基于地理模拟方法的昆明市空间拓展情景分析     

赵耀龙  张珂  彭永俊  付迎春  张洪 《地理研究》2014,33(1):119-131

改革开放以来,西部高原湖滨城市经历的快速城镇化进程给湖泊流域带来了较为严重的生态环境问题,未来城市空间发展政策的调整需要关注城市空间拓展对区域生态环境的影响。以位于滇池湖滨地区的昆明市为例,设定6种不用的城市空间拓展政策情景,应用SLEUTH模型预测了6种情景下未来20年的城市空间格局,采用空间指数和空间分析方法对预测结果进行了分析评价。结果表明：昆明市城市建成区具有典型的摊大饼式空间拓展模式,城市道路网对城市形态具有重要的影响。6种情景模式下未来昆明市建成区空间格局既有相似性,也表现出显著的差异。城市建设用地空间格局总体上呈集约、紧凑型的发展趋势。生态保护与城市发展管制相结合的政策情景对滇池湖滨地区的景观影响最小。多中心城市发展格局和城市发展管制相结合的政策情景对城市总体空间规模的控制具有明显的效果,但不宜在湖滨地区实施。滇池湖滨地区需要划定景观或生态保护区,严格禁止城市建设用地对湖滨用地景观的占用与分割。滇池湖滨以外的区域,适宜执行生态保护与城市发展管制相结合的多中心发展模式。  相似文献   

Large in‐stream wood studies: a call for common metrics     

Ellen Wohl  Daniel A. Cenderelli  Kathleen A. Dwire  Sandra E. Ryan‐Burkett  Michael K. Young  Kurt D. Fausch 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2010,35(5):618-625

During the past decade, research on large in‐stream wood has expanded beyond North America's Pacific Northwest to diverse environments and has shifted toward increasingly holistic perspectives that incorporate processes of wood recruitment, retention, and loss at scales from channel segments to entire watersheds. Syntheses of this rapidly expanding literature can be facilitated by agreement on primary variables and methods of measurement. In this paper we address these issues by listing the variables that we consider fundamental to studies of in‐stream wood, discussing the sources of variability in their measurement, and suggesting more consistency in future studies. We recommend 23 variables for all studies of in‐stream wood, as well as another 12 variables that we suggest for studies with more specific objectives. Each of these variables relates either to the size and characteristics of in‐stream wood, to the geomorphic features of the channel and valley, or to the ecological characteristics of the riparian zone adjacent to the study reach. The variables were derived from an overview of those cited in the literature and from our collective field experiences. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

No peace for the forest: Rapid,widespread land changes in the Andes-Amazon region following the Colombian civil war     

《Global Environmental Change》2021

Negative environmental impacts of violent conflict have been observed worldwide. Whether or not active global conflicts are declining in number remains hotly debated, the number of countries entering post-conflict periods is on the rise, and the impact of this transition on land cover changes remains poorly understood. In Colombia, though large-scale armed conflict has concluded, the post-conflict period represents an ongoing threat to forest conservation, putting at risk commitments to meet global conservation goals and even those stipulated in the peace accord. This paper aims to assess land cover change associated with the Colombian conflict in the Andes-Amazon region between 1988 and 2019. First, we use the Landsat archive to map land cover and characterize the spatial patterns of change at the regional level. Second, to empirically identify the effect of conflict on land cover change, we employ a difference-in-difference approach using local conflict events data. During conflict (1988–2011), land cover in the Andes-Amazon remained relatively stable, however during the post-conflict period (2012–2019), the conversion from forest to agriculture increased by 40%. We find that forest cover surrounding conflict events (1 km radius) decreased significantly, on average by ~ 19% during conflict, which accelerated to ~ 30% in the post-conflict period. Similarly, agriculture expansion is most substantial during the post-conflict period, but exclusively in municipalities with population below the 50th percentile. Landscape metrics show that in peripheral municipalities (<50th), agriculture occurs in clumped distributions during the conflict period. Meanwhile, during the post-conflict period, this expansion happens more quickly, with significantly greater agricultural patch sizes than during the conflict period. We conclude that a slow implementation of conservation governance, the emergence of illegal land markets, and illicit land uses (i.e., coca and illegal cattle ranching) may accelerate land cover change in the coming years.  相似文献   

Changes in the North Sea fish community: evidence of indirect effects of fishing?   总被引：7，自引：4，他引：7  

Daan  Niels; Gislason  Henrik; G. Pope  John; C. Rice  Jake 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2005,62(2):177-188

  相似文献   

Introducing landscape accuracy metric for spatial performance evaluation of land use/land cover change models     

Bahman Jabbarian Amiri  Ali Asgarian  Yousef Sakieh 《国际地球制图》2017,32(11):1171-1187

Performance evaluation is a critical step for land use/land cover (LULC) change modelling. It can be conducted through pixel quantity and its geographical location according to majority of current approaches. It is hence important to know to what extent spatial patterns of a given landscape are properly replicated in simulated LULC maps. Therefore, a new validation metric, named as landscape accuracy metric (LAM), is introduced by inspiration from landscape ecology. Unlike pixel quantity validation metrics, model performance is measured by LAM through quantifying spatial patterns including structure, composition and configuration attributes. The functionality of LAM was studied to assess the performance of the built-up change simulation under historical, ecological and stochastic scenarios, applying Cellular Automata Markov model. LAM is a flexible measure such that modellers can apply this metric through adding or eliminating various metrics of their interest in a selective manner and under different environmental circumstances.  相似文献   

Measuring the relationships between landscape aesthetics suitability and spatial patterns of urbanized lands: an informed modelling framework for developing urban growth scenarios     

Yousef Sakieh  Abdolrassoul Salmanmahiny  Seyed Hamed Mirkarimi  Sepideh Saeidi 《国际地球制图》2017,32(8):853-873

This study develops an informed modelling approach that follows a bottom-up planning strategy to define plausible urban growth scenarios. In this case, landscape aesthetics suitability of the area was first generated using multi-criteria evaluation method. Then, a buffer zone of 1 km was considered to extract the average values of aesthetics suitability scores surrounding urban patches with medium physical size (10–30 hectares). The averaged values were considered as the dependent variable. In the next step, landscape metrics of these urban patches, as explanatory variables, were also computed to measure compositional and configuration-based attributes of urban clusters. Bivariate associations (Pearson correlation analysis) and statistical relationships (linear regression algorithm) between landscape metrics and their associated aesthetics values were measured and modelled. According to the results, both composition and configuration values are significantly correlated to the dependent variable in which configuration-based attributes depicted a stronger explanatory power.  相似文献   

Landscape metrics for three-dimensional urban building pattern recognition     

《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2017

Understanding how landscape pattern determines population or ecosystem dynamics is crucial for managing our landscapes. Urban areas are becoming increasingly dominant social-ecological systems, so it is important to understand patterns of urbanization. Most studies of urban landscape pattern examine land-use maps in two dimensions because the acquisition of 3-dimensional information is difficult. We used Brista software based on Quickbird images and aerial photos to interpret the height of buildings, thus incorporating a 3-dimensional approach. We estimated the feasibility and accuracy of this approach. A total of 164,345 buildings in the Liaoning central urban agglomeration of China, which included seven cities, were measured. Twelve landscape metrics were proposed or chosen to describe the urban landscape patterns in 2- and 3-dimensional scales. The ecological and social meaning of landscape metrics were analyzed with multiple correlation analysis. The results showed that classification accuracy compared with field surveys was 87.6%, which means this method for interpreting building height was acceptable. The metrics effectively reflected the urban architecture in relation to number of buildings, area, height, 3-D shape and diversity aspects. We were able to describe the urban characteristics of each city with these metrics. The metrics also captured ecological and social meanings. The proposed landscape metrics provided a new method for urban landscape analysis in three dimensions.  相似文献   

超短期风速预报方法研究进展     

陈学君  李仲龙 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2018,12(6):84-92

综合分析国内外风速预报相关文献,从物理方法、统计与机器学习方法、组合方法3个方面对超短期风速预报方法的研究现状进行归纳总结,对比了主要预报方法的优缺点,给出了不确定分析和误差评价指标,探讨了在超短期风速预报研究中应重点解决的问题和发展方向。  相似文献   

Examining the distribution and dynamics of impervious surface in different function zones in Beijing     

Kun Qiao  Wenquan Zhu  Deyong Hu  Ming Hao  Shanshan Chen  Shisong Cao 《地理学报(英文版)》2018,28(5):669-684

Impervious surface (IS) is often recognized as the indicator of urban environmental changes. Numerous research efforts have been devoted to studying its spatio-temporal dynamics and ecological effects, especially for the IS in Beijing metropolitan region. However, most previous studies primarily considered the Beijing metropolitan region as a whole without considering the differences and heterogeneity among the function zones. In this study, the subpixel impervious surface results in Beijing within a time series (1991, 2001, 2005, 2011 and 2015) were extracted by means of the classification and regression tree (CART) model combined with change detection models. Then based on the method of standard deviation ellipse, Lorenz curve, contribution index (CI) and landscape metrics, the spatio-temporal dynamics and variations of IS (1991, 2001, 2011 and 2015) in different function zones and districts were analyzed. It is found that the total area of impervious surface in Beijing increased dramatically during the study period, increasing about 144.18%. The deflection angle of major axis of standard deviation ellipse decreased from 47.15° to 38.82°, indicating the major development axis in Beijing gradually moved from northeast-southwest to north-south. Moreover, the heterogeneity of impervious surface’s distribution among 16 districts weakened gradually, but the CI values and landscape metrics in four function zones differed greatly. The urban function extended zone (UFEZ), the main source of the growth of IS in Beijing, had the highest CI values. Its lowest CI value was 1.79 that is still much higher than the highest CI value in other function zones. The core function zone (CFZ), the traditional aggregation zone of impervious surface, had the highest contagion index (CONTAG) values, but it contributed less than UFEZ due to its small area. The CI value of the new urban developed zone (NUDZ) increased rapidly, and it increased from negative to positive and multiplied, becoming an important contributor to the rise of urban impervious surface. However, the ecological conservation zone (ECZ) had a constant negative contribution all the time, and its CI value decreased gradually. Moreover, the landscape metrics and centroids of impervious surface in different density classes differed greatly. The high-density impervious surface had a more compact configuration and a greater impact on the eco-environment.  相似文献   

Investigation of terrain illumination effects on vegetation indices and VI-derived phenological metrics in subtropical deciduous forests     

Lênio Soares Galvão  Fábio Marcelo Breunig  Thiago Sousa Teles  William Gaida  Rafaelo Balbinot 《地理信息系统科学与遥感》2016,53(3):360-381

We used RapidEye and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)/Terra data to study terrain illumination effects on 3 vegetation indices (VIs) and 11 phenological metrics over seasonal deciduous forests in southern Brazil. We applied TIMESAT for the analysis of the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from the MOD13Q1 product to calculate phenological metrics. We related the VIs with the cosine of the incidence angle i (Cos i) and inspected percentage changes in VIs before and after topographic C-correction. The results showed that the EVI was more sensitive to seasonal changes in canopy biophysical attributes than the NDVI and Red-Edge NDVI, as indicated by analysis of non-topographically corrected RapidEye images from the summer and winter. On the other hand, the EVI was more sensitive to terrain illumination, presenting higher correlation coefficients with Cos i that decreased with reduction in the canopy background L factor. After C-correction, the RapidEye Red-Edge NDVI, NDVI, and EVI decreased 2%, 1%, and 13% over sunlit surfaces and increased up to 5%, 14%, and 89% over shaded surfaces, respectively. The EVI-related phenological metrics were also much more affected by topographic effects than the NDVI-derived metrics. From the set of 11 metrics, the 2 that described the period of lower photosynthetic activity and seasonal VI amplitude presented the largest correlation coefficients with Cos i. The results showed that terrain illumination is a factor of spectral variability in the seasonal analysis of phenological metrics, especially for VIs that are not spectrally normalized.  相似文献