Efficient estimation of flood forecast prediction intervals via single‐ and multi‐objective versions of the LUBE method          下载免费PDF全文

Lei Ye  Jianzhong Zhou  Hoshin V. Gupta  Hairong Zhang  Xiaofan Zeng  Lu Chen 《水文研究》2016,30(15):2703-2716

Prediction intervals (PIs) are commonly used to quantify the accuracy and precision of a forecast. However, traditional ways to construct PIs typically require strong assumptions about data distribution and involve a large computational burden. Here, we improve upon the recent proposed Lower Upper Bound Estimation method and extend it to a multi‐objective framework. The proposed methods are demonstrated using a real‐world flood forecasting case study for the upper Yangtze River Watershed. Results indicate that the proposed methods are able to efficiently construct appropriate PIs, while outperforming other methods including the widely used Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation approach. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

基于线要素动态化简的匹配算法比较与评价     

陈竞男  钱海忠  王骁  何海威  胡慧明 《测绘科学技术学报》2016,(1)

矢量线要素数据来源多样,细节层次不一,限制了已有匹配算法正确率的提高,同时也给算法评价带来困难。化简可以减少线要素细节层次,提取其主要形态,据此提出一种基于线要素动态化简的匹配算法评价新方法。对不同匹配算法采用相同数据,在相同化简算法支撑下进行匹配,从而实现对不同匹配算法的评价。首先,阐述动态化简方法提取线要素主要形态的过程;其次,利用动态化简分别辅助4种已有匹配算法,获取每个匹配算法的最优匹配正确率;最后,将4种匹配算法的原始匹配结果与加入动态化简后的匹配结果进行对比,分析化简对匹配结果的影响,并把该影响运用到匹配算法的比较和评价中来。其中,1通过匹配正确率变化、误匹配等分析了匹配算法的数据适用性;2通过化简比例系数K变化时新增匹配数量的统计,评价了匹配算法对线要素局部细节的敏感程度并提出该指标的量化方法;3结合匹配算法采用的匹配相似度指标对其作出评价。  相似文献   

国家级格点化定量降水预报系统   总被引：10，自引：7，他引：3  

曹勇  刘凑华  宗志平  谌芸  代刊  陈涛  杨寅 《气象》2016,42(12):1476-1482

利用主客观融合降水反演、降水统计降尺度、降水时间拆分等技术构建了国家级格点化定量降水预报系统。该系统结构合理,模块功能明确,于2014年6月在国家气象中心投入业务使用,生成0~168 h时效,10 km分辨率,逐3 h的格点化定量降水预报产品。通过对2015年第13号热带气旋苏迪罗的格点化降水预报个例检验,结果显示,相比欧洲中期数值预报中心的确定性模式预报和预报员主观预报,该产品能更好地体现台风降水的时空精细化分布特点,对福建东北部和浙江东南部的特大暴雨中心位置表现更准确细致。通过对2015年4—9月的格点化产品整体效果检验,结果显示,相比欧洲中期数值预报中心的确定性模式预报和由反距离客观分析后的预报员主观预报,该产品既能保持和预报员主观预报相同的准确率,同时也能较明显地提高降水预报的时空精细化程度。  相似文献   

天绘一号03星三线阵/多光谱载荷影像质量评价     

孙韬  王鹏波  方俊永  刘保成  程家胜 《遥感学报》2016,20(6):1335-1341

2015年10月26号发射的天绘一号03星是中国传输型立体测绘卫星天绘一号系列的第3颗卫星。三线阵和多光谱影像数据是天绘一号卫星的重要数据,用于立体测绘、彩色融合、遥感观测等多种用途。因此,为了推动天绘一号03卫星影像数据早日为相关领域提供服务,本文采用客观评价的方法,对天绘一号03星的三线阵和多光谱影像质量进行了全面的评价分析。评价结果显示(天绘一号)03星的清晰度、对比度、细节能量、边缘能量、功率谱、信息容量指标值远高于天绘一号01、02星。说明天绘一号03星三线阵/多光谱影像在地物细节和边缘纹理特征的描述上优于天绘一号01、02星,同时载荷接收的信息量远高于天绘一号01、02星。天绘一号03星较高的信噪比指标说明其载荷抑制噪声的能力优于天绘一号01、02星。边缘辐射畸变和增益调整畸变表明在辐射均匀程度上,天绘一号03星三线阵/多光谱影像介于天绘一号01和02星之间。因此,与同类天绘一号01,02星的三线阵与多光谱影像相比,天绘一号03星影像质量有着显著的提高。  相似文献   

基于客观分析的多源卫星叶绿素a浓度产品融合方法研究     

施英妮  张亭禄  石立坚  胡晓华  南明星 《海洋学报》2016,38(3):82-87

本文基于Aqua/MODIS、Terra/MODIS和Envisat/MERIS多源卫星叶绿素a浓度产品,研究了客观分析融合方法,制作了西北太平洋海域(0°~50°N,100°~150°E)叶绿素a浓度融合产品,并从有效数据空间覆盖率和产品精度两个方面对融合方法进行了评价。与单传感器以及欧洲太空局发布的GSM模型业务化融合产品相比,客观分析融合产品空间覆盖率明显提高;与收集的2002-2012年间叶绿素a浓度实测数据比较,GSM模型业务化融合产品的匹配数据点为578个,偏差为-0.20 mg/m3,均方根误差为0.37 mg/m3,客观分析法融合产品的匹配数据点为1432个,偏差为-0.21 mg/m3,均方根误差为0.36 mg/m3。结果表明:本文研究的客观分析融合方法在保证融合产品精度的同时可显著提高产品的空间覆盖率,在海洋水色融合应用前景广阔。  相似文献   

基于变分客观分析方法的青藏高原试验区夏季对流降水过程热动力特征分析     

庞紫豪  王东海  姜晓玲  张明华 《大气科学》2019,43(3):511-524

本文利用基于变分客观分析方法的物理协调大气分析模型,构建了青藏高原试验区大气热力—动力相互协调的数据集,并通过该数据集对青藏高原试验区夏季深厚及浅薄对流降水过程的热动力特征进行分析,结果表明:变分客观分析后的垂直速度场能更好地与实际观测的对流降水过程相吻合;深厚对流降水期高云含量多,整层大气为较强的上升运动,上升运动可达100 hPa左右,浅薄期高云含量少,上升运动仅能延伸到300 hPa左右;两种对流降水过程中视热源Q₁在低层为冷却作用,高层为加热作用,在深厚期中高层Q₁存在两个加热中心,中层受较强的水汽凝结释放潜热加热所影响,高层主要受过冷云水凝结成冰晶形成高云时释放的热量所影响;在浅薄期中高层Q₁只存在一个加热中心,大气的加热主要来源于水汽的凝结潜热释放;深厚对流降水期视水汽汇Q₂的加热作用可以延伸到200 hPa,而浅薄期仅到340 hPa左右。  相似文献   

基于Barnes滤波原理的降水场客观分析及尺度分离   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

毛文书  彭骏  周强  张群  苏亚麒 《成都信息工程学院学报》2008,23(6):668-672

基于Barnes滤波原理（又称高斯加权客观分析）,在进行网格点插值的同时,通过选择适当的滤波参数C、G滤去原始场中的短波噪音,使分析结果平稳光滑;另外可通过它构成一带通滤波器,根据实际需要分离出影响天气过程的各种次天气尺度,达到尺度分离的目的。以全国160个国家基准代表站1954—2006年共53a的年平均降水场为例作实例分析,并同用Grads内插函数（Oacres函数）、九点平滑函数（Smth9函数）的绘图结果进行对比分析,结果表明客观分析结果同Grads内插平滑分析结果基本相似,都能反映出我国53a年平均降水场从东南向西北逐渐递减的趋势且与实际情况相符,降水场高值中心位于长江流域及以南的华南等地区,低值中心位于黄河流域以北的广大西部地区。取不同的参数C和G得到的尺度分离后的带通滤波值,既抑止了长波,又抑制了短波,达到较好的尺度分离效果。  相似文献   

Water Cooperation Priorities in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin Based on Cooperative Events Since the Mekong River Commission Establishment     

FENG Yan  WANG Wenling  SUMAN Daniel  YU Shiwei  HE Daming 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2019,(1):58-69

The Lancang-Mekong River has attracted much attention from researchers, but the cooperation on water issues in this river basin has been limited, even after the establishment of the Mekong River Commission(MRC). Cooperation on water resources has been determined as one of the key priority areas in the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation Mechanism, but there are no details of targets. In order to establish the priorities of water cooperation under the mechanism, we adopted nine categories to classify the objectives of 87 water cooperation events based on the ‘Lancang-Mekong Water Cooperative Events Database' from 1995 to 2015. Based on the occurrence of cooperative events, cooperative objectives, cooperative scales, and approaches to cooperation, we conducted statistical, correlation, and text analyses. Our analyses indicated the following results: under the impact of economic conditions inside and outside the river basin, full cooperation appeared more difficult than bilateral and multilateral cooperation. Each of the partners adopted different preferences for cooperation targets. Cooperation with more definite objectives was easier to establish than cooperation with broader and more complex objectives. The potential objectives for water cooperation were navigation, hydropower, joint management, data sharing, flood control and water use. Because hydropower development is controversial, and because water cooperation is avoided by most existing regional cooperation mechanisms due to its complexity, we suggest the following priority areas for water cooperation in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin. 1) Navigation and flood control/drought relief are attractive objectives for all the riparian countries across the whole watershed. 2) Data sharing should be a priority for cooperation in the watershed due to its laying the foundation for the equitable and reasonable utilization of transboundary waters. 3) Hydropower is an objective best implemented mainly through bilateral cooperation, and on tributaries.  相似文献   

滇西北高原强对流天气客观物理量特征分析     

和卫东  赖云华  苏晓力 《气象科技》2014,42(1):125-130

应用MICAPS客观物理量资料,对丽江市2006—2011年82次强对流天气进行诊断分析。结果表明,强对流天气发生前,水汽大多处于高湿或中等湿度状态,一般暴雨时700hPa比湿大于等于9g/kg,冰雹时大于等于6g/kg,或700hPa相对湿度暴雨时大于等于80%,冰雹时大于等于60%;热力状况大多处于高温、高热、高能和对流不稳定状态,部分在川滇间有明显的能量锋存在,特别是暴雨,一般沙氏指数SI小于等于0℃、K指数大于等于35℃、丽江假相当位温θse大于等于68℃,丽江与西昌或成都间的θse差大于等于10℃;动力条件则大多表现为低层正涡度,高层负涡度的有利配置,部分中高层有明显的冷平流,特别是冰雹时,一般700hPa涡度大于等于0×10-5s-1,300hPa以上任一层涡度小于等于-30×10-5s-1,或700hPa层以上任一层温度平流小于等于-1×10-5℃·s-1。  相似文献   

Reevaluation of historical ocean heat content variations with time-varying XBT and MBT depth bias corrections   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

Masayoshi Ishii  Masahide Kimoto 《Journal of Oceanography》2009,65(3):287-299

As reported in former studies, temperature observations obtained by expendable bathythermographs (XBTs) and mechanical bathythermographs (MBTs) appear to have positive biases as much as they affect major climate signals. These biases have not been fully taken into account in previous ocean temperature analyses, which have been widely used to detect global warming signals in the oceans. This report proposes a methodology for directly eliminating the biases from the XBT and MBT observations. In the case of XBT observation, assuming that the positive temperature biases mainly originate from greater depths given by conventional XBT fall-rate equations than the truth, a depth bias equation is constructed by fitting depth differences between XBT data and more accurate oceanographic observations to a linear equation of elapsed time. Such depth bias equations are introduced separately for each year and for each probe type. Uncertainty in the gradient of the linear equation is evaluated using a non-parametric test. The typical depth bias is +10 m at 700 m depth on average, which is probably caused by various indeterminable sources of error in the XBT observations as well as a lack of representativeness in the fall-rate equations adopted so far. Depth biases in MBT are fitted to quadratic equations of depth in a similar manner to the XBT method. Correcting the historical XBT and MBT depth biases by these equations allows a historical ocean temperature analysis to be conducted. In comparison with the previous temperature analysis, large differences are found in the present analysis as follows: the duration of large ocean heat content in the 1970s shortens dramatically, and recent ocean cooling becomes insignificant. The result is also in better agreement with tide gauge observations. On leave from the Meteorological Research Institute of the Japan Meteorological Agency.  相似文献