气候系统翻转点的早期预警方法研究     

梅莹  万仕全  谢孝强  顾斌  何文平 《气象科学》2021,41(6):772-779

针对气候系统的非线性特征导致预测/预警气候突变困难的问题,本文从气候系统的长程相关性出发,利用零维气候模型和两个折叠模型,研究了在一个动力系统缓慢趋近其临界翻转点的过程中,系统的长程相关是否有某种一般性变化规律。结果显示,3个不同分岔模型在趋近其自身临界翻转点的过程中,表征系统长程相关性的Hurst指数均呈持续增大趋势(显著性水平α=0.05),表明监测和检测气候系统长程相关性的变化可为气候系统翻转点的预警提供有利信息。  相似文献   

作业调度软件LoadLeveler在气象模式中的应用     

张明  杨效  邹丽  唐艳娟  张燕 《气象科技》2021,49(1):63-68

西北区域气象中心高性能计算集群使用LoadLeveler调度管理作业,为实现资源利用率和吞吐量的最大化,本文探讨了作业调度管理的作用和方法.通过配置文件关键字定义队列、设置调度算法和调度器调节参数,将作业的处理需求与可用资源进行匹配,依据实际需求定义集群和各种资源的可用性规则,防止作业之间的相互干扰.结合LoadLev...  相似文献   

1997～1998年伽师强震群小地震震源机制解系统聚类分析     

龙海英  高国英  聂晓红 《内陆地震》2006,20(4):330-335

用P、S波最大振幅比法计算1997~1998年伽师强震群MS2.5~3.7小地震震源机制解,对小地震震源机制解进行系统聚类分析。结果表明,伽师小地震主要以走滑和正断层为主,与该时段发生的伽师6级强震具有相似的断错性质。1997年伽师小地震主压应力P轴方位为北东或近南北向,与1997~1998年6级强震主压应力P轴方位一致。1997年4月6日6.4级和1998年8月2日6.1级两次6级正断层地震前出现地震空段现象。  相似文献   

环境因子对浮游甲壳动物群落功能多样性的影响     

王松波  史昭锦  耿红  吴来燕  曹艳敏 《湖泊科学》2021,33(4):1220-1229

基于功能性状的生物多样性分析是当前生态学研究中的常用方法之一.浮游动物作为水生态系统食物网的重要组成成分,其功能多样性受关注的程度远不如其重要性.本文通过对14个水体浮游甲壳动物群落结构的研究,分析了环境因子对其功能多样性指数,包括功能丰富度(FRic)、功能均匀度(FEve)、功能离散度(FDiv)和功能分散度(FD...  相似文献   

Nonlinear coupled analysis of a single point mooring system     

WANG Junrong LI Huajun LI Ping ZHOU Kai 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2007,6(3):310-314

Coupled effects on a single point mooring(SPM) system subjected to the combined action of wind,waves and current are studied in this paper. Due to the complicatedness of the sea state and the huge size of the vessel,physical experimental study is both time consuming and uneconomical,whereas the numerical study is cost-effective and DNV software provides powerful SESAM software in solving the issues. This paper focuses on the modeling process of the SPM system,catenary equilibrium calculation,static analysis of the vessel in three different scenarios,and dynamic response simulation of the SPM system under environmental excitations. The three scenarios in study are as follows:the SPM is under the combined function of(a) wind,waves and current,(b) wind and waves,(c) current and waves. They are so set that one can compare the contributions of different types of loads in both static and dynamic studies. Numerical study shows that wind and current are the two major factors contributing to the mooring line tension,and surge and sway are the two dominant motions of the moored vessel subjected to environmental excitations.  相似文献   

复杂环境下基于GPS+BDS-3的PPP/INS/ODO组合导航性能分析     

张辉  余容  赵健  陈雨然 《大地测量与地球动力学》2022,42(3):275-280

针对复杂环境下单一导航定位技术存在精度低、可靠性和完整性差的问题,提出一种GPS+BDS-3的PPP/INS/ODO组合导航方案。采用GPS+BDS-3双系统观测数据,推导无电离层组合PPP模型,进一步给出PPP/INS/ODO组合模型并分析时间异步及杆臂误差的处理策略,结合里程计测速信息和非完整性约束信息,提高组合导航的定位性能。利用仿动态和动态跑车实测数据,分别对GPS+BDS-3无电离层组合PPP的定位性能和PPP/INS/ODO组合导航的定位性能进行分析。实验结果表明,GPS+BDS-3组合定位精度较单系统有显著提高;PPP/INS/ODO组合系统在复杂环境下位置的RMSE优于1 m,可为复杂环境下的车载导航提供技术支撑。  相似文献   

广州市CORS系统的精度分析和应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

王齐林 《全球定位系统》2007,32(5):39-41

采用虚拟参考站技术,结合应用广州市似大地水准面精化成果;对系统进行了精度分析,并以实例说明该系统实现了实时三维城市定位的功能。  相似文献   

基于Ward聚类法的中国业务集合预报系统的产品开发     

金荣花  田伟红  矫梅燕 《气象》2007,33(12):9-15

为开发中国新一代业务集合预报系统的聚类产品,系统地介绍了集合预报技术先进国家的集合预报聚类分析方法,并采用Ward聚类法开发了中国集合预报系统的聚类产品。针对重大天气过程初步分析了中国集合预报系统的聚类产品的业务预报能力。结果表明,Ward聚类法以凝练预报信息和给出发生概率的形式,有效地划分出最有可能出现的环流形势类型,为预报员提供了有价值的预报参考信息,也为科学合理地使用集合预报产品提供方便。  相似文献   

Numerical modelling of stream–aquifer interaction: Quantifying the impact of transient streambed permeability and aquifer heterogeneity          下载免费PDF全文

Dan Zhou  Ye Zhang  Guillaume Gianni  Peter Lichtner  Irina Engelhardt 《水文研究》2018,32(14):2279-2292

Stream–aquifer interaction plays a vital role in the water cycle, and a proper study of this interaction is needed for understanding groundwater recharge, contaminants migration, and for managing surface water and groundwater resources. A model‐based investigation of a field experiment in a riparian zone of the Schwarzbach river, a tributary of the Rhine River in Germany, was conducted to understand stream–aquifer interaction under alternative gaining and losing streamflow conditions. An equivalent streambed permeability, estimated by inverting aquifer responses to flood waves, shows that streambed permeability increased during infiltration of stream water to aquifer and decreased during exfiltration. Aquifer permeability realizations generated by multiple‐point geostatistics exhibit a high degree of heterogeneity and anisotropy. A coupled surface water groundwater flow model was developed incorporating the time‐varying streambed permeability and heterogeneous aquifer permeability realizations. The model was able to reproduce varying pressure heads at two observation wells near the stream over a period of 55 days. A Monte Carlo analysis was also carried out to simulate groundwater flow, its age distribution, and the release of a hypothetical wastewater plume into the aquifer from the stream. Results of this uncertainty analysis suggest (a) stream–aquifer exchange flux during the infiltration periods was constrained by aquifer permeability; (b) during exfiltration, this flux was constrained by the reduced streambed permeability; (c) the effect of temporally variable streambed permeability and aquifer heterogeneity were found important to improve the accurate capture of the uncertainty; and (d) probabilistic infiltration paths in the aquifer reveal that such pathways and the associated prediction of the extent of the contaminant plume are highly dependent on aquifer heterogeneity.  相似文献   

基于点面关系构建的线基元点云配准算法     

柴双武  杨晓琴 《大地测量与地球动力学》2020,40(4):405-410

针对传统的点特征点云配准算法不能解决缺失同名点的配准问题,从点在平面上的几何关系出发,利用具有较强几何约束能力的直线特征,推导出基于单位四元数表征的无需同名直线端点完全对应的点云配准模型。结果表明,该模型不仅能够同步求解配准参数,还适用于大旋转角的配准问题,同时降低了配准模型对参数初值的要求,增强了配准模型的稳定性和实用性。  相似文献