Comparison of precipitation extremes estimation using parametric and nonparametric methods     

Jan Holešovský  Michal Fusek  Vít Blachut  Jaroslav Michálek 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(13):2376-2386

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Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity modelling of hydrologic time series   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

R. Modarres  T. B. M. J. Ouarda 《水文研究》2013,27(22):3174-3191

The existence of time‐dependent variance or conditional variance, commonly called heteroscedasticity, in hydrologic time series has not been thoroughly investigated. This paper deals with modelling the heteroscedasticity in the residuals of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model using a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model. The model is applied to two monthly rainfall time series from humid and arid regions. The effect of Box–Cox transformation and seasonal differencing on the remaining seasonal heteroscedasticity in the residuals of the SARIMA model is also investigated. It is shown that the seasonal heteroscedasticity in the residuals of the SARIMA model can be removed using Box–Cox transformation along with seasonal differencing for the humid region rainfall. On the other hand, transformation and seasonal differencing could not remove heteroscedasticity from the residuals of the SARIMA model fitted to rainfall data in the arid region. Therefore, the GARCH modelling approach is necessary to capture the heteroscedasticity remaining in the residuals of a SARIMA model. However, the evaluation criteria do not necessarily show that the GARCH model improves the performance of the SARIMA model. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Reconstruction of groundwater levels to impute missing values using singular and multichannel spectrum analysis: application to the Ardabil Plain,Iran     

Majid Taie Semiromi  M. Koch 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(14):1711-1726

ABSTRACT

Groundwater-level time series often have a substantial number of missing values which should be taken into consideration before using them for further analysis, particularly for numerical groundwater flow modelling applications. This study aims to comprehensively compare two data-driven models, singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and multichannel spectrum analysis (MSSA), to reconstruct groundwater-level time series and impute the missing values for 25 piezometric stations in Ardabil Plain, northwest Iran. The reconstructed groundwater-level time series are assessed against the complete observed groundwater time series, while the imputed values are appraised against the artificially created gap values. The results show that both SSA and MSSA demonstrate a solid competency in imputation and reconstruction of groundwater-level data. However, depending on the spatial correlation between the piezometers, and the most suitable probability distribution function (pdf) fitted to the time series of each piezometer, the performance may vary from piezometer to piezometer.  相似文献   

Appropriate monitoring techniques using bomb tritium and other geochemical parameters in hydrogeological investigations     

BONIFACE C. E. EGBOKA 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2):207-224

ABSTRACT

A critical review of earlier uses of bomb tritium spotlights problems in its applications that may result in erroneous interpretations. The old monitoring technique using boreholes causes mixing of groundwaters of different age zones. In this study, the mixing problem is overcome by using modern monitoring devices of multi-level samplers and bundle piezometers that yield groundwater samples of small volumes at closely-spaced intervals. The old method may be used to determine recharge and discharge areas of aquifers and used where pollution poses no serious threat. Otherwise, the major pumpage of the aquifer distorts and reverses flow directions, causes mixing of different waters and may spread the pollutants. The disadvantages of the modern method include its restricted use in shallow aquifers and porous media.  相似文献   

大气阻力引起卫星轨道衰减的数值模拟   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

尹凡  马淑英  李晶  冯定华  王西京  周云良 《地球物理学报》2013,56(12):3980-3987

本文以德国低轨道卫星CHAMP为例,联合考虑地球扁率和大气阻力摄动的影响,对相应摄动方程进行数值积分,计算轨道根数变化,并进而计算得到卫星空间位置,由此模拟考察大气阻力引起的轨道高度衰减.模拟中使用综合考虑了太阳辐射和磁暴等多种因素影响的最新国际大气标准JB2008模式来计算热层大气密度. 选取CHAMP卫星轨道高度自然衰减（无点火提升卫星高度操作）的2005全年进行模拟;为了考察不同年份阻力系数的可能变化,对2002年1—3月处在较大高度的轨道也进行了模拟.考虑到CHAMP卫星的特殊几何构形及飞行高度的热层温度条件,取阻力系数大于2.8,并在一定范围内变化,以求得模拟与实际轨道衰减符合较好.结果表明,对于2005年,阻力系数为2.91时模拟得到的轨道高度的衰减与实际轨道衰减符合得最好,模拟与实际轨道半长轴全年的标准偏差为81m;在卫星高度稍高的2002年,模拟的最佳阻力系数为3.0;模拟所得最佳阻力系数值比传统使用的值2.2大30%以上.由于在模拟中忽略了高阶保守力分量,所得近/远地点高度没有出现实际轨道所显示的周期性起伏.  相似文献   

基于环境激励的ERA方法在网架结构振动测试中的应用研究     

高永武  金波  侯钢领  刘明  刘国强 《地震工程与工程振动》2013,33(4)

基于环境激励的结构振动测试的方法中ERA方法是重要的时域分析方法.本文主要是以随机减量法(RD)和NExT两种数据处理方法结合ERA算法,对绥化学院正在建的网架结构的基本模态参数进行测试.通过分析比较得出RD/ERA和NExT/ERA较直接ERA有更高的精度,且实测分析结果与有限元分析结果较吻合.为网架结构在环境激励下用ERA方法测试模态参数提供了实验依据.  相似文献   

Spatial and temporal dust source variability in northern China identified using advanced remote sensing analysis   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

A. Taramelli  M. Pasqui  J. Barbour  D. Kirschbaum  L. Bottai  C. Busillo  F. Calastrini  F. Guarnieri  C. Small 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2013,38(8):793-809

The aim of this research is to provide a detailed characterization of spatial patterns and temporal trends in the regional and local dust source areas within the desert of the Alashan Prefecture (Inner Mongolia, China). This problem was approached through multi‐scale remote sensing analysis of vegetation changes. The primary requirements for this regional analysis are high spatial and spectral resolution data, accurate spectral calibration and good temporal resolution with a suitable temporal baseline. Landsat analysis and field validation along with the low spatial resolution classifications from MODIS and AVHRR are combined to provide a reliable characterization of the different potential dust‐producing sources. The representation of intra‐annual and inter‐annual Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) trend to assess land cover discrimination for mapping potential dust source using MODIS and AVHRR at larger scale is enhanced by Landsat Spectral Mixing Analysis (SMA). The combined methodology is to determine the extent to which Landsat can distinguish important soils types in order to better understand how soil reflectance behaves at seasonal and inter‐annual timescales. As a final result mapping soil surface properties using SMA is representative of responses of different land and soil cover previously identified by NDVI trend. The results could be used in dust emission models even if they are not reflecting aggregate formation, soil stability or particle coatings showing to be critical for accurately represent dust source over different regional and local emitting areas. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A) A. I. H. S. / A) A. I. H. S.     

W. H. Ward 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1):85-101

Abstract

A new method is presented to generate stationary multi-site hydrological time series. The proposed method can handle flexible time-step length, and it can be applied to both continuous and intermittent input series. The algorithm is a departure from standard decomposition models and the Box-Jenkins approach. It relies instead on the recent advances in statistical science that deal with generation of correlated random variables with arbitrary statistical distribution functions. The proposed method has been tested on 11 historic weekly input series, of which the first seven contain flow data and the last four have precipitation data. The article contains an extensive review of the results.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Ilich, N., 2014. An effective three-step algorithm for multi-site generation of stochastic weekly hydrological time series. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (1), 85–98.  相似文献   

Statistical interpretation of the daily variation of urban water consumption in Beijing,China     

Danwu Zhang  Zhentao Cong  Tie Chen  Tong Zhang 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1):181-192

Abstract

The efficient planning and design of water networks, as well as the management and strategies of existing water supply systems, require accurate short-term water demand forecasts. In this study, a statistical model for the estimation of daily urban water consumption was developed. The model was applied to analyse and forecast the daily water consumption in the main district of Beijing, China, from 2006 to 2010. The model exhibited good performance with a coefficient of determination, R², greater than 0.9 in both the calibration and validation periods. The results indicate that: (a) the 7-day moving average temperature is an efficient variable that can be used to depict water-use variation in a year; (b) a daily maximum temperature of 31.1°C and the occurrence of precipitation are two thresholds of water-use behaviour; and (c) the current day’s water consumption has a strong correlation with the consumption of one, two and seven days ago.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. Yang

Citation Zhang, D.W., et al., 2013. Statistical interpretation of the daily variation of urban water consumption in Beijing, China. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (1), 181–192.  相似文献