序列的一致性假设受到极大挑战。基于此,以东江流域为例,运用GAMLSS模型(广义可加模型),将时间、气候指标(北极涛动AO、北太平洋涛动NPO、太平洋年代际振荡PDO和南方涛动SOI)以及水库指标(Reservoir Index)统一纳入洪水频率分析中,并对东江流域1954―2009年年最大流量序列(AMS)进行频率分析,结果表明:1)龙川、河源和岭下站年最大流量序列均值与时间呈线性关系,方差为常量,而博罗站均值和方差与时间均呈非线性关系;2)水库对各水文站点AMS均值有显著线性影响;3)NPO对各站点AMS均值有显著线性影响,NPO值较高时,东江流域可能面临着较低的洪水风险,在一致性假设前提下,可能高估洪水设计值,反之亦然;而PDO对各站点方差有显著线性(岭下、博罗)/非线性(龙川、河源)影响;4)以时间为协变量构建非一致性模型,研究得出:龙川、河源和岭下3站T年一遇洪水设计值均呈单调下降趋势,博罗站1954―1995年左右洪水设计值呈下降趋势,而在1996―2009年呈上升趋势;以气候与水库为协变量构建非一致性模型,研究表明:龙川、河源和岭下3站T年一遇洪水设计值均因水库影响呈向下跃变;5)以气候和水库为协变量的非一致性模型对洪水频率具有良好的预测能力,为非一致条件下设计洪水的预测提供了新的预测方法。  相似文献   

800年来苏北废黄河三角洲的演变模式     

张林  陈沈良  刘小喜 《海洋与湖沼》2014,45(3):626-636

根据历史资料、数据和相关研究,结合研究区域背景,分析苏北废黄河三角洲的演变。结果显示,岸线演变在发育阶段和侵蚀阶段分别为向海延伸约90 km和侵蚀后退约22 km,面积相差约800 km2,三角洲地貌演变表现为岸线平直-曲折-平滑-平直的过程。在废三角洲陆海相互作用的基础上,运用演化模式分析三角洲的演变过程。该三角洲演变可以分为7个演变阶段,发育期在径流和潮流作用下以沙洲并陆淤积延伸方式进行,侵蚀期在波浪和潮流作用下以沙洲合并侵蚀后退和淤积外长交替侵蚀的方式。泥沙输运、人类活动和气候变化对废三角洲的演变有重要影响,巨量的来沙是三角洲发育的原因,泥沙平衡被打破是侵蚀的主要原因。发育期中,泥沙输运影响淤积速度和位置,人类活动和气候变化影响黄河河道迁移、输沙量和产沙量;侵蚀期中,泥沙输运影响侵蚀状态,人类活动在一定程度上影响海岸带冲/淤,气候变化将影响三角洲的演变趋势。  相似文献   

The mechanism of post-rift fault activities in Baiyun sag,Pearl River Mouth basin     

《Journal of Asian Earth Sciences》2014

Post-rift fault activities were often observed in deepwater basins, which have great contributions to oil and gas migration and accumulation. The main causes for post-rift fault activities include tectonic events, mud or salt diapirs, and gravitational collapse. In the South China Sea continental margin, post-rift fault activities are widely distributed, especially in Baiyun sag, one of the largest deepwater sag with its main body located beneath present continental slope. During the post-rift stage, large population of faults kept active for a long time from 32 Ma (T70) till 5.5 Ma (T10). Seismic interpretation, fault analysis and analogue modeling experiments indicate that the post-rift fault activities in Baiyun sag between 32 Ma (T70) and 13.8 Ma (T30) was mainly controlled by gravity pointing to the Main Baiyun sag, which caused the faults extensive on the side facing Main Baiyun sag and the back side compressive. Around 32 Ma (T70), the breakup of the continental margin and the spreading of the South China Sea shed a combined effect of weak compression toward Baiyun sag. The gravity during post-rift stage might be caused by discrepant subsidence and sedimentation between strongly thinned sag center and wing areas. This is supported by positive relationship between sedimentation rate and fault growth index. After 13.8 Ma (T30), fault activity shows negative relationship with sedimentation rate. Compressive uplift and erosion in seismic profiles as well as negative tectonic subsiding rates suggest that the fault activity from 13.8 Ma (T30) to 5.5 Ma (T10) might be controlled by the subductive compression from the Philippine plate in the east.  相似文献   

青藏高原东北部甘加盆地古梯田地层与年代初探     

张陈彬  吴铎  陈雪梅  袁子杰  陈发虎 《地理学报》2022,77(1):66-78

梯田是人类几千年来利用和改造自然能力的象征,在人类社会发展中发挥了重要的作用。甘加盆地位于青藏高原东北部甘肃省夏河县,盆地内的丘陵、山麓地带分布大面积的层状梯形景观,疑似弃耕的古代梯田。本文在实地考察的基础上,基于卫星遥感资料,通过GIS手段分析发现古梯田面积为42.2 km²（约63000亩）,主要分布在盆地内央曲河及其支流两侧海拔2936~3326 m间的山坡上。通过对3个古梯田剖面样品的磁化率、总有机碳/氮（TOC、TN）含量、孢粉、粒度等环境代用指标分析,同时对比具有准确年代控制的自然剖面磁化率与粒度。研究结果显示：梯田开垦于晚全新世（距今3000 a）古土壤,梯田剖面顶部25~35 cm不同于自然剖面而呈均一化的指标证实了耕作层的存在（距今约1000 a以下层位）;但耕作层之上TOC、TN含量的增多,以及梯田剖面与自然剖面整体一致的指标变化趋势说明了梯田被短期利用后长期废弃;结合历史文献资料推断夏河古梯田是在北宋“弓箭手屯田”制度（1074—1125年）下开垦的;气候重建资料显示该时段温度较高、降水增加,整体有益于农业生产。本文提供了过去人类社会适应气候变化的典型案例。  相似文献